JD-TWINS

Looking forward to a potentially even more effective Jax!! He’s already pretty good over past 2 seasons. Okert - Staumont, even Jensen & undoubtedly, Funderburk can help Team get to Jax & Stewart with a tightened up approach…….should be fun to watch.

I don’t have any data on the decline of the Sport’s Popularity……don’t know if that’s real or presumed? I hear talks of expansion into new cities. Seems to me lots of people still going to ballparks all over the country, particularly if there is a winning product on the field. ………an opinion and not necessarily fact, is that TV revenues are down due to inability to harness how the Product is viewed. Therefore ad $$ don’t make as much sense to spend on network televised games. Just a thought. I sure hope the Team doesn’t go to the extremes that the Rays & Baltimore have gone. If they do we’ll need a Program with player’s names to watch the team from year to year due to almost no continuity nor polished veterans. Twins should draw 2 million this year with reasonable success. That, along with some 50% split of their TV $$$, big revenue share $$$ from MLB and revenues seem fairly strong, at least to me. Platoons make perfect sense offensively and flexible defensive guys are valuable as well. Inexpensive bullpen pieces are a great way to be effective and keep costs down……the organization should be applauded. Guys like Ober - Festa - Julien are well scouted and developed lower draft picks…….again, well done by organization! My recollection is we pulled off a “Ray’s trade” with the Rays when sending Cruz & acquiring Ryan. Not sure that the Ray’s are so much ahead of everyone with their approach - they have shrewd guys running things and I honestly believe the Twins F.O. - despite some mistakes/misfortune - are doing a really solid job with F.A. within budget constraints and with the youth coming through the system. The recent Polanco trade may not work out but on paper …..Topa with the Top 76 prospect OF is a good move for a declining 2B making $10.5M. DeSclafani and other prospect were throw-ins. If the organization can stay between #15-#19 in spending, per recent years, they should remain competitive, ongoing.

Not really sure why many discuss Kepler playing other OF positions? This article makes it pretty clear…….Kepler is #2 among all RF in the game over the past 5 seasons for FanGraphs defensive value!! Zero valid reason from moving him away from that kind of success! Last June I was screaming at the TV occasionally when watching Kepler at the plate. DFA was seriously a reasonable move many days. The guy turned it around more in the last 3 months than any player I’ve ever seen. …….he, Corey Seager, and 3 others in the game hit .300 plus and had 30 XBH in the 2nd half last year. Lofty company! If he can just stay within 40-50 points of his 2nd half average of .305 he’ll be very productive once again. If he hits .250 plus he’ll run into 20 doubles & 20 HR. Could be on his way to another 2.5-3.0 WAR season. That coupled with upside of Correa/Buxton/youth, the offense looks solid. It would be nice to see his output be a bit more consistent in ‘24. Let’s hope. I agree that Wallner is the answer in RF going forward both from a talent standpoint and a budgetary standpoint as well. Don’t see how Kepler gets us any compensation as he becomes an FA unless he’s offered $21M and he turns it down……..neither of those things will happen.

The guy hit .270 with a .348 OBP & 117 OPS+ in ‘23. He doesn’t need options. Hitting well v. RH pitching, primarily, isn’t unique to Kirilloff as a Left Handed bat. The Athletic did a Twins specific article couple weeks ago on the history of prominent Twins LH hitters. Oliva .690 OPS v. LH. Carew, only guy above .800 OPS v. LH pitching. Hrbek & Koskie were both around .775 or so. Bottom line was that due to how many left handed pitchers a LH faces as they develop (not many) they do not fare well as a rule………not a Wallner issue - not a Julien issue - not a Kirilloff issue. He’s a Professional Athlete - he needs to excel at whatever the Team asks him to do. If they want him to play 1B in September, he’s got 5 1/2 months to get ready. Personally, I think he starts 80 games at 1B………..Buxton at DH & Kirilloff at 1B is a better approach offensively v. RH pitching!

Do not understand the issue with signing Santana? He’s a perfect platoon guy with Kirilloff. He’s a very good defender at 1B……good enough for late inning defensive replacement. He’s not expensive. 300 plus career HR’s with 23 last year. It’s a one and done signing. ……..Kirilloff can’t “practice” 1B during games…….he’s got to work at it for hours on the side just like Julien has and continues to do. Hopefully, Santana can tutor him a bit as well. I see Kirilloff as part of the Twins at 1B for another 3-4 years.

1st paragraph - check! A call up seems to be a real stretch though……unless Santana, specifically, gets hurt I can’t imagine Miranda in ‘24. Not to doom him, Santana hasn’t missed extended time since 2014.

Not really sure DeSclafani will pitch for Twins EVER at this point. His history suggests maybe not. Varland is the 5th starter if nothing else by default. However, he’s given up zero runs in 11 plus innings this Spring……….seems he’s earned the spot as well. Really don’t understand all the comments about skipping a fifth starter often and Varland going up & down to “keep him active” in April. The TWINS SCHEDULE can’t be so unique that they are the only club in baseball to not have a fifth starter for most of a month! Everyone is concerned about innings totals with at least Ober & Paddack and we aren’t going to have a fifth starter in April because “they might get 5 or 6 days between starts” - do not get the logic nor concern. Obviously, if DeSclafani is healthy by May 1 they probably need to give him a shot to help stretch everyone’s innings. Varland can go up & down so he’s the logical fluid guy. To me, Louie is in rotation for sure on March 28 and there at least a month……….what happens if Varland is 3-1 with a 3.75 ERA through April??? DeSclafani to the 60 day from the 10 day has to be a 50/50 chance at this point. His innings help just as well mid-June through August IMO.

Encouraged - yes. Contact & base hits are always a good thing. Analyzing every base hit is tedious & fortune is part of a good average. He needs to at least be a doubles hitter with occasional power to play either corner infield spot for very long. Somewhat of a RH hitting Kirilloff? He has to play better 1B & that will be a big part of AAA games/development this year. My assumption is that the club will play him at 3B nearly 25% of the time or more just to keep trade value (versatility) higher. With a good season he may be the other side of a platoon at 1B with Kirilloff in ‘25? I think he gets traded as a depth guy for another organization. It seems to me the next few years of the Twin’s rosters will have higher expectations.

Doubt they’ll have a guy up & down if he’s the 5th starter……..he can work on the side to stay sharp. Also, Ober went to St Paul to start the year because Mahle was in the rotation……he was the “6th guy” at that point, until Mahle got hurt.

Unaware - OK. Honest question here, do they still lose a year of control if they bring Lee or anyone up too early in the season - seems this used to be an issue? Seems if they left a guy down for 2-3 weeks this/that year didn’t start the clock.

How/Why does ROY play into roster decisions? Teams aren’t trying to win guys a ROY award.

Respectfully disagree. Farmer was the starting SS just 13 months ago……he would step in for Correa, IMO. Castro would see more time in the infield as needed, along with OF duties. Martin would play infield and outfield as needed. Lee has to HIT at AAA before he gets brought up. He needs the confidence and the Team needs confidence that he’s ready on offense before playing him regularly in the Show. I think you are overestimating his hitting to date in the minors.

I think DeSclafani’s discomfort comes back, real or suggested, and he’s on IL for longer term. Not sure if the rules ………..assuming there’s a way to get between 10 days & 60 days.?

Good point - out for a month after being hit in the face - still played in 120 games……..btw, Team was 70-50 in games Farmer played. Best on team……….probably a little skewed due to late inning defense, but still impressive.

ROY, as we know, doesn’t play into anything relative to roster decisions. Lee has been good not great, as you state. That’s pretty clear! At least 2 infielders would need to be hurt for the organization to consider calling up Lee any time soon. You are absolutely right that the depth at 2B is 3 deep & all ahead of Lee. Martin actually has a better shot in the near-term. because of his ability to add depth in the grass as well.

Not sure how the “want” gets lost because the Team wants you to DH? They are paying Santana $5.5M and he’s a league wide superior 1B, not just “better than Kirilloff”……so they want him to play more than just 40 games v. LH starters………Kirilloff needs to be healthy - that’s an issue. 117 OPS+ & .348 OBP is very productive! I still think Kirilloff starts 80-90 games at 1B and Santana is a defensive replacement in late innings with a lead in hand…….similar to Farmer at 2B.

117 OPS+ - .270 BA - .348 OBP in ‘23 and not healthy with shoulder issues from mid-July & after…..,,I’ll take good, not great, from every guy on the roster. ……IMO, they will not live with Santana’s bat from the left side very often. He’s a good RH hitter and a sub-par LH hitter………..if they gave Julien a chance at 2B with his initial defense, they’ll give Kirilloff more chances at 1B if he’s hitting. Buxton will DH 40-50 games, IMO……Kirilloff maybe 30-40 games?…….that leaves 80 starts at 1B v. RH pitching. Maybe 8-10 games in LF.

Mathews looks interesting - big frame. Not much info on pitch mix…….looks like he could develop. Another, under the radar circumstance is that Louie Varland is the 5th starter, period, - right? DeSclafani hasn’t thrown an inning this Spring to my knowledge? 12-13 days til they head north to K.C. …………Varland has to be the 5th guy. He threw 4 innings Tuesday and gave up 1 hit - 4K’s - no runs. Get it’s only Spring Training, but couldn’t be much better.

It is meaningful if you aren’t sensitive……it’s not about Sonny Gray it’s about winning games. Gray had it tough due to mediocre run support & typically going up against the other teams Top pitcher. So Team doesn’t need to replace Gray’s innings with one guy nor do they need to be anywhere near his ERA in those innings to be successful. The Team needs to be competitive in the 32-33 starts that Gray would have made. It’s about ‘24 & not feeling bad because a guy didn’t get better breaks last year. The Team doesn’t red a 2.79 ERA starter. The team won’t miss a 2.79 ERA starter IF they are competitive and win half of those 32 starts. Better offense (a bit) and better Pen top to bottom doesn’t replace the starter but it should help win games.

Not trading, as you stated twice, any potential star prospect to a team in the Central Division & nobody is trading a difference making arm to the Twins from inside the Division. Gotta talk about something. Lewis isn’t getting traded for anyone at any point in time. Jenkins either……as you know. Julien could be an average defensive 2B with .350 plus OBP potential every year……with 20 HR power. Those guys are not easy to find …….he’s cheap for foreseeable future. Staying put! It would take Lee plus a couple additional guys…….for a 2 year rental. Can’t do it - Festa & SWR can eat 125 total innings this year. If he succeeds his price is out of our range. If he doesn’t succeed it’s a real bummer. Sands - Headrick - Cory Lewis - E. Rodriguez - Miranda…………gotta consider that on both sides. 3 arms & potential that any 2 could hit ……..1 or 2 could help this year or next year……..Lewis in another 2 years. Rodriguez & Miranda provide opportunity for everyday player for years to come.

Castro had a 106 OPS+ ……period. .257 BA - 32 XBH - 33 steals - 6 positions potentially……124 games. Good speed & good arm! He’s going to turn 27 in a month. I don’t care what he did with the Tigers any more than I care what Nikko Goodrum did with the Tigers. How did they do in ‘23? Castro can play CF for 80 games if needed.

Author’s expectations are FINALLY reasonable for Buxton. I put his CF starts down to around 65 maximum from your 75. I increase the total games to 115 from your 100. No trying to steal 20-30 bases as I’ve seen suggested here more than once. The stigma that he can’t hit from the DH spot is ridiculous …….’23 proved he can’t DH if his legs aren’t working. Him and about 1400 other MLB players. If he can get his average up to .235-.240 minimum, the other numbers will all fall into place (K’s - XBH - HR - OPS+) The goal is healthy and able to start at least 50% of post season games in CF - gotta all agree on that being a successful year!

Good news is Wallner - Kirilloff - Jeffers - Julien - Lewis - Castro all had their best years last year!!! …….If 4 of the 6 repeat or better their numbers & if CC - Buxton - Kepler - Santana - Vazquez - Farmer are average, things are looking up!

Shift ban didn’t change 50 games into the season - his approach to make loud contact v. protective contact is what changed. He was one of 5 guys in the entire game to have 30XBH & hit over .300 for the 2nd half. That’s very impressive!!! I expect a better start & not as good in 2nd half, with similar totals for the season as a whole. Fingers crossed.

Ryan got 3-4 guys on K’s Tuesday with something moving downward. This is big because it allows him to miss more in the zone with his fastball, if he has a sinker off his fastball motion it keeps guys much more honest……… He’s thrown fastballs so often that guys can go up & just sit on that pitch. If he doesn’t elevate it to just “in” or just “out” of the top of the zone, it gets hammered. Fastball riding high - Sweeper right to left - Split/Change down and right a bit - Sinking fastball is a nice repertoire and the fine line with the “slider in the zone” goes away. Getting rid of your historical mistake pitch is a good thing. Hope he holds up - had his usual, zero emotion swag going on Tuesday!