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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    Santana makes 3 plays per week on defense that Miranda would not…….Miranda could be hitting .230 by early June & there’s no getting veterans back once released ……Martin might be hitting .190 in 15 more AB’s - Margot territory……..Martin won’t get a sniff of SS as long as Castro & Farmer are on the roster, he is a potential back-up at 2B however. With 65% of the season left, a Team can’t afford to scrap its depth. The young guys have options and can go up & down. As the season progresses health risk is reduced due to less games remaining. At some point you go with your top performers at that moment in time…… probably by August 15th. It’s May 4th……Vazquez was hitting .120 about 3 weeks ago and he’s around .220 now….Farmer was at .065 a week ago and is now at .136 ……Castro was in high .180’s about 2 weeks ago and is now up to .280 ….Kepler was 1 for 20 & hitting .050 to start the year and now he’s at .255…..and as you mentioned, Santana hit 4 homers in 5 games recently. Guys get back to their historical level of performance for the most part. Martin has no baseline to make assumptions about……..that’s one big reason.
  2. JD-TWINS
    2025: Lee - Correa - Julien - Kirilloff/Miranda…IF Lewis - Buxton/Castro - Larnach/Martin…OF Jeffers/Vazquez Farmer - Santana - Kepler salaries gone and a budget increase of $20M to high $140’s …that’s $42M to spend to supplement the rotation & DH or OF spot. Rotation is more than competitive & Pen is solid. I do not see why, with decent health, the club as assembled would not be competitive for the AL Pennant? Is this delusional?
  3. JD-TWINS
    If Gray pitches well - as was expected, against Houston, they could have realistically been in the ALCS last season. Not really sure what the beef is with their competitive stature? To me they keep re-molding the team to have more strengths every year. Correa - Lopez moves seem to not be discussed as positives and only the problem moves get discussed. The FO can’t control Buxton or Lewis’ health…..they have an excellent Pen - their rotation is average to above average. The Catcher - SS - 3B - 2B all have the capability to star in MLB. The Yankees have scored 2 runs or less for a handful of games in a row…….there are no perfect teams. It’s particularly difficult on the FO when ownership shifts the budget back to 2021 level in 2024!
  4. JD-TWINS
    The general opinion from those active in the TD forum would describe the FO in the bottom 2/3 of all the organizations ………… my personal guess on a pole would have them 22-26th……,some would argue 30th. Completely subjective, but I read everyday & have for a couple years. It’s certainly not a rosey sentiment……pretty close to a 180. Wildcard in first year - 2017 Division Titles in - 2019, 2020, & 2023 Team was absolutely beaten up by injury in ‘22………….4 playoff trips in 7 opportunities. Some good trades - some really good trades - some clunkers. Julien - Ober - Jeffers - Miranda - Duran - Larnach - Lewis - Lee and more guys to come have come through draft process. I know there are more than a handful of negatives some will be happy to point out…… I still think they do a much better than average job!
  5. JD-TWINS
    Another TD reader wrote - why isn’t Sands pitching the 8th?? …..Tough crowd. Sands looked good I thought. He’s in the proper roll. He’ll probably be the 6th/7th guy once Topa is healthy…….Sands may end up at AAA by July to stretch out if the rest of the Pen is covered with other guys. Kirilloff’s decline hasn’t been discussed much while winning 11 straight. I too am a big supporter. HR the other day took a little sting out of the decline. He needs to get back to .275/.340/.450 guy in next couple weeks!! Fingers crossed.
  6. JD-TWINS
    2 hits and a walk over 6 innings v. a AAA team would be a good outing…….doing this v. The Saux was really nice to see!! He showed good stuff in earlier outings just a lack of a good plan and command that seemed optional at times. He spoke after the game about connecting with Jeffers prior and going into the outing with confidence. A lot of parallels to what Lopez would say after games last year. Should have gained confidence to take forward! His stuff plays - just gotta control it and mix it and he could be a BIG surprise.
  7. JD-TWINS
    Lots of problems that aren’t real.
  8. JD-TWINS
    The TV issue seems to be a National Issue. Not saying the FO is blameless or has no ability to influence positive results but they are not alone in having issues with TV. To me, the Pitching Coach leaving was a money grab for him & kind of a low character move in Major Sports & reflects badly on him!! Doubtful he’ll be hired back in MLB any time soon. ……,that said, capitalism is what we all profess so if LSU lured him away (to be their pitching coach) for 2X $$ he has the right to make that move! I just wrote 10 sentences above on the Cincinnati trade and the sorrow about that as a resident of Cincinnati & a Twin’s fan. Tough one - it happens.
  9. JD-TWINS
    I live in Cincinnati - been here since ‘91 but grew up in Red Wing and will always be a Twins fan! I really, really hoped the trade for pitching with the Reds would yield Castillo (now a Mariner) & NOT Mahle. Mahle’s injuries have nothing to do with my opinion. He always tried to strike guys out and nibbled when ahead and then threw too many pitches - then HR’s. The upbeat thought was that once he left Great American he’d yield less unfortunate HR’s and be really good. First outing at Target - 3 HR’s. I get to see on the news daily the new heart of the Reds line-up Spencer Steer (‘23’s Club MVP)……,after April, being chased down by DeLaCruz! Also, I hear about the upside, hitting talent, & inevitable contributions to soon be seen by Encarnacion-Strand. Can’t be bitter!! Things don’t work out sometimes. Not everything goes as planned but the ability to have multiple moves that CAN work out and to be able to absorb the tough ones makes a good organization. I think the Twin’s FO put together a solid club with nice depth in ‘23 & on paper thought/think the same for ‘24. Paddack gave up 1 walk and 2 hits over 6 innings last night. Bullpen has been very good & they absorbed Duran being out the first month………he seems to have healed. Contributions from all different spots in the line-up and the ability to be back within 1.5 games of first place by May 3, with 3 other teams in the Division thriving, is a big deal. Looking forward to the rest of May. Hopefully, by first week of June they’ll have Buxton & Lewis back and once healthy they grab ahold of the Division lead! FO has set up the Team for success! Glad to see them getting some validation from their peers.
  10. JD-TWINS
    The latter - & me too!
  11. JD-TWINS
    He can just catch balls and advance on bases at a better than average basis. He doesn’t need to be a “show”. He needs to be in the line-up! Above average CF & 10 XBH in April w/o really getting going. That’s what we need.
  12. JD-TWINS
    Maybe crazy in May…………If Wallner doesn’t rebound - it may be worth considering for up to 2 more years. He’s gotta hit for more than 10 games though. He sure looks confident. He SURE IS producing!
  13. JD-TWINS
    Jeffers is obviously deserving! …….about 5-6 different guys behind him that could be considered #2. Miranda & Larnach have been up for 10-11 games so they really don’t qualify for me. Kepler has been on fire since returning but he only has maybe 14-15 total games. Correa same deal with lots of missed time. Kirilloff carried Team through some games early and if he keeps the same level through the year with a 127 OPS+ he’ll be the guy everyone wants to see. Could use to get his BA & thus his OBP up 15-20 points and he’d be ideal. Not a lot of pop yet but warmth and long fly balls are coming. Julien has been all over the place…….he too needs to get his average up to .250 or better to get his OBP to .380 or better. He’s shown lots of pop in bursts. He’s projecting to hit 35 or more HR on the season. His OPS+ is very respectable at 132. For me …….Kirilloff and Julien tie for #2 spot since they have been line-up fixtures most of the year! Both have faded a bit over last week so I hope to see them turn it up during home stand!
  14. JD-TWINS
    Only so much room on the roster, can’t keep everyone …….only so many guys with options. In Jackson’s case, he can’t be optioned so he’d have to be released. I see them having him eat innings and pitch when well ahead or at least a little behind. If he gets better he’s around for long haul - if just average, they may try to package him in a trade in July. They have Varland & a couple other options as a back-up for bullpen late in the year.
  15. JD-TWINS
    To your point - Castro & Santana could have been in discussions for DFA material 2 weeks ago………since Santana has homered in 4 separate games……….Castro has his average up to .273. Waaay early.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Exactly!! Buxton is OUT for a bit. Can’t displace Margot with anyone from the minors with any level of confidence. Martin will take Buxton’s roster spot. Margot is a depth guy and will be kept into July as that piece, at a minimum. Farmer is clubhouse glue and the new defensive replacement everywhere on the dirt with Castro in CF - very likely anyway. I do think if Castro keeps playing near where he’s at today, he’ll be around in ‘25. Switch hitting veteran that can play 6 positions……with a good arm & speed. Sounds like the definition of the Utility Guy.
  17. JD-TWINS
    Whether CF is Castro’s BEST position isn’t the question. Martin has Zero power and was hitting .226 in his first stint. Castro isn’t displacing Larnach or Kirilloff in LF v. RH pitching so Martin can start in CF. Not happening unless it’s a must need rest day. Castro was hitting .150 11 days ago but is now up to .273. Not necessarily a model of consistency - he did hit around .258 last year. I’m not a huge believer in the Miranda project either but he’s starting to soften my opinion with his bat & his defense. What’s desired and what makes most practical sense is my argument. Martin doesn’t hit well enough right now to play every day CF, particularly with Castro as an option.
  18. JD-TWINS
    I agree - not thrilled with a .242 average but it’s slightly better than his declining career average. He hit .205 or something last year, with no legs under him. Gotta assume, even though it’s a real drag, that most here had to be just waiting for Byron to suffer some issue with health! I have no problem with his performance this year - been available - a spark at times (involved in scoring with Kepler’s help twice this week late in games) - 10 XBH in April translates to 60 for the year…….decent production. He had a .8 WAR for the first month - translates to 4.5 - 5.0 for the year. SOLID! Hope he’s back sooner than later!!
  19. JD-TWINS
    Why would it matter if he’s playing CF 600 innings or LF & CF 300 each? He hits from either side. Seems continuity is good for him and others around him - right? Margot - Martin can play right & left. Kirilloff - Larnach - Kepler LF & RF. With Correa back - Miranda hitting well for now and remaining on roster at least until Lewis is back & Farmer/Martin available for 3B/2B platoon……….it seems Castro is the natural choice in CF.
  20. JD-TWINS
    Castro has a great arm - he’s got good speed - he’s fairly durable - and after today’s game his BA is at .273 for the season. He’s as good as they come for a depth guy. 295 innings in LF & 265 innings in CF in ‘23. Correa is back (no need for Castro in infield) - Miranda is hitting and will play 3B a bunch now. Farmer will get some off days now v. RH pitching. Should be OK……..Kirilloff in LF - Castro in CF - Kepler in RF with Larnach at DH v. Right Handed pitching. Byron’s out 3-8 weeks after what it looked like this afternoon. Martin back up Friday I guess.
  21. JD-TWINS
    Completely agree on the offensive mediocrity shown. He had 4-5 peaks in there that helped them win a few and be competitive in others. Defensive flexibility is good! Looks like he may be back up Friday with the injury to Buxton’s knee this afternoon. What a drag to see him pull up and then complaining about right knee soreness. Cannot imagine this is a rest and ice kind of injury. Expecting something in the 4-8 week range. He may need another meniscus clean up? He didn’t twist it so it seems something popped or tore in there. Not a physician but have terrible knee and this looked serious - unfortunately!!
  22. JD-TWINS
    Nobody mentioning our BEST hitter, maybe don’t want to jinx, Trevor Larnach!! He has been solid and has started good innings and has some clutch hits to keep things rolling in others. .394 BA & 2 Hrs through 10 games…. nothing but solid so far! Didn’t get the author’s comment on Buxton’s pop out when pinch hitting & saying ……”it’s been his struggles at the plate that have kept him out of the line-up on a daily basis more than anything.” ……..Buxton has been in 27 of 29 games so far and I’d estimate he’s started 24 of those 27. He’s on pace for a 5.0 WAR and his power has been minimal to date. I’m ecstatic with the fact that he’s playing CF more than 50% of the time (I thought lofty goal) and running the bases with speed and his usual aggression! I’ll take Buxton at .242 BA - 10 XBH per month - starting in CF 70% of the time!! His power will come - 15 HR is just fine ……his value is being in the line-up 80% plus of the time. Huge step up over ‘22 & ‘23 so far in ‘24.
  23. JD-TWINS
    He threw 65-70 times last year……….. high leverage guy on a really good staff…….. Stewart threw 30 plus innings in ‘23. Neither have years of success but both were pretty good last year. Funderburk - Alcala don’t have lengthy track records either but I have confidence in them to have a role in ‘24 if needed.
  24. JD-TWINS
    Nice depth!! Bowman is gone DFA’d - Winder threw competitively the first time yesterday after coming off 60 day IL. Never heard of Wittigen?? Funderburk - Alcala - Staumont after Topa is activated is what my assumption is for Next Up.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Saw in Athletic this morning……Kepler, since coming back on April 22…… (.417/.490/.625). He’s had 5 successful AB’s getting an RBI with 2 outs. Big Sac Fly last night after going 1-3. He sure seems motivated……..whatever works between his ears, contract related or not.
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