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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    Castro had a 106 OPS+ ……period. .257 BA - 32 XBH - 33 steals - 6 positions potentially……124 games. Good speed & good arm! He’s going to turn 27 in a month. I don’t care what he did with the Tigers any more than I care what Nikko Goodrum did with the Tigers. How did they do in ‘23? Castro can play CF for 80 games if needed.
  2. JD-TWINS
    Author’s expectations are FINALLY reasonable for Buxton. I put his CF starts down to around 65 maximum from your 75. I increase the total games to 115 from your 100. No trying to steal 20-30 bases as I’ve seen suggested here more than once. The stigma that he can’t hit from the DH spot is ridiculous …….’23 proved he can’t DH if his legs aren’t working. Him and about 1400 other MLB players. If he can get his average up to .235-.240 minimum, the other numbers will all fall into place (K’s - XBH - HR - OPS+) The goal is healthy and able to start at least 50% of post season games in CF - gotta all agree on that being a successful year!
  3. JD-TWINS
    Good news is Wallner - Kirilloff - Jeffers - Julien - Lewis - Castro all had their best years last year!!! …….If 4 of the 6 repeat or better their numbers & if CC - Buxton - Kepler - Santana - Vazquez - Farmer are average, things are looking up!
  4. JD-TWINS
    Shift ban didn’t change 50 games into the season - his approach to make loud contact v. protective contact is what changed. He was one of 5 guys in the entire game to have 30XBH & hit over .300 for the 2nd half. That’s very impressive!!! I expect a better start & not as good in 2nd half, with similar totals for the season as a whole. Fingers crossed.
  5. JD-TWINS
    Ryan got 3-4 guys on K’s Tuesday with something moving downward. This is big because it allows him to miss more in the zone with his fastball, if he has a sinker off his fastball motion it keeps guys much more honest……… He’s thrown fastballs so often that guys can go up & just sit on that pitch. If he doesn’t elevate it to just “in” or just “out” of the top of the zone, it gets hammered. Fastball riding high - Sweeper right to left - Split/Change down and right a bit - Sinking fastball is a nice repertoire and the fine line with the “slider in the zone” goes away. Getting rid of your historical mistake pitch is a good thing. Hope he holds up - had his usual, zero emotion swag going on Tuesday!
  6. JD-TWINS
    I don’t get the “4th outfielder” hype with Margot. IMO, they needed someone to be in front of Martin as the NEED guy in CF in case of injury. He’s insurance in CF - more of a regular in LF with Wallner. To me, Margot is the platoon option with Wallner. He will start some games in CF when Baldelli anticipates wanting Castro’s flexibility off the bench for a game. He may play some more games in OF when they rest Kepler, & Wallner moves over to right. Kirilloff may be in the mix occasionally as well in the OF. I think Castro plays (starts most of them) 80 games in CF.
  7. JD-TWINS
    Jeffers isn’t going to DH more than a handful of games. His catching load is expected to go up 10-15 games……….rest days will be rest days as a rule………..then there’s the risk of losing the flexibility with a catcher on the bench in case of injury during a game. Agree that Buxton’s splits are decent against RH as well. Castro & Buxton will be in the line-up v. RH quite often with Castro on the grass. Buxton playing OF more than 60-80 games is unlikely. Castro may hit RH & see time in CF or RF if Margot is playing for Wallner in LF. Bottom line is Castro is not limited to IF…….I think he’ll start half the games in OF between all 3 spots. Some starts at 3B occasionally.
  8. JD-TWINS
    They certainly aren’t IF only guys. Margot is just one guy………pretty sure Castro is ahead of him v. RH pitching (75% of games) in the OF. Buxton is the Wildcard that will drive how much everyone else plays in the OF. V. lefties, Buxton may DH with Castro & Margot in the OF. Martin is next man up if a RH bat is needed. Larnach would be if just want some corner OF/DH depth.
  9. JD-TWINS
    My fault on the Ryan line from today’s game above………I got the two lines reversed. Ryan gave up a run on 3 hits. ……Cole Sands looks like he’s making a case for 8th spot in Pen.
  10. JD-TWINS
    “More” is 51% & above. If Kirilloff is hitting .270 or above he’s going to PLAY against RH pitching essentially every day. That’s about 122 games. Santana gets ALL the starts v. LH pitching at 1st Base. That’s 38-45 games or so. Kirilolloff may get starts in LF when Kepler rests some & Wallner moves over. He’ll DH maybe 40-50 games. So 10 in LF - 45 at DH - 70 at 1B………..that’s 125 games started. 92 total games at 1B for Santana per these assumptions. I don’t think he’ll get more starts than that if Kirilloff stays healthy.
  11. JD-TWINS
    Is that accurate, most Minnesotan’s can’t watch the Twins? I live in Ohio. I hear complaints but assume it’s the small minority of fans that have an issue. I have Prime Network for about $10/mo. ……..with that( all kinds of movies, and other programming) I sign up for the MLB Subscription and I get every game played in MLB, every day. $149/year. Twins got blacked out twice last year on Friday nights when Apple TV had their game. Watched Spring training game yesterday. Just turned on game today at 2:00 Eastern & Ryan is throwing in the 4th v. the Tigers. Ryan up to 62 pitches & only 1 hit & 1 run through 4. He cut his hair! …………….I have it so I don’t get the problems BUT I do understand not everyone has same access to programming/streaming etc. Fan since ‘67………..“Used” seems like a dramatic term. If that’s how you feel, I guess it makes sense. Personally, am upbeat about the F.O. and the personnel they’ve assembled. Disappointed in Organization’s spending reverting back to 2021 level! Think the Team has a good chance to build on what they put together last year - offense COULD be sneaky good!
  12. JD-TWINS
    Kirilloff hit .270 last year and was semi-healthy. If he feels right (big maybe) he may improve his power & average. He had an OBP of .348 and an OPS+ of 117 in ‘23. He can play! Just needs to stay healthy and he’s around for another handful of years.
  13. JD-TWINS
    Don’t see Miranda in Minneapolis unless Santana (RH hitting platoon guy) gets hurt. Santana almost always posts. Hasn’t missed any significant time since ‘14.
  14. JD-TWINS
    Pretty sure Lopez was 2-0 in playoffs in ‘23. Good pitcher! Only thing to add is, how can a guy that hasn’t started a game nor thrown an inning & has complained of elbow soreness, can’t see DeScla being in rotation for a number of weeks into the season at best.
  15. JD-TWINS
    Most fans have thought salaries have been out of hand since Catfish Hunter was in his prime……….’74 or so - right? Teams “informally” collude and then it becomes found out and the owners pay the price at some point. Cycle. The TV revenues have really driven cash flow for many organizations over the past 20 plus years. They seem to be unstable. IMO, this will get solved across some or a few platforms. The faucet will be turned back on soon after.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Can’t imagine you are not 100% correct!! Games start in 15 days……..even if the first start for the “5th starter” isn’t until April 8-10, I can’t imagine how a guy that’s been dealing with elbow soreness and HAS NOT thrown in a live game can viably be considered to be on the 26-man. I think Varland, if there’s no unforeseen meltdown, will be on the Staff well into May.
  17. JD-TWINS
    But, he can’t play. Certainly can’t hit! Bring up Larnach - Martin - Prato - Hellman - Keirsey - Severino - Miranda ………etc., & then let them option back to AAA. He’s been in the Majors parts of 6 seasons & 2023 wasn’t one. He’s 32. Career OBP of .299 - his best year and only league average year was 6 years ago with an OPS+ of 100. In 4 of his 6 years he hit .059 - .184 - .214 - .116. For those who don’t believe Batting Average is important, he had a NEGATIVE OPS+ in 2 of his 6 years. Not sure how that is accomplished? People here have complained about young guys needing a chance and that vets like Farmer & even Kepler are “blocking” guys from showing their abilities in the Show. How can anyone promote the Team having Goodrum on their 26-man, ever?
  18. JD-TWINS
    Article last week in the Athletic about the TWINS and the history of their good left handed hitters and how they were sharply skewed one way with results by weighing OPS. The results were v. RH & LH pitchers. Only Carew had an OPS over .800 facing left handed pitching. Koskie was around .770………Oliva was .690 ……Mauer was .760 I believe & Morneau slightly less. Hrbek wasn’t too bad from memory. They had another half dozen guys and nobody was what people would consider good v. LH pitching. That said, it’s not some terrible thing for Wallner or Julien to struggle v. LH pitching. Playing them & expecting them regularly v. lefties to “work it out” doesn’t make sense. This assumes the team has alternative RH batters. The amount of RH pitchers throughout life as a player gets the RH hitters more used to seeing pitching from the right side. LH hitters don’t see too many lefties growing up & very few are proficient hitting them. Being worried about guys sticking in the Show because they are struggling v LH pitching is worrying about something that likely isn’t changing any time soon.
  19. JD-TWINS
    Somebody’s gotta pitch….., Varland was up in ‘22 for 5 starts and had a sub 4.00 ERA. 60 plus innings in ‘23 and too many HR - higher ERA. He was pretty dominant in relief. If he continues to improve his command through reps he’ll be fine at some point. Seems he’ll be the 5th guy through April the way DeScla. is progressing. DeScla. may be toast as well - sore elbows, one season to the next, are not a good thing!! Varland could be up to start the year and stay for months…….SWR’s 2nd half of ‘23 and work so far in ‘24 is encouraging as well.
  20. JD-TWINS
    Castro is hitting .500 this Spring & Larnach is hitting .333………either work in LF. Larnach is the roster spot replacement. Wallner’s 1 for 16 isn’t real good - can’t imagine him being left in St. Paul.
  21. JD-TWINS
    Ask George Carlin.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Gray was 180 innings plus with a 2.79 ERA……Maeda was 106 innings at around 4.25 ERA. Seems the math is close on what Team is trying to replace. I’d like to focus on the Wins - Losses that have left the rotation. The Team ‘s Gray/Maeda combined record in their starts was around 21-26. Can Team go .500 in games started by the new starters? Am not really concerned about matching the combined ERA from last season. We’ll see.
  23. JD-TWINS
    I get being somewhat skeptical about a couple of new guys. I don’t understand the questioning of the Pen overall though? Even if we never heard of Staumont - Topa - Okert - Jackson………there are at least 8 decent options in the system. These new 4 all being terrible isn’t very likely. The added depth with these 4, to the guys the organization already had, seems to have been a good move to me.
  24. JD-TWINS
    He was obviously pitching - he’s got a 4 pitch mix right?? Not sure if I’m misunderstanding you? He played some SS as well as being a Star Pitcher is my assumption. Hope he stays healthy enough to contribute in 2-3-4 more years…….he sure has a lot to learn about pitching at 18!
  25. JD-TWINS
    You will need to loan (give) the organization about $110M to make that happen. Whole bunch of reasons that’s not happening but even if the $50M per year was only $22M per year……….the money is staying with guys they have and potentially on pitching if there’s a glaring need after ‘24.
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