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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    Seems Kirilloff owns 1B v. RH pitching, so maybe 70-75% of games. That leaves 150-180 AB’s minimum for Santana at 1B. Also, he seems to be the probable DH when Buxton plays OF so Castro can be ready in a flex role off the bench as needed……,another 150-180 AB’s. Pinch hitting - some starts for rest……he may pick up another 60-80 AB’s. 350-400 AB’s and that’s with perfect health with Kirilloff……maybe more? Hoping for 15 HR and some good 1B play. Good clubhouse guy as well! Nice pick up to mitigate the risk with Miranda.
  2. JD-TWINS
    It seems that there’s room for improvement with Festa but he just doesn’t have 3 pitches - they All grade out toward Plus pitches…….that’s my assumption of a difference.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Gallo hit poorly for sure - tough to justify, but he was a professional with experience and had the ability to play 4 positions as others healed & he posted whenever needed. There’s value in the lack of disruption & worry amongst the team - a real value. Gordon is a cheerleader type. - Totally Agree though, guys gotta perform & then the intangibles can be factored into their value.
  4. JD-TWINS
    Correct - gotta be able to add value between the lines - no charity on the 26 man! Santana v. taking a risk with Miranda for 1st, quality of play & then, secondarily, experience & leadership tips it to Santana.
  5. JD-TWINS
    Sounds like Sgt Hulka………..
  6. JD-TWINS
    He can’t hit anymore so I think that’s the Yankees real rub with him!…?!?
  7. JD-TWINS
    Hoping they still pick up an arm! If they do that, it’s reasonable to have Varland, DeSclafani, & Paddack all in the same roll. Fill the 5th starter spot & throw in 2-3 inning relief spots. Paddack & Varland are sure effective in short burts.
  8. JD-TWINS
    Pablo seems to have an advantage on the #1 spot based on last year’s results……..am hoping he’s challenged by Montgomery after Twins sign him. Fingers crossed.
  9. JD-TWINS
    Ober threw approximately 4-5 starts (around 21 innings) in St Paul so those innings, with similar results to the 144 would get him awfully close to the 3.3 WAR posted by Lopez. Good supposed #3 guy!!
  10. JD-TWINS
    Thompson for sure……..he’s fast………seems to be his top attribute, maybe only attribute? Staumont - Duarte are the only potential options to release……….Duarte has been with team for a week, so I think he’ll probably get exposed to other clubs. Maybe other clubs roster spots are or have filled & they can hang on to Duarte?
  11. JD-TWINS
    The Tigers traded Lorenzen at the deadline & lost Rodriguez to free agency. They were replaced by Maeda & Flaherty……..certainly not a net gain there. They have 2-3 pretty good young guys that are on the come. Twins were 14-5 against the last 4 teams standing last year. Astros - Rangers - Diamondbacks - Phillies. Gray’s starts in ‘23, the Team was 15-18. Those were the real outcomes that they need to match or better in ‘24. ERA is great - quality starts are great - they both definitely give a team a better chance to win! However, between Varland/Festa/DeSclafani slotted in #5 spot, they have a very good chance at going .500 in a combined 36 starts……fair? Gray picked a guy off 2nd on a terrible base running play by Guerrero to escape a jam. He threw 5 innings for the W. His start v. Astros was sub par. ……….fair? Paddack needs to be good & needs to hold up. …….if there’s an issue they’ll have to make a move for an arm at the deadline. Am still holding out some hope for a pitching move over the next 4-5 weeks. Any reasonable health from Buxton (100 games between CF & DH) a mild rebound from Correa (.265 BA & 20 HR) the 3 young guys at 2B - 3B - LF available from the season’s start all point to a much better offensive year. Am assuming Kepler & Vazquez will be hitting above .220 at mid-season in ‘24…..this will help as well. Gotta be a top 6 team in the AL……..can’t control where we sit in the NL. Have potential to win the Pennant with one Starter addition to the Staff.
  12. JD-TWINS
    Not too many trades for a $35M SS with 5 years left on contract, coming off his worst season at the plate. SF & Mets already turned him away & nobody outbid the Twins just 12 months ago when he hit .290 the previous season……..He’s all ours! IMO, Lewis goes to 1B & Kirilloff to LF so Lee can play 3B ……OR Lewis goes to LF & Kirilloff stays at 1B. Lee-Lewis-Kirilloff-Julien all need to be in line-up by the Playoffs or worst case by Opening Day ‘25. Gotta assume either Buxton or Santana will be slated at DH this season, so that’s probably not an open slot for those 4 guys. Dont understand the WAR concern, if the guy isn’t in the line-up regularly, regardless of where he plays, his WAR isn’t budging. So, either we play the best guys to maximize offensive WAR for all individuals concerned and live with whoever gets the Defensive WAR credit…………it’s about scoring more runs than opponents and winning games, not maximizing a specific player’s WAR & associated value.
  13. JD-TWINS
    Twins moved $10.5M with Polanco deal - & took on $18.25M between ($1M/$12M/$5.25M) Topa/DeSclafani/Santana …….received $8M from Seattle……….essentially a draw and we have 3 players v. Polanco. …….correct?
  14. JD-TWINS
    $138M source??? Cody says it in paragraph 4 above & Jon Becker says it in a tweet above………just assuming that between them they are at least close. Is Witt getting $$ this year that may not be in your total yet?
  15. JD-TWINS
    The Royals spent $92.5M in ‘23 & had Zack Grienke in their rotation last year…..that’s embarrassing. They have a great young guy that they need to push into Stardom locally for fan interest, they invested, and they brought in $45M in OK Free Agents to help. They’ve elevated to $138.5M & with some fiscal uncertainty the Twins have gone from $154M back to $124M as of today…………one signing or trade over next 5 weeks & our roster is even more superior. I don’t think spending randomly when you have a solid roster makes sense. Doubt that the FO is on vacation after the Santana signing.
  16. JD-TWINS
    They got better and more stable with Lugo - Wacha - Smith on their staff………they have the kid they got from Texas, he’s apparently top of rotation talent. Pitching is the start - Bobby Witt can’t score 4 runs a game but they’re better. Agree!!…………Hunter Renfroe & Adam Frazier aren’t going to propel them to the Division title.
  17. JD-TWINS
    It’s February 5th…….not in favor of trading our roster for their’s I assume? Just signed Correa for $35M per year 12 months ago……..,we’ll have to pay Lewis - Jeffers - etc. - etc., numerous pitchers, over the next 2-5 years. Still have an opportunity to solidify the Staff before the end of Spring Training. Everyone needs to calm down.
  18. JD-TWINS
    Gotta ACT!…………..or it will be……….”couldn’t get anything done” because other Teams wanted too high a price in trades. He’s the best FA available if Montgomery can’t be signed - right?
  19. JD-TWINS
    Snell’s ask is 9 years at $30M….. not 1 year at $30M. He turned down 6 years at $30M from Yankees. Montgomery’s ask is $25M for 6 years …….these statements have been published. ………………… I’d like to try and sign Montgomery for 5 years at $26M and let him have option after 3 years. Gives him security & independence later in the deal. Worst case, Clevinger for 2 years at $16M to stabilize the Staff.
  20. JD-TWINS
    Just saw that on Athletic’s “All-underrated Team” that Max is in RF & Jeffers is behind the plate……….view from a theoretical Outside Source. Nice to see - fingers crossed.
  21. JD-TWINS
    Am on similar page - Lee’s best spot has been openly discussed as 3B. Lewis is better athlete. Seems that physically, 3B is more demanding. To get the BATS in the line-up going forward, to me, Lewis in LF & Wallner in RF could stand up for 5 years starting in ‘25 at the latest. If Kepler is moved & Wallner assumes RF, Team can piece together LF with Gordon/Larnach/Martin/Castro for 2-3 months until Lee might be ready. $10M of Max’s salary goes a long way in signing a pitcher!
  22. JD-TWINS
    Turning down the qualifying offer, to me, would be crazy for Max. Almost as bad as offering it to a 32 year old, with OF guys in the Wings. If he hits .275 or better with 22 HR he probably gets an offer from the Twins for a couple years at $15-$16M/yr.
  23. JD-TWINS
    Gallo could play 4 positions and hit 40+ HR previously……..in hindsight, yes, Max is a better value for sure. ….. If he’s CONSISTENT within the norms of baseball, at a reasonable level, I could see extending 2 years but more than that & he should probably be freed to pursue other teams. Wanted him gone in May/June &!into July in ‘23!! He seems to have found something in his approach with a more aggressive swing and approach. Great results for 11-12 weeks. Gotta see what he does this spring and see if he can duplicate somewhat.
  24. JD-TWINS
    About 150 - 250 AB’s in St. Paul & then, if positive, there may be a spot. If the Team’s not thriving in July, Kepler would probably get moved then, if he’s not terrible or great. Am assuming being, at least competitive is a given. Larnach has a hard time out of Spring Training with option left because he can’t play CF & Gordon/Martin both can. Buxton/Castro is the starting CF early but how long can Buxton go out there and how much flexibility do they lose if Castro “has to play CF” every day?
  25. JD-TWINS
    A full season of last year’s second half forces him to “explore the market” .850 OPS & 30 XBH at over .300 BA. He’d be in the top 5 RF in the game………Tucker - Soto - Tatis - couple other guys & then Kepler. Probably going to have to extend by watching Spring Training results, or it’s a toss of the coin for both sides and see where everybody’s at by the end of October.
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