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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    Agree on the opening day roster at this point! Depth is huge & kudos to the FO for the job well done in ‘23! Don’t dislike nor disrespect Polanco. Don’t see room for him on the roster with the other options available. Not you, but many just state we “should keep him” - which is fine - but they think all the rest of the guys they like should be on the roster as well. People suggest he should “just play 1B” or Julien “should just play 1B”. They both displace Kirilloff, who still has a pretty decent upside IMO…… 13 spots and need to make decisions on the roster. Julien & Castro will be rostered. Farmer seems to be the alternative to Julien at this point. Gordon has no more options (could be traded or maybe more likely, released?) Lee/Lewis is probably not happening this season but possible later in the summer as more depth. Martin’s ability (on paper) to play CF & IF is attractive as well if he hits at all. All stuff above that’s obvious - I am just calling for a decision path with those guys……..seems Jorge’s cost pushes him closer to the odd man out. Patience as you say!! Polanco, straight up, without some prospects will not net Twins a solution for any of their needs…….assuming most see this as real?
  2. JD-TWINS
    Arraez - most of 3 seasons and a batting title………Lewis - 70 games over 2 seasons……makes sense Luis got more thumbs up. To me, Lewis is a potential big time star…….trading him seems like something they just can’t do. Polanco for any starting pitcher with upside is a WIN. He played 108 games & 80 games the past 2 seasons…….not sure what that has to do with Mookie Betts move to 2B? It’s difficult to know but there are often, signs. Julien - Farmer - Gordon - Martin - Castro - Lee/Lewis all able to play 2B is another sign that it’s time to move on from the $10.5M, IMO.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Rating or arguing our #10-#40 prospects in system now or ever is a really vague exercise………..most guys that work in baseball would tell you those guys are all big maybes in any system. There was no slant in my comments about Miami trading Chisholm. He had a step back offensively in CF…..maybe regressed to his norm? Anyway, I suggested they get Rodriguez from Twins as part of a deal and slot him in CF, allowing Chisholm to move back to a more comfortable position at 2B, as Rodriguez is ready. As stated, offering $3M of annual assistance for Vazquez in nearly any trade he’s involved with. Farmer is around $6.5M I believe? So that’s, say $14M for two skilled veterans. MLB average salary is a touch over $5M for ‘24…..educated guess, up from $4.9M in ‘23. So they get a couple of proven solutions for $4M more than league average. Doesn’t seem ridiculous. It seems to come down to “how soon” do they need to fill the spots? I don’t have a problem with Camargo……..no problem with Rodriguez …….no problem with Festa …………would prefer not moving Lee but nothing is free. Do they want somebody they know they can pencil into the line-up for sure, in January or do they want “upside”? I have great respect for the value Luzardo brings and understand Miami has the leverage!!
  4. JD-TWINS
    Now I’m confused, through my own fault of not following the Marlins situation closely enough. Author says they need a SS - a contributor says they have a guy named Berti that’s better than Farmer - you make a comment that they have a gaping hole at short. - ??? Also, I didn’t know Alcantara’s situation allows for control through ‘27. Thanks for that. I thought through ‘25……,,changes things! However, signing a guy that can’t help in ‘24 & costs $9M against ‘24 payroll is counter intuitive for sure. Could be a decent investment but it seems like a real stretch with $$ tight this year and for a club that’s ready to go deep in postseason. Seems Woodruff would cost less and lose zero assets in this type of approach …….assuming he’d be reasonable in ‘24($5M) if offered a 3 year deal in the high teens for year’s 2 & 3. I don’t see any scenario where we have enough trade assets to obtain both Luzardo & Alcantara……..(keeping Lewis/Jenkins) can’t see the latter being a salary reduction throw in. At some point it makes little sense to acquire Vazquez and then trade away 40-60% of that young pitching talent that needs molding. Would love Luzardo!! Getting Alcantara by himself as an investment makes sense but it seems they need to stabilize ‘24 staff first - right? Maybe rotation is what it is with current AAA depth?
  5. JD-TWINS
    Luzardo is target for sure. Twins could offer some $$ relief in a Vazquez portion of deal - $3M/yr? Seems Marlins need a ready guy with MLB seasoning if they have a hole. Best mutual option. They have 2 needs…….maybe it’s Camargo & they sign a FA like Cassilli for $2M for the catcher depth? Farmer is the stability and ready now guy for them……….We toss in E. Rodriguez and they can use him in CF at some point & get Chisholm back to 2B. Arraez goes to DH/1B rotation with Josh Bell……still playing a bit at 2B later & routinely, until Rodriguez is ready…….seems Festa would need to round out a deal or at least some pitching back to Miami? …………… I really like Lee at 3B long-term (no trades) & Julien at 2B with Lewis (due to athleticism & flexibility) becoming the RH power bat in LF &/or at 1B that they seem to need……probably a ‘25 move, but with Wallner then in RF it sure smoothes out the rough edges in line-up and $$ issues.
  6. JD-TWINS
    Making something happen to get Luzardo makes sense - can’t get that level guy for nothing, so if Lee is their desire at SS, Twins have to seriously consider! The Twins could offer some salary relief to help move Vazquez as part of the deal…..maybe $3m/year?Probably need to add another pitcher &/or prospect to make this happen. Farmer - Vazquez - Festa - E. Rodriguez ……with Vazquez salary relief would be a potential deal Marlins may consider. Alcantara is not worth the Twin’s efforts/$$$. No help (some cost) this year & then a “maybe” good year in ‘25 for $17.5M or near. We can’t afford to keep Farmer but we’d take on the same $$ or more this year to re-hab Alcantara? Doesn’t make sense.
  7. JD-TWINS
    What if Justin Morneau didn’t hit behind him - what if Johan Santana didn’t throw to him……,,gotta be thankful for the good times and good fortune!!! …….Congrats to a class act & super talent!
  8. JD-TWINS
    Don’t disagree - not sure how $$ could be determined or allocated? 34 years old and has to sit this year. Maybe a 2 year deal worth $5M paid out $1.5M & $3.5M?? Maybe $2M per year with some additional incentive $$ in the ‘25 season? Can’t imagine his market is very strong.
  9. JD-TWINS
    Not making ANY moves or sign anyone above a flyer reliever or minor league deals would be very disappointing!……..could be in Detroit though, where they traded Lorenzen at the deadline & let Rodriguez walk in FA……to replace them they “are adding” Flarhety & Maeda & are going to make a run at the Division……..the math doesn’t work - Pure fantasy.
  10. JD-TWINS
    Lewis & everyone else in the game needs health. How many strong athletic guys in baseball blow ACL’s twice, or then more? How many games would you predict he plays in ‘24?………..get out the crystal ball He played 127 games in 2019 with 519 AB’s…….ALL of baseball in Minors was off in 2020…….out with knee all of ‘21 - out nearly all of ‘22 with knee……..had a very respectable rookie season in Minneapolis in ‘23. Twins 2nd & 3rd highest paid players played 86 (at DH) & 80 games in ‘23…….player health is obviously an issue…….highest paid guy played through Plantar Fasciitis most of the year. In 58 games he had a 2.4 WAR. Do you think Lewis should be a real trade option?
  11. JD-TWINS
    Am glad he’s not around to speculate about any longer. Blah defender & would displace Kirilloff to get his value at $17M - can’t do that. Too expensive, for the performance difference, with the options Team has in front of them internally or with a more flexible guy like Turner. Seems the Brewers are going to try & make a run this year by signing him & giving Burnes another shot, at least until the deadline. I am holding out hope for the Twins/Brewers trade where Twins get Devin Williams. Maybe if they falter some, it’s doable at the deadline?
  12. JD-TWINS
    I want a photo of ALL 4 St. Paul guys on my basement wall……..hopefully, they get that done this summer and it’s available & it’s for sale. All 4 TWINS at one point! Winfield - Morris - Molitor - Mauer……(Paul might need some heels in that photo?) Congrats to Joe….1st ballot is BIG recognition.
  13. JD-TWINS
    25 in first full year of AAA doesn’t seem to make Martin “old” - right? If he’s an All-Star at 31, I’ll take it for sure!!
  14. JD-TWINS
    I’m all for trading for Devin Williams with 2 years of control at $7.25M …….tremendous improvement to Twins Pen!
  15. JD-TWINS
    Sounds great - not realistic. It’s like demanding 5 guys as good as Sandy Koufax as starters or else! All innings are important, obviously. Losing games in the late innings in which your team has spent 2 plus hours getting a lead, hurts your Win/Loss% but it can screw everyone up mentally and create a cloud for a day or 5. I appreciate the need for a solid Pen, agreed! 27 outs every day is the need, typically at a minimum. Winning 92 & losing 70 out of 162 isn’t a good record because it’s an easy game and we just need 8 “closers” to get it done.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Turner 1B for 45 games - 3B for 25 games - DH for 15 games - a bunch of PH opportunities…….go get him v. Hoskins!
  17. JD-TWINS
    Interesting thought. All roses for the Twins here, other than Castillo’s salary!! $24,150,000 per year for 4 years.………,..I love Castillo - I live in Cincinnati & was begging for Twins to shy away from Mahle & focus on Castillo a couple years ago. I don’t like filling holes in the Mariner line-up though with our everyday players. Also, this doesn’t seem practical or strategic in the sense that we could not trade any assets at all & sign Jordan Montgomery for an additional $2M per year, $26.2M/yr. Polanco’s salary would have to be moved but in some other deal. My thought is if we’re at $118-$120 now and have a ceiling in ‘24 of $130M plus a bit, we trade Polanco to get to a floor of $109M. Add Clevinger as a FA for 2 years at $15M/year. Trade Polanco - Festa - DeAndrade or whoever for Devin Williams at $7.25M/yr. of the Brewers for 2 years. Turang at 2B in Milwaukee isn’t the answer for them offensively. We move Polanco to NL & shift away from his salary. Those 2 guys add starter depth & make the Pen elite………for $22-23M/yr.
  18. JD-TWINS
    His ratio of AB’s shown above tell the story - 498 v. RH pitching & 178 v. LH pitching. The game is skewed to about 25% of pitchers being LH. Not going to sign Hoskins or any FA to platoon at 1B as a RH bat with NO flexibility to play anywhere else. DH is clogged with Buxton & Julien. Hoskins is not a great defender at 1B either, so that doesn’t help. Solano had enough success last year to pay him $3.5-$4M as insurance because of his low cost. Turner at 1B for 40 games & 3B for 25 games to rest Lewis & maybe 20 starts at DH seems like a reasonable move at a similar number. Would prefer trading Polanco and shifting $$ toward pitching v. part time 1B. Julien - Farmer - Gordon - Castro - Martin & maybe even Solano can all (Lee/Lewis) be options to cover needs at 2B…….it seems Polanco is not necessary & the $10.5M could be used along with any breakthrough $$ from TV.
  19. JD-TWINS
    Agree generally. I don’t see Burnes being nearly as good a fit as Luzardo. Luzardo 3 years of control, minimum, left……Burnes FA after ‘24. I know many may think I’m nuts but I don’t trade to a same league competitor to make them better. The more I look at a Julien’s stats the more I think his mix of OBP & power is very difficult to replace. Polanco - Rodriguez - couple other guys for Luzardo would be a dream come true. Can’t trade Lewis!!……I really don’t think trading Julien makes sense either. Lee was untouchable to me last week & prior but now I think it depends upon the opportunity & the return.
  20. JD-TWINS
    He’s a Top 10 offensive player at 25 or under…..have you seen him hit?
  21. JD-TWINS
    Agree generally. I don’t see Burnes being nearly as good a fit as Luzardo. Luzardo 3 years of control, minimum, left……Burnes FA after ‘24. I know many may think I’m nuts but I don’t trade to a same league competitor to make them better. The more I look at a Julien’s stats the more I think his mix of OBP & power is very difficult to replace. Polanco - Rodriguez - couple other guys for Luzardo would be a dream come true. Can’t trade Lewis!!……I really don’t think trading Julien makes sense either. Lee was untouchable to me last week & prior but now I think it depends upon the opportunity & the return.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Craziness! Royce Lewis is like A-Rod before PED’s. He hit 4 grand slams in 5 weeks as a rookie. 2 HR’s in his first playoff game. His offensive profile is a ceiling that’s open ended. Best Twin’s talent since Puckett at the plate….better power than Mauer………pretty similar to Morneau in the box, but more athletic. 135-140 games per year affected by Lewis v. 35 games per year with a starting pitcher. I get that Gilbert is durable and has good stuff and has tremendous value to nearly any franchise - he’s not that different than Ryan with actual results. The team pays pitchers to get positive outcomes - innings - wins - consistent competitiveness. Strikeouts & low ERA tend to lead to those good outcomes but the stats aren’t what the organization is chasing. At this point, Varland - Festa - SWR - Winder - Headrick will have to help get the Club to the deadline along with the #1-#4 guys. Maybe we can trade for a guy to add depth for the stretch at that point. If it’s my team I offload Polanco’s salary & spend it along with another $5M to sign Clevinger…….starter issue solved for next 2 years. Can still pursue a nice trade for an arm and if everyone performs we make a trade at the deadline to strengthen our position player portion of the roster.
  23. JD-TWINS
    Julien - Rodriguez - Headrick - Sands for Luzardo & Meyer might be a trade that would balance? Can’t see Miami trading a local hero & youthful, former Cy Young winner! I get he’s somewhat expensive for them but he has more trade value going into ‘25……after he’s done some off season workouts & thrown enough to give another team some confidence. After the past 3 months of considering trades, Julien’s offense (OBP with power) is too hard to let go of for nearly any upside. He could play 2B for the next 6 years or more! Lee at 3B - Julien at 2B - Lewis in LF or 1B as a mirror with Kirilloff in those 2 spots starting in ‘25, sounds really good! Team’s pitching can hold up, worst case, til the deadline in ‘24.
  24. JD-TWINS
    Everyone that pitches has better success against weaker line-ups, not just a Joe Ryan phenomena. Having a vertical movement pitch and a horizontal movement pitch and getting those honed……that’s what allows his fastball to be less hittable at a 50% usage rate. IMO, he just wasn’t getting his fastball up enough on certain days. Big difference between gut high & top of letters. He definitely changed the location after he came back from the leg injury and finished fairly strong. Am looking for good things - with health. He’s laid back externally but like most pros, he’s a real competitor and wants to improve.
  25. JD-TWINS
    General comment for all trade talks for an arm………I know this may be really “Old School” but I don’t like the thought of trading with Mariners (almost played in ‘23 playoffs & on the rise) or Toronto, the team we had to beat in the first round of ‘23 playoffs……and are very likely to face again at some point. To directly improve foes by filling their needs doesn’t seem wise. There are 15 teams in the NL to start with - Free Agency - again, maybe Old School but seems like a much safer path.
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