Could Bailey Ober Still Win A Rotation Spot?

So far this spring Ober has shown he is a legit starter and he already has a good track record in MLB, it is just injury that has held him back.  I am not sure I love the 6 man rotation idea unless the starters are all pretty consistent to start the year and can go 6 innings fairly consistently. At the same time you can't put a starting arm in AAA if he is one of your best 26 players he needs to be on the MLB club and I believe Ober is too good to be playing in AAA.

I think I would rather they do some type of Piggy backing starters concept and I think a Maeda\Ober pairing are two guys who could use fewer innings pitched and would be good used that way.  One guy starts and goes 5 innings and the other could hopefully take the next 4. Both guys can stay stretched out and it doesn't have to ding the the bullpen too much.  I get there is risk in that approach as one guy could be rolling and then next guy could flop or vice versa but for me it is a way to use your best 6 starting pitchers and not hurt the bullpen too much.

I think Ober is too good to get squeezed out so they need to do something to keep him on the roster.  Whether that is a 6 man rotation or bullpen long man type deal doesn't matter to me as long as the best arms are pitching at the MLB level.

The incentives in Maeda's contract (I believe) are primarily based on him being a starting pitcher.  Moving him to the bullpen would make him a severely underpaid player (in the financial fantasy world of major league baseball, not the real world).  If the Twins are thinking of doing that, they ought to renegotiate his contract for this year.  And if they have any thought of keeping beyond 2023, now would be a good time to make him a three-year offer at a solid reliever price.

Ok, let's say there aren't injuries between now and opening day, how would you lay out your pitching rotation?

Here is a thought...

1) Lopez

2) Mahle

3) Ryan

4) Gray

5) Ober

Bullpen

Maeda

Moran

Alcala

Pagan

Thielbar

Jax

Duran

Lopez

This would mover Megill and Cole Sands to AAA, but it lines up ok right? The order of the starting rotation could change, Thoughts?

If they can work something out with Maeda to put him into the pen as a setup guy (not long relief) to build up arm strength that would be ideal. Otherwise I would use Ober in the pen to be a setup guy along side of Jax. Either one could be moved into the rotation if and when an injury hits, or used in spot starts.

33 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I don't think we should count on injuries very soon in the season. With a regular season & being further remove from the covid season SPs will be healthy & stretched out. From the beginning, I've said that Maeda should be in long relief. Because of his long absence & his experience there. Maeda is having a good ST but Ober is much better. I'm a firm believer if a player is in competition in ST & plays well, he should be rewarded and be put on the active roster.

Ober should be put on the active roster. A 6-man rotation will compromise the BP & most likely disrupt the rhythm of the SPs. So I'm against that. Maeda, Ober and possibly Mahle should be on a limited pitch count. So a long RP is needed to fill in, in a piggy-back situation or whatever. Ober should be experimented with to see if he can adapt to long relief ideally, otherwise it's Maeda.

Ober said he wants to be on the roster together with the guys, no matter the capacity. Management needs to oblige him.

It's not like Ober is a flash in the pan, who just began showing his worth in this spring training. All through his career, he has proven to be a pitcher with outstanding control. He had a good year last year and could not have been any better in spring training so far. If he continues this success in spring training, the Twins must make him a regular starter. The Twins already need a long reliever, and Maeda fits this mold. Bottom line is I have more faith in Ober as a starter, than I do in Maeda. Ober is beating Meada out for the 5th starter position so far, based on past performances and on this spring training's performances. 

2 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

It's not like Ober is a flash in the pan, who just began showing his worth in this spring training. All through his career, he has proven to be a pitcher with outstanding control. He had a good year last year and could not have been any better in spring training so far. If he continues this success in spring training, the Twins must make him a regular starter. The Twins already need a long reliever, and Maeda fits this mold. Bottom line is I have more faith in Ober as a starter, than I do in Maeda. Ober is beating Meada out for the 5th starter position so far, based on past performances and on this spring training's performances. 

Ober's stuff looks great right now. I hope he can throw more than 100 innings in a season at some point. Maybe 2023 is that year?

I think Ober gets optioned to start the season, but the first tight muscle or tweak for a starter sends that guy to the IL for a two start "break". After that, the next tight muscle or discomfort until someone is legitimately out for a while. I don't think Maeda will be sent to the bullpen early and the only way he ends up there is if he is the least effective starter and Ober is waiting for a spot.

29 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I think Ober gets optioned to start the season, but the first tight muscle or tweak for a starter sends that guy to the IL for a two start "break". After that, the next tight muscle or discomfort until someone is legitimately out for a while. I don't think Maeda will be sent to the bullpen early and the only way he ends up there is if he is the least effective starter and Ober is waiting for a spot.

That seems the most likely option as things stand.  Maeda has a good faith contract with incentives based on starting.  The Twins won't put him in the pen as they have done everything they can to help players on incentive laden contracts reach their incentive's.  Look no further than Buxton last year.  They let him limp around on one leg to try and get him as many plate attempts\games played as possible.  A team has to follow through on those types of deals otherwise players will never sign them.

I guess they could offer to pay Maeda the full value of this years contract with the stipulation of playing him anywhere but at least in the past he has always viewed himself as a starter and would like to remain a starter so still not sure if he would go along with that or not.  I just don't see Maeda in the pen unless his arm wears down and I don't see the Twins changing the terms of the contract that they signed on for.

So yeah I think you are right is they are only going 5 starters then Ober most likely starts in AAA.

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Ok, let's say there aren't injuries between now and opening day, how would you lay out your pitching rotation?

Here is a thought...

1) Lopez

2) Mahle

3) Ryan

4) Gray

5) Ober

 

Bullpen

Maeda

Moran

Alcala

Pagan

Thielbar

Jax

Duran

Lopez

 

This would mover Megill and Cole Sands to AAA, but it lines up ok right? The order of the starting rotation could change, Thoughts?

Like it a lot with one exception. Pagan gets sent  to AAA or waived and Sands makes the team as the long man. I odn't know and can't find Pagan's option situation so I'm not sure if either goes to AAA or gets waived and possibly lost. Frankly, don't know and don't much care.

Ain't it grand to be having this discussion based on performance?

If Ober is going to be in the rotation long-term, start him now. He has nothing to gain in AAA and Maeda probably hits the market next year, so let’s build up Ober’s innings and test his durability over the year.

Salient points in my mind...

• They signed veterans to be starters and will give them every opportunity.
• There are only two off days in April, but they can be used judiciously.
• A 6-man rotation has merit, but whenever there is an off day, it gives a starter six days between starts, meaning two extra days.
• A 6-man rotation also shortens the bullpen by a body.
• Ober has only pitched more than 100 innings once, so he will be on some sort of innings limit. 

So here's what I would do.

1. Start with a 5-man rotation of the veterans. With days off on March 31 and April 7, using a 5-man rotation actually gives every starter an extra day on the first two-plus times through the rotation, with just one exception. The starter on Sat., April 1, would come back on four days rest on Thurs., April 6.
2. After that exception, the next time that a starter would be pitching on four days rest is on April 13, coming off the April 8 start. Thus, I'd option Ober to STP (or keep in extended spring training) and run with an eight-man bullpen, bringing Ober up for the April 13 start. At that point, run with a 6-man rotation.
3. Keeping Ober down until April 13 keeps a couple extra innings off his arm and allows the "normal" eight-man bullpen to that point. The plus for extended spring training over STP is that his "game" days before April 13 can be micromanaged at an appropriate number of pitches/innings. The inability to be able to control/structure his innings and rest is why I wouldn't put him in the MLB bullpen. 
4. This assumes no injuries. If (when) one occurs, simply insert Ober into the rotation and roll with him and the remaining four vets. In the unlikely event of no injuries happening, April 18 starts a string of 13 straight games and 30 games in 32 days, when it could actually be a benefit to be using a 6-man rotation. The 30-in-32 days stretch goes through May 17, however, and the likelihood of being injury-free until then is virtually nil.

Here's the way the first part of the season works in this scenario:

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

here's what I would do.

1. Start with a 5-man rotation. With days off on March 31 and April 7, using a 5-man rotation actually gives every starter an extra day on the first two-plus times through the rotation, with just one exception. The starter on Sat., April 1, would come back on four days rest on Thurs., April 6.
2. After that exception, the next time that a starter would be pitching on four days rest is on April 13, coming off the April 8 start. Thus, I'd option Ober to STP (or keep in extended spring training) and run with an eight-man bullpen, bringing Ober up for the April 13 start. At that point, run with a 6-man rotation.
3. Keeping Ober down until April 13 keeps a couple extra innings off his arm and allows the "normal" eight-man bullpen to that point. The plus for extended spring training over STP is that his "game" days before April 13 can be micro managed at an appropriate number of pitches/innings. The inability to be able to control/structure his innings and rest is why I wouldn't put him in the MLB bullpen. 
4. This assumes no injuries. If (when) one occurs, simply insert Ober into the rotation and roll with him and the remaining four vets. In the unlikely event of no injuries happening, April 18 starts a string of 13 straight games and 30 games in 32 days, when it could actually be a benefit to be using a 6-man rotation. The 30-in-32 days stretch goes through May 17, however, and the likelihood of being injury-free until then is virtually nil.

Here's the way the first part of the season works in this scenario:

 

I think that this is the most likely outcome -- assuming no injuries prior to that time.  Essentially, Ober "goes away" for a couple of weeks and shows back up when the overall pitching workload gets high, then sticks around for a while.  I can't imagine that one of the pitchers wouldn't need a day off by skipping a start by the time we get to May either. 

No matter how I look at it, I don't see the Twins putting Maeda in the bullpen to start the season.  It's possible through innings limits and ineffectiveness he may find himself there, but initially he's likely to start games. 

Too many effective starters in spring training. . . Wow!  I never thought that would be a problem!

2 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Like it a lot with one exception. Pagan gets sent  to AAA or waived and Sands makes the team as the long man. I odn't know and can't find Pagan's option situation so I'm not sure if either goes to AAA or gets waived and possibly lost. Frankly, don't know and don't much care.

Pagan can't be optioned without his consent. He would be DFAed and taken off the 40-man roster. I don't think Sands has performed the best of possible long relievers and opening a spot for a non-roster pitcher who has pitched better--Dobnak, de Leon, Dereck Rodriquez, and others--and there would be a spot for whoever has p;itched the best.