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I'm not saying they can't (or shouldn't) break their trend this year, but the current Twins leadership has developed a pretty consistent pattern when it comes to approaching the offseason. With rare exception, they have stood pat and preserved available resources, opting to spend their dollars on the values that remain after the early aggressive splurging subsides.
This path led the Twins to sign Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison in 2018. It led them to Marwin Gonzalez in 2019, Josh Donaldson in 2020, and Carlos Correa in 2022.
Where might it lead them in 2023?
To answer this question, I reviewed our latest chapter of the Offseason Handbook, "Hunting for a Big Bat," seeking players who not only would be good fits for the Twins, but who – for various reasons – might see their markets drift and dwindle into the later stages of the offseason.
These three names stood out.
Mitch Haniger, OF
Age: 31 (12/23/90)
Former Team: Mariners
Career fWAR: 11.8
Why He's a Fit for the Twins:
Minnesota could obviously use a right-handed corner outfield bat – ideally one capable of stepping in as an everyday regular, if not opening the season as one. Haniger fits that bill perfectly.
As a .261/.335/.476 career hitter, he's overqualified for the Kyle Garlick role, but if Max Kepler were traded, Haniger could step in as the new right fielder, thus allowing Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner and Nick Gordon to vie for at-bats in left (while reducing the dependence on any of them individually).
Why He Still Might Be Available in January:
Haniger enters free agency at a tough time, coming off an injury-ravaged season that saw him produce just 0.9 fWAR in 57 games. He'll likely want to get paid based on his bona fides: a 39-HR, 100-RBI season in 2021, and an All-Star campaign in 2018 where he was worth 4.8 fWAR.
The problem is he hasn't played 100 games in a season outside of those two, and he turns 32 in December. On top of that, the market in general for low-OBP, high-power corner outfield types is usually very tepid. Haniger figures to be disappointed with the caliber of his early offers, which could lead him into the Twins' wheelhouse as they measure up the post-holiday pool.
J.D. Martinez, DH
Age: 35 (DOB: 8/21/87)
Former Team: Red Sox
Career fWAR: 26.5
Why He's a Fit for the Twins:
When you set aside all of the positional considerations, what the Twins really need this offseason is a premium bat to replace Correa in the heart of their lineup. Martinez can be that. He's been one of the league's premier sluggers for a decade, named to the past four consecutive All-Star teams.
With two 40-homer seasons and four 100-RBI campaigns under his belt, Martinez would bring a prestigious pedigree and some serious veteran firepower to a lineup that is lacking for it.
Why He Still Might Be Available in January:
With universal DH in place, dynamics have changed since the Twins were able to leverage Nelson Cruz's limited market into a team-friendly deal (twice). But regardless, it remains tough to sell the services of an aging, plodding power hitter who is not even an occasional option to play in the field. Martinez also has a couple of specific things working against him: his home-run power has dropped off over the past few years (though it's translated to a big jump in doubles), and he's coming off his worst overall season since 2013.
Martinez is represented by Scott Boras, which is – odd as it feels to say – a big point in the Twins' favor. There's lots of history here. Correa and Gonzalez are both examples of Boras clients who signed with Minnesota late in the offseason previously.
Brandon Drury, UTIL
Age: 30 (DOB: 8/21/92)
Former Team: Padres
Career fWAR: 3.6
Why He's a Fit for the Twins:
Speaking of Marwin, Drury's appeal to the Twins is very similar. He's a versatile defender who can plug in all around the field and actually make some noise at the plate. His 131 starts for the Reds and Padres last year came at six different positions, including 67 at third base.
The righty-swinging Drury posted an .813 OPS with 28 home runs in 2022, and he mauled lefties to the tune of a .950 OPS. The 30-year-old would bring flexibility the Twins tend to prize: he could replace Gio Urshela as regular third baseman, platoon with Luis Arraez or Alex Kirilloff at first, and maybe even spell the lefty outfielders occasionally.
Why He Still Might Be Available in January:
Drury was worth 3.0 fWAR this past year. In a career spanning eight MLB seasons, he has been worth 3.6 fWAR total. That tells you a whole lot about his pre-2022 track record. There's a reason he had to settle for a minor-league deal with the non-contending Reds, and made only a $700K salary during his breakout season.
Understandably, he'll be looking to maximize his earnings, having made only around $5 million in his entire career. But teams might be leary of making a big commitment to a possible flash-in-the-pan. If Drury is seeking the security of a multi-year deal with a lower AAV, he'd fit nicely into the Twins' planning.
Want to read about more lineup-boosting targets in free agency, including Aaron Judge, Jose Abreu, and Brandon Nimmo? Check out the full Offseason Handbook chapter, Hunting for a Big Bat, now available to all Twins Daily Caretakers. You can also check out this hub page to find all previously released chapters and editions.
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