Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

JD-TWINS

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4,900

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    4

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    Good news - just saw on MLB.com that Pablo Lopez is their #1 candidate for Cy Young just ahead of Cole. Encouraging to see from a non- homer point of view! An upbeat aside……Brandon Pfaadt was 3-9 in 19 starts and 96 innings for the D-backs last year and he was somewhat of a post season hero for them. Hoping for Big things from Louie Varland this year - 100 innings & maybe an ERA south of 4.25???
  2. JD-TWINS
    Agreed - anything is possible!! Would love something like that out of the blue!!!! The number though, won’t/can’t be around $20M - unfortunately.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Expectation…..offense is more consistent and has better run production. Wallner’s numbers in 213 AB’s were very good…..regardless of strikeout %. Agreed, would also like to see it under 30% at a minimum. Lewis - Julien - Wallner for 1,500-1,600 combined AB’s in ‘24 v. approximately 750-800 in ‘23. Bullpen is better. Buxton & CC will have somewhat better health and have to improve somewhat offensively. Team was under .500 a handful of games in Gray/Maeda’s starts. To me it seems the risk and unknowns are spread around the roster enough so that the outcome will be positive without everything being perfect.
  4. JD-TWINS
    Snell wants $30M for 9 years ………Montgomery wants $25M for 6 years. There's a big valley between those numbers & $20M for a year with some incentives. I understand the potential for a more Team friendly deal at this point but these guys could contact 10 different teams that would pay either guy 4 years for $27M/yr in a heartbeat!! CC signed for 3 years with him having the options for years 2 & 3. $35M/year…..also considerably different than around $20M. Would love Montgomery but realistically he needs at least 5 years to sign anything IMO.
  5. JD-TWINS
    How about????……….better offense - more consistent offense - better Pen…….seems obvious how a TEAM wins more games if they give up more runs from starters. My point is the TEAM’s fate didn’t revolve around Sonny Gray & their fate in ‘24 should be upbeat in the 32 starts or so in which he will be replaced. He started 20% of the games and the TEAM had a losing record - period. Nobody’s dogging Sonny Gray. Just stating the reality that the Twins can go 16-16 in the same 32 starts in ‘24 without Sonny Gray and an ERA of 2.79. They may go 10-22 or they may go 19-13……….we’ll see. Don’t understand why Lopez - Ober - Ryan wouldn’t be expected to improve their W-L records with better offense expectations and better bullpen expectations? Do you predict a regression to mediocrity with these 3? 11-8……8-6……11-10 respectively. With similar or somewhat better offense, a mild expectation I think, the results get better. With a higher performing Pen the results get better. These 3 guys combining for a win - loss total of better than 30-24 is not some blue sky thought. To me STAFF ERA matters a bunch but a guy individually bringing it down (isn’t critical) and not winning games (Team not winning) doesn’t contribute to the big goal of team wins. Another question is can Paddack out perform Maeda’s ‘23?. Started 20 games - threw 106 innings - 4.23 ERA & was 6-8…….it seems he should be able to match that or even better those outcomes - reasonable?
  6. JD-TWINS
    Gray pitched well - deserved a better fate in many games! Not placing blame on him - the TEAM outcomes are what they were when he pitched. No bonus points for a low ERA. Bottom line going forward is can DeSclafani & Varland combine for 184 innings - maybe 200 innings and go .500? If that’s possible or probable, Gray has been successfully replaced. The Playoff mystique is just that. Gray won a 5 inning start v. Toronto and had to pick a guy off 2B to escape a big jam. Well done but hardly dominant…….His start against Astros was not good. I’m upbeat about the staff, as is, but certainly wouldn’t shy away from another starter addition. Nobody said it was his fault. Just reminding TD people he wasn’t dominant in the win-loss columns. No bonus points in the standings for ERA. Better chance to win with lower ERA, obviously. A starter with an ERA sub 3.00 necessary to get wins? No. The outcomes & innings are what need to be replaced. Can Varland & DeSclafani go .500 and eat up 184-200 innings? That’s the question. His post season outings in ‘23 were OK (with a big pick off) & poor. I think that’s fair.
  7. JD-TWINS
    Like the TEAM as put together now. Like the assumed 26 man here!! That said, can’t defend DeSclafani in the 5th spot if health is a question mark at this point. Hopefully, there will be a better picture of how he’s doing by March 1. So Buxton in CF is tenuous - Larnach as the 13th position player limits flexibility in the OF as he’s a duplicate of Kepler & Wallner and none are able to play CF - saw in MLB article that Miranda is projected to be rostered out of Spring Training & not Larnach……don’t see that w/o an injury between Kirilloff/Santana. Would prefer to live on the edge with Buxton’s health and assume Castro/Martin can handle CF if he’s got a problem with health. Gotta rely on the potential RH outfield bat coming from AAA as needed. Spend on FA starter………Clevinger or even Ryu……..Montgomery in a perfect world. Not absolutely necessary but a really good idea, obviously!
  8. JD-TWINS
    Absolutely correct! FanGraphs had the Pen as #1 in the AL & #3 in the game, & that’s prior to adding Okert. CC can’t be as bad as last year offensively! Buxton playing in 100 - 120 games would be huge offensively. If he can make some more contact & get the average closer to career average (.240) it will be a big boost. Martin & Lee both developing in St. Paul for a couple months early and ready if needed is a luxury. Wallner - Julien - Lewis ALL year!! Ober is very solid! Ryan’s not much different with health coupled with decent command (big deals in MLB obviously). Paddack’s stuff plays well - keeping him fresh will be the challenge. TEAM was 15-18 in Gray’s starts last year and the goal is to win games - not to replace ERA levels. Great respect to Gray’s ability but we need to be competitive & that’s it - don’t need to match same stats.
  9. JD-TWINS
    Wallner is obviously the starting LF! 139 OPS+……26 XBH with 14 HR in 213 AB’s ……great arm, needs to tame emotions with the arm……….anything like this over 500 AB’s and he’s a star. Larnach is getting an opportunity IF they don’t bring anyone else in & IF Martin doesn’t impress big time in Spring. Martin could be the guy if Buxton falters at all in Spring. Larnach is a good option within the organization to DH v. RH pitching. Larnach has an opportunity to be the LH bat option in LF when Wallner moves to RF & Kepler moves on in ‘25. Castro will get his AB’s through CF principally - 3B some - entering in middle of games in different spots as advantageous.
  10. JD-TWINS
    Miranda can’t play OF & Santana is best hitter from right side, so Jose is SOL unless one of the 1B is hurt.
  11. JD-TWINS
    Nobody is subbing for Julien v. RH pitching so that’s a non issue. You mention circumstances - that’s the point I keep making over & over. Circumstances are that we don’t have any other guys to play OF - particularly CF. I think most of his time will be there - I don’t doubt he will be in the line-up v. RH pitching, I’m just assuming Lewis & CC will play 135-140 games each without injury. Castro is principally in the OF/CF and even at DH v. RH pitching. IMO.
  12. JD-TWINS
    Castro played SS - 6 times in ‘23 - and Zero times after May 15th as an FYI. 3B a bunch of times with Lewis injuries and slow start early in the year - then Farmer was out because he got hit in the face by a pitch.
  13. JD-TWINS
    Farmer’s range has diminished? …….better defensively than Polanco & Julien at 2B in ‘23………..principally, he played SS when CC was out last year. I think the reduced range thought is pretty subjective. I think 100% that Castro will play v. RH pitching. Last year he played parts of 43 games in CF. That’s when Taylor was on the club. Buxton has played 100 games ONCE in his career. To say he’ll play 1/2 to 2/3 of the games in CF, PLUS a fair amount of games at DH is a tall ask/assumption! 72-75% of starters are RH…….Castro in the line-up. I just think he’ll see the vast majority of those games in CF…………if they sign Duvall or Taylor, that changes things. I think he’ll see some starts at 3B but not at 2B and very seldom, like 2-3 times, at SS.
  14. JD-TWINS
    Correct - but it will be in CF principally………realistically, Buxton is the 4th outfielder as the roster currently sits. No way Martin pencils in at CF ahead of Castro v. RH pitching, as you point out.
  15. JD-TWINS
    High bar for hitter acquired if .803 OPS Castro has hitting LH is the floor. Hope so too!
  16. JD-TWINS
    Any hitter obtained sure as heck better be able to play CF!!!! I can’t see many starts in the infield at all if he’s expected to be the primary depth for Buxton. He’ll probably start nearly every game that has a RH pitcher as opposition……………can’t imagine Buxton playing more than 40-50 games in CF. If Martin is the depth - he hits RH & Castro still starts primarily as the LH bat in CF. Farmer was to be the starting SS in ‘23 before CC was signed, so he’s the depth guy there unless Lee is on roster. Farmer is the default 2B v. LH pitching. Farmer, if not playing SS or 2B, is the first alternate at 3B until Lee comes up, whenever that may be. Castro will probably be the RH batting option in LF v. LH pitching. Martin/new guy could be in that mix as well.
  17. JD-TWINS
    It seems they need to bring Martin up out of Spring Training or sign a guy that can play 40% of the starts in CF. Maybe Duvall ………maybe even Taylor? Unless this happens, to free up Castro, he won’t see the dirt much at all, if ever, this year. He’ll need to constantly be ready to replace Buxton or start in CF. Love his versatility & his grit. Great OF arm. 33 steals. Big contributor!
  18. JD-TWINS
    Not trying to replace ERA stats! Gray gave us chances to win games ……… Maeda gave us chances to win games. Regular Season one went 8-8 & the other 6-8 with ERA’s 1.6 runs apart. Gray’s record should have been better but it wasn’t. Reality. He was 1 - 1 in the Playoffs with an OK 5 inning start against Toronto (picked a guy off 2B to escape a jam) & a poor start v. Astros. Reality. Between them, the Team’s outcomes were 21-26 (Gray’s starts were 15-18)……..no reason to be overly concerned with losing the #2 Cy Young candidate. Not trying to be flip about losing Gray or Maeda. Gotta have good innings/outings from replacements but shouldn’t be afraid with the guys stepping in to be able to have a .500 record in their starts.
  19. JD-TWINS
    Team’s outcomes in Gray’s starts, 15-18. Could have - should have been 4 or 5 games better with some run support…………an aside, Maeda’s outcomes were 6-8. That’s a combined record of 21-26. That’s reality. Those numbers are what the Team needs to replace & match or fully expect to better in ‘24……….not trying to replace ERA stats. Gray gave up a ridiculously low % of HR’s in ‘23. Good for him! Tough to sustain at that rate. When he challenged hitters and made the mental adjustment - strategic adjustment to not walk guys, his results were great. He pitched two Playoff games & got out of a big jam by picking a guy off 2B. 5 inning win. His Astros start was not good. I think with a really solid 8 guys (Varland & Canterino added) in the Pen in October, Twins can be very competitive on the mound. I completely expect that between Paddack - Varland - DeSclafani, the Team can post a record of .500 or better………….if they go .500 and all else is static, the Team wins 90 games. I would expect the other 3 starters to have better won/loss numbers in ‘24 and I would expect the offense to be more consistent through the year in ‘24 as well. Gotta move on and no reason not to expect positive outcomes.
  20. JD-TWINS
    Sure sounded like Lee’s shootouts be 3B in comments from ‘23. Then Lewis showed up really big and nobody thinks he should be disrupted……….don’t agree. If Lee’s the best 3B then Lewis should go to left or 1B (Kirilloff to LF then) …….not real sure this happens in ‘24?? They could split time at 3B in ‘24 & Lewis could DH some - LF some.
  21. JD-TWINS
    Probably most value as a spot starter as needed moving up & down from St. Paul.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Come on, there’s probably guys that play for Miesville that would play ahead of Bubba T. - he can run…….&………….he’s #7 on our depth chart if he doesn’t get claimed. Team is in real trouble if they have to roster him! I honestly believe Emma would get called up before Bubba sees Target Field. My hope is they spend on a starting arm first……..if not, I hope they sign Adam Duvall…..,need depth in CF for reasons stated above.
  23. JD-TWINS
    Headrick - maybe in the relief mix prior to Okert?
  24. JD-TWINS
    FanGraphs has Twins Pen as #1 in AL & #3 in the game, before the latest acquisition.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Austin Martin……Duvall in a real stretch? Whoever it is, they have to be able to play CF.
×
×
  • Create New...