Jump to content
Can the Twins take advantage of a reeling Mets team? Join the discussion! ×
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

JD-TWINS

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4,898

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    4

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    So, my prediction/hope, which means nothing, is 40-45 starts in CF and 70 starts at DH. 2 starts per week typical in CF & 1 start for a handful of weeks. Equates to 70% of games started for a guy who averages 46% of games. A huge jump and potential impact on the Team’s offense. If he can hit his career average of .239, he’ll hit 25 HR & 25 doubles without a problem in only 450-480 AB’s. Going into the Playoffs with him at a healthy level and able to start 50% of the time in CF & DH other games as it makes sense, that would be interesting. TWINS have had expectations, hopes of Byron playing CF for 125-140 games a number of years (140 games in 2017)……..never passed 100 games total but once. Expecting 80 starts in CF is nice to say but realistically, 1/2 that would be fine if he can contribute in the box 80 additional games at DH.
  2. JD-TWINS
    March/April 2023, having signed Correa to $35M/yr again - now for 6 years & Vazquez for $10M/yr & 3 years……..people complaining routinely about the Team’s lack of spending, poor roster, and FO futility. Taylor - Solano - Farmer - Castro were added for depth for about $13M total and none of them were worthwhile for many here. Nothing but good results from these guys for 6 months. The everyday roster is solid. Nobody’s roster is perfect. Can complain about whatever one likes but this roster is fine and there’s depth everywhere with youth nearly ready in St Paul as well. Could use another starter to be high end competitive - no argument!
  3. JD-TWINS
    Never said they might not want to trade one or even two pitching pieces. Seems obvious they would IF everyone heals properly. I don’t think they want to nor would consider trading them to a Top contender they may need to meet, beat in the Playoffs. Twins/Seattle/Yankees/etc. …….15 teams in the N.L. & probably 6-7 teams in A.L. to negotiate with that wouldn’t threaten them in the near-term.
  4. JD-TWINS
    Their payroll was at $154M in ‘23 & the “norm” in the game is that most organizations increase payroll 5% - 10% annually under normal conditions. Twins were #17 in baseball in ‘23 and spending commensurate to their local market size. With no interruptions in TV revenue going into ‘24, the baseline total would have normally been $162M, at a minimum. TV deal in ‘23 was $54M, I believe - this year it’s 85% of that, proclaimed here somewhere. That’s $48.5M instead of $54M. There’s a difference between the two TV total’s of $5.5M less, that is to remain level in ‘24, to the spending in ‘23. Typical conditions payroll should/would have been $162M - the ‘24 payroll with TV revenue adjusted for reduced TV $$ ($5.5M) should be $156M. Currently, most agree that the payroll for ‘24 sits at $124M. I understand the organization decided to reduce spending “due to TV $$ uncertainty”. Seems there is room for J. Montgomery at $26M/year OR Clevinger/Duvall for total of $25M/year and the total payroll stays at $150M maximum. If either of these spending moves are made the Twins would be the favorite in the AL or at least a strong contender! I have never been critical of the FO (supportive) - organization’s level of spending - managing of Baldelli - etc……..don’t understand how the ownership/FO would not NOW act on solidifying this team as a Pennant favorite.
  5. JD-TWINS
    Buxton will have to DH a bunch……..potentially, if Lee is good early and is moved up, either Lewis or Julien have to DH as well. No place for J.D. Martinez……..particularly at $20M. Same with Soler. The Rangers aren’t going to trade any extra pitching they may have to the Twins. We probably don’t want to supplement their roster with any position players that could contribute either.
  6. JD-TWINS
    Bauer had a lot more problems than his off the field activities! As you mention, a “players coach” like Francona couldn’t stand him - he was arrogant in his time here in Cincinnati - his Dodger career was not smooth! Clevinger, vilified here in TD for the most part. What I found in a cursory search was that a former female friend made accusations - he had moved on with someone else and the former wanted a pound of flesh. MLB interviewed 15 people around the situation and gave Clevinger no penalty…….,They suspended Bauer for hundreds of games and he appealed & got it reduced to under 200 games. Pretty different situations. Clevinger had a 9-9 record with the lowly White Sox in ‘23. 131 innings and an ERA of 3.77. He’s a veteran that gets guys out! Assuming about $16M/yr for a couple years. Seems like the best way to add quality depth and keep trade assets for another day.
  7. JD-TWINS
    Why would they want to expose what they are trying to do if they are negotiating on multiple fronts? Seems to me the assumption is that there is always some level of working diligently towards improving the team…….that’s the bulk of the FO’s job.
  8. JD-TWINS
    If there’s a trade for pitching and either or both of Gordon/Martin gets moved. ………Adam Duvall really makes sense!
  9. JD-TWINS
    So, if they need a SS I would consider offering the following for Luzardo. Martin & Gordon as a CF platoon and SS depth as well. Potentially, they could then move Jazz Chisholm to SS to open CF for the two acquired in the trade. Larnach as a LF & DH candidate. EITHER Vazquez (with $4M from Twins) OR Camargo as the Catcher they want. The late ‘24 first round compensatory draft pick for Gray. DeSclafani, as an innings eating option to help displace Luzardo’s lost innings. 6 guys…….(their choice at Catcher between youth or veteran) Martin/Gordon are decent Left/Right option in CF and/or RF. Larnach. A first round pick and an additional veteran arm for your staff. Twins give up the $8M to help cover DeSclafani’s salary. Giving the Marlins their choice of 2 Prospects and just crossing out the untouchables “Top 10” maybe that’s received better? Any 3 from the “veteran list”, Larnach - Miranda - Gordon - Sands - Headrick - Winder - DeSclafani (with $8M) - Vazquez (with $4M). With one of available prospects of Martin or Camargo. Then 1 of the #10 - #20 prospects, Marlins choice. Compensatory pick for Gray.
  10. JD-TWINS
    A bit of an aside from just Sands…….was looking at an article in The Athletic - says FanGraphs, for what it’s worth, has the Twin’s Pen at #3 in the game for ‘24 and #1 in the American League. 26 man Pen: Duran - Thielbar - Stewart - Jax - Topa - Alcala - Staumont - Jackson 40 man Pen depth: Sands - Funderburk - Winder - Weiss………..in the October mix…….Canterino & either Paddack or Varland……..that’s impressive! I think Funderburk has the spot identified with Staumont out of Spring Training. Also, Canterino may be groomed for the Pen starting around July 1 in St. Paul, to be added to big club in September.
  11. JD-TWINS
    So, if he were a 3 year college player that was now 22, his path forward should be AA this Spring - AAA by August or for sure next April, or a disappointment in progress. (basically, a Brooks Lee progression) He’s 20 though. Being in the Show at 22 or a disappointment in his progress/development seems harsh to me. Wallner got his first taste of the Show at 24………..Lee has a pretty good pedigree to date through his college years and draft pick status - he’s starting in AAA at age 23 and he’s the next guy on the Prospect List. Seems Rodriguez has plenty of time to develop!
  12. JD-TWINS
    A .340 OBP & .257 BA with an OPS+ of 106 all point to a guy that should be in the line-up if possible. 2.6 WAR with 358 AB’s projects to a WAR over 4.0 if used for a full year. He may regress - he may improve? No reason to think any of us know which. Decent defense at 3 positions with 33 PLUS steal speed is even more of a reason to expect this guy to be a big part of the Club in ‘24. 32 XBH in 358 AB’s is a nice rate. Frankly, I can’t imagine Buxton playing more than 40-50 games in CF, & that’s a stretch for me. Assuming 45 starts - that’s 1050 innings left to cover. Gordon/Martin combination have to cover at least 40% of those innings in my opinion. If Gordon hits at all in Spring Training, I think he’s the left handed hitting back up in CF with Castro getting another shot at some LF v. LH pitching - resting Wallner while playing most innings in CF, up to half the time. Gordon can also sprinkle in some innings at 2B if absolutely necessary due to someone getting nicked. If Martin displaces Gordon, he too can play 2B on as absolutely necessary basis. Martin’s options and the fact that Gordon hits LH (w/zero options) gives Gordon the nod out of Spring Training. To me, Castro will start 110 games and play in another 35-40 off the bench. Gordon/Martin will battle for last roster spot & balance of CF innings.
  13. JD-TWINS
    He’s only 20 is what I take away the most. If he has the same stats with no media/TD fans player ranking & expectations, he’d be a really promising “young guy” in the system……..1975 speak. Anyway, if he’s at AA all year and strikes out a little less while maintaining a similar OBP of .375 plus, down due to a few more swings - being a bit more aggressive……….that’s great progress. End of Kepler’s deal & Buxton’s dubious availability shouldn’t influence this kid’s timing to the Show. AAA in ‘25, with maybe a late call up in September seems to be pretty fast track to me. I thought for the past 8-9 months that he was 22 or so due to the predictions/talk of him coming up late ‘24. Coming to Spring Training with high hopes in ‘26 at age 22 seems to be a fairly aggressive progression to me!
  14. JD-TWINS
    Agree, it’s pitch mix & control……..I guess that’s kind of pitching 101. Ober & Thielbar are maxed out at or below Sands velocity. They both “know how to pitch” and can hit spots/throw strikes as needed. He’ll either adjust (with coach & catcher help) to a fresh pitch mix, with decent control or he’ll wash out getting his fastball hammered while walking too many. Fingers crossed.
  15. JD-TWINS
    IMO it’s about command with his pitches. He got down to around 3 walks per 9 in St Paul last year & that works. Ober throws similar if not lesser fastball velocity but he spots it pretty well. Sinker, cutter, & curveball (as you mentioned) should take up closer to 75% of his pitches - getting the fastball down to 25-30%. This is obvious, to get guys out routinely. His challenge is can he use that type of pitch mix & not walk a bunch of guys. If yes, it seems he could be pretty solid.
  16. JD-TWINS
    All good……..I struggle with very few acknowledgments in TD about Gordon’s 2022. However, Trevor Larnach’s lack of real success seems to be OK & he “needs 1500 AB’s” to know where he will be at as a hitter. I don’t dislike the idea of continuing to give Larnach opportunities & I think Martin has a better probable future than Gordon with the organization. Gordon will get a shot if he’s near a reasonable offensive player this Spring. Can potentially get positive contribution - can groom to be a trade piece - can potentially DFA.
  17. JD-TWINS
    The “Other One” would routinely sell out the ballpark! Been listening since Abraxas, roughly 1971. My college age brother had a copy and got scolded by our Mom for having it in the house around his 9 year old brother. An interesting, artful jacket cover! Hoping “this one” gives us a small dose of the guitar player’s success.
  18. JD-TWINS
    I agree, frankly, I think Miranda could hit .450 this Spring and not make the 26 man roster. Santana signing sealed his fate ………if he’s really good they may trade him but doubtful. He’s a perfect offset for Kirilloff at 1B starting in ‘25. Bubba Thompson has speed…….been released multiple times. Gordon had a terrible start last year and broke his leg May 16. 2022 Gordon hit .272 - 28 doubles - 9 HR in 405 AB’s with the Big Club. He started at 3 positions regularly. Not sure what’s not to like there. Much better than anything I saw in Thompson’s history. He may not fit the Twins roster but he’ll get a shot if he’s at any reasonable level of offense in Spring Training. Martin hit .260 in AAA with no power. I like him going forward but don’t see any definitive distinction for him over Gordon.
  19. JD-TWINS
    The # of starts for Martin aren’t there in Mpls. - I think 3-4 a week is a real stretch with Castro & Farmer ahead of him………..Gordon is out of options……biggest reason. He either makes the Team or they move him. 405 AB’s in ‘22. He had 28 doubles & 9 HR & hit .272…………..All in the Show, not, AA or a Fall League. Started at 2B much of the beginning of the season then played LF & CF. Started 43 games in CF. Experience and belief in a guy that’s done it in the Majors. He deserves a shot. I don’t think Gordon is necessarily ahead of Martin but there’s no reason to put Martin ahead of Gordon until they both get a look this Spring.
  20. JD-TWINS
    Sounds like he at least matches up to Ober in Mph - right? Ober is very effective with 3 pitches, principally. SWR supposedly has 4-5 pitches. Seems his command is what will make or break him. Facing essentially all guys older than him leaves me with some optimism that he can continue to refine and be better.
  21. JD-TWINS
    Gallo hit terribly from late May through the year. He wasn’t going to be on the Playoff roster (obvious by early July) but hung around as insurance. He played 4 positions and a lot more 1B than expected with Kirilloff’s problems. They had a couple extra spots in September & he played some as needed. They were paying him either way so why not use him to the nth degree? Not a great signing is probably an understatement at $11M but he contributed with his glove regularly & with his availability…….handful of exciting HR’s.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Pretty sure Santana had 23 HR in ‘23 & Gallo had 21 last year…….one is considered a HR guy. Santana is less versatile but every bit as good at 1B. Similarity is that he’ll be available! $6M less money spent. Absolutely no problem with signing Santana. Great history posting in the lineup whenever needed combined with way better defense than Miranda at 1B. Good power and good history v. LH pitching. Miranda has options if there’s an opening. He needs to prove he’s a major league hitter once again - big reduction on pressure to make that happen immediately with addition of Santana.
  23. JD-TWINS
    Making a Pennant push & there’s no signs that Severino will be ready for that on Opening Day. Miranda is an offensive crapshoot that doesn’t play very good defense so reducing that risk was wise. Martin’s not playing any 1B in the near term. Anybody can be worse than expected. Hope he holds together! Hasn’t missed extensive time since 2014 - another reason to have him paired with Kirilloff. He lines up with Farmer & possibly Martin as guys that can be plugged in v. LH pitching and excel.
  24. JD-TWINS
    Seems Kirilloff owns 1B v. RH pitching, so maybe 70-75% of games. That leaves 150-180 AB’s minimum for Santana at 1B. Also, he seems to be the probable DH when Buxton plays OF so Castro can be ready in a flex role off the bench as needed……,another 150-180 AB’s. Pinch hitting - some starts for rest……he may pick up another 60-80 AB’s. 350-400 AB’s and that’s with perfect health with Kirilloff……maybe more? Hoping for 15 HR and some good 1B play. Good clubhouse guy as well! Nice pick up to mitigate the risk with Miranda.
  25. JD-TWINS
    It seems that there’s room for improvement with Festa but he just doesn’t have 3 pitches - they All grade out toward Plus pitches…….that’s my assumption of a difference.
×
×
  • Create New...