Should the Twins Re-Sign Starting Pitcher Anthony DeSclafani This Offseason?

On Jan. 29, the Minnesota Twins traded fan-favorite second baseman Jorge Polanco to the Seattle Mariners in exchange for starting pitcher Anthony DeSclafani, reliever Justin Topa, outfield prospect Gabriel Gonzalez, and pitching prospect Darren Bowen. Upon hearing news of the transactions, those who followed the Twins quickly released trade grades and put each of the four players acquired in a box, assessing which netted the most value for Minnesota.

Consensus agreed that González (Keith Law of The Athletic's 96th-ranked prospect at the time) was the gem of the trade. Topa was most commonly deemed the second-most valuable player in the trade, considering he was expected to become a high-leverage arm out of the team's bullpen. Bowen took the third spot, as a high-variance, low-minors arm who could potentially blossom into an MLB-caliber pitcher under the Twins' pitching development tutelage.

Then, there was DeSclafani. Many who analyzed the trade labeled the then-33-year-old starting pitcher as a mere throw-in acquisition, whose primary purpose was to cancel out some of Polanco's salary in the swap. To me, these assessments were narrow and sluggish.

If DeSclafani could have avoided season-ending surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his right arm before his 2024 campaign began, he would have been the team's fifth starting pitcher behind incumbents Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Chris Paddack. Had he maintained adequate health to this point of the season, there is a significant chance he would be the team's third-most trusted starting pitcher, behind López and Ober. Now, we are probably dabbling too far into hypotheticals. However, a starting pitcher slotted to begin the season as a team's fifth starter should be considered more than a "throw-in," particularly considering how injuries have quickly derailed the Twins' rotation. No player slated to take on a full-time role should be dismissed and passively deemed a meaningless acquisition.

Despite Topa not yet appearing for the team this season, DeSclafani's absence has negatively affected the team more, and he should have at least been considered the second-most important acquisition in the trade. Nevertheless, the now-34-year-old hurler never threw a pitch in a Twins uniform, and he likely never will. He's in the final year of his current contract and is slated to hit free agency at season's end.

That said, the organization could be incentivized to bring him back next season as a post-injury flier. In a piece written by Twins Daily's Eric Blonigen, he noted that roughly $30 million will come off the cash-strapped Twins payroll this fall. In turn, the team's projected 2025 payroll will be around $127.8 million to begin the offseason, with $34 million going toward the starting rotation and $3 million toward Randy Dobnak's contract. The team needs to make some other additions, and will have precious little to spend, since that projected payroll figure will already be virtually identical to their payroll for this season.

However, the team could find creative ways to expel Christian Vázquez ($10 million), Paddack ($7.5 million), or other contract obligations, and relieve themselves of somewhere between $12-15 million. Doing so would leave the front office with some money to play with this offseason, meaning they could add a veteran or two on cheaper contracts, similar to what they did this past offseason. López, Ryan, and Ober are surefire bets to make the club's Opening Day starting rotation next season. However, moving Paddack would mean creating a space in the rotation, in addition to some in the budget. Young, promising arms like Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, Zebby Matthews, Andrew Morris, and post-hype Louie Varland are all viable candidates. However, the front office emphasizes veteran depth, especially early in the season, meaning they could pursue a cheap, veteran, back-of-the-rotation arm.

If team decision-makers elect to venture down this path, DeSclafani could reenter the rotation mix. The sinker-tossing right-hander is making $12 million this season. However, the Twins are paying only $4 million, as the San Francisco Giants and Seattle Mariners are collectively covering the remaining $8 million. He'll only cost roughly that $4 million figure this winter, and maybe even less, after undergoing surgery just after Opening Day that carries a recovery timeline of roughly 13 months. The front office values what DeSclafani has to offer. Mixing this with their tendency to prioritize veteran depth and the limitations of their spending power, a reunion between the two parties would make sense.

Retaining DeSclafani's services would allow the team to have Festa, Matthews, Varland, and Morris compete for the final rotation spot. Whoever falls short in the competition would function as young, cost-controlled rotation depth at Triple-A. The team has leaned on their surplus of depth in the high minors this season, and they would be wise to put themselves in a situation where they could do the same in 2025.