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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    I think he’s in the mix with these other guys (can Prielipp even throw?) ……Raya seems fragile to date due to protective status within organization. Canterino seems to be a darling here but has 85 pro innings over the past 4+ years. Cullpepper isn’t on radar yet for me ……Festa seems like he’s only a couple months away from helping intermittently. Headrick threw 27 innings in the bigs - he was just OK at best. The new splitter & having command of it would be a big dea!. I can see him getting 4-5 spots starts in the Show this year………won’t be disappointed if he outshines anyone on this list……Ober gets guys out with a similar fastball MPH.
  2. JD-TWINS
    If there’s a big concern by Management &/or Lewis (doubtful) to have him play in the OF, & the consensus is Lee should be at 3B, what do they do? Lots of people here say, just trade Julien for a pitcher………. his bat is valuable - his contract status is valuable - he’s reached neutral & getting better at 2B……only starting year 2. An option that may make sense for later this year or more likely in ‘25, move Lewis to 1B. Low physical stress - great glove & mobility at that corner - an everyday home for him. Kirilloff spells him 25 games per year & plays LF regularly……..Lewis could rest Lee as well & Kirilloff or other then plays 1B. Lee - CC - Julien - Lewis on the dirt is pretty good as well as at the plate! Possible?
  3. JD-TWINS
    Buxton playing “a lot” of CF is maybe 60 games plus. Castro will regularly play CF v. RH pitching………,,Buxton will DH a bunch v. RH pitching as he has decent reverse splits. Both Margot & Castro will play in the OF v. LH pitching 25-30% of total games. Farmer-Santana will be the right side v. LH pitching. Castro will play some 3B but mostly in CF & LF. I see him squarely as the 4th OF relative to innings played - maybe even the 3rd OF behind Kepler & Wallner?
  4. JD-TWINS
    ……..nobody is suggesting banishing him to the Pen. He needs to get his competitive legs at AA &/or St Paul - agreed. I just don’t want to burn up 60 innings of decent pitching from mid-April to mid-July and none of them are helping the Big Club win & then somebody decides he needs to taper off…….Frankly, may be short sighted, but I don’t care today ……through ‘24 season……about where Canterino fits into the ‘25 rotation. Best situation may be to have him start through June in minors, into July even & then taper him down with use through the Pen in Minneapolis? Just want every guy that can contribute effectively in ‘24 to do so.
  5. JD-TWINS
    Seems to me with an assumed jump for Correa back to at least .260 BA & Buxton up to at least .235 BA …….the XBH capabilities come along with more hits for those two……..,Kepler, somewhere between ‘23’s 1st half & 2nd half offense ……maybe .245 with decent XBH power. So these 3 guys were intermittently effective last year - to me, with these guys making the line-up longer along with Kirilloff-Wallner-Julien-Jeffers, Lewis will continue to see decent pitches to hit. If he hits .285 with 28 HR & 85 RBI, Lewis will be regressing a bit but still having a pretty solid year!! Games played is what the Team needs from Royce! Hoping for 130-135 games.
  6. JD-TWINS
    A thought about the dilemma coming up with a high test starter for game #2 in a postseason series. Nothing earth shattering. 12 guys typically on the Staff for playoff baseball……..Starters are reduced to 4 guys at this point. At this point I think these guys are on the Staff: Lopez - Paddack - Ryan - Ober Canterino - Varland - Thielbar or Funderburk - Okert - Stewart - Jax - Alcala - Duran Game #2 Paddack starts with the premise that he’s going 3 innings maximum……….Okert or one of the other lefties, assuming opponent stacks line-up toward LH batters, goes 1+ innings. Varland goes 2-3 innings. Seems like a quality solution to get through 6-7 innings. We then have the normal 6 other relievers to finish the game. Next is an “off” day. I don’t know who a team goes and gets that’s better than the two righties letting it out over 2-3 innings with Okert in the middle for 1+. Unconventional, but great chance to be effective, IMO.
  7. JD-TWINS
    It was Polanco or Farmer…..somebody had to go………Topa may change your mind?
  8. JD-TWINS
    I believe what you’re saying! …….in ‘19 (after college season of 90+ innings) he threw 25 innings in low minors…….nobody played in ‘20…….in ‘21 he threw 23 innings ………in ‘22 he threw 37 innings ………hurt & zero innings in ‘23. So, he’s thrown 85 professional innings in 2.25 seasons & not pitched at all the other 2 years. With that level of experience he doesn’t seem ready to spring into action as a starter in the Show. To me, that history doesn’t add up to 125 innings in ‘24. Not personal……don’t think it’s smart to target that many innings just because we all want him to be great. Festa & Raya are treated with kid gloves and they’ve never been hurt that I’m aware of - maybe? ………Limit Canterino’s innings and use him where he’ll bring most benefit.
  9. JD-TWINS
    I get he’s been healing since the Fall but still fresh off surgery…….not a great health history……...GAS for 12-25 pitches at a time seems like a sound usage for Canterino this year. Get him 55-70 innings between ST. PAUL & The Show. Big affect on Team’s success with this approach. If he holds up in ‘24, stretch him out over the Winter and into Spring of ‘25. IMO.
  10. JD-TWINS
    For me it’s tough to turn my back on Eddie Julien’s upside. ……supposedly, Lee is going to be playing infield for Twins by July or, worst case, next Spring. Lee hasn’t played 2B since early college. The “evaluators” over the past year slot him into the left side of the infield. He’s not playing SS any time soon in Minneapolis. If his best position is 3B & Julien is playing 2B……….Lewis playing LF & eliminating the need for “solid RH power bat in a corner OF spot” once and for all. He’s a better athlete & has played some OF. 3B is a more physically demanding grind than playing LF. All 3 guys in the line-up is the goal. If Buxton wasn’t on the team and the DH spot was open for the next few years…..easy!! Just rotate all 3 on defense on the dirt while spending time at DH for rest. Buxton will continue to slow down and he’s not going anywhere either……..DH is somewhat clogged. I get Royce tore up his knee in CF…….he might get hurt doing nearly anything. Teams have hidden inferior defensive talent in LF forever…….it’s not that demanding. Lewis is not inferior…….he’s just an infield first guy. He can still play 25-35 games at 3B when LH pitchers are throwing (Lee’s current weak spot) and he can play 3B when Lee plays SS to rest Correa for 20-25 games in ‘25. I think it’s the best option to get all our best bats in the line-up!
  11. JD-TWINS
    Dave Winfield?…..😉
  12. JD-TWINS
    To me, insanity! Let’s move Lee Smith to our 2nd starter …..let’s move Kenley Jansen to our 2nd starter……let’s move Bruce Sutter to our 2nd starter …….,let’s move Rollie Fingers to our 2nd starter ….,…let’s move Mariano Rivera to our 2nd starter……come on! Never heard these comments from any of these team’s management…..don’t care how thin the rotation may have been at any point in time. He’s in the Top 6 relievers in the game over 6 different pundits on MLB network’s 2024 predictions. He’s number 3 on a couple lists. His stuff is fabulous - his physique sure denotes the ability to hold up physically as a starter - he’s had some arm issues though - my rub is his ability to focus pitch to pitch. I think many of his troubles, on the few occasions he has troubles, are between his ears. That alone doesn’t bode well for a starting pitcher.
  13. JD-TWINS
    Not sure if this is tongue in cheek or if you are serious? I do think they may move him to LF….. maybe even later this year. Lewis - Buxton/Castro/Martin - Wallner in OF for ‘25………room for Larnach too! Lee - CC - Julien/Martin - Kirilloff & maybe Miranda? in IF. Lewis plays 3B a bunch v. LH pitching until Lee is competent form the right side of the plate. Castro & Kirilloff & Lewis & Martin could all go back & forth from OF to IF as needed. To me, LF is less physically demanding than 3B for Lewis & it opens up a spot for Lee’s best worth, along with Julien.
  14. JD-TWINS
    I like the Veteran depth - agree Farmer is our best next man up at all 3 positions on the dirt! Hoping Vazquez will bounce back a bit - seems to really be working at it for months. Santana seems to be a good fit - uptick in power over Solano from right side & better defense. Castro, though, doesn’t seem to get much respect. Not just here but in nearly any post. Castro in ‘23: 2.6 WAR …… 9 HR ……. 33 steals …. 106 OPS+ plays all over the place….great arm……switch hitter. Seems most think he will regress - he was lucky in ‘23…..don’t get it at all?
  15. JD-TWINS
    ………..both……..,Likely more valuable than Kepler will be this year….? Why the upbeat for these 2 vets and the negativity with Kepler? Max was one of 5 guys in the game to have 30 or more XBH & hit .300 in the 2nd half last year. Do I expect him to be an AllStar, no. Seems though, his fit in the locker room as the oldest tenured Twin, deserves as much respect as Vazquez or anyone.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Wish him well!!
  17. JD-TWINS
    Mental readiness, maturity is also a real thing …….. I gotta trust the Club knows which guys & when they should be in the majors. Pitching is often a “me thing” that needs to be developed …….pitch mix, command. Paying a guy $4M on a flier isn’t a bad risk & he’s not blocking anyone the Club deems ready to go. Plenty of innings to go around. Saying that a guy scheduled to throw 10-15% of the Team’s starter innings is just an innings eater isn’t the approach to maximize wins. I think Varland - SWR - Festa will combine for an entire year’s worth of starter innings …….180 or so. They’ll get their chances.
  18. JD-TWINS
    Don’t disagree at all - seems obvious he had poor run support! They still lost games he started at a higher rate than when he didn’t……he was often facing the other Team’s #1 or #2 starter, reason for lack of support as well……that’s why I think replacing his results will not be as difficult as many here seems to think. Will the Rotation’s ERA be higher, more than likely, YES! Can they go better than 15-18…….with guys that have ERA’s around 4.00…….certainly.
  19. JD-TWINS
    Less strikeouts is a good formula. In games Gray & Maeda pitched the TEAM was 6 games under .500 (my recollection, may want to check) so replacing these two guys at 33 & 35 respectively, with youth, makes sense to me. Not terrible risk. Risk, sure, but not unreasonable to think with more runs scored and better bullpen that the replacement arms can’t fare as well or better. Gray was fortunate to win v. Toronto with a well executed pick off in 5th inning to escape a jam. He did not pitch well v. Houston. Maeda did not pitch well in relief in post season. Twins have other competent guys that can give them an opportunity to win playoff games. Maybe not dominant arms but competitive arms.
  20. JD-TWINS
    2023 - Clevinger …..131 innings ……9-9 with a poor White Sox team …….. 3.71 ERA …….not fake news! Clubhouse mesh??
  21. JD-TWINS
    Should be pretty obvious if DeSclafani is going to give them opportunities to win games by May 1. The organization has a pretty ironclad ability to move DeSclafani to the IL with his history, if he’s struggling a bunch. He’s trying to go .500 in his starts and anything above that is wishful thinking. Can’t imagine the Team struggling because DeSclafani is on the roster - meaning Varland, SWR, & Festa will be in play sooner than later if there is a negative trend. Real problem is if DeScla & someone else have simultaneous issues.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Have been a proponent of signing Clevinger since December. My thought was he was labeled over a domestic abuse allegation - seemed to be pretty clear that he was exonerated through League & Criminal investigations. However, if his personality outside of this stuff isn’t very cohesive with “the group”, he’s not worth investing $15M plus. Varland - SWR - Festa can piece together 150 innings or more without issue! They may not look like Sonny Gray but they can be very competitive as a whole. Move on with the guys in the system ……. Kuechel, to me would be the only guy because there’s a mutual knowledge of the other side. A comfort within the Clubhouse. Last resort move.
  23. JD-TWINS
    …….also, btw…..I said 75 RBI but the bet is for 62.5 for Buxton. If he plays a healthy 110 games he gets 63 RBI - right?
  24. JD-TWINS
    No doubt that’s the SMART BET! I’ve stated for months that the expectation for Buxton should be 30-40 games in CF and hoping for 110-120 games total. Every other entry about Buxton from me states he’s only played over 100 games ONCE! (emphasized when some here want 140 games & 30 steals in ‘24……wow!) That said, been drinking the “I feel great” Kool Aid from Byron. Hoping for up to 50 starts in CF…..70 games at DH. 120 starts……he still rests or misses 25% of the season in that scenario. Thinking the RBI will come from more AB’s and him hitting a little deeper in the line-up as well as being protected better with an overall better line-up……….more similar to 2019’s. Fingers crossed!!!
  25. JD-TWINS
    Ryan has won 13 & 11 the past 2 years with difficulties in both years. To me, with the uptick, even mild, in run production & the long depth in the Pen, he’s back to 13 Wins at a minimum. Lopez had to pitch in cold for first time early last year - had a new pitch to master in the Sweeper - 2 new catchers as well……….he’s going to strike out near 200 but will definitely beat his win total from last year, 11. I really expect he’s got a great chance to win 50% or more of his starts……conservatively, 15 Wins! 91 Team wins, minimum. Don't want to jinx Lewis, nor Kepler. Buxton plays 120 games as CF & DH while hitting a minimum of 22 HR & accruing at least 75 RBI along with his 25 doubles!!
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