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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    He missed 3 of 5 pitches…..1 to Santana & then 2 to Wallner in back to back AB’s. It’s tough enough to hit, w/o guessing what the zone might be, pitch to pitch. No credit to Cleveland for getting fooled and swinging at pitches outside the zone. We gotta hit, granted, but don’t need more obstacles than the opposing pitcher.
  2. JD-TWINS
    It’s the hitters …. Falvey isn’t influencing how Buxton or Correa or Kepler are trying to barrel up the ball. It’s nuts to think Carlos Santana can’t get a hit after 16 years because he’s been poisoned by ”the Twin’s approach”. Lewis doesn’t/hasn’t seem to be negatively affected by the Twin’s system. Julien hasn’t been told to stand, like a dunce, and take strike 3 …..5 times in two games. The damn hitters are responsible! The F.O. is responsible for assembling the talent - it seems, after 7 games, there may be a problem. Not having their best hitter and not having their best prospect as a depth piece to fill in (Lee for Lewis) is not a good situation!! The corner OF pieces of Kepler & Wallner are embarrassing. Julien looks like, as I said last year, he thinks he’s Ted Williams & if he doesn’t swing it’s a ball. Most arrogant looking young hitter I’ve ever seen. Plenty of time to come around through the next 10-20 games but something has to happen with a couple guys right now. The staff can’t pitch any better. If one removes Ober’s 8 runs and his 1 1/3 innings, the rest of the guys (12 pitchers) have a 2.26 ERA. Can’t have 10 guys hitting .200 or below!!
  3. JD-TWINS
    Santana was acquired to bat RH as the platoon at 1B - he is well below average as a LH bat - he’s been proving it routinely. V. LH pitching Buxton - DH …Farmer 2B …Jeffers - C …Santana - 1B ….Correa - SS …Kirilloff - LF …Castro - 3B …Kepler - RF …Martin - CF ….who bats where can be massaged but these are the best bats we have. Pitching stats…….to date: 1.15 WHIP - 8th 3.54 ERA - 9th 10 of our 13 pitchers have below 3.18 ERA to date. If Ober’s 8 runs and 1 1/3 innings are removed, the staff’s ERA is 2.26. Not any sort of pitching issue going on to date…….encouraging, since the 3 starters that weren’t great are all assumed to be better.
  4. JD-TWINS
    Unfortunately, he doesn’t seem to hit anything anywhere in the zone……….walking &/or getting hit by pitch seems to be his only threat at this point. Had high hopes - still do. I just don’t think there has been any major adjustment by pitchers - he swings through essentially everything. Terrible time for Larnach to be hurt and probably weeks away as a sub to let Wallner warm up in St. Paul.
  5. JD-TWINS
    Without Lewis, Lee, or Larnach as an option……….v. RH pitching: Julien - Buxton - Kirilloff - Kepler - Correa - Wallner - Jeffers - Santana - Castro Trying to protect Buxton & Kepler ……hoping they see better pitches to hit. Kepler looks broken, unfortunately. Can’t stack Kepler & Santana in the order at this point. Santana was signed to bat from the Right Side & he’s a hole in the order from left side. Until at least one of the 3 of Kepler - Wallner - Santana get going, the line-up is going to struggle…………….Carew & a hypnotist are my solutions for Julien’s inability to swing at pitches when he has 2 strikes - specifically 3-2 counts……tough to watch!!
  6. JD-TWINS
    ‘23………….17-12 in April……..then below .500 in May & June………started to take off in mid-July. Pitching is good - team will start winning.
  7. JD-TWINS
    If his strikeout rate wasn’t already at about 65% - his Spring wasn’t disastrous - then he’d get more consideration. Some minimum level of performance v. RH pitching may lead to some opportunities v. LH pitching but sending a guy up with a 80% chance of a K doesn’t make good sense.
  8. JD-TWINS
    Not looking back at 2016 - sorry, I get your point. The Team is 3-3 and had chance to be in or Win 2 of the 3 losses. Hasn’t been a stellar start but no reason to get too down……can’t try to dodge up worst start ever. Good history lesson though.
  9. JD-TWINS
    It’s a LOB thread and his lack of success is most recent …… “.143 Avg over 2 seasons with guys On Base” isn’t really singling him out with recency bias - he doesn’t take a smart/team approach with guys on base. Watch the games. He was hurt previously and rely g in power to produce. He can run now - needs to put ball in ground with a guy at 3B & not try to hit it to the Track or further every AB. AB’s are obviously fluid (approach is fluid) but with a guy on 3B and less than 2 outs, batter cannot strike out.
  10. JD-TWINS
    Not sure the logic or fit for Miranda on 26-man? Miranda started playing 3B about 5 days ago….his playing there or anywhere else doesn’t get Margot into the line-up with any regularity. He’s a platoon guy from the right side with less flexibility than Martin. He’s not in front of Santana at 1B v. LH pitching. He’s at least a month away at 3B, with any level of confidence…..IMO. They NEED Larnach or Lee v. RH pitching ASAP as DH or in the field, shifting Kirilloff or Buxton or Castro to DH. I’d like Kirilloff at 1B ……….Castro in CF or DH to get Santana out of the left side batter’s box. Santana is hapless from left side! Offensive problems lie with Wallner - Farmer - Vazquez - Kepler - Santana - Margot Jeffers - Julien - Castro will be OK with another 5-10 games. Buxton - Correa - Kirilloff are all healthy & performing.
  11. JD-TWINS
    Kiersey, if he hits near last year, could be up by later May. CF capable & lots of speed………if Martin doesn’t take off, could see Kiersey. Something has to spark with Margot over the next month or he is deadwood on the 26-man.
  12. JD-TWINS
    Alcantara is at $17M next two years and $21M in ‘27 & risky health going forward. ……to me, the last thing ANY organization needs is to trade for a pitcher that’s out a year for an arm injury! Not happening on Twin’s end. Luzardo would be a nice piece. In ‘24 - 179 innings & 3.58 ERA. 208 K’s. Ober in ‘24 - 144 innings & 3.43 ERA …….threw about 165 including AAA innings. I see no benefit in trading Ober along with prospects for Luzardo. Luzardo has better stuff and upside but in general, Ober is much more consistent. Some prospect combination outside of Lee & Jenkins could make sense.
  13. JD-TWINS
    The starters have two 4 inning outings - an absolute outlier with Ober at 1.33 innings - two 5+ inning starts (average) and a 7 inning start. After 6 games, with 2 new starters, I don’t think it’s that unusual. Varland & Paddack had decent stuff - not very efficient - they’ll get better. Ober had a 3.43 ERA last year so he’ll at least be average in ‘24. Not worried until end of April……need to be hitting stride by then. Pen depth has been as expected - there to lean on as needed. Probably won’t continue an ERA under 2.00 but they’ll be good.
  14. JD-TWINS
    I agree with your first paragraph regarding velocity having become king! UCL injuries seem commonplace……….Cleveland stuff was TMI for me this morning…….my point, specific to these two guys in the Twins organization, not their overall approach with arms in the organization, is these guys are young and not needed any time soon. Why not let them get physically stronger for another year or two before pushing their innings total - don’t see the harm?
  15. JD-TWINS
    To contrast - Varland was a full grown man after attending college. Ober & Winder have both had multiple physical issues. Don’t necessarily think their innings lead to Ober & Winder’s problems but that may be why the organization is protecting these younger arms? Graeterol too has had arm issues. Raya - Soto aren’t fully grown ………no problem letting them slowly develop and have success at each level for an entire year. They need to mature - they don’t need to be Doc Gooden. There’s no need to try and push pitchers into the MLB grinder prior to being 23-24 years old. Right now they have Ryan - Ober - SWR - Lopez - Festa - Varland are all around, with a couple other guys in the organization, through 2026……….no big rush for these young guys. Festa will be up at some point for 6-12 starts this year. SWR will also see 6-12 starts. Things are progressing.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Kepler is on pace to thrill us with 5 hits in his first 100 AB’s………..the epitome of “Failure to launch!” Come on MAX!!
  17. JD-TWINS
    Julien struck out looking 42% of his high strike out rate last year - 6th most in baseball. Two AB’s in, on Opening Day at Target, he’s struck out looking twice………bases loaded with 2 outs the second time. Good Pitcher - I get it but it’s a bad habit. He needs to be more aggressive to protect the plate with two strikes - PERIOD. Don’t care about his high walk rate and low chase % - one can’t bat lead-off and strike out looking repeatedly.
  18. JD-TWINS
    Kirilloff seems to have his launch angle working!! Just tripled off the wall in CF v. Guardians - double/triple Wednesday - flew out twice to the Track in another game - batting near .500……..appears healthy!!
  19. JD-TWINS
    The GOOD news is Buxton - Correa - Kirilloff are healthy and doing their job at a good level through 5 games. Buxton got a DH start and went 2-5 dispelling the “he can’t hit as a DH” theory (it’s one game I know - he was hurt all last year while being DH). 75-80% of games with him healthy & in the line-up is huge. Jeffers - Kepler - Farmer - Castro will all come around. Wallner may need a break in St. Paul to “re-set” at some point. Larnach - Lee being hurt isn’t helping our current need for depth on the 26-man. Santana from the left side is tough to watch - particularly in the middle of the line-up. Yesterday Kirilloff could have been at 1B with Wallner in LF - not a good sign when Wallner is sitting in the 5th game.
  20. JD-TWINS
    Regarding Martin - that’s baseball. He’s the depth guy this Spring. Speed & defense is his current role to provide. He takes BP and he’ll possibly get swapped out by early May by Lee? I don’t think his playing a limited role for 3-6 weeks will set him back. He is much more active than if he was injured…. I like Kiersey’s speed and defense as well! Would like him to get a look at least by September if he keeps his bat progressing. Agree completely on Farmer & Castro, might take 3-4 weeks & some warm weather games to get going……..it’ll happen. Just developing Miranda for options as you state - not expecting him playing at Target any time soon.
  21. JD-TWINS
    Seemed to me he wasn’t being handled properly - he’s gotta do it, ultimately - but he was actually ahead a lot of the time and then nibbled his way into 3-2 counts…….time after time. Need to determine an out pitch or a pitch to weak contact offering. Change-up? Cutter in to lefties? Fastball up or away? There didn’t seem to be command with strikes. Just being an athlete & “throwing”. The Yelich at bat was typical outcome of going 3-2 way too often…………can’t go Middle-Middle to anyone, particularly the #3 hitter. He hit it about 425 straight away.
  22. JD-TWINS
    The Pen has thrown 15 2/3 according to my memory & they’ve given up runs in one of 4 games. 3 runs over 6 2/3 on Sunday. ERA 1.72 for the group…….Ober’s performance is the only discouraging one from the Staff so far. Pretty good overall performance. Gotta score to win. A comparison, to keep hopeful - Bryce Harper was 0-11 going into last night after 3 games. He went 3-4 with 3 HR in game 4. There’s reason to stay upbeat.
  23. JD-TWINS
    Lewis is a huge hole…….Wallner - Jeffers and a couple others aren’t going to hit ZERO so there is hope over a bigger sampling size. I thought Varland had good stuff! Velocity was good - change up looked good - cutter & slider had different speeds with movement. However, his command was not there. Actually, he didn’t miss spots that bad & could have gotten 2-3 calls that would have changed things. Can’t go 3-2 to guys routinely - his high fastball is a weapon but it has to hit the zone. Taking him out after 89 pitches was best physically early in the year and definitely best mentally for him.
  24. JD-TWINS
    I don’t think there is any distinction between 4 & 5 other than their first start. With innings being an issue there’s no reason to skip a guy to then have the other 4 throw sooner in the big picture. Seems any extra time between starts will be taken advantage of every time.
  25. JD-TWINS
    FYI - Wallner has 5 K’s in 7 AB’s through 4 games……….won’t get into Spring numbers. Margot is NOT a favorite of mine!! However, when he initially pinch hit he got on base. Can’t have it both ways…………I get the frustration.
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