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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    A major rub with Lopez before arriving here was “injury issues”……….after a 2nd clean year in ‘23 I hear nothing of his history of “breaking down”………..everyone in pro sports is up against potential injury, it’s a given risk. The 167 innings in ‘23 for Ober was a great sign of his capabilities if he maintains health. To get to that level of innings with a MLB 3.43 ERA is nothing but positive!! If he throws 160 innings at MLB level and Ryan throws 170 innings and Lopez 180 innings, they all will have met the low bar for work load. 90 starts. Fresh for Playoffs. (35% of total workload) With DeSclafani - Varland - Paddack - Festa - SWR - Headrick - Canterino, 7 guys for 2 spots, it seems the depth is in place. This, with the dozen bullpen options, seems to be enough to get things accomplished. 420 innings between these 7 guys over 72 starts. (29% of total workload) Jax-Stewart-Staumont-Funderburk-Okert-Thielbar-Duran-Alcala-Topa-Weiss-Winder-Sands plus 3-4 more guys as needed to cover 520 innings from the Pen. (36% of total workload)…….this group will get some contributions from DeSclafani-Headrick-Canterino & late in the year from Varland &/or Paddack. Sign another FA starter (Bonus!) between now & March 5 and the workload keeps getting spread out & the depth looks even better.
  2. JD-TWINS
    Paddack in the Pen would be a real luxury & weapon. Great way to protect the arm & inning total. New signing would need to be somebody pretty top shelf for the Twins to consider this route. Doubt Paddack would be in favor. If he could start a couple months or into July & then dial back to bullpen assassin the 2nd half it would be great. Top 3 - new guy - DeSclafani/Varland/Festa would allow Paddack to Pen sooner than later. Interesting. All hinges on another acquisition to kick off new options. Fingers crossed.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Seems that early in the year, while watching pitch counts even more so, a long guy seems to be wise. Can even rotate the “long guys” with options.
  4. JD-TWINS
    Tony O……my guy back as far as I can remember……maybe ‘68? Love that guy!! Liked Kepler’s final card, “I’m still here, Valentine”……nice.
  5. JD-TWINS
    Gotta say that before this evening I never paid attention to D. Keirsey at all. Looked at the invites to Spring Training and his 2023 trajectory looks pretty good! Great AA & then .264 BA & OBP of .370 at AAA in 39 games. Fast - plays CF…….seems like some competition for Martin!! He looks promising - maybe a September call up guy - at a minimum!
  6. JD-TWINS
    Zero chance of playing in Cincinnati for Bubba - maybe they see a year in AAA Louisville can get him to a tradable level?…….they are deep everywhere right now with needing to convert a 2021 ROY infielder in India, to OF. Moved Spencer Steer to LF full time. They have two CF & two power hitting RF. All 27 & under. Infield FULL of young guys that can hit!
  7. JD-TWINS
    I know the rules…….thanks. He has been supposedly not sound here in TD for the past week. I thought it didn’t make sense since he probably had to take an incoming physical. Back strain - sore arm - elbow tweak…….all very subjective maladies. Just can’t have the GM ordering the issue is real across. multiple employees for multiple players. You think Joey Gallo was hurt late last year when they wanted to keep him on roster but not on 26 man. Curious. Reference is Judge Shmales in CaddyShack.😉
  8. JD-TWINS
    Not trying to stir up stuff here - would assume runs per game (more the better) associate to wins, generally. The missing pieces are how skewed the runs scored may be across a number of games. For instance, the Team may have scored 7 runs in 3 of Gray’s starts & 1 or 2 in 6 other games. He may go 3-4 and pitch really well in all 9 games! This outcome, while having 3.75 runs per 9 support. This is just theoretical but could be why stats get misrepresented. The other issue is that I’m assuming the “run support” per starter is based on the 9 inning score of their associated starts. If they leave the game tied or behind & the runs come later in the game they are probably not getting a win OR if they pitch well & have a lead & then the bullpen can’t hold the lead. Another negative outcome.
  9. JD-TWINS
    I get their close and both have upside. I have not seen Raya but have seen Festa in clip from Future’s Game. He looked good to me - very specific footage, granted. One thing I think is true though - can’t be very critical of Festa’s inability to get through 5 innings comfortably & having Raya never pitched completely through the line-up a second time. Seems contradictory? Could be a problem for them both!! Good news is the Twins Pen is strong enough to support a few starts when the guy only goes 3 2/3 - 5 1/3 in a start. I really think Festa is starting 2-3 games by June. Relating to article, it seems Festa is closer but Raya may have more upside……. nobody really knows at this point. Interesting to see where they fit in April of ‘25.
  10. JD-TWINS
    Agreed. My thought is they may start with Varland in that slot & then bring DeSclafani back to Bigs in May/June after a long stint on the IL and much rehabilitation. Varland can option to St. Paul & cruise back to the Big Club in August? Festa is primed to help for 10 starts sprinkled through the summer months as well.
  11. JD-TWINS
    No guarantees with injuries - that’s unquestioned. Santana hasn’t missed any serious time since 2014 - durability, or belief in it is why I (Twins FO) think he pairs with Kirilloff so well - one will be in the line-up for sure ………Kirilloff more often with good health. I’ve heard rumblings of DeSclafani’s ill health over the last week here. Discouraging but not terribly surprising. My question/doubt about the accuracy on this topic is that it seems typical to have to pass a physical before trades consummate, correct?? Why would Twins accept damaged goods? I guess they could view him as mid-season upside and not very critical in the trade??? Curious.
  12. JD-TWINS
    Everything could be a problem area! Everything may be a grand success!! Gotta rely on something - every staff can’t have 4 - 20 game winners. Paddack is, at this point in their careers, better than Kenta Maeda………doesn’t mean he’ll win more games but he should pitch a similar amount of innings & with better stuff. Reasonable? Varland/DeSclafani/Festa are charged with having a similar or better record than Gray’s ‘2023. He was 8-8. The Team was 15-18 in his starts. He threw 184 innings. My assumption is between the 3 of them they’ll throw 250 innings. I truly believe the Team can have a .500 record in the games started by these 3 guys, with their abilities, mildly improved offense & a better bullpen this doesn’t seem at all like a “stretch”. For sure, Go Twins!
  13. JD-TWINS
    Does this mean if the replacement pitcher’s ERA is above 2.79 the Team can’t win more than 15 of 33 starts?
  14. JD-TWINS
    Good news - just saw on MLB.com that Pablo Lopez is their #1 candidate for Cy Young just ahead of Cole. Encouraging to see from a non- homer point of view! An upbeat aside……Brandon Pfaadt was 3-9 in 19 starts and 96 innings for the D-backs last year and he was somewhat of a post season hero for them. Hoping for Big things from Louie Varland this year - 100 innings & maybe an ERA south of 4.25???
  15. JD-TWINS
    Agreed - anything is possible!! Would love something like that out of the blue!!!! The number though, won’t/can’t be around $20M - unfortunately.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Expectation…..offense is more consistent and has better run production. Wallner’s numbers in 213 AB’s were very good…..regardless of strikeout %. Agreed, would also like to see it under 30% at a minimum. Lewis - Julien - Wallner for 1,500-1,600 combined AB’s in ‘24 v. approximately 750-800 in ‘23. Bullpen is better. Buxton & CC will have somewhat better health and have to improve somewhat offensively. Team was under .500 a handful of games in Gray/Maeda’s starts. To me it seems the risk and unknowns are spread around the roster enough so that the outcome will be positive without everything being perfect.
  17. JD-TWINS
    Snell wants $30M for 9 years ………Montgomery wants $25M for 6 years. There's a big valley between those numbers & $20M for a year with some incentives. I understand the potential for a more Team friendly deal at this point but these guys could contact 10 different teams that would pay either guy 4 years for $27M/yr in a heartbeat!! CC signed for 3 years with him having the options for years 2 & 3. $35M/year…..also considerably different than around $20M. Would love Montgomery but realistically he needs at least 5 years to sign anything IMO.
  18. JD-TWINS
    How about????……….better offense - more consistent offense - better Pen…….seems obvious how a TEAM wins more games if they give up more runs from starters. My point is the TEAM’s fate didn’t revolve around Sonny Gray & their fate in ‘24 should be upbeat in the 32 starts or so in which he will be replaced. He started 20% of the games and the TEAM had a losing record - period. Nobody’s dogging Sonny Gray. Just stating the reality that the Twins can go 16-16 in the same 32 starts in ‘24 without Sonny Gray and an ERA of 2.79. They may go 10-22 or they may go 19-13……….we’ll see. Don’t understand why Lopez - Ober - Ryan wouldn’t be expected to improve their W-L records with better offense expectations and better bullpen expectations? Do you predict a regression to mediocrity with these 3? 11-8……8-6……11-10 respectively. With similar or somewhat better offense, a mild expectation I think, the results get better. With a higher performing Pen the results get better. These 3 guys combining for a win - loss total of better than 30-24 is not some blue sky thought. To me STAFF ERA matters a bunch but a guy individually bringing it down (isn’t critical) and not winning games (Team not winning) doesn’t contribute to the big goal of team wins. Another question is can Paddack out perform Maeda’s ‘23?. Started 20 games - threw 106 innings - 4.23 ERA & was 6-8…….it seems he should be able to match that or even better those outcomes - reasonable?
  19. JD-TWINS
    Gray pitched well - deserved a better fate in many games! Not placing blame on him - the TEAM outcomes are what they were when he pitched. No bonus points for a low ERA. Bottom line going forward is can DeSclafani & Varland combine for 184 innings - maybe 200 innings and go .500? If that’s possible or probable, Gray has been successfully replaced. The Playoff mystique is just that. Gray won a 5 inning start v. Toronto and had to pick a guy off 2B to escape a big jam. Well done but hardly dominant…….His start against Astros was not good. I’m upbeat about the staff, as is, but certainly wouldn’t shy away from another starter addition. Nobody said it was his fault. Just reminding TD people he wasn’t dominant in the win-loss columns. No bonus points in the standings for ERA. Better chance to win with lower ERA, obviously. A starter with an ERA sub 3.00 necessary to get wins? No. The outcomes & innings are what need to be replaced. Can Varland & DeSclafani go .500 and eat up 184-200 innings? That’s the question. His post season outings in ‘23 were OK (with a big pick off) & poor. I think that’s fair.
  20. JD-TWINS
    Like the TEAM as put together now. Like the assumed 26 man here!! That said, can’t defend DeSclafani in the 5th spot if health is a question mark at this point. Hopefully, there will be a better picture of how he’s doing by March 1. So Buxton in CF is tenuous - Larnach as the 13th position player limits flexibility in the OF as he’s a duplicate of Kepler & Wallner and none are able to play CF - saw in MLB article that Miranda is projected to be rostered out of Spring Training & not Larnach……don’t see that w/o an injury between Kirilloff/Santana. Would prefer to live on the edge with Buxton’s health and assume Castro/Martin can handle CF if he’s got a problem with health. Gotta rely on the potential RH outfield bat coming from AAA as needed. Spend on FA starter………Clevinger or even Ryu……..Montgomery in a perfect world. Not absolutely necessary but a really good idea, obviously!
  21. JD-TWINS
    Absolutely correct! FanGraphs had the Pen as #1 in the AL & #3 in the game, & that’s prior to adding Okert. CC can’t be as bad as last year offensively! Buxton playing in 100 - 120 games would be huge offensively. If he can make some more contact & get the average closer to career average (.240) it will be a big boost. Martin & Lee both developing in St. Paul for a couple months early and ready if needed is a luxury. Wallner - Julien - Lewis ALL year!! Ober is very solid! Ryan’s not much different with health coupled with decent command (big deals in MLB obviously). Paddack’s stuff plays well - keeping him fresh will be the challenge. TEAM was 15-18 in Gray’s starts last year and the goal is to win games - not to replace ERA levels. Great respect to Gray’s ability but we need to be competitive & that’s it - don’t need to match same stats.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Wallner is obviously the starting LF! 139 OPS+……26 XBH with 14 HR in 213 AB’s ……great arm, needs to tame emotions with the arm……….anything like this over 500 AB’s and he’s a star. Larnach is getting an opportunity IF they don’t bring anyone else in & IF Martin doesn’t impress big time in Spring. Martin could be the guy if Buxton falters at all in Spring. Larnach is a good option within the organization to DH v. RH pitching. Larnach has an opportunity to be the LH bat option in LF when Wallner moves to RF & Kepler moves on in ‘25. Castro will get his AB’s through CF principally - 3B some - entering in middle of games in different spots as advantageous.
  23. JD-TWINS
    Miranda can’t play OF & Santana is best hitter from right side, so Jose is SOL unless one of the 1B is hurt.
  24. JD-TWINS
    Nobody is subbing for Julien v. RH pitching so that’s a non issue. You mention circumstances - that’s the point I keep making over & over. Circumstances are that we don’t have any other guys to play OF - particularly CF. I think most of his time will be there - I don’t doubt he will be in the line-up v. RH pitching, I’m just assuming Lewis & CC will play 135-140 games each without injury. Castro is principally in the OF/CF and even at DH v. RH pitching. IMO.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Castro played SS - 6 times in ‘23 - and Zero times after May 15th as an FYI. 3B a bunch of times with Lewis injuries and slow start early in the year - then Farmer was out because he got hit in the face by a pitch.
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