Two Twins Pitching Prospects Poised to Crack National Top-100 Lists

Does it really matter?  Not much.  A prospect is a suspect until he proves himself.  Most prospects don't make it to MLB.  But it is good to have a solid foundation.  I hope they do well.

Nice to be in a position where when we call up players we are actually calling up guys who offer some hope.  Unlike 8-10 years ago when a guy came up and you knew he'd never amount to anything.

23 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Does it really matter?  Not much.  A prospect is a suspect until he proves himself.  Most prospects don't make it to MLB.  But it is good to have a solid foundation.  I hope they do well.

And we, most assuredly, have dozens of those who won't make it.  Feels like these two will.  But, I totally understand, that's why they play the games.

You've got to think Morris will start next season at AAA, which could have a very strong rotation.  Depending on where Festa starts next year, AAA could have Festa, Mathews and Morris as their top three starters.  

Understand why he isn't considered in this conversation, but I believe that Prielipp may be the best of all these guys.  Just needs to put his extended injuries behind him......and stay healthy.

Should be interesting to see how the two young pitchers taken in this draft will perform.  With the FCL done early, will either be pitching this year?

2 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Does it really matter?  Not much.  A prospect is a suspect until he proves himself.  Most prospects don't make it to MLB.  But it is good to have a solid foundation.  I hope they do well.

6 of the Twins top 10 position players by WAR and 7 of the top 10 pitchers were drafted or acquired as prospects.   I just don't understand the logic that says most will fail so none of them matter.   It's because most fail that it does matter.  That's why we have a couple hundred of them.  Prospects doing well and moving up these lists increase the odds of them making it.  The fact that most fail is the reason we should be encouraged by prospects performing well.  There is nothing nearly as important as developing unproven players, especially to small and mid-market teams.   Marginalizing the most important element of success for a MLB team just does not make sense to me.   

Festa, Zebby and Morris should probably all be at AAA throughout the end of the year. Because of injuries and lack of deadline or off-season moves, we're going to be forced to rely on these guys before they're fully ready. We've already seen how it hasn't really worked out either Festa in his few starts. Hopefully Mathews takes the opportunity and runs with it, but I'm preparing myself for some serious growing pains. Not the ideal scenario while in a playoff chase ..

Add Adrian Bohorquez to the list as well. I think there are some interesting arms in the Twins system. We have Woods Richardson and Festa on the roster with Matthews up now and Varland available.

In the minors, any of Morris, Soto, Bohorquez, and Prielipp could crack a list of top prospects. Fun to watch.

What this season is showing that we are developing more and more pitching.  Like Festa shows,  they still have some things to work on.  However, they add value to the overall organization.  Festa, Matthews, Soto and Priellip have major green arrows and all look like pitchers that help the big league team (wither currently and/or in the future).  For what was considered one of the organization biggest black marks, it has quickly turned into a major boon for the organization.  Who would have thought we would have this many quality arms in the minors.  It also gives us some trade chips in the future.  

For young pitchers you have SWR, Festa and Matthews that all could command pretty high value if you would want to trade one.  Soto could have the highest trade value of any of them. We will see what Varland can do for the remainder of the season.  In either case that is a lot of depth to go into next year with.  

The level of Twins pitching development success has been impressive. Have to give FO credit. It will be critical that this continues given the payroll limitations. I am impressed and optimistic that next years rotation will be as good, if not better than, this years. Ober and SWR improvement proves that the development does not stop when players hit the MLB 26 man roster. 
Really impressed with SWR this year. He has poise and confidence that can’t be taught, along with his physical tools. I’ve yet to see him wilt on the mound when facing a good or great lineup. His start the other day against Cleveland was extremely impressive and shows his potential. I’m a little confused when national and some local pundits say his ceiling is mid-rotation. After what he did against Cleveland and some work in the offseason, he has as much of a chance to be top of the rotation as any other prospect in baseball.

Good luck to Matthews and I’m excited to watch his debut. He sounds like a potential ace. Fans and the organization will have to be patient with him, but this is the most optimistic I’ve been about the rotation in a long time. 
 

The depth of the pitching in the org is far above where it has been in the past.  We've had good pitching prospects in the past, but the bust rate is so high that there are so few prospects that you feel confident about being good MLB pitchers.  Having these two as the 3-4 pitchers, and a host of intriguing guys behind them gives us the ability to deal with most of them being busts.

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Prospect rank is important. It's important to the teams who have control over the prospect and teams who are looking to acquire talent as well. Prospect rank is a competition in it's own right for teams.

Morris is probably knocking at the top 100 door.

Soto? I'm not sure about that. Fangraphs had him way down in the Twins' system at 15th or so in their mid year update. Soto wasn't expected to move fast because of how raw he was so him still being in A ball over a year after being drafted isn't terrible. Fangraphs' scouting report indicates the Twins had him working a lot on his changeup rather than looking for best performance so the rough ERA can be overlooked as well. Still, there isn't much room in a top 100 prospect's list, and it'd represent a major leap. Production alone probably doesn't get him there. He's going to need to move up a level and produce IMHO.

Fangraphs prospect guy often has takes that are far different than other outlets.  His changeup has been his best pitch getting a 44% whiff rate and looks like it a 60 grade pitch.  A big part of his improvement has throwing way less cutters (which were getting shelled) and doing a much better job limiting damage off the fastball.

IMO both Morris and Soto are top 200 but not 100 guys and pretty close to each other.  Morris much more likely to be a contributor, but doesn't strike out a ton of guys at AA and not sure there is much projection left.  Soto has a ton to work on, but the velo/changeup combination is not something every organization has.  He had a higher A-ball K% at 18 than Morris did at 21.

15 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

And we, most assuredly, have dozens of those who won't make it.  Feels like these two will.  But, I totally understand, that's why they play the games.

 

There are lots of twins draft picks that won’t make it but we do uve ones that have high ceilings and solid floors. Its a completely different scenario than 10-25 years ago.  Those years were brutal in high end player development.

14 hours ago, Dman said:

It's a pretty nice nice top 9 arms in the system if you ask me>  Don't forget Culpepper was rated higher than Morris, Matthews, Lewis and Prielipp at MLB.com and his being injured has dropped his stock but the stuff is there. The rest while maybe not elite show potential and if they don't make it as starters could be very good relievers.  The list below doesn't include the intriguing Carpenter who might be a fairly fast mover or Hill who looks like he will take longer but could be an elite lefty. 

That's a lot of good arms with four of them pretty close to ready in Festa, Matthews, Morris, Lewis. With Culpepper, Prielipp or Raya likely to take leaps next year. Also not including wild cards in Canterino and Headrick who seem more likely to be relievers than starters, but still good arms if they come back from injury. Other arms of note would be Nowlin, Adams, Bowan and Ohl with longer odds yet, but they have been solid performers.  There are lot's of good starting arms in the system everywhere you look.

David Festa

Zebby Mathews

Andrew Morris

CJ Culpepper

Connor Prielipp

Corey Lewis

Marco Raya

Charlie Soto

Adrian Bohorquez

Tanner Hall

Spencer Bengard

Cesar Laras

Christian McCloud

Ty Langenberg

That's a pretty fun list! Soto is incredibly talented and you have him 8th...and I can't say that you're definitely wrong. (Personally, I have to drop Prielipp down the rankings until he has something resembling a healthy season, but I recognize the talent)

Twins have done a good job of drafting enough pitchers with skills they could develop in the later rounds to put a volume of pitchers into the organization where guys can emerge. The competition level to move up in the ranks for the Twins is higher now, and it sure seems like fewer guys are moving up a level on scholarship.

33 minutes ago, Dman said:

I have Soto 8th mainly because it is so early you can't tell where he will end up outcome wise.  Since he is further away I put him further down the list, but he could end up being better than all of them.  Need more data though IMO, so I dropped him and Bohorquez but you could easily argue they go much higher on the list. You could pick almost any order and I would be fine with it. It is just my biased order for the moment based more on close to ready than total talent.

Totally get it. I think my point was more that you can reasonably put someone as crazy talented as Soto 8th...and that's awesome. He's a huge upside pitcher and in many years over the past 20 would have been top 4 without having really done anything yet.

On 8/12/2024 at 10:40 PM, Fatbat said:

There are lots of twins draft picks that won’t make it but we do uve ones that have high ceilings and solid floors. Its a completely different scenario than 10-25 years ago.  Those years were brutal in high end player development.

It's so nice to be able to make the call to St. Paul and have the phone picked up by a Simien Wood-Richardson or Festa or Zebby rather than Andrew Albers or Scott Diamond or Sam Deduno.

I can sort of see why the Twins didn't pick up a starting pitcher. Ober, Ryan, and SWR have all emerged or solidified themselves. Lopez is still a good #2/3 as well with peripherals above that. Festa, Zebby, and Andrew Morris are all pretty much ready. Next season, a 7 man group that includes Lopez, Ryan, Ober SWR, Festa, Zebby, and Andrews seems pretty good.