JD-TWINS

I’m not pushing Max out the door either - one of 5 guys in the game to hit .300 or better with 30 XBH in the 2nd half of ‘23. That’s special! However, if we traded Arraez to get Lopez, something has probably got to give to obtain a really good pitcher. Somebody needs a good RF - that has offensive upside. (ha ha, maybe the Twins) To me, trade DeSclafani (may have to send some $$ along?) - Kepler - our compensatory pick from Gray……… maybe another marginal (Headrick/Winder?) arm for something of value and we shed salary but realize other team is taking on salary……….get back “whoever” of value. Maybe a highly rated prospect even?……………:moving Max’s salary for some value is the real bottom line - for any position - the rest of what Twins trade is just noise. Take the $$ saved and apply it to signing Jordan Montgomery……… Realistic?? I think Wallner goes to RF (obviously) and Lewis to LF ultimately when Lee’s ready to play 3B. In the meantime, piece LF together with Larnach/Gordon/Martin/Castro……. with the latter 3 helping Buxton in CF as well. Martin can come up & down as needed, doubtful he’s in 26 man out of Spring Training. Maybe they wait until deadline and get a probable lesser pitcher and give up more trade assets…………risky, and lower value for a Win Now approach!

Is LF more physically demanding than 3B ……is that the general consensus? Just wondering why other than he got hurt in CF?

Maybe they’ll throw in Tucker as well.

He opted out of a $13M contract so my assumption is $3-$4M increase in HIS mind anyway…….he’d be a nice bat pick-up but I think he’d be squeezing time in with Buxton at DH - Twins don’t seem to like poor OF play - 36 HR per (505 AB’s) year may change their mind? Duvall hit 21 HR in 330 AB’s/92 games…….that works for me with the flexibility to play any of the 3 OF positions……..$9M seems to be a reasonable offer.

Not trying to be obstinate - understand your point. However, Lopez got a bunch better in ‘23 over ‘22. Varland at 26 should have some room for gains. Guys mastering a pitch & getting above where they’ve been in the past with it - this also seems reasonable. Sometimes it’s as simple as pitch mix and sequencing. I’m not using improvement as an excuse not to get another guy - a better guy, but these guys can improve IMO. Look at Pagan in ‘22 & ‘23 as an example.

He isn’t going to play - unless there’s injury - he may play somewhere else? Santana & Kirilloff are cemented at 1B in ‘24. Miranda is in AAA until he shows all he can produce with the bat. Soler may hit 35 HR’s playing bad defense - Miranda is a total crapshoot at this point. His “solid” 2022 was 15 HR in 444 AB’s - good doubles production at 25. .751 OPS. 114OPS+. In ‘23 Soler hit 36 HR in 505 AB’s. .853 OPS. 128 OPS+. I get you aren’t saying Miranda is Soler but they hid Soler at DH quite a bit as well……..gotta really produce if you’re going to give up hits/bases playing LF.

Montgomery would be a dream come true…….probably still need to move DeSclafani & Kepler to make it happen. That’s $14M to contribute to the payroll add with a FA. I’ve been a big proponent to keep Kepler through the year but to get Montgomery, some changes may need to be made. Snell has more Cy Young’s than complete games. Not durable at all! He wants 10 years & $270M. He’s nuts!! Clevinger, to me is an affordable & effective guy for 2 years. Even signing Ryu along with DeSclafani & Varland & Festa could cover #4/#5 slots. Paddack as a big weapon out of the Pen OR flip him with Varland? Seems Varland could handle most innings & Paddack’s experience plays well out of the Pen. Protect his arm this way as well. Canterino - Stewart - Varland/Paddack (1 of them) - Topa - Jax - Thielbar - Funderburk - Duran …………Alcala, Winder, etc. for depth. Being “set” in Spring Training seems a better of the two options v. waiting til the deadline to get stabilized.

I looked it up out of curiosity & it was an odd “exhibition” game at the Met August 9, 1971. Makes more sense than March 30!!!

I was about 8 or 9 & the Giants were playing the Twins at The Met in a pre-season wrap up game (‘70-‘71 or so). Strange location at that time of year! Anyway, my Dad had watched Mays in Minneapolis well before I was born and really respected/loved him as a ball player. He told me the day prior we were going to the game with my older brother. I said “no - I have other plans”. Not a great reply to a blue collar guy that had quit school in ‘35 to start doing man’s work at age 13. My brother (14 years older than me) sat me down & told me what a knucklehead I was being! Next night we saw McCovey - Bonds - Mays……no real recollection of the game or result but I saw those guys on the field, suited up, live. A cool memory we shared.

Was (am) with you on Gordon…,,,Soler, not so much. He eliminates any chance of a pitching addition at $17M & 3 years, and he’s subpar defensively. Buxton has to DH the majority of his starts, even though everyone seems to be fantasizing that he’s the everyday CF for 130 games……..about a 2% chance of that happening. With his history, Buxton has about a 15% chance to appear in 100 games - including DH.

Why would anyone think, based on history, that Miranda can play LF? Never heard that until today. Farmer is slated to play 30 - 40 spot starts v. lefties at 2B - right? Julien can’t play 162 & he’s not very proficient hitting LH pitching at this point. Thought that was a done deal with everyone. Soler is below average OF - wants 3 years - probably close to $17M/year - not a realistic fit. Ultimately, maybe by August 1, I’d like to see Lewis in LF (solves the yearning here for a big RH bat in our outfield) ……….Max traded as part of a deal for an arm………Wallner in RF …………Lee at 3B. Lee - CC - Julien - Kirilloff (Farmer/Santana) Lewis - Buxton/Castro - Wallner (Gordon? Martin? Larnach? - sign Duvall?) Seems Duvall has the salary ask that may make sense ($9M - 1 year) his health is sketchy but could be supplemented on roster by Martin.

33 stolen bases v. 4……..106 OPS+ v. 74 OPS+…….. .257 BA as a switch hitter v. .237 BA……….2.6 WAR v. -.1 WAR. Let’s option Castro today & sign Hernandez………………..a serious topic??

No issue with trading DeSclafani’s salary away for little return to help pay for Montgomery!!

Similar thoughts: 1) Played about as poorly as possible on offense from May 1 - July 20. Actually, not much better in April, just won more. Gotta be better with the line-up going out there in ‘24. 2) Both guys were in their 2nd years in the Show last year. With health, they have to improve. Frankly, I don’t think Ober can be much better other than just remaining durable and taking the ball - his performances were generally pretty good! Ryan needs to master his command, very difficult thing, to be more effective in ‘24. 3) I think they could add to the Pen to offset any Starter deficiencies. I’ve said 15 times here they should push chips to the middle for Devin Williams - more control (2 yrs.) - affordable $7.25M - lights out pitcher. Otherwise, if they can’t spend much, sign H.J. Ryu to split the #4-#5 slot and move Varland to the Pen……..OR, if Varland looks really good, maybe the better way to get innings that matter with least risk of overuse, is to put Paddack in the Pen? He looked really, really good in September & October. Ryu - DeSclafani - Festa - Paddack could over the #4/#5 slots. ……………… Jordan Montgomery would simplify everything!!

The ACE talk is oversimplified IMO. It’s great to say we need an Ace - we need at least a #2, but it isn’t a simple thing to make happen. Can’t sign Snell due to years/$$, nor should we sign Snell. Jordan Montgomery for 5 years and $130M is a big stretch & that’s his low end - oh, & there’s probably 6-10 other teams in the mix for him. Clevinger could be a #2-3 guy but not any more consistent nor better than the Ryan/Ober combination. H J Ryu could be an uptick over Kuechel - great history - low ERA - been hurt most of last 2 years. ”Trade” for one………..teams really like to keep their best 1 or 2 pitchers! Burnes would have been a wasteful one year rental that would have depleted young assets. I target Devin Williams in the midst of the Brewer reshuffle ……..he’s got 2 years of availability & they need some starting pitching. We could TRY with DeSclafani - Winder - Headrick - SWR & the late #1 compensatory pick we’re getting for Gray. The Brewers have traded Houser & Burnes & lost Woodruff. Need some MLB arms to eat innings & be competitive. Williams is maybe the best reliever in the game & he makes $7.25M & then $10.5M. Adding him & Topa to our existing mix would establish a dominant Pen for next 2 years. With the DeSclafani exchange the Twins only spend $3.25M more $$. #5, roll with Varland - Festa ………..sign Ryu or preferably Clevinger. With TV $$ seeming to be more & more certain, taking the payroll to $142M seems realistic - still an 8% reduction from last year.

I think Louie can succeed but it sounds like the Everly Brothers in the background, Dreeeam - Dream, Dream, Dream - Dreeeam. Lopez threw 194 innings in ‘23 and we’re expecting/hoping for 200 innings from Varland? Ober threw 164 innings last year - we think he may back up & not reach 150 but hoping Varland throws 200??? Louie should be expected, like most full season, first year guys, to hit 115 innings. Lopez at 190 again - Ryan at 170 - Ober at 160 - Paddack at 115 - DeSclafani at 100 - SWR & Festa maybe 90 innings combined. That’s approximately 940 innings by starters. Some of Desclafani’s & Varland’s innings may be in long relief? 1450 regular season innings to be played……this leaves 510 BullPen innings. Seems to add up with 11-12 guys through the year in the Pen.

I saw some video of Festa a couple days ago - he’s got 4 decent pitches! I think he will be able to throw 75 innings in the Show from July toward October. His curve looked good - sinking change-up - high riding fastball, like Ryan’s - along with a slider. I was impressed.

Farmer & Santana are the two depth guys for the infield. Miranda has essentially zero chance out of Spring Training to play for the Twins - he may play somewhere else? Santana has missed only a couple weeks since 2014 due to injury and Farmer was available every day last year other than the few weeks out after getting hit in the face. Santana has experience & no mental issues with being DH. Sound defender at 1B. 2 catchers…………that’s 8 on the dirt. Wallner - Buxton/Castro - Kepler………Gordon or Martin or FA signing of Duvall for the 5th spot. I can’t see Larnach because he can’t add depth in CF. Larnach could make it if RAKING in Spring Training since Martin has options, so he could be up & down as Buxton’s availability goes up & down. Good problems - position players seem set & if they add Duvall, with Martin as his back-up from St. paul, it would be fantastic.

Santana’s the insurance policy needed - his blah year in ‘23 stacks up as even to, or a little better, than Miranda’s 2022……..and he’s way better defensively. Just makes sense to establish a floor for offensive expectations with some potential for better results when mixed into a better line-up. Miranda’s WAR in ‘22, with roughly 440 AB’s, was 1.0. Santana’s WAR in ‘23, with roughly 550 AB’s, was 2.7. He hit 23 HR’s last year. He plays every day if needed. Seems to be a no brainer!

Gallo didn’t displace anybody in ‘23 ……so, they may have spent $5M more than everyone would have liked. It was a risk & he was pretty good well into May. After July 15 it was obvious he was just around for defensive insurance & his flexibility defensively. He had no shot at the Playoff roster but they didn’t want to release him because he could defend across the OF & play a good 1B. They were paying him either way and couldn’t option him. They kept him in September with the roster expansion and on October 1st they tipped their hat and removed him from the 26 man. It was frustrating to watch but he actually brought value most of the time (not defending 3K’s per game!) with some surprise HR’s and a great glove.

My timing is such that I’m aware of the Santana signing……an advantage! Julien will start every game there’s a RH pitcher, plus some pinch hit opportunities. He’s in the line-up as a starter 70% of the time, minimum. He won’t get a moment at 1B regardless of what he said at Twins Fest……,maybe, if Kirilloff goes in IL for extended period of a month or more. Santana posts - he’s a switch hitter - that’s his M.O. & he’s a good defensive guy at 1B. Kirilloff starts 70% of games at 1B as his health allows. Santana the balance of starts. Farmer at 2B, 25% - 30% (45 games) of the time facing LH starters. Rests CC as needed through the year (20 games). Rests Lewis as needed through the year (30 games). Pinch hits a dozen times or so. 4 games started per week where & when needed. Farmer & Santana are the depth guys in the infield. Castro is depth guy behind the Wallner/Buxton/Kepler trio playing CF a bunch as Buxton will need to DH to stay healthy. Last OF spot?? I do not think they can carry Larnach because he can’t play CF. Gordon needs to hit in Spring Training or he’s gone. Martin fits the flexibility mold and hits RH. We’ll see………..don’t see anymore position signings………Duvall would fit but that eliminates Larnach & Gordon from being involved on the club in ‘24. Martin can go up & down from St. Paul. With Santana signing, Miranda, as well as Larnach & Gordon are all prime trade guys that may not have extreme value but they are better than prospects for some other teams.

It’s a move Team’s make - the Defending World Champs claimed him when Reds released - are they clueless as well? I live in Cincinnati & have seen him 6-7 times. He’s Pagan like to fans, but only 27. He had a 3.69 ERA. He’s not a multi-dimensional guy and he has some control issues. He can look very good at times as well, hence the ERA. If Twins can work with him in St. Paul, his velocity may jump 1-2 MPH &/or they work in another pitch &/or his control. Worth a shot with an option left!

Santana is the perfect compliment to Kirilloff in the RH batter’s box. If Kirilloff gets nicked they have a guy that posts every day he’s asked to play. He can play two months straight if needed. Also, as a complete aside, I’m assuming he can handle the bat and advance runners with contact if overmatched & can bunt as well. Veteran that doesn’t strike out at a high rate and walks at a good rate & plays great defense (that seems overlooked here) at 1B —- with 23 HR power as recently as 2023!! This is the front office adding a guy of value and getting mostly nothing but static about the move - lots & lots of critics last year with Solano signing as well! We’ll see.

Team shouldn’t develop in Minneapolis, develop in St. Paul. He establishes a floor at 1B. “Chances” in the Show come in rebuilding organizations or out of desperation. Santana’s actually better on defense than anyone else we roster……..+11 in one rating & +2 in a second rating. Can move his salary somewhere at the break if he’s underperforming (via trade or release) or if Miranda - Severino & Co. are pushing their way in to the team. Better than getting to Spring Training with a clear option v. hoping Miranda can get back to similar production to that of typical Santana. Miranda’s 2022 (his good year) he had a .325 OBP & .751 OPS with 1.0 WAR & 15 HR in 444 AB’s. Santana’s 2023 was a .318 OBP & .747 OPS with 2.7 WAR & 23 HR in 550 AB’s. The WAR is higher because of 110 more AB’s & much better defense. They established a Floor for that role and it matches up favorably - at least level, to Miranda’s 2022.

Still think the rotation on the dirt is very solid……….can’t discount that even with his solid contributions in ‘23, he only played in 80 games - didn’t start in some - DHed in some. The infield did pretty well w/o him, not perfect. Lewis - CC - Julien - Kirilloff (Farmer/Miranda) & Castro in emergencies is a good group IMO. Farmer is depth at SS & 3B for rest & he platoons at 2B.