OptimisticTwinsFan

Some of the offensive numbers are starting to come around throughout the lineup — it’s going to be tough sledding in the back of the rotation for a bit here. Buxton, Wallner, Castro with solid contributions from Jeffers/Larnach and some consistent good Lewis ABs / contact. If only Correa could get going and we can get a run of health and maybe we could see a top 10 offensive stretch for a period of time here.

People want to give up on Royce, but he’s strung together a good few games — walks and some decent contact. To the extent, he’s not had decent contact he’s had some hard luck in stretches before that. I’d bet that Royce is not a sub .200 hitter for the rest of his career.

I tuned out the Twins to focus on the Wolves after their start. I am seeing the pitching looks all wordly, especially after that 1st week -- which matches my expectations. The offensive stats look wild... what should I expect from the injuries to Correa, Buxton, Wallner, and Keaschall in terms of when they come back? Why is Lewis struggling? Are there any surprises of prospects we are excited about?

Zebby reminds me of Matt Garza or Matt Cain or Corey Kluber. Festa reminds me of a Chris Sale or Blake Snell. Andrew Morris reminds of me of a Sonny Gray type of pitcher. I keep getting more convinced by each guy but I actually think Morris might have the best stuff. That breaking ball is nasty wow.

I can sort of see why the Twins didn't pick up a starting pitcher. Ober, Ryan, and SWR have all emerged or solidified themselves. Lopez is still a good #2/3 as well with peripherals above that. Festa, Zebby, and Andrew Morris are all pretty much ready. Next season, a 7 man group that includes Lopez, Ryan, Ober SWR, Festa, Zebby, and Andrews seems pretty good.

Joe Ryan's season is in jeopardy. If Ryan is not able to make it back for the playoffs, how can the Twins build a playoff rotation that can allow them to compete? The most reliable starter that the Twins have is Bailey Ober. I have consistently been very high on Ober as a legit #2b/#3a type of starter on a contending team. Since April 5th (removing Ober's first start) Ober has the following stats: 12-4 record (21 starts) 2.98 ERA (3.37 FIP / 3.67 xFIP) 126.2 IPs (6 IP per start average) 136 Ks / 30 BBs (9.7 Ks - 2.13 BBs per 9 innings) 84 hits (.90 WHIP) This ranks: T2nd in Wins 9th in ERA 2nd in WHIP 17th in K rate, 21st in BB rate, and 15th in K/BB rate 10th in ERA-, 17th in FIP-, 28th in xFIP- This means that Ober has basically pitched at the level of a contending #2 (and probably pretty close to a contending #1 although I would say that he is a level below that) for the majority of the season. He has been benefiting from some good BABIP luck, but he is also creating some of that luck through his command and ability to mix pitches. These numbers are not that much higher than Ober's career averages, although his secondary stuff, command, and consistency have improved which has allowed him to take a jump and consistently go deeper in games against better lineups. The next step (and they needed this regardless) is Lopez finding his form. Lopez has had peripherals for most of the year that are pretty similar to his peripherals from last year and suggest results much closer to Ober/Ryan versus what he has been producing. In addition, Lopez's actual numbers have started to improve over the last month and a half even with his mediocre start in his last start. In Lopez's last 8 starts (dating back to June 23rd) his stats are as follows: 49 IP - 38 Hits - 11 BBs - 57 K's - 3.31 ERA - 1.0 WHIP This leads to advanced stats of: 10.7 K/9 - 2.02 BB/9 - 2.91 FIP - 2.85 xFIP The main thing holding him back has been a HR% of 12.2% which continues to be high, but as you can see his peripherals continue to be even better than his actual stats -- which may always be the case for Lopez. This means over this time period Lopez has ranked: 25th in ERA 25th in ERA- 8th in FIP- 4th in xFIP- To me, this suggests that Lopez is starting to pitch like he was expected to pitch to start the season even if there is additional consistency and an additional level that he can reach. Lopez has been anywhere from 20-40% above average over the last month and a half and pitching at a #2 level with peripherals that suggest closer to ace level pitching. With Lopez's stuff he is the guy you think can elevate or maintain his numbers better against better lineups than other pitchers including Ober. This means that the Twins are trending towards having two contending team-level SPs even with the Ryan injury. It is unfortunate that Ryan may not make it back this season as he was pitching at a contender #2 level as well. So the question for the Twins is how do they find a 3rd SP who they can rely on. I think SWR is a guy that can be apart of a gameplan in a non-Lopez or Ober start to go 2 times through the order (3-4 innings) in a very matchup focused way. This could be the strategy that the Twins move towards along with Paddack. I think unfortunately this probably does put the Twins in a disadvantage in Game 1 and Game 3 of a proverbial series. To me, this means the Twins post-season hopes will come down to the development and readiness of David Festa and Zebby Matthews. This is because I think both players have the kind of stuff that can play on a level of Lopez/Ryan/Ober or better. I would argue that pure stuff wise both players profile as having better stuff than any non-Lopez pitchers on the Twins staff. The question is on their command, poise, mental game, arm durability this late into a season, and ability to adjust against MLB teams adjustments as scouting reports develop on them. I think there is a lot of reason to be intrigued by Festa's last 3 starts. Against 3 playoff teams or teams in the playoff hunt he has had 3 good starts: 14.1 IP - 3 ERs - 9 hits - 5 BBs - 22 Ks This is an ERA under 2 with an insane strikeout rate of over 14 per 9 innings. Even though he hasn't been going deep into games, he's thrown 82, 68, and 72 pitches through 5 innings. This means that even though he's missing a ton of at bats and getting a lot of strikeouts he's pitching efficiently. Most of the damage that has been done to him has been in the 5th inning (and maybe once in the 6th inning) so he likely does need some additional development and maturation to learn how to get through the order for the 3rd time and maintain his command, control, and consistency as he starts to get him into the upper areas of his pitch count. I think that Festa may be able to be a guy that can provide Lopez/Ober level production 2x through the order. In the minors Festa's FB averaged about 96.5mph and so far in the pros he's been in the mid to upper 95 range on average. For reference, Lopez is at about 94.7mph, Ryan is at 93.9mph, and Ober is at 91.9mph. Although we know that Ryan and Ober have physical traits and deliveries that allow their fastballs to play as much higher velocity pitches. Festa throws harder than any of the aforementioned Twins pitchers and sits 94-97mph. In addition, Festa is 6'6 with great extension driven by his length/frame meaning that his fastball also plays even faster than his measured velocity. I am looking forward to doing additional deep dive(s) into Festa to see how much that is true based on the data. This fastball velocity and extension is a big part of the reason why he has an 11.2 K/9 rate in his minor league career. This includes a K rate of 12.3 K/9 in 150 innings above AA and 13.4 K/9 at AAA. Festa has actually missed more bats the higher he has risen levels and as he has improved his stuff. This is excited to see because normally this trend is the reverse. I think this is a strong indicator that Festa has really strong MLB stuff. In addition to his fastball, Festa has shown an increased ability, willingness, and comfortability throwing his secondary pitches. In the MLB, Festa has thrown his change-up (25%) and slider (33%) about 58% of the time. He has breaking stuff that can move at 3 different speeds and break downwards towards either side of the zone. This suggests a pitch mix that has the potential to work against both LHP and RHP. As Festa continues to develop, he has a real ability to tunnel effectively off of these pitches. You can see that in this highlight package against the Cubs. Festa is able to command his fastball at the bottom of the zone and off of this get swinging strikes with two different levels of vertical drop on the change-up and slides as hitters defend against the fastball. His change-up has really interesting hard downward breaking movement and it looks like he can throw 2 different shapes of breaking balls one that has harder vertical drop and one that moves more horizontally. And then as hitters start to lay off the breaking ball breaking out of the zone he paints the knees with a 96mph fastball. This is a pitch mix that profiles as a pitcher who can be a Ryan/Lopez level pitcher or better--a guy who can get both LH & RH hitters out and go the 3rd time through the order. For Festa, his challenge will be his command and how often he gives up home runs. I think something interesting about Festa is that while he is a FB pitcher much like Ryan, Lopez, and Ober he seems to have a pitch mix that looks for him to work in the bottom part of the zone more often. In AA/AAA, Festa walked about 4 batters per 9 innings and has given up about 1-1.2 HRs per 9 innings. This does suggest some problems for Festa. He has been improving to some degree as he advances and he has had a 2.2 BB/9 at the major league level. If he struggles to throw strikes, he will probably become more of a 3/4 in the rotation who tries to maximize through 2-2.5x through the order, not throw any pitches that teams can hit, and offsets walks with the swing and miss stuff. If he can get his BB rate under 3 per 9 innings, Festa can be a really good pitcher. As for the Twins in this season, I think the most obvious plan is to let Festa/SWR try to combine for 6-8 innings in Game 3. I think allowing Festa and SWR to maximize their velocity and not worry about pitch count can get you enough production where you shouldn't count the season out with the Twins offense. The x-factor for the Twins is Zebby Matthews. I think we all know who ZM is so I will keep this short. Matthews has risen quickly through the Twins minor leagues because of his ability to command multiple pitches, limit walks, miss bats, and get outs. At 6'5 225 with a fastball that sits 95-96+ and multiple breaking pitches, he has a profile that may be even higher than Festa's. While it's most likely true that he is not ready this year, if the Twins are serious they should allow themselves to get a chance to see how he can perform. If the Twins can add another SP with plus stuff to their rotation who they can trust to go 2x through the order this puts them in a much stronger position. In order to have the depth to get through a 7 game series and keep their bullpen fresh having 3 pitchers (Festa, SWR, and Matthews) who can all eat 3-4-5 innings would put the Twins in a pretty strong position. Promoting Matthews would be aggressive based on his experience and his maturation in terms of how many innings he has pitched in his career and this late into the season, but if anyone has the frame to be durable and handle that it's Matthews. __________________________________________________________________________________ The Twins IMO have enough pitching talent and "stuff" to contend in the playoffs even without Ryan. The bigger challenge will actually be the volume of innings needed in the regular season. SWR, Festa, Varland, and Paddack all either will not go deep into games or will struggle to throw quality innings. The Twins are going to need to be really creative to rotate arms through and keep their bullpen fresh. __________________________________________________________________________________ As a Twins fan, if I longer horizon than this year, if the injury to Ryan and lack of moves creates a scenario in which Festa & Matthews are promoted earlier and more aggressively (out of necessity) the Twins front-office and ownership could come out of this looking smart. It is a credit to the Twins front-office and coaching staff that over the past few years they have been able to consistently take starting pitchers and develop them. I have not seen a Twins team that has been able to so consistently get internal development from pitchers, additional velocity and improving pitch mixes. Next season and over the next few years if the Twins have (1) Lopez (2) Ryan (3) Ober (4) SWR (5) Festa (6) Matthews this sets them up to have a cost-controlled and elite SP group. Now, we will see how much SWR, Festa, and Matthews can develop and how consistent they can be at the MLB level but really if either Festa or Matthews can develop to the Lopez/Ryan/Ober level the Twins are positioned well for the next 5 years.

I am going to leave this here because there is no point. Is there a chance that Julien has regressed from the player that he was in the MLB last season and from the player he was throughout his entire minor league career over 4-5 seasons? It is possible. There are also plenty of players who go through sophomore slumps, work through the process to adjust to the adjustments teams make against them, and are successful. Even this year, players like Buxton, Correa, and more had similar or worse OPS+ to Julien through the first 50 games of the season before catching fire. It is the wrong process to give up on a player who had a slow third of the season when they have the pedigree and talent that Julien has -- especially if they are 2 good games away from a .400 obp and .800 OPS. Baseball is a streaky sport. Julien is not Joey Gallo, he has much better plate discipline and uses the whole field as a hitter and makes a lot more contact. Julien will struggle with contact at times, he's not a perfect player. I think he does have above average or elite skills in multiple areas as a hitter. He has one of the best understanding of the strike zone and discipline at swinging only at good pitches in the league. He also has above average power, especially to left-center and the opposite field. This is the right process for an approach that should be successful at the major league level. But you don't want to see him succeed so that's fine. We will see what happens.

Agreed -- I have no idea why we are prioritizing Santana in anyway other than insurance if guys like Kirilloff and Julien don't develop. Every intention should be to try to maximize the value of the young players, even if that leads to a trade.

He has over a .400 OBP and an .807 OPS at AAA...

I think something that's important to do in sports, but baseball especially is to be able to zoom out. I think in sports discourse also in baseball we tend to project forward what has happened recently. In a sport where the difference between the best players in the MLB and non-MLB caliber players is 1 hit per 10 ABs or getting on base 1 more time per 10 ABs I think players go through good and bad stretches. I think Julien has been an extremely strong hitter for the majority of his entire career, at every level, including being arguably the Twins best hitter for an 110 game stretch as a rookie last year. If your bet is that Julien having a down year over this last half of the season is likely to be the player that he is for the rest of his career instead of the player he has been for 95% of his career than that is a fine position to take. I think that's where we disagree.

I don't really understand how Julien is the odd man out. There isn't another hitter on the MLB team or in the minors that has a similar skillset to him. I would trade, move, or reduce the role of Kepler, Santana, Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner, and potentially even Miranda over Julien. There are lots of 3 true outcome profiles and the Twins have a lot of mediocre OBP, decent power, and good hit tool prospects. I can't think of many profiles as a hitter that pair better with Lee, Lewis, and Correa at the top of the order. He will be less valuable as a 1B but I think this is where you step away from the spreadsheet and look at the team, the current skillsets, his hit tool, and from the standpoint of lets do anything we can do to get this guys bat and on base skills in the lineup

The only other thing to think about is that the Twins are one cold stretch away from getting passed in the wild card race, the race continues to remain tight and will be throughout the season. The Twins are one arm injury away to Lopez, Ryan, or Ober to being completely cooked--as in no point in even continuing the season cooked. I think there are reasons to bring in a quality starter even if they aren't high-end because of managing the downside risk that the Twins are sort of teetering right now. If they do this, I like going after expiring veterans for hopefully pretty cheap (Tyler Anderson) is another name.

I would take a flyer on Bauer. There isn't much downside to offering him the minimum. He has more than served punishment (blackballed from the MLB, lost out on 10s of millions of dollars ) for allegations that were proven false in a court of law. What's the worst thing that happens, he has a high ERA at AAA as he ramps to pitch in the majors and he never makes it? The Twins take flyers on uber drivers who play for the Saint Paul Saints and have an interesting spin rate. They won't though.

In the second half key things that I will be watching: Getting Julien on track: Julien was an 155 OPS+ player last year. I believe that his eye at the plate, ability to lay off balls, and opposite field power is a valuable skillset. I think this skillset fits perfectly at the top of the order in front of Lee, Lewis, and Correa. How can the Twins get Julien back to where he was last season? How does it all fit together: Wallner appears to be getting back to where he was last year, I am confident Julien will figure it out, and Royce will come back. Now, what if AK gets healthy and starts tearing up AAA? There is some slack on the roster with Farmer and maybe Margot. I think the Twins need to figure out who they want to invest into and create more defined and consistent roles for those players. The should aggressively pursue trades to upgrade pitching. There are more hitting prospects coming in Keaschall, E-Rod, Jenkins, and others sooner rather than later. Pablo Lopez: How can the Twins get him on track? His peripherals look really good but he's consistently getting shelled. Adding SP: How can the Twins upgrade their SPing? It doesn't appear that there is additional help in AAA and god forbid there is an injury to one of the top 4. This is a huge risk and in the playoffs I worry that especially with Pablo's struggles we don't have enough high-end stuff against elite bats. Can you go out and get a cost controlled top of the rotation caliber starter? If not, how can you at least shore this risk up.

To me the easy answer(s) here are Larnach, Santana, and potentially some Kepler. I think one of the things the Twins should be worried about is that they are approaching decision time on some of these younger prospects who are trying to break their way into the MLB and produce consistently without ever really being able to see how good they are because of the general log jam of players that we have seen in recent years. I think Wallner could potentially be a prime trade candidate. However, he also might be a .370+ OBP - .800+ OPS hitter who hits 70+ XBH's per year. I think the development of Lewis & Lee along with Correa mean that you don't have to ask Wallner to be a say true #4 hitter. If Wallner is a #6 or #7 hitter, the empty at bats between the hard contact may be much more palatable. In addition, that's much more palatable on a roster that is now one of the best contact hitting and lowest strikeout teams in the league. I do think that we know what Larnach is and we know that he's probably about a league average hitter at best. I think Santana has played surprisingly well and has been better than that for stretches but is also probably roughly there as well. I think you need to see how good Wallner is and you know that Santana and/or Larnch is available to you to (1) pinch hit (2) certain matchups (3) if Wallner slumps (4) if you want more consistency and experience in a playoff situation.