JD-TWINS

Santana is here to fill Miranda’s spot. He posts, so if Kirilloff is hurt they have a fall back. He’s an excellent defender……..basically, a power upgrade over Solano. Also, let’s Miranda prove he can hit again - over a few months - with no risk to being a detriment in the Show.

It shows they see problems with Miranda. Santana “can” play regularly as a switch hitter but he hits best from the right side and he’s essentially an offensive step up from Solano in Power……very good defender as well. He’s definitely a fall back if Kirilloff is hurt but not because they expect to trade Kirilloff.

As mentioned above, Buxton’s career high for steals is 29 & he was 23 years old. He has 45 steals in the past 6 years combined. (doesn’t sound like the profile of a 20 or 30 base stealer in 2024) First base moved 3” closer to 2B and 2B moved 1.5” closer to 1B with the base dimension changes in ‘23. That’s 4.5” total more of an advantage than he had in his career previously….not a very big deal! Do we want to watch him diving back into first base as he’s held on once or twice a game - NO. He’s played over 100 games ONCE & that was when he was 23. He’s hurt ALL THE TIME. Why on earth would the club want him to even try to steal more than 10 times all year, if that? His profile has changed & his value is providing XBH ……..AND staying in the line-up!!! If he’s hurt he isn’t playing CF & he isn’t doubling in the gap. He (the Team) needs to preserve his legs for October availability. Playing CF too often or stealing at all are not ways to have him available in October at a high level physically. I get he’s fast - I get it’s exciting to watch him run down balls others might not get to on the grass - I get it’s cool to see guys steal bases. He needs to FOCUS on staying upright so he can hit in October. If he’s hurt he isn’t contributing a thing.

I like the up & coming player options! There’s an array of possibilities and hopefully team only needs one or two starter arms & one or two position guys through the year. The mid-season trade market is not a very real/good option. It’s tough to get anyone better than what you have and trade partners want a ransom for the guy you want. Just difficult to execute.

I agree on the knowledge of the numbers after all the complexities of shared revenues. It seems the accounting for T.V. number is actually 52% of $45 or so, million and not the whole thing - big difference. Not going to dive into details here since, as you say, it’s somewhat futile. However, there’s what is assumed to be a couple things that should help make an argument (support one) that 2024 payroll should be higher. #1 - Revenues across MLB are increasing annually at some rate #2 - Payroll history for Twins …2019-$119M spent…..2020-Covid spending……….2021-$125M spent ………2022-$134M spent …….2023-$154M spent With the uncertainties with T.V. $$ I could get behind moving back to $140-$145M range……very justifiable, but a 21% reduction from last year & a 9% reduction from 2022 doesn’t seem to make sense. It just doesn’t seem plausible that 2024 economics for the organization are forcing a regression in Payroll to that of under 2021’s total.

Interesting set of details in the article & good blend of player’s point of view! Good read…. Hoping for a whole bunch of options going into April from both the Pen & Rotation.

Going to go out on a limb & say Lewis is the real deal!! Looking forward to 135+ games. Good young core, as you state, along with some veteran depth with Kepler - Farmer - Vazquez - Santana - Castro & Vets in the Pen! Buxton - hoping for even 40-50 games in CF & he’s ready to play in October. Another 60-75 at DH. He only has 45 steals in the past 6 years though…….getting him somewhat healthy and turning him loose on the bases isn’t happening, or shouldn’t! 29 steals at age 23 is his maximum……..his last truly healthy season … played 140 games. Maybe 5 steals at key times?……..25 doubles & similar HR total would be great.

Robinson was Top 4 in MVP voting 4 times between 1960-1971. He won one MVP in ‘64. 2 World Series Team wins in that stretch - which is an aside in HOF voting (World Series MVP as well) 15 straight All-Star appearances along with 15 straight Gold Gloves. Eddie Brinkman was good defensively but he wasn’t an All-Star every year……my point is “All-Star” isn’t just picking up grounders. Brooks maybe not an offensive star but he was “overall” better than his peers for a long time. He was a mixture of leader, clutch hitter with some pretty decent years offensively, and the best at his position, overall, for numerous years. Discussed routinely as the best defensive 3B ever. Not sure why there’s any discussion from any side on his HOF worthiness or why he was voted into the Hall.

So I had a. cursory read here…….I have to say that anyone who thinks there was a better overall player, at Catcher, during Mauer’s Prime is nuts, IMO. Saying Santana & Liriano were the Twins best ever starting pitcher duo “……in the playofffs” is wildly inaccurate. Liriano was on his way to being my favorite Twins Pitcher ever - he pitched out of Pen until June & then went like 11-1 as a starter & he was lights out…..he tore up his arm though……,he tried to come back for the Playoffs but could not pitch effectively. He was 12-3, I believe, with a bunch of K’s & low ERA but he couldn’t perform due to injury. Heartbreaking…..,,,Santana was dominant as well. Respect to………Viola & Blyleven………..Morris & Erickson ……Kaat & Grant……..real pairs that actually pitched along side of each other in the Playoffs - World Series. ……………… WAR is just another measuring tool - my most obvious push back against WAR is a summary of JD Martinez in 2023: 1.9 WAR ……he had 432 AB’s as DH, so no defensive contribution. 27 doubles - 33 HR - 62 XBH & 103 RBI with a .271 BA. OBP of .321 an OPS of .893 an OPS+ of 134 The epitome of middle of line-up bat that produces runs!!….I realize he only played in 113 games, hence the lower amount of AB’s but a WAR of 1.9 seems like about 1/2 of what I expected.

Another plausible reason to have him focus on defense is that they are considering trading someone else currently blocking him………maybe Farmer ……..who knows who else? I think it’s doubtful but it makes sense to have Martin focused on IF reps. He could be parallel to Castro in his ability to play CF - LF - 2B ……maybe even 3B. I think Larnach, with a decent Spring, gets the 13th position player spot out of Spring Training. …………LF - RF - DH for a couple months minimum………....Martin & Lee will be looming & ready no later than June. Just a matter of if they are needed. Another year of control for either if they don’t come to MLB for a few weeks……I think that still matters??

90% of ‘22 would be a nice bounce back year in ‘24. That’s about an fWAR of 4.0 up from 1.1 in ‘23…….your stats. This is exciting , since without serious injury, it’s nearly a given that his defense & hitting will both rebound. A minor uptick from Buxton to Average of .235 or so (a pretty mild expectation) and 120 games played would be a boost to the Club. Buxton, with that .235 BA stumbles into 25 doubles & at least as many HR. Royce Lewis…..15 HR & 52 RBI in 58 games in ‘23. He hit .309 in his rookie year. If he can stay at .280 and play 135 games, he cruises to 100 RBI & flirts with 30 HR. Hopefully, he’ll be healthy enough to play 145 games plus!! These 3 can really help cary the offense through other’s ups & downs Kirilloff - Julien - Wallner - Jeffers right behind or, more accurately, blended with these 3 guys above & the offense can really roll in ‘24! Kepler - Farmer - Castro are all gravy in my mind.

Anything that looks like a fastball, and isn’t, is a good pitch if there is some decent command attached. Fastball, cutter, change, - all looking the same - is a nice combination with the occasional curveball as a different shape/look. The guy is in his prime & motivated after 2 surgeries - with a competitive club - hoping for good things! Nice write-up on Paddack interesting!

So, I don’t think any rational person would argue your points and general overview of business. IMO, there’s no need for transparency (complete) in a privately held business. There’s nothing wrong with profit either. Sports teams are high profile entities that are entertainment based with a broad cross-section of the public as customers/fans. Part of their Marketing approach to the customer base is to describe their “general thinking” on how they expect to compete - payroll being one element. That said, the Twin’s payroll total in 2024 has a few supporting factors that point to an expected total $30M higher than where they currently stand. They were 16th - 18th - 17th in payroll out of 30 MLB teams the past 3 years…….17th in 2019 as well. Right now, the team’s total is very near $122M……….the issue I have is that the revenues for ‘24 that are transparent, $$/seat - attendance, TV revenue, MLB Revenue Sharing, minimal net revenues from concessions & merchandise, are all pretty firm numbers. The commitment from the ownership has been a spending of 50-52% of liquid revenues. The general total revenue for ‘24, in a minimum range, seems to be $325M…………..50% equaling $162M. Twins are currently $3M under 2021’s payroll of $125M and change. They are $12M under 2022’s payroll. They are $32M under (an inflated spend in ‘23) 2023’s payroll. 2023 also netted increased revenues from the expected/budgeted norm, due to Playoff games and some portion of that TV revenue and Gate at Target field for a few games. This revenue should have significantly offset any extra payroll spend in ‘23. Not sure, with success & inflation, how the Team can justify the spending going backwards to a sub-2021 level this year?

Paddack seems to be best characterized as Chris Archer, relative to innings per start. Most games, just getting through 5 innings will be a hurdle……….with a half-dozen in the 3 2/3 range. 24-26 starts near 5 inning average is 120-130 innings & maybe a sweet spot before a mid-September move to the Pen. A break sometime in July/August seems like it would be prudent. Fingers crossed for durability. The cutter addition is interesting. Always good to hear guys are mixing things up to become more effective.

Posted in another TD thread - if one projects the team’s payroll forward from 2019 - $119M ……Covid year………...2021 - $125M ………2022 - $134M ………(skip 2023 as an over spending outlier - over by &10M at $154M) 7% annual increase is typical for MLB payrolls. 2024 projects to $153M to be parallel to previous years……..Team is at $122M as of today and that’s less than 2021 payroll. Why??

I like the group of 4 but I’d consider leaving Julien at 2B - let Lee play 3B - CC at short - Lewis at 1B. 2025: To me, going forward, it would be good for Lewis to play both corner IF spots & DH…….Kirilloff in LF or at 1B when Lewis is elsewhere…….Lee at 3B & depth at SS……Julien at 2B & DH. Julien at 1B scares me……at least at this point. Santana & Farmer both gone next year.

Mahle - Gray - Ober are all essentially a wash……seems to denote that they didn’t affect the ERA as catchers. Lopez struggled early in year more often - no accounting here for opponents (good/bad) - again, I think they both call a good game and the spikes here attributed to one or the other catcher is probably due to pitcher’s performance.

So, based on comments and data from the Pohlad interview/article in TD, I hi-light the following: Pohlad - “……since 2008…….,,Twins are, have been, committed to spending 50-52% of their revenues” on payroll. Article states the Revenue Share from MLB is $200M + TV revenue of $40M (I thought it was 85% of last year or $47M??) + with a decent club & playoff excitement carryover Attendance of 2,000,000 in ‘24 at last year’s avg ticket price of $33.89 = $67.7M. Last, NET revenues from concessions & merchandise sales at the Park ……….a CONSERVATIVE $8/patron = $16M. $200 + $40 + $67.7 + $16M = $323.7M 52% of Revenue = $168.3M 50% of Revenue = $161.85M Per Pohlad, team should spend $164M…….so what if the article numbers are off a bit and the spend should really be $145M…….please spend it! Wisely!! To me, this seems reasonable and it reflects what the owner has said they are committed to spend on payroll, as %, this week. Assumes they draw 25,000/game up from 24,300/game in ‘23. Assumes they do not change ticket prices. Assumes $8 total profit from each patron on concessions and merchandise ……this seems fairly conservative to me! Go get Clevinger and Max out at $138-$140M ….,ALCS bound! Everybody’s happy.

Recent Twin’s Payrolls & relative position v. other MLB teams, for 2nd straight day: 2019 - $119.6M. - 17 of 30 2020 - Covid season with 60 games - 18 of 30 2021 - $125.3M 16th of 30 2022 - $134.4M 18th of 30 2023 - $154M 17th of 30 2024 - currently at $122M - (? guess 22 of 30) Based on a 7% annual payroll increase, as an average, 2023 should have been $143M total spend & 2024 should be $153M. These two years & their totals are derived from where the Twins Payroll was from 2019 - 2022! At this point, Team’s payroll is less than 2021’s spend of $125.3M. Cannot see how this is justifiable???? Am assuming if payroll stays at $122M, the organization’s position v. other 30 teams would be in the 22 of 30 range - will shake out in next month. Probable payroll explanation for 2023 is BAM $$ - the team only spent $10M more than expected in ‘23 - they received $30M in BAM money so they pocketed or spent $20M elsewhere.

Kirilloff had a 117 OPS+ ……. his wrist seemed fine last year. He hit .270…….hard hit rate as % was 6 % above average at 44%. OBP of .348. Averaged 1 HR per 25 AB. Shoulder seems to have healed over winter. With Kirilloff getting 500 AB’s being ready from the jump this year, he hits 20 HR. Santana gets 250 AB’s between 1B - DH - Pinch hitting……..he hits 10 HR. That’s good production between the two! I think Lee will take a bit to be ready with the bat……into June. His role will depend on many factors. Is Buxton healthy? If not, Lee - Lewis - CC can get AB’s at DH. Lee can share “the resting duties” between 2B - SS - 3B with Farmer. Castro will be very focused on OF if Lee’s brought up. I still think Lee is the Central guy at 3B after September 1………Lewis plays some at 3B - more at DH - possibly in LF as well. Gotta have Kirilloff - Julien - Lewis - Lee - CC in the line-up to hit!! Wallner - Buxton - Kepler is the baseline but with an injury, Lewis could fill in out there on grass along with Castro.

Gray obviously deserved better run support!! The outcomes are what we are trying to replace…….Gray maybe 15–19 including playoffs? Anyway, I think Varland/DeScla/Festa/SWR can pitch 220 innings and have a .500 record with a few more runs and a better Pen. The ERA may not match up but the wins should be reasonable. Come playoffs……Ryan & Lopez can give a team a chance into the 5th inning in their starts. Ober could go 7 or could go 3 depending upon his command. I really like Paddack/Varland/Canterino as parts of the Playoff Pen. We’ll see who performs in the Pen through the year & who’s hot in September……………I think the current staff can get it done.

Obviously, guessing here…….Vazquez doing bat speed drills this winter & highly motivated after being embarrassed in last year’s playoffs ……….lost some weight as well…….also, having desire for Jeffers (both) FRESH in October will keep the starts more “even” through the year. Am assuming only two guys for the whole season again just because injury time is even more of a guess. 86 for Jeffers @ Catcher (53%) with 14 at DH (if his offense stays stellar) & 76 for Vazquez (47%), with a bunch of those (25) coming v. LH pitching. Vazquez got $10M because of experience - Defense - .271 BA from ‘19 - ‘22……….expecting a bit of an uptick from him in ‘24 is certainly plausible ……….if that happens it may be more like 50/50?

Not thrilled with the CC outcomes but to be fair, he hit .290 in 2022!! He hit over .400 in 2023 playoffs over 6 games!! He had a foot injury most of ‘23. Let’s take a look back after another season or two. The other players are, or it seems to be reported, enamored with his clubhouse attitude & leadership & experience & ability. We’ll see. Buxton’s OPS is really pretty reasonable since he signed - he just doesn’t stay on the field. Disappointing, for sure!!! A little bit of hindsight involved on the signing though. All-star in ‘22 & he makes $15M/year……………Lourdes Gurriel makes $14M/yr……..

Gurriel in ‘23 - .309 OBP & 108 OPS+ - 24 HR in 551 AB’s & 5 steals. Plays LF…….$14M/yr for 3 years W. Castro in ‘23 - .339 OBP & 106 OPS+ - 9 HR in 358 AB’s & 33 steals. Plays 3 OF & 3 IF as needed……..$3M/yr for 1 year F.O. does a pretty good job IMO. Topa made 70 appearances and had a 2.61 ERA ……..#76 Prospect (not a big deal to me) ……..potential 5th starter - Polanco played 80 games in ‘23. Seems like a good return for two arms & $5M total cost. Between the two arms they throw 10% of the Team’s innings (145) at worst. To me, Burnes for a year, & having to give up 4 - 5 assets (3 of which would have been pipeline guys) isn’t worthwhile. Keeping guys that have talent and will be inexpensive on your club in 1 - 4 years makes sense. Then though, FA is the path for the short term bump ahead…….I think team is fine!!

Paying Buxton $15M. Bellinger off a pretty good year for big $$???? Not wise, not happening. Can’t sign great or bust IMO, no Snell. Really good 85% of the time works really well. Montgomery has a CAREER 3.68 ERA - last year he was the Rangers (world champs) best pitcher from time he arrived over next 3 months. His stuff isn’t dynamic - don’t care, if he gets guys out! $30M - $24M - $24M…….player option after 2nd year…….$5M buyout for team for year 3. Worst case he gets $59M if Twins option out after year 2. His 3 year payout is potentially $26M average at $78M total. Boras wants the world, always, probably not enough?