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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    He plays full time only if Kirilloff or maybe Wallner gets hurt & Kirilloff goes to left……pretty doubtful. Good news is he posts all season essentially since 2014. Good insurance.
  2. JD-TWINS
    Seriously, you think the space in RF at Target is magic? Don’t know what happened to Hunter in Detroit - he should have been more than capable to play RF anywhere. Kepler is borderline Gold Glove year after year in RF - what is the point of moving a guy who’s played great RF for most of a decade to another spot? Logic there? Have you heard anyone else think that Kepler should move to LF? Wallner is fine in left - he needs to get better at throwing to the right spot, under control & not just throw hard to the infield because it’s cool to throw hard. He’s got good speed and can handle the task at an average level at worst. Weakening two positions just doesn’t fly in my mind. RF is 10’ closer in the RF alley and the RF corner than LF. It also has a 23’ tall wall (v. 8’ wall in LF) and there are certainly nuances to playing the ball off that wall and Kepler does it really well. Nobody’s considering moving him IMO.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Rookies for offense in ‘23 along with Polanco? Maybe along with Kepler? Kepler one of 5 guys in the game to hit .300 plus BA with 30 or more XBH in the 2nd half of ‘23. Pen chosen by FanGraphs to be best in AL in ‘24.
  4. JD-TWINS
    ????…..respectfully, No. Kepler isn’t going anywhere in ‘24. He catches everything that can be caught. Solid arm. No debate. Move Wallner to RF and then wonder who will play LF? Sit Kepler? Torii Hunter was a Gold Glove CF for years….hope he could play RF at an OK level.
  5. JD-TWINS
    Don’t see this as a good fit for twins because they have to pay Buxton & am pretty sure he’ll have to DH for 80 games or more. How about J.D. Martinez for somebody? He’s got to be the Poster child for how screwed up WAR is!!! (or can be) In ‘23: He hit 33 HR - 62 XBH - 103 RBI in only 432 AB’s - .271 BA & a 134 OPS+ 1.9 WAR ……..how does that work?? Realize, no defensive contribution & little speed but a 1.9 WAR with those offensive stats????? An Extra Base Hit every 6.9 at bats. Really good!
  6. JD-TWINS
    IMO, a few years = 3 at a minimum……seems Twins lose leverage each year. I could see an escalating payment schedule but it doesn’t make sense for him to accept less if he has to bare the career risks “the next few years” Maybe 10 years for $200 with payments of: $4M - $10M - $16M - $24.25M for 7 more years. Big commitment overlapping ($24M) Correa for 2 years or more. Could give him option to get out each year after year 7. Discounted to the Twins due to his health concerns and the escalating pay approach. Lewis eliminates risk to him……..flexibility at age 32. Something like this may be reasonable but it’s hard to pull the trigger without at least 3-4 months of steady play/health in ‘24.
  7. JD-TWINS
    Still paying Scherzer & Verlander is part of their issue for ‘24. They need to spend on Alonso. ………plenty of $$$ so I expect things will change after ‘24 as new GM gets settled.
  8. JD-TWINS
    The Team would have to pay Scherzer/Verlander/deGrom $$ for a one year deal……..that’s $40-$50M/yr. Makes no sense. With injury history Snell has, it doesn’t even make sense for him……….he may paint himself in a corner going forward with injuries in ‘24 on a one year deal. No big $$ FA wants to sign, nor should consider, a one year deal. Could do it similar to Correa’s deal but all the power is in the ”player options” in that case.
  9. JD-TWINS
    Same with Clevinger, as an aside, since I saw Colorado, Nationals, Red Sox, Pirates as his best options……..I get Boston but the others don’t paint a rosie ‘24!
  10. JD-TWINS
    Ober got 3 runs or less in 14 of his starts. He was 8-6 with an ERA of 3.43 (Top 20 ERA in baseball) didn’t get to 150 innings so not in that discussion nationally - he got to 144 innings and threw 23 innings at AAA. He is not a middle of the road starter. Ryan, until he pulled a leg muscle & was too stupid to let anyone know, was on track to be on All-Star team. Are they Pablo Lopez upside - nope. Can’t have the lowest Rotation ERA in AL with just Sonny Gray’s numbers though. Polanco played 80 games and struggled through nearly 10 starts at 3B & DHed a few games………don’t see a loss there in productivity …….just a sentimental loss. Team’s record in Gray & Maeda’s starts was at best 21 - 26. Maeda threw 106 innings with a 4.23 ERA……..Paddack can match or better Maeda’s numbers. Who looked better in the Playoffs last fall between Maeda & Paddack? Taylor hit .220 with a ton of strikeouts. Decent power & nice defense. Buxton/Castro can cover CF if Buxton only starts 40 games. Buxton & Correa have to be a bit better than ‘23 with some decent upside. Lewis - Julien - Wallner each getting 500-550AB’s v. 1/2 that number in ‘23…..that’s a plus. Anticipated (per FanGraphs, not me) to have the best Pen in the AL. Topa-Okert-Alcala-Funderburk can cover Pagan’s contributions with expected upside! Santana/Kirilloff creates a solid platoon at 1B! No Gallo - No Gordon - No Miranda eating up AB’s and not performing……….addition by subtraction!
  11. JD-TWINS
    FanGraphs has the Twins Pen as best in the AL. Starters wins last year are these, respectively: Lopez-Maeda-Gray-Ober-Ryan-Varland-Mahle 11 - 6 - 8 - 8 - 11 - 4 - 1 = 49 wins from the core starters……Bullpen is a big key to Team’s success, the & one independent source above, before Okert was acquired, thinks Twins have #3 Pen in the game & #1 in the AL. That’s big!
  12. JD-TWINS
    The trade for Carlton was first thing I thought of - a little vengeance involved in that trade from the Cardinal’s Ownership but Wise was a good pitcher…….faded over following years, maybe it’s a year 10 comparison???
  13. JD-TWINS
    Thielbar will be the higher leverage LH, if healthy. Okert will probably displace Funderburk out of Spring Training since Funderburk has multiple options. 70 innings is an every other day guy……..even if in the staff all year that’s a lot of relief innings. Part-time in the Show…….25-40 innings seems to be a reasonable change. I like Funderburk a bunch - hope he competes well next month and earns a spot for Opening Day. Doubtful though after the Gordon trade.
  14. JD-TWINS
    So, IMO, Lee is in St Paul until his bat forces him across the river (hopefully not an injury!) ………. June - July - August. The Team toys with things the remainder of the season to see if they can get all the bats in the line-up. Seems to me Kirilloff is at 1B for a few years - Julien, likewise is principally at 2B - Lee is the best long-term guy at 3B - CC is at SS for 2-3 more years minimum. Lewis is plenty good enough athlete to float defensively ……also good enough to play LF without getting hurt. 2025: Lewis in LF for 80 games - DH for 30 games - 1B for 30 games. Wallner in RF……maybe Larnach or Rodriguez in LF and RF depth…………..maybe Lewis finds a home at 1B & Kirilloff goes back to LF? ‘25 line-up: Julien - Lee - Kirilloff - Lewis - Buxton - Correa - Wallner - Jeffers - numerous DH options, maybe even Miranda after a good season in ‘24? ……..on paper, in February ‘24, this looks like a September/October ’24 line-up
  15. JD-TWINS
    …….,not trying to beat this to death but sometimes addition by subtraction is an improvement as well. No Gallo flailing - No Miranda flailing - No watching Jorge Lopez grin after he walked 2 guys and gave up a HR……..3-4 different times - as much as it pains me to point out (a fan) No Nick Gordon stinking it up for 6 weeks out of the gate in ‘24 - No Moran looking great & then walking 2 guys with 2 outs and giving up runs allowing only one single OR starting an inning (while ahead by 1 or 2) with a walk. Just average performance in the replacement of these guys is a real positive for probable W’s, IMO.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Nationally, who hypes the Twins??? Lewis was part of the plan going into ‘23 with some mild optimism coming off 2 years of ACL tears. Wallner was a maybe call-up & expected to be a middling player. Julien was interesting after the World Baseball Event, big maybe? Now the #1 - #3 - #7 guys in the line-up 70% of the year this year. Not hope nor hype. They can all play. Expecting Buxton to contribute more with good health - 40 CF starts & 70 starts at DH - CC hitting 22 HR & .255 BA should be reasonable from the #6 spot in the line-up. Paddack, is better than Maeda at this point in their careers. Maeda threw 106 innings last year……gotta be able to match that. Gray is gone - Team was 15-18 in his starts in ‘23. He had an OK 5 inning start & win v. Toronto (picked a guy off 2B to escape a jam) & a poor outing v. Astros. Can Varland - Festa - DeSclafani go .500 - that’s the question…I think they can and it’s not hope based. Bullpen was picked to be Best in the AL by FanGraphs before they picked up Okert. Seen as #3 Pen in the game. Kirilloff/Santana at 1B should be a solid platoon! I like their chances because I believe in the talent not because I hope they win a lot because I have a Twins hat. Not sure how the Team hasn’t improved?
  17. JD-TWINS
    Wallner & Julien both had OBP’s of .370 plus……they’ll both be around for 500-550 AB’s instead of 250 AB. Assuming these guys are both going to suck is not reality. Too talented. Miranda has a great chance of not seeing Minneapolis all year……in a uniform.
  18. JD-TWINS
    Having a long guy, with 7 other more specific role guys, allows the Team to rest 2/3 of relievers in a night. i.e. Ober goes 5 1/3 and it’s 2-2………..Thielbar or whoever comes in and gets out of inning. Long guy goes 6th-8th……if ahead Duran comes in for the 9th. If they are down, somebody gets an inning of work in the 9th. Jax/Stewart/Topa/whoever get the night off. Seems there is value in this approach. Probably more likely if they are up 3 or down 2-3 runs. In a tight game the Team probably uses all high leverage guys.
  19. JD-TWINS
    First, to me, 2 inning outing isn’t a long relief appearance. I’m thinking 3 1/3 or in that range….45-65 pitches. Once through the line-up. All generalities here but expectation of more than 2 innings. I think the reason Sands sat so long & was on the roster was because they thought he was the most experienced, best, 8th guy for the Pen. They still didn’t trust he’d get guys out though. Bad situation for player & the club……this year there are plenty of arms/bodies to choose from……..assuming guys are pitching effectively.
  20. JD-TWINS
    It’s not hard to use a long reliever if you think he can get guys out - great way to rest a bullpen. Twins “long relievers” have been the 8th guy out in the roster because there was no better option. This year they have options as well as guys they could use as a long guy.
  21. JD-TWINS
    A major rub with Lopez before arriving here was “injury issues”……….after a 2nd clean year in ‘23 I hear nothing of his history of “breaking down”………..everyone in pro sports is up against potential injury, it’s a given risk. The 167 innings in ‘23 for Ober was a great sign of his capabilities if he maintains health. To get to that level of innings with a MLB 3.43 ERA is nothing but positive!! If he throws 160 innings at MLB level and Ryan throws 170 innings and Lopez 180 innings, they all will have met the low bar for work load. 90 starts. Fresh for Playoffs. (35% of total workload) With DeSclafani - Varland - Paddack - Festa - SWR - Headrick - Canterino, 7 guys for 2 spots, it seems the depth is in place. This, with the dozen bullpen options, seems to be enough to get things accomplished. 420 innings between these 7 guys over 72 starts. (29% of total workload) Jax-Stewart-Staumont-Funderburk-Okert-Thielbar-Duran-Alcala-Topa-Weiss-Winder-Sands plus 3-4 more guys as needed to cover 520 innings from the Pen. (36% of total workload)…….this group will get some contributions from DeSclafani-Headrick-Canterino & late in the year from Varland &/or Paddack. Sign another FA starter (Bonus!) between now & March 5 and the workload keeps getting spread out & the depth looks even better.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Paddack in the Pen would be a real luxury & weapon. Great way to protect the arm & inning total. New signing would need to be somebody pretty top shelf for the Twins to consider this route. Doubt Paddack would be in favor. If he could start a couple months or into July & then dial back to bullpen assassin the 2nd half it would be great. Top 3 - new guy - DeSclafani/Varland/Festa would allow Paddack to Pen sooner than later. Interesting. All hinges on another acquisition to kick off new options. Fingers crossed.
  23. JD-TWINS
    Seems that early in the year, while watching pitch counts even more so, a long guy seems to be wise. Can even rotate the “long guys” with options.
  24. JD-TWINS
    Tony O……my guy back as far as I can remember……maybe ‘68? Love that guy!! Liked Kepler’s final card, “I’m still here, Valentine”……nice.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Gotta say that before this evening I never paid attention to D. Keirsey at all. Looked at the invites to Spring Training and his 2023 trajectory looks pretty good! Great AA & then .264 BA & OBP of .370 at AAA in 39 games. Fast - plays CF…….seems like some competition for Martin!! He looks promising - maybe a September call up guy - at a minimum!
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