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Entering the 2025 MLB regular season, the Minnesota Twins' greatest area of strength is their bullpen. Headlined by star closer Jhoan Durán, elite set-up reliever Griffin Jax, breakout high-leverage arm Cole Sands and bounce back candidate Brock Stewart, FanGraphs's ZiPS projects Minnesota's bullpen to lead MLB with 6.0 Wins Above Replacement (fWAR). Since newly-acquired reliever Danny Coulombe (ZiPS projects him to net 0.4 fWAR in 2025) had not yet signed with Minnesota when the club's ZiPS projection was published, the model presumably possesses loftier expectations for a unit rich with premium talent.
After Durán, Jax, Sands, Stewart, and Coulombe, FanGraphs's roster resource expects the Twins' last three bullpen spots to be claimed by Jorge Alcalá, Michael Tonkin, and Eiberson Castellano. That said, recent roster projections from a handful of beat writers in Fort Myers suggest otherwise.
On Monday, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune released his first roster projection of the offseason. In the article, Nightengale agreed that Durán, Jax, Sands, Stewart, Coulombe, Tonkin, and Alcalá would make the club out of spring training. However, he removed Castellano for starter-turned-reliever Louis Varland .
Minnesota selected Castellano in the Rule 5 Draft, meaning the front office would need to keep the 23-year-old hurler on the 26-man roster for the entire season to maintain his services. The hard-tossing righty has yet to pitch past Double-A. Although he's an intriguing, young arm, electing to keep him in favor of more talented and experienced relievers would be a steep ask for a club with postseason aspirations. Nevertheless, entering the season with Varland over Castellano would be a wise decision for Twins decision-makers, even if it meant forfeiting Castellano's rights and returning him to the Philadelphia Phillies.
In their second roster projection of the offseason, Dan Hayes and Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic expressed a similar train of thought, also predicting Durán, Jax, Stewart, Sands, Coulombe, Alcalá, and Tonkin to occupy seven of the unit's eight spots. However, the two writers expect right-handed reliever Justin Topa to beat out Castellano for the club's eighth bullpen spot instead of Varland. Those in touch with the club expect Castellano's time in Minnesota to be cut short. That said, inconsistency surrounding who they think will earn the eighth bullpen spot indicates more uncertainty encircles the unit.
As noted, Nightengale chose Varland to usurp Castellano, while Hayes and Gleeman selected Topa. One will likely earn a bullpen spot to begin the season. But what if it's both? Yes, Varland and Topa both possess minor-league options. Yet, shouldn't the club be inclined to field its eight best relievers? If Varland and Topa impress during spring training, Minnesota could have no choice but to reward both hard-throwing righties with spots on the eight-pitcher unit. If that's the case, the odd pitcher out alongside Castellano could be Alcalá.
In his piece, Nightengale noted, "Alcalá lacked consistency at times, but few pitchers on the staff can match the potency of his pitch mix."
Despite generating an encouraging 3.24 ERA, 4.14 FIP, and 58-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 58 1/3 innings pitched last season, the hard-tossing righty was optioned to Triple-A three times last season, including a startling demotion for Cole Irvin (eek!) in mid-September. Alcalá's fastball, slider, and changeup are plus pitches that play at the major-league level. That said, the front office has demonstrated a willingness to demote the 29-year-old, particularly when those who follow the team least expect it.
On the surface, optioning Alcalá to Triple-A to begin the season seems unlikely. He was better than Varland last season, and Topa is returning from a torn patellar tendon in his left knee that left him out for nearly all of 2024. That said, the front office values depth, especially in the bullpen. Interestingly, electing to hand Varland or Topa the final bullpen spot over Alcalá would be a wise decision from a depth-accruing perspective. Alcalá is eight games away from receiving five years of service time, meaning he can no longer be optioned to the minors without first being placed on waivers.
If Minnesota were to place Alcalá on waivers, he would be claimed immediately, signaling team decision-makers would understandably do everything possible to avoid that lose-lose scenario. Varland is nowhere near five years of service time. Topa, on the other hand, is nearing five years of service. However, Minnesota has more leeway to take advantage of his remaining options than Alcalá. That being the case, if Varland, Topa, or the under-the-radar arms in Kody Funderburk, Matt Canterino, or Travis Adams shine in camp, the organization could reasonably decide to manipulate the little service time they still can with Alcalá.
Should they?
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