Twins Video
Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 6 1/3 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 ER 4 BB, 10 K (102 Pitches, 61 Strikes, 59.8%)
Home Runs: None
Bottom 3 WPA: Andrew Morris (-0.70), Garret Acton (-0.40), Byron Buxton (-0.14)
Win Probability Chart (Via BaseballSavant):
Things have leveled off for the Twins following their brief stay at the top of the league table, and they entered Sunday's series finale with the Reds in danger of losing their fourth straight game. Their defense and bullpen, thought to be major weaknesses entering the year, were just that on getaway day.
On the positive side, the Twins were facing Brady Singer, who has endured a 9.00-plus ERA in his Target Field career. On the downside, Bailey Ober took the mound for the Twins, and he had paired an 88-MPH fastball with a 5.49 ERA over his four starts in 2026.
Things started nicely, as Ober induced extremely weak contact while featuring mainly his changeup and sweeper. He allowed a bloop single in the first and a walk in the second. He finished the second inning with a Javier Báez-esque sword of Rece Hinds, courtesy of a sweeper a foot off the plate.
Meanwhile, the Twins squeezed across a Byron Buxton run against Singer in the first. We've seen it many times before: Buxton beats out a squibber, the fielder rushes the throw, allowing Buxton to advance to second, and then two productive outs bring Byron home. The Twins were unable to make anything else happen against Singer and his 91-MPH sinker, though, which he was locating in the middle of the zone.
The Twins took advantage in the third. After James Outman's customary easy out, Buxton drew a walk, Trevor Larnach ripped a single to right and Josh Bell followed suit, as did Victor Caratini, making the score 3-0.
The Reds would answer in the fourth. The electric Elly De La Cruz led off with a broken-bat double down the right-field line. Outman bobbled the ball, which allowed De La Cruz to reach third. He would score on a grounder up the middle from Sal Stewart. Following a walk to Eugenio Suárez, Ober was then bailed out by former Twins farmhand Spencer Steer, who took strike three on a 3-2 count. The ball was six inches outside, but Steer inexplicably decided not to challenge. Ober retired Tyler Stephenson to minimize the damage.
Ober was pretty good, shielding his fastball as much as possible and throwing his typical array of changeups that dart away from lefties and come back into the zone against righties. The sweeper was particularly good, and Ober mixed in some fastballs late in his outing that got key strikeouts against Stewart and Suárez. The velocity was up to 90 MPH at points, but I think Ober is making adjustments to try to be that Mark Buehrle/Jered Weaver type of pitcher who can have success throwing in the 80s. It worked today, as Ober struck out 10, the last of which came on an 87-MPH four-seamer that somehow got past the bat of Stephenson. He also induced 14 whiffs.
Andrew Morris pitched the eighth with a 3-1 lead, and his velocity was a little down, sitting 93-96 MPH. It was a little rocky, requiring 28 pitches, but he got a key strikeout against Suárez on a sweeper to end the frame.
He came back out for the ninth, and quickly gave up two opposite-field singles to the bottom of the Reds' order. He recorded an out, then walked nine-hole hitter Hinds. The struggling TJ Friedl then roped a middle-middle fastball to the gap in right-center, to clear the bases and turn the game on its head.
The Twins were not done, as the alleged corpse of Outman followed up his first hit of the year with a ringing leadoff double in the ninth. Buxton was unable to advance Outman, but Austin Martin smashed a double down the left-field line to tie the game against old friend Emilio Pagán. Bell lined a ball at 102 MPH to deep center, but it held up for Myers. Caratini would fly out to end the threat and send the game to extras.
After finishing the ninth, Garret Acton was brought back out for the 10th. He allowed a missile off the bat of Stewart (109 MPH) that Martin made a leaping catch on. Suárez then grounded to third, Tristan Gray booted it, and then Martin bobbled it in left, allowing the speedy "Manfred Man" De La Cruz to score. Hinds would then double in two to put a bow on the game.
Things I'm Tracking:
- The baserunning was pretty good to start, with Buxton and Larnach taking extra bases and then Brooks Lee taking third on a hit (gasp) from James Outman in the fourth. Lee was perhaps feeling himself a bit after that, as he tried to steal home on a throw down to second with Outman running. Lee was out by, uh, a lot. Red Sox fans sometimes describe OF/DH Masataka Yoshida's running style as running as if he were made of LEGOs and I think Lee has the same affliction.
- I wondered if the Reds had some sort of mandate not to challenge pitches as hitters, as they let two important strike threes go by in the fourth and fifth innings, when both were clear balls. I get the philosophy, as catchers have the better view of pitches, and their challenge percentage is higher than hitters, but it really impacted the Reds from a WPA perspective today.
- De La Cruz then unsuccessfully challenged a strike call in the sixth, and Dane Myers followed suit in the seventh. It is surprising a Tito Francona-led team would do so much self-inflicted damage.
- Kody Clemens' walkup song is "Confidence," and for a guy hitting under .150 that seems a little on the nose.
- The "redundant trade candidate" Trevor Larnach reached base four times today, raising his OBP to .468. He's definitely not useful at all.
- "Really cool underrated slugger" Matt Wallner sat due to the after-effects of getting hit in the ribs last Monday. His 71 OPS+ and emotion-based ABS challenges were surely missed.
- The defense is a struggle, man. Outman's bobble allowed the first run to score, and then the play in the tenth involved two separate errors.
What’s Next: The Twins travel to Queens to face the Mets, featuring a neat matchup between promising young starters Mick Abel (1-2, 3.98 ERA) and Nolan McClean (1-1, 2.28 ERA). The Mets are currently in the midst of an 11-game losing streak, which is pretty funny considering how big their payroll is. (probably not to them, but.)
Postgame Interviews:
Bullpen Usage Chart:
| WED | THUR | FRI | SAT | SUN | TOT | |
| Morris | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 47 | 47 |
| Topa | 13 | 0 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 34 |
| Sands | 0 | 0 | 20 | 12 | 0 | 32 |
| Funderburk | 14 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 32 |
| Acton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 29 |
| Orze | 12 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 27 |
| Banda | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| Rogers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 |
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