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  • It's Okay to be Impressed by the Twins


    Matt Braun

    The author would like to note that he conceived this piece prior to Minnesota’s comeback victory over the Astros on Monday.

    Image courtesy of Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

    I was on Twins Daily the other day when the front page struck me with its topics.

    Around two video links titled "What's Wrong With the Twins" and "The Twins Are Unwatchable Right Now" were three articles: What's Wrong With Griffin Jax, It's Okay to be Disappointed by the Twins, and These 3 Minnesota Twins Prospects Are Off to Disappointing Starts in 2023

    That's a lot of consternation! 

    To be clear, these are all legitimate perspectives and relevant topics pertaining to real issues plaguing the franchise. Their timing is extreme, but their subject matter is not; a little healthy skepticism is needed in life, anyways.

    But—I don't know—does it all seem a little much? The Twins haven't overwhelmed us with legendary and inspiring baseball, but they're 28-26 after play on Monday and currently own one the best pitching staffs in MLB. Trust me; I've sat at Fangraphs longingly staring at the player pages for LaMonte Wade Jr. and Yennier Cano, wondering what cruel creator would allow such searing pain—not seeing excellent players play for my favorite team—to exist in the world, hoping that through sheer sadness, Brent Rooker would somehow apparate into the 4-hole and fix the lineup.

    And yet, the team is treading water and playing competitive baseball; only eight of their 54 games have resulted in a loss greater than three runs. They've been able to keep it close. 

    Which only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades—I know. And yet the team has outscored their opponents by 44 runs, leading to a record of 32-22 if the Greek philosopher Pythagoras is to be trusted. 

    Most of that success has stemmed from an excellent, genuinely elite starting rotation. Only the Rays—a team that cares not for titles like "starter" and "reliever"—have allowed a lower team batting average; only the Mariners have accrued more fWAR; no one has struck out batters at a higher rate. Minnesota lost Tyler Mahle to Tommy John surgery; Kenta Maeda has stalled on multiple speed bumps while trying to return from his operation, and the team may have actually improved. Their depth is that special. 

    Both Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan have pitched like aces, while Pablo López has teased a potential for ace-ness; I can't remember the last time Minnesota had three legitimate top-tier starters on their team.

    These things should be celebrated; we should be shouting from the roof that their fifth starter is Louie Varland—a 25-year-old who throws 95, has 60 major-league innings under his belt, and still owns a better xFIP than Gerrit Cole. Bailey Ober ho-hums his way to a 2.68 ERA and one of the highest rWAR totals on the team, and it feels like no one even cares.

    Now, yes, the bats have been dreadfully inconsistent. I watch the same games as everyone else; I know what it feels like to watch inning after inning go by, all of them melting into an amorphous blob seemingly without life or movement as the team loses 2-4 to the Angels. It's tedium at its worst, considering watching baseball is supposed to be an activity of leisure. 

    Yet it should perhaps be a sign of good things that the bats could be this awful, and the team can still win ball games. And it should improve. Carlos Correa will get better; Jose Miranda will get better; Christian Vázquez… well, he has his own problems, but no one can carry an ISO of .027 forever. 

    This is all to say that it's getting better all the time. No one in the AL Central is even close to having a positive run differential, and that seems unlikely to change soon; those teams stink. It hasn't been aesthetically pleasant baseball at times, but it's still winning baseball, and they've often found themselves playing truly competitive ball against MLB bullies for the first time in a while. Maybe they'll break through and turn elite, and maybe they won't and stay an 85-win team for the rest of the season. All I know is that it'll probably be fine.

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    I wish I could enjoy the rare treat of watching an excellent Twins pitching staff, but this offense isn’t just ineffective. The homerun-or-bust strategy takes away all my aesthetic enjoyment of baseball offense.

    I was disappointed in how this lineup was built, because it’s not my preferred style- but even so, I would never have imagined how unproductive it would be.

    The best things this team has going are a wonderful rotation, a few great relievers, and an unimaginably dreadful division.

    Amazing that the stink of this offense is “outshining” all that.

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     The Twins haven't overwhelmed us with legendary and inspiring baseball, but they're 28-26

    We should be impressed with mediocracy?  We are 10 - 6 in our division which features a KC team that is kept off the MLB bottom by the A's  We are 6 - 1 versus the Royals.  Remove that and we are 22 - 25 in the weakest division in the AL.  We lead the league in Ks - that is our offense - we strikeout more than any other team.  Our BA leader is Buxton at 221. We are 24th in team BA - 234 and 19th in team OPS.  Nice try Matt, but this is not the time to be impressed.  I am impressed by the SP, but it ends there. 

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    Can we please stop with the ridiculous comparisons like this .

    These things should be celebrated; we should be shouting from the roof that their fifth starter is Louie Varland—a 25-year-old who throws 95, has 60 major-league innings under his belt, and still owns a better xFIP than Gerrit Cole

    Varland (Who I like and has been great) has pitched all of 34 innings, Cole has pitched 73.2.

    That is like saying Gray who is second in the majors in ERA but only has 4 quality starts and is 46th in the majors in innings is in the top tier of pitchers in the league, he has been good but every inning he doesn't pitch before the 8th leaves a way less pitcher trying to win the game.

     

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    Can we talk about the giant hole in the middle of the lineup, someone whose initials are BB? He hasn't driven in a run in three weeks. Neither has Joey Gallo. Whff, whiff, whiff. Neither is on a pace to drive in 70! Right now you'd rather have Willi Castro at the plate than either of them. Everthing comes to a thudding standstill when they come to bat. You can't win much that way. Give me Wallner.

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    constant double digit K's is nauseating..especially called strike 3's..and Correa and Buxton..our supposed All star caliber players are mediocre at best. Such a shame because our starting pitching has been better than i can remember in a long time.. But we cannot rely on the bullpen .. Pagan, Jax, Theilber are scary when they enter a game..please never bring back Richardson..and what happened to Lopez..lights out at Baltimore..comes to Minny and is a dud??

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    What if I'm not particularly impressed? Somehow, they're over .500...the smoke and mirrors seem to be working, along with our starting pitchers. The hitting has been putrid, and the bullpen is all over the place. Who knows what the manager is going to do on any given day. It looks to me, like an 81-81 team, and I hope that we're even that good. Amazingly, that could be enough to win the division. Hard to believe, but very true. 

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    1 hour ago, PopRiveter said:

    I wish I could enjoy the rare treat of watching an excellent Twins pitching staff, but this offense isn’t just ineffective. The homerun-or-bust strategy takes away all my aesthetic enjoyment of baseball offense.

    I was disappointed in how this lineup was built, because it’s not my preferred style- but even so, I would never have imagined how unproductive it would be.

    The best things this team has going are a wonderful rotation, a few great relievers, and an unimaginably dreadful division.

    Amazing that the stink of this offense is “outshining” all that.

    I have enjoyed watching really good defensive play by the Twins this year. 

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    Matt, Thanks for an average article. I had hoped that by June your articles would improve, but as we all know, it takes time. As Gardy used to say; "It's a long season." I must say that I enjoyed some of it, but some of it was just ok and some of it was ranked with the weakest articles appearing in TD. Over-all your writing skills in this article were probably ok currently. Please keep writing your daily articles. They will probably be fine. 

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    Dreadful offense has neutered the team’s chances, despite excellent starting pitching. Hopefully Buxton and Correa will get going. Gallo has replaced Sano as a two to theee strikeout guy per game, albeit with much better defense. Too much swing and miss up an down the lineup, but I don’t know how you fix that. 

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    It's odd that folks keep assuming that the hitting will "naturally" improve, but the pitching somehow won't decline. It will. We see that already.

    They had a clear opportunity to be ten or more games up in the Central, with a large enough buffer to let the summer play out without too much stress on the recently-recovering players and prospects. Instead, they'll be lucky to not be surpassed by Detroit in a week. There is almost zero fight in this team.

    No, I can't share your optimism. They've been gifted a hefty payroll (by AL Central standards), "superstar" signings, enviable rotation depth, and yet they can't make anything happen. Most of the players and prospects they gave up are shining, and most of the ones they kept are sinking ... or already sunk. 

    Fans are down because we can clearly see what's on the horizon - another winnable division and another lost season. This team will continue to reward skeptics and punish believers. Good for you for believing, though. Honestly. Personally, I can't.

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    I agree that we tend to be a little too negative here about the team. I think that's because we had higher expectations than were justified. The 'experts" predicted 80-85 wins. I think we're going to be on the higher end of that - after 1/3 of the season we projected to 84 wins (28-26 x 3 = 84-78) - and that's with injury issues. I think we may have overhyped ourselves into thinking this was a 90+ win team and anything less than that seems like a disappointment.

    I'm an optimist because I think the hardest thing to find is good starting pitching and we have a very good rotation that looks like it will be good in the future. We have some young talent that looks like it may be coming of age in Kirilloff and Jeffers, and we have Lewis, Julien, Castro, Wallner, and Larnach who may join them. All positive and all fun. 

    Here's the 2 things that drag me down.  First, Correa and Buxton are simply not performing and it's starting to look like it's more than just a slump. I don't think Buxton will perform as a DH. It's hard to do that and I think he would benefit from playing in the field, injury risk and all. Frankly, having him on the IL is not a whole lot less production than we've gotten from him the last 15-20 games. Correa looks hurt and should sit for 10 days if we think that will help. If not, move him to the 5 or 6 hole and leave him there until he hits. 

    Second, I just don't understand why we won't embrace the youth movement. We need to accept that we probably aren't a WS contender and this could be a great year to play the younger guys, develop them, and probably still win the division. The old core simply isn't good enough. We need to play Kirilloff, Lewis, Castro, Julien, and Wallner every day to see what they got. Catch Jeffers 50% or more of the time. Instead, we trot out guys who don't really contribute much and won't be here next year - Kepler, Solano, Taylor, Pagan and soon Maeda (watch, he will go into the rotation and Varland will go to AAA).  Gallo is ok but not really what we need. DFA Solano, bench or trade Kepler and Taylor, call up Wallner, see if there's a market for Gallo, and put Buxton in the field so the younger guys can play every day by opening up the DH spot and LF.  

    This could be a fun team to watch and it just isn't very fun or very successful. I'm willing to take a chance on our short term success to make them more fun and improve our long term chances. Turn over the roster and go. 

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    I think the truth about Pablo Lopez is that he’s just a good pitcher, nothing more, definitely not flirting with Ace status. He has actually had trouble staying healthy for a full season, so first things first. I get this is a fan site, but I think Twins Daily writers fail when they fail to set realistic expectations.

    I do expect Sonny Gray to continue pitching well, and I am going to enjoy the Joe Ryan ride for as long as it lasts. He looks pretty sound. I do feel like Rocco is removing Gray from starts too soon and I wonder if there are some mind games happening. That kind of thing does happen. 

    I also think it’s a little odd that Lopez was the main guy behind the fishing vest thing. He should be doing pitcher stuff, not hitter stuff!. 🙂

    Good pitching will continue to keep them in games. 

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    We should be impressed that they’ve gotten elite starting pitching from multiple guys and still can’t find a way to separate themselves from the worst division in baseball?

    We’re talking about the likes of Sonny Gray, here.  Good pitcher,  but that guy isn’t going to throw up a 1.50 ERA indefinitely going forward.  He’s going to come back to earth.  So is Joe Ryan (as we saw last night).

    I’m not impressed at all that they’ve found a way to squander the best run of starting pitching I’ve seen here in my lifetime.  I’m more worried about what it looks like when that normalizes and regression catches up to those starters.  Things could get very ugly.

    We’re sure as heck not going to be carried by this offense or bullpen.  We’re starting to see it catch up with them now, losing 4 series in a row and a likely 5th in Houston.

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    26 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

    I agree that we tend to be a little too negative here about the team. I think that's because we had higher expectations than were justified. The 'experts" predicted 80-85 wins. I think we're going to be on the higher end of that - after 1/3 of the season we projected to 84 wins (28-26 x 3 = 84-78) - and that's with injury issues. I think we may have overhyped ourselves into thinking this was a 90+ win team and anything less than that seems like a disappointment.

    I'm an optimist because I think the hardest thing to find is good starting pitching and we have a very good rotation that looks like it will be good in the future. We have some young talent that looks like it may be coming of age in Kirilloff and Jeffers, and we have Lewis, Julien, Castro, Wallner, and Larnach who may join them. All positive and all fun. 

    Second, I just don't understand why we won't embrace the youth movement. We need to accept that we probably aren't a WS contender and this could be a great year to play the younger guys, develop them, and probably still win the division. The old core simply isn't good enough. We need to play Kirilloff, Lewis, Castro, Julien, and Wallner every day to see what they got. Catch Jeffers 50% or more of the time. Instead, we trot out guys who don't really contribute much and won't be here next year - Kepler, Solano, Taylor, Pagan and soon Maeda (watch, he will go into the rotation and Varland will go to AAA).  Gallo is ok but not really what we need. DFA Solano, bench or trade Kepler and Taylor, call up Wallner, see if there's a market for Gallo, and put Buxton in the field so the younger guys can play every day by opening up the DH spot and LF.  

    This could be a fun team to watch and it just isn't very fun or very successful. I'm willing to take a chance on our short term success to make them more fun and improve our long term chances. Turn over the roster and go. 

    My prediction was 90+ wins, with this starting pitching and my thought was the offense would be a bit better than average, not this Sh!t show they are running out everyday.

    As for the youth movement, this is the 7th year of this FO and after the last two anything less than a playoff win is unacceptable to me and it seems they are thinking the same. I thought Ober or Varland should have been in the rotation to start (youth), and that Julien started the season in the majors again slowly implementing the youth, with the hope of AK and Lewis would be coming up.

     

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    Every season is unique and yet still the same. 

    Last season we had concerns and this season we have concerns. They may not be the same concerns but they are still concerns. 

    Perfection is really hard to achieve. 

    The team is in first place... there are plenty of ups and downs to come. 

    Overall... the veteran hitters on this team are a collective concern to me. When it comes to those veteran hitters... I don't assume status quo through the rest of the season nor do I assume guaranteed improvement as the season progresses.  

    The one thing that is obvious to me. The front office appears to have placed all of our offensive hopes and dreams in these veteran hitters.

    It's up to them.    

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    Too many bad decisions are being made by the FO and Rocco to take this team seriously. I don't know about you but I'm sure glad Kepler has replaced Wallner in the lineup. 2 games back and he's 0 fer 9 with 4 K's. Impressive! But he'll play no matter how good Wallner was or is. Buxton has proven he's not good in the DH role but they won't move him back to CF because a healthy non-productive Buxton is better than one that is injured. How does that make sense? Is next to nothing really all that much better than nothing? They are taking a probable superstar and making him a one dimensional average to below average player. Good move there wiseguys. As for the hitters getting better due to coming back to the norm, the pitchers will do the same, as we are starting to see. Ownership needs to realize and remember the FO has assembled this lineup that strikeouts out at an impressive rate, quite possible of setting a MLB record this year. Oh well, the Twins have the HR record, they might as well have the K record too. Every year they tout how much better the team is going to be verses last year, feeding the hype to the fans. 2023 looks to be another repeat of disappointment and failure. The young guys need to play. Kepler, Gallo, Buxton, Correa, Taylor, Vazquez aren't getting it done but they are the veterans getting the big bucks so that's who we get regardless, When the ship sinks again this year, remember who didn't throw out the dead weight. 

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    1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

    I agree that we tend to be a little too negative here about the team. I think that's because we had higher expectations than were justified. The 'experts" predicted 80-85 wins. I think we're going to be on the higher end of that - after 1/3 of the season we projected to 84 wins (28-26 x 3 = 84-78) - and that's with injury issues. I think we may have overhyped ourselves into thinking this was a 90+ win team and anything less than that seems like a disappointment.

    I'm an optimist because I think the hardest thing to find is good starting pitching and we have a very good rotation that looks like it will be good in the future. We have some young talent that looks like it may be coming of age in Kirilloff and Jeffers, and we have Lewis, Julien, Castro, Wallner, and Larnach who may join them. All positive and all fun. 

    Here's the 2 things that drag me down.  First, Correa and Buxton are simply not performing and it's starting to look like it's more than just a slump. I don't think Buxton will perform as a DH. It's hard to do that and I think he would benefit from playing in the field, injury risk and all. Frankly, having him on the IL is not a whole lot less production than we've gotten from him the last 15-20 games. Correa looks hurt and should sit for 10 days if we think that will help. If not, move him to the 5 or 6 hole and leave him there until he hits. 

    Second, I just don't understand why we won't embrace the youth movement. We need to accept that we probably aren't a WS contender and this could be a great year to play the younger guys, develop them, and probably still win the division. The old core simply isn't good enough. We need to play Kirilloff, Lewis, Castro, Julien, and Wallner every day to see what they got. Catch Jeffers 50% or more of the time. Instead, we trot out guys who don't really contribute much and won't be here next year - Kepler, Solano, Taylor, Pagan and soon Maeda (watch, he will go into the rotation and Varland will go to AAA).  Gallo is ok but not really what we need. DFA Solano, bench or trade Kepler and Taylor, call up Wallner, see if there's a market for Gallo, and put Buxton in the field so the younger guys can play every day by opening up the DH spot and LF.  

    This could be a fun team to watch and it just isn't very fun or very successful. I'm willing to take a chance on our short term success to make them more fun and improve our long term chances. Turn over the roster and go. 

    LA, Your post makes a lot of sense to me. 

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    It didn't take long for Lewis long to join the parade of strike out majorettes. He grabbed the baton last night and led the team with 3. It's contagious.

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    From the movie MAJOR LEAGUE when Jake follows his sweetheart to her new boyfriends party ...

    Jake is sitting on the sofa and during the conversation an older lady asked Jake what he did for a living  , JAKES REPLY WAS HE PLAYED FOR THE CLEVELAND Guardians  ( now the guardians), she was shocked and replied , I DIDN'T EVEN KNOW CLEVELAND STILL HAD A TEAM , Jake replied , yes the do and we have uniforms and everything  ...

    THE PRESENT TWINS TEAM ...

    The way the twins are playing and attendance is falling  this might be the way of the twins , people won't even know we have a major league  sports team and new uniforms  anymore ... 

    I wish we had Lou brown managing the the twins because he took a team of pretenders and made them contenders ...

     

    F*** you jo boo ...

    I know it was just a movie but has similarities of the twins play  ...

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    1 hour ago, Beast said:

    We should be impressed that they’ve gotten elite starting pitching from multiple guys and still can’t find a way to separate themselves from the worst division in baseball?

    We’re talking about the likes of Sonny Gray, here.  Good pitcher,  but that guy isn’t going to throw up a 1.50 ERA indefinitely going forward.  He’s going to come back to earth.  So is Joe Ryan (as we saw last night).

    I’m not impressed at all that they’ve found a way to squander the best run of starting pitching I’ve seen here in my lifetime.  I’m more worried about what it looks like when that normalizes and regression catches up to those starters.  Things could get very ugly.

    We’re sure as heck not going to be carried by this offense or bullpen.  We’re starting to see it catch up with them now, losing 4 series in a row and a likely 5th in Houston.

    We have not won two games in a row since the cubbies  , almost 20 games ago  ...

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    1 hour ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

    I think the truth about Pablo Lopez is that he’s just a good pitcher, nothing more, definitely not flirting with Ace status. He has actually had trouble staying healthy for a full season, so first things first. I get this is a fan site, but I think Twins Daily writers fail when they fail to set realistic expectations.

    I do expect Sonny Gray to continue pitching well, and I am going to enjoy the Joe Ryan ride for as long as it lasts. He looks pretty sound. I do feel like Rocco is removing Gray from starts too soon and I wonder if there are some mind games happening. That kind of thing does happen. 

    I also think it’s a little odd that Lopez was the main guy behind the fishing vest thing. He should be doing pitcher stuff, not hitter stuff!. 🙂

    Good pitching will continue to keep them in games. 

    Good starting pitching is keeping us in the games but where are the other formulas to win them  ???

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    2 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

    It's odd that folks keep assuming that the hitting will "naturally" improve, but the pitching somehow won't decline. It will. We see that already.

    They had a clear opportunity to be ten or more games up in the Central, with a large enough buffer to let the summer play out without too much stress on the recently-recovering players and prospects. Instead, they'll be lucky to not be surpassed by Detroit in a week. There is almost zero fight in this team.

    No, I can't share your optimism. They've been gifted a hefty payroll (by AL Central standards), "superstar" signings, enviable rotation depth, and yet they can't make anything happen. Most of the players and prospects they gave up are shining, and most of the ones they kept are sinking ... or already sunk. 

    Fans are down because we can clearly see what's on the horizon - another winnable division and another lost season. This team will continue to reward skeptics and punish believers. Good for you for believing, though. Honestly. Personally, I can't.

    Punishing believers like the fans ...

    Rewarding the coaches with extended contracts ...

    I wish the pohlads were true fans of baseball and not just businessmen  , then they could see why the fans are aggravated with the style of baseball  ( or lack of style )  the FO and Rocco are playing ...

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    For the month of May

    Buxton        179/324/321   6 RBI               bench him for awhile

    Gallo           179/319/360    9 RBI              see above

    Correa         220/324/407  14 RBI             he's the slugger in this group

    Kepler         130/216/348     6 RBI             bench him

    Taylor         157/204/294    5 RBI              see above

    Miranda      250/304/355  12 RBI            For April - got sent down

    Larnach      231/343/385    17 RBI           For April - got sent down 3 games into May

    Kirilloff       303/439/485    7 RBI            For May - walked 7 times in past 3 games. Pitchers quit pitching to him and he isn't swinging crazy.

     

    In fairness Farmer has been pretty good   287/347/394    9 RBI for May..

    If it were up to me I know who i'd have sent down and who would be hitting in the middle of the lineup. But with only a couple guys hitting, the others teams pitchers aren't going to give them anything to hit. Why would you?

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    1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

    My prediction was 90+ wins, with this starting pitching and my thought was the offense would be a bit better than average, not this Sh!t show they are running out everyday.

    As for the youth movement, this is the 7th year of this FO and after the last two anything less than a playoff win is unacceptable to me and it seems they are thinking the same. I thought Ober or Varland should have been in the rotation to start (youth), and that Julien started the season in the majors again slowly implementing the youth, with the hope of AK and Lewis would be coming up.

     

    I agree. I would like to see them continue the trend by playing Wallner over Kepler, Julien over Solano, and Castro over Taylor. Doing this requires Buxton to play the field.  Put Maeda in the bullpen when he's ready over Pagan and leave Ober and Varland in the rotation. To me, that's the youth movement we need.  

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    Wow, take a breath folks.  The Twins are in first place and should remain there.  If so, they are heading to the playoffs and for once we have the pitching to compete.

    As a side note the Twins are 15th in runs scored.  For comparison SD with a star studded lineup is 24th. 

    Our lineup is built around 2 players who are underperforming and are likely receiving around 30% of the payroll.  The next best player (Polanco) is hurt.  Miranda was the tip of the youth movement and was a dumpster fire.  The rest of the cast in sum is doing about as expected.

    It has been frustrating and a bit dull to watch.  I do expect that we will see some better baseball ahead.  I also think that the concerns about pitchers regressing is overblown.  Nothing in the underlying metrics suggests they have been lucky.  The bigger risk for our starting pitching is injury.  Not many teams will get to the end of the season with all of their starters intact..

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    2 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

    I think the truth about Pablo Lopez is that he’s just a good pitcher, nothing more, definitely not flirting with Ace status. He has actually had trouble staying healthy for a full season, so first things first. I get this is a fan site, but I think Twins Daily writers fail when they fail to set realistic expectations.

    I do expect Sonny Gray to continue pitching well, and I am going to enjoy the Joe Ryan ride for as long as it lasts. He looks pretty sound. I do feel like Rocco is removing Gray from starts too soon and I wonder if there are some mind games happening. That kind of thing does happen. 

    I also think it’s a little odd that Lopez was the main guy behind the fishing vest thing. He should be doing pitcher stuff, not hitter stuff!. 🙂

    Good pitching will continue to keep them in games. 

    P. Lopez may be a pitcher, but apparently he knows more about hitting than some of the Twins position players. 

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    3 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

    I agree that we tend to be a little too negative here about the team. I think that's because we had higher expectations than were justified. The 'experts" predicted 80-85 wins. I think we're going to be on the higher end of that - after 1/3 of the season we projected to 84 wins (28-26 x 3 = 84-78) - and that's with injury issues. I think we may have overhyped ourselves into thinking this was a 90+ win team and anything less than that seems like a disappointment.

    That prediction also included Cleveland and Chicago being competitive. They haven't been. At all. 

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