What's to Blame for the Twins Offense?

Excellent article. Truly ugly situation. Sadly, I suspect the decision-makers in the front office chose this destiny for the team this year. 
Their actions made it clear they valued a Gallo approach more than an Arraez approach. They must be coaching a whole lineup toward the theory that contact rate is unimportant and strikeouts are tolerable.
Just hit it very hard if and when you ever hit it. My eyes say that approach doesn’t win.

So much great research in this article- well done, Cody!

The fact that really surprised me, though-- the Twins have a hitting coach? 🤔

49 minutes ago, NotAboutWinning said:

Great article Cody! Spot on! An entire lineup (some returning players, some new) does not forget how to make contact all at once. They are being led down a bad path. In an interview during spring training Falvey alluded to a new, "super" analytic system that no other teams have. That would be my prime suspect!

You know I was going to comment about the lack of specific information in the article other than the strikeout % of hitters and the team and how it seemed rather vague. But then this comment really makes it look like a fangraphs article. 😂 Just wait until you learn how the best team in baseball, the one that just swept the twins 13-3, runs their operation.  

Whatever the organizational approach is, the pathetic OPS numbers from the lineup on a nightly basis say it isn't working.

The FO and Rocco should save that 'super analytic system' to best direct their job applications after they are eventually fired (waaaaay to late) by ownership... 

In the mean time, buckle up buttercup and enjoy the downward slide!

It's definitely an organizational philosophy.  It's really not working and everyone needs to be fired who are responsible for it, batting coaches, etc ....  Everyone who is responsible for it, this team is wasting a great pitching staff overall.

It's definitely an organizational philosophy.  It's really not working and everyone needs to be fired who are responsible for it, batting coaches, etc ....  Everyone who is responsible for it, this team is wasting a great pitching staff overall.

Either I missed it, or there was no mention of the new pitch clock rule being a factor. 

Either way, The Kings of K from the Land of 10,000 ra-K-es are killing my love for baseball. 

I use drive 300+ miles  to see the Twins play out of state, Now I won't even drive 30 miles to Target Field. 

This team is flat out boring.  

Baseball has changed so much over the years.  But one thing that hasn't changed is you have to make contact with the ball.  Anything can happen if you actually hit the ball somewhere in the field.  I hate the "swinging from your ass" philosophy these days.  But then again, I hate watching centers launch 3's in the NBA.  I'm just old school I guess.

I believe the article should be titled "Who to Blame." I would start with Baldelli and Popkins. The front office has given them the tools and the next call up from AAA should be Toby Gardenhire.

They (the nerds) are not going to change anything, because they don’t believe they’re doing anything wrong. Analytics are based on “ expected” outcomes. When reality doesn’t reflect that, it’s an anomaly.  I don’t know how pervasive the nerds are in controlling things on the field, but the other day during an interview, Rocco was discussing Ober’s last outing. He said that Ober was doing well, but then “he had to make a couple of pitches he didn’t want to make”.  It made me think: why would a pitcher make pitches he didn’t want to throw?  Who is calling the game?  This coupled with another article reporting that Joe Madden doesn’t set the lineups for the Mets begs the question: how much “managing” is Rocco actually doing versus it being directed by the Nerds???

Let's be clear here that this is not rocket science and it is NOT about the metrics. Too many of our coaches and Front office are focused on this and not the actual fundamentals of the game! 

And THERE lies the problem. The fundamentals of our hitters at this point IS the issue. 

The "pull" mentality has been the main issue here as players that are Good at using the whole field have been pulling off the ball to try to hit it Mach 10 and into the 3rd deck instead of putting a solid swing on the ball and hitting the ball where it is pitched. It is SO evident to those that have played and coached that most of this team "pulls off the ball" and their frontside is gone on a good majority of their swings. 

Result of this is that we hit poorly when in need of situation baseball as you can't just turn that on and off. Preaching and teaching this all the way down the system is and needs to be a priority. 

When that happens ... our hitting numbers will improve.. until then... expect more of the same. Unfortunately. 

I tip my hat to specialiststeve.  He hits the nail on the head.  Reptevia also made very good observations.  To me, it's always been most obvious is certain situational hitting AB's but it's like a big scab that the hitters just can't stop scratching.  They seem to have no concept of the strike zone (although, to be honest, certain umpires like CB Buckner don't either) and as specialiststeve pointed out, they are all tremendously pull happy with their front half flying open on every swing.  

The only two hitters that I see willing to take an outside pitch to the opposite field consistently are Kirilloff and Lewis.  This team HAS to have Correa and Buxton hitting for them to score runs and both have been atrocious this year.  Popkins can't be as good as Correa claims with the results we've had.  Kepler hasn't been able to figure anything out since 2019.  This is an organizational philosophy that analytics be damned is FLAWED.   They need a hitting coach with a Paul Molitor approach.  Every Twins hitter should study tape of Freddy Freeman.  He's as consistent day to day as anybody.  

Great article Cody. Many comments already above covering what is obvious to even casual fans; there’s an organizational philosophy to plate appearances that is severely degrading the product. 
 

So much coddling, rationalizing and excusing. If I were running things there would be a “Land of 10,000 K’s” vest a batter would be required to wear in the dugout after striking out. These guys would have worn it out already. 

Each pitcher the Twins face has one or two pitches in his arsenal designed to get you to chase the ball off the plate. Once the batter knows those pitchers he needs to not swing and force the pitcher into a high count and strike. You are playing the probabilities. But it takes players with discipline and the willingness like Arreaza to not be afraid to have two strikes.

Who remembers Castro's game ending bat against Cleveland. He face a pitcher that struck him out by throwing a ball knee high that dropped out of the strike zone. Un hittable. So he graces the same pitcher with the game on the line and what does he do. Swings at the same pitch over and over until he strikes out. Might be one of the more pathetic abates I have ever seen.

Let's look at pitches certain players should NEVER swing at:

Correa ,, inside on the hands

Buxton .. Slider on the outside of the plate that ends up foot outside. Not being able to stop swinging at that pitch is the reason Sano isn't in the bigs right now. Even if he recognized it after the start of his swing he could never stop in time to keep from breaking his wrist.

Kepler .. high and tight resulting in week ground balls to the right side. 

MIranda .. can't lay off the high hard one

Gallo, any ball out side the place whether in, out, up or down. They should send that guy up there and tell him not to swing until he has two strikes.

They need to stop being so swing happy ..

40 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

So on the list of “who to blame”, I’d probably put The PLAYERS as the number 1 problem.

Gallo - Larnach - Julien & others have been high volume strikeout guys through the varying lengths of their careers.

Correa was a .279 career BA guy coming into ‘23 & in his 8th or 9th season. I get coaches are there to help - advise - guide, but if Correa can’t solve something on his own after 65 games that’s pathetic!!

Vazquez got $15M/year for 3 years and turned  into Phil Roof……he’s been around the Show for many years and a .270 plus career BA guy. 65 games into season………Zero home runs. Figure it out.

Buxton has been a just above average offensive performer forever & into his 9th season, nothing new here - extremely hot & cold over the past couple years. He’s a great athlete with some unique talents but not a great hitter. He’s made great defensive plays in previous years to help balance his hitting woes. ALSO, in 7 of 8 previous seasons he only played 46% of the games. Basically, he’s been hiding his offensive deficiencies on the IL!

Gallo - same as Buxton. Power KKKKK power hurt KKKKK hurt.

Kepler is washed - Popkins nor either of previous 2 batting coaches have been able to reverse this decline over the past 3.5 seasons!! Needs to be DFA’d for the guy that’s obviously deserving of a shot - Wallner - watch out, he K’s a bunch too.

Lewis’ approach to contact, (evidenced Friday night) that’s not always pretty, needs to be adopted up & down the line-up…….at least with Farmer - Castro - Taylor - etc……,.I doubt Popkins is coaching Lewis differently than the other 15 guys that have been up this year…….probably not coaching Kirilloff differently either. Those 2 guys have taken responsibility for their performance and they make adjustments. They both happen to be talented & with high expectations. Popkins hasn’t ruined them is my point…..maybe the critics/fans need more players taking a look in the mirror?

Although Lewis and Kirillof both started the year in the minors.  So maybe those guys left them alone a little bit down there.  I guess there is no way to prove that this is caused by a team hitting philosophy, but just like you said, some of these guys have hit differently for different teams, why does it seem like everyone has the same or similar approach at the plate?  Now I'm not even going to say that the approach is always bad, for certain hitters.  I think these analytic nerds only get it wrong when they try to make everyone do the same thing.  I have always felt that when you do things or coach that way you make your team really predictable.  When you are predictable, then other teams can employ strategy that counters that predicability.  My feeling is always that you need different approaches within the same lineup.  Having a Gallo or two in a lineup surrounded by a couple of Arraez types I think takes advantage of both the pure power guys and the on base guys.  I mean how much more of a problem is Gallo when he comes up with guys on first and second all of the time?  But when the two guys before Gallo punch out or hit a solo bomb and Gallo comes up with no one on base so frequently then pitchers don't have to be afraid of him when they pitch.  I think the problem with the analytic nerds is that they think everyone needs to do the same thing all of the time in order to be good.  I think when everyone does the same thing over and over again all of the time they become predictable and that's when teams can better plan on how to beat them. 

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

So on the list of “who to blame”, I’d probably put The PLAYERS as the number 1 problem.

Gallo - Larnach - Julien & others have been high volume strikeout guys through the varying lengths of their careers.

Correa was a .279 career BA guy coming into ‘23 & in his 8th or 9th season. I get coaches are there to help - advise - guide, but if Correa can’t solve something on his own after 65 games that’s pathetic!!

Vazquez got $15M/year for 3 years and turned  into Phil Roof……he’s been around the Show for many years and a .270 plus career BA guy. 65 games into season………Zero home runs. Figure it out.

Buxton has been a just above average offensive performer forever & into his 9th season, nothing new here - extremely hot & cold over the past couple years. He’s a great athlete with some unique talents but not a great hitter. He’s made great defensive plays in previous years to help balance his hitting woes. ALSO, in 7 of 8 previous seasons he only played 46% of the games. Basically, he’s been hiding his offensive deficiencies on the IL!

Gallo - same as Buxton. Power KKKKK power hurt KKKKK hurt.

Kepler is washed - Popkins nor either of previous 2 batting coaches have been able to reverse this decline over the past 3.5 seasons!! Needs to be DFA’d for the guy that’s obviously deserving of a shot - Wallner - watch out, he K’s a bunch too.

Lewis’ approach to contact, (evidenced Friday night) that’s not always pretty, needs to be adopted up & down the line-up…….at least with Farmer - Castro - Taylor - etc……,.I doubt Popkins is coaching Lewis differently than the other 15 guys that have been up this year…….probably not coaching Kirilloff differently either. Those 2 guys have taken responsibility for their performance and they make adjustments. They both happen to be talented & with high expectations. Popkins hasn’t ruined them is my point…..maybe the critics/fans need more players taking a look in the mirror?

I agree to some extent, but then I notice that almost every player jettisoned to another team seems to suddenly start hitting...

So Carlos Correa is making the decisions, now?

We had 17 strike outs today. 

We won 9-4.

Do strike outs matter?

1 minute ago, joefish said:

We had 17 strike outs today. 

We won 9-4.

Do strike outs matter?

 

It matters when you have a runner on second with no outs and three consecutive batters whiff...and you lose 2-1.

2 hours ago, Aerodeliria said:

It matters when you have a runner on second with no outs and three consecutive batters whiff...and you lose 2-1.

I'm seeing more close low-scoring games with varying results and strike-out discrepancies. 

I will be dead before I believe that striking out is ok. That they are no worse than weak contact. 

Today's game was not an anomaly.  

On 6/10/2023 at 8:41 AM, Reptevia said:

They (the nerds) are not going to change anything, because they don’t believe they’re doing anything wrong. Analytics are based on “ expected” outcomes. When reality doesn’t reflect that, it’s an anomaly.  I don’t know how pervasive the nerds are in controlling things on the field, but the other day during an interview, Rocco was discussing Ober’s last outing. He said that Ober was doing well, but then “he had to make a couple of pitches he didn’t want to make”.  It made me think: why would a pitcher make pitches he didn’t want to throw?  Who is calling the game?  This coupled with another article reporting that Joe Madden doesn’t set the lineups for the Mets begs the question: how much “managing” is Rocco actually doing versus it being directed by the Nerds???

I have read that Calvin Griffith said he would fire anyone who tried to change Tony Oliva's batting style. 

Not a bad approach. The Twins had, if memory serves, the 2nd best win record in the majors for about 8 to 10 years, mostly riding on a team that not only could hit, but knew how to score runs. They had a few top pitchers, but pitching was never dominant. It was scoring runs. ( I still believe RBI and Runs Scored to be the two most important hitting stats...runs scored because it accounts to some degree for base running savvy, plus speed)

   If you have hitters like Kirillof, Lewis, Solano(spell), Gallo,leave em alone. Fill them in on the pitchers, and let em do what they do.

  Also...if a guy is in pain due to injury, don't ruin his swing by continuing to have him play while hurt.