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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    Agree - don’t see him in the Show until at least June. If he doesn’t hit WELL he may not be up at all. I struggle with the thought that he may replace someone on the basis of poor performance……,,injury, sure. I do think Martin may be ahead of Lee at this point.
  2. JD-TWINS
    No doubt DeSclafani is a potential problem. He’s been hurt about 40-50% of his time in the Majors. I don’t see the Team letting OBER go much more than 170 innings in regular season. PADDACK, maybe 125 innings. Guys like SWR & Festa will be key from July onward. Varland is pretty strong and has been building up - I think he’s good for 110 plus innings this year. Lopez -185 Ryan - 175 Ober - 165 Paddack - 115 Varland - 110 SWR - 40 Festa - 50 DeSclafani - 60?? That’s 558 innings for the Pen divided by 10 -11 guys……….maybe some additional “starter innings”?
  3. JD-TWINS
    He seems, on paper, to be in a battle with Staumont and Weiss for the 8th spot in the Pen. Okert - Jackson Thielbar - Topa Jax - Stewart Duran This seems to be the 6th - 9th……..Alcala could step in anywhere if his command is right. Fingers crossed!
  4. JD-TWINS
    Have said 15 times here (not that my opinion rules - just watching the tendencies over 12 months) & will once again, Brooks Lee is targeted for the left side of the infield. He’ll back up CC in ‘25 & he’ll start a bunch at 3B v. RH pitching. He’ll play some 2B after Farmer leaves the team. Lee has to hit for 6-8 weeks at a high level at AAA before he’s considered ready to push somebody off the 26-Man. Julien is too good not to keep his bat in play & DH is clogged with Buxton for 5 more years……even if he’s completely healed and plays CF 80 games per year. Julien isn’t moving to 1B……..needs to focus on ONE position. Kirilloff & Lewis are the ????? on defense in ‘25. I think Lewis floats, LF - 3B - 1B. Kirilloff at 1B & LF. Martin & Castro between OF first and IF as needed. 4 guys moving back & forth between dirt & grass ……..ultimate in flexible roster. If Niko Goodrum makes it to Target Field at any point in time, I’ll have to quit following the franchise.
  5. JD-TWINS
    Nobody in the organization cares what Bailey Ober or Chris Paddack said in a Spring Training interview about how many innings they expect to throw….,,,,just be happy they didn’t say 140 & 100. At least they want to compete! Didn't read the article but I am confused about your comments about velo & spin rates being raised to new ceilings with “the innings expectations of yesteryear”……nobody, save a half dozen guys in the game pitch innings anywhere near guys from even 20 years ago. 200 innings is a huge amount. Any starter getting to 180 innings is a WORKHORSE. 135 - 170 seems to be a typical range for somebody with decent success and no serious injuries.
  6. JD-TWINS
    Yep, he’s our #7 batter coming off a year with a .380 OBP and a bunch of power……..Jeffers in the #8 spot to help protect him……..I think we’ll score some runs in ‘24!
  7. JD-TWINS
    ……can’t get too concerned about his sprint speed dropping if he was running like Killebrew in ‘23 with foot injury. To me his range isn’t fantastic but he’s very solid (to me) on balls he gets to and his arm makes up for some deficiencies. Agreed, a 4.0 WAR season should be on the way and that’s a big boost over ‘23!!
  8. JD-TWINS
    Seriously, no Wallner? …….Miranda??? The guy had a .370 OBP & a .507 Slg%……these aren’t deep dive stats. He’s a corner OF here for next 5 years. If he regresses after his ROOKIE year it’s understandable. But if he’s within 10% of the stats shown here, he’s very solid & “possibly” a star in the making.
  9. JD-TWINS
    Jax has similar ERA to Kenley Jansen - Ryan Pressley - so he’s in the mix with very good closers……….He’s had some blown saves & those can stick in fan’s minds……..he’s been very good in a heck of a lot more games than anything else! Glad he’s a TWIN!
  10. JD-TWINS
    If Topa performs, nobody ever gets tired. Alternating Jax & Topa in 7th with Jax & Stewart in the 8th on varying days could get Duran to 35 plus saves. Those 4 guys are going to see a bunch of appearances………also, have a handful of others to help keep everyone fresh - am keyed up about the Pen in ‘24!
  11. JD-TWINS
    He gave up 28 runs in 65 innings - it’s pretty difficult to be a whole run lower on ERA as a guy that pitches to 4-5 guys a game over 71 appearances. If he gave up 4 less runs over the entire season his ERA would have been 3.32, down from 3.86. His ERA in ‘22 was 3.36 & he pitched 7 more innings than in ‘23. Above it was said that Jax could be the 3rd guy as part of the Pen’s 3 Headed Monster……..I think that Stewart has become that and that Jax was already included with Duran. He’s solid!
  12. JD-TWINS
    I agree it will be Byron’s spot for the majority of his starts - that’s why I think Kirilloff will play 1B at least 50% of the games……that’s 67% of RH pitchers.
  13. JD-TWINS
    For the quantity of outs he gets, it’s tough to say Duran is better. He may be more worthwhile though because he can have a big affect on 55-60 games per year. ……..a bunch of different first 8 inning scenarios can get the Team in a position where they put the game in Duran’s hands in the 9th. ………….i.e. he may come into a game for a save after Ryan gave up 5 runs in 4 innings ………Team scored a bunch of runs and now everyone expects Duran to perform!! High leverage nearly every inning pitched. I get every inning counts and the opposition is trying to score with every at bat. That said, the 2nd or 3rd inning with a tie game isn’t the same level of stress as a 1 run lead in the 9th. Both have value……..Ryan’s expectation of success is maybe 60-65% of his starts ………Duran’s expectation of success is closer to 90% as the CLOSER. Ryan may get paid more but who’s more valuable?
  14. JD-TWINS
    I don’t get the hate/lack of respect? He played 88 games, starting late coming off wrist surgery. He tore up his shoulder late in the year and looked bad in the playoffs as a result………..Buxton & Correa were hurt and looked terrible nearly the entire season. 117 OPS+ - .348 OBP - hit .270 ………..hardly Larnach type numbers. Why is he not playing every day, if he stays healthy (granted, his issue!), at 1B or at DH at a minimum?
  15. JD-TWINS
    117 OPS+ & .348 OBP & 11 HR in 88 games in ‘23 - what’s the problem? …,…….possibly, Rocco was sending a motivational message to Alex to combat complacency & to keep Santana working hard for his playing time, as a proud veteran??? If Santana is a sub-standard hitter v. RH pitching, which he is, why would Kirilloff not play regularly at 1B or at least be in the line-up as DH 95% of the time v. RH pitching? Because Rocco said defense rules in Spring Training?
  16. JD-TWINS
    I think an expansion of the ‘23 season, on the offensive side, will be adequate to make Kirilloff the guy at 1B v. RH pitching for a handful of years. ’23 numbers projected over 500 AB’s (281 in ‘23) in ‘24: 19 HR - 45 total XBH - .350 OBP - 120 OPS+ Potentially, 100 AB’s are from LF or DH in the line-up? Not sure why one would suggest that his defense needs to improve going forward or he’s in peril of losing his spot there to Eddie Julien? Hopefully, Santana will be a bit of a defensive mentor for him this year.
  17. JD-TWINS
    We aren’t on same page, obviously. Not sure where the reliever/starter/reliever scenario comes from? I have very little confidence he’ll throw 100 innings this year - my opinion. If he’s as good as his billing and he starts for any length of time in the minors…..,18 starts. He’s potentially thrown 90 innings by early to mid-August……,,my. concern is they are “shutting him down” by September. No crystal ball but he’s shown ZERO durability since he’s been drafted. Maybe they treat him like Raya & never let him see more than a dozen to 15 guys in a game? Maybe that works to preserve him? If he has good to great stuff, just want him available to use the stuff to help the big club get wins at some point.
  18. JD-TWINS
    He’s the overlooked guy!! A really solid starter - Maeda was our Ace in ‘20 with similar velocity. With a 4-5 pitch mix Ober could win 15 this year with a slightly better offense & a dominant Pen. Career ERA of 3.63…….144 innings in ‘23 & ERA of 3.43. 5:1 career strikeout to walk ratio…..9 K’s per 9 innings……….threw 165 innings last year if we include his AAA innings. 26 starts in the Show with a slow start & a break in August/Sept. in St. Paul.
  19. JD-TWINS
    Good explanation of platoons (Twin’s philosophy) in the Athletic today - specific to the Twins LH hitters over Team’s history. RH & LH splits are shown……by OPS. 26% of pitchers are LH. If a guy needs to rest 20-25 games/year, if he’s platooned with a right handed hitter, he only misses 20 games or 80 AB’s in a season over the days he’d rest anyway. Meanwhile, the RH hitter in the platoon is hitting above average. Seems to make a lot of sense.
  20. JD-TWINS
    Gallo - Taylor - Vazquez - Buxton - Wallner…… ………none of these guys could have helped our 2 strike OPS much, just needed to watch the games in ‘23. Buxton was hurt - Vazquez has been working hard over winter - Wallner was a Rookie & his profile will keep him striking out a fair amount going forward. Two guys are gone & replaced by Santana & Margot …….things should change significantly in the Team stats with two strikes.
  21. JD-TWINS
    He’s 29 years old - middle of his Prime. ……if he was 34 & coming off last year’s struggles there may be reason for more concern…,,,,he’ll be back to his career norms or fairly close. .272 BA - 20 HR - 75 RBI 18 HR & 29 doubles in ‘23 with 65 RBI. Less strikeouts and more contact will get his average up 30-40 points to “normal”. His career averages seem very attainable - with health. Not sure that if he was diagnosed with a foot problem in late May, why the author thinks he probably should have improved or hit a groove later in the year is a mystery. Lucky he stayed on the field and provided adequate defense & leadership. Watching the double-play groundouts was excruciating but same thing watching Killebrew 50+ years ago. Can’t run, you can’t run! Depth of Farmer & Castro …………obviously, with Lee at some point is a potential depth piece in ‘24 as well. Position seems to be covered well!
  22. JD-TWINS
    Hoping he keeps his OBP at .330 or better, that’s regression but not terrible. He will run into 20+ HR’s with 450 AB’s …..maybe 125 starts. As you state repeatedly, just like with most guys in the Show, there will be some lean to rough stretches. He seems intent on being his best and working on things - his natural bat to ball ability & power will just get better with experience & reps. I think he’s in a platoon with Margot in LF …….sitting initially against most lefties. Fits Margot and he need rest routinely anyway. He gets a bunch of compliments on his arm in left, understood. However, he seems a little enamored on how hard he throws the ball into the infield and he makes it difficult on cut-off guys by not just simply making “good/accurate” throw………..a few times he made wild throws to nowhere as well. refs to reign it in a bit IMO. Good player with a bunch of upside!
  23. JD-TWINS
    Would not surprise me at all if they don’t try to package Larnach & Miranda in trades sooner than later…. other guys are coming in ‘25…….honestly, not much value there so probably depth guys with options at AAA balance of this year. Even if the depth Veterans go away after this season, Rodriguez - Keirsey - Hellman - Severino are all going to be pushing to get Miranda & Larnach out of the way.
  24. JD-TWINS
    I got Kirilloff or Lewis in LF in ‘25 so Lee can play 3B……….if Kirilloff in LF, then Lewis at 1B. Not hearing this from anyone……most here, 90% plus, don’t think there’s a chance Lewis ever moves from 3B. Margot & Kepler gone……,Farmer & Santana too……. We’ll see how realistic it is for Buxton to be a focal point in CF in another 2-3 more months. Martin is back & forth from OF & IF - same with Castro. I’m theorizing Lewis at 1B OR LF and playing v. LH a bunch at 3B while Lee rests many of those days. Kirilloff can bounce back & forth between LF & 1B. With the above 4 off the roster they add Lee - Martin - maybe Miranda?? - Larnach?? A year from now: Lewis - Buxton/Castro/Martin - Wallner - Larnach Lee - CC - Julien - Kirilloff/Miranda (Martin/Castro IF & OF) 2 catchers Larnach/Buxton/Miranda principle guys at DH……..some Lewis & Kirilloff as well.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Out of this article the only guy I care about is Kiersey……really thought he’d get some at bats and a few games on the grass. I guess we’ll see if he can be consistent again this year starting in St. Paul - his speed and defensive ability in CF is intriguing, even if he only hits .220 he may have some value by ‘25 with big club.
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