Could Bailey Ober Still Win A Rotation Spot?

TopGunn#22 · March 15

The fact that Maeda has pitched out of the bullpen, and effectively, makes me think Ober has a real shot at cracking the rotation. I know Maeda's contract is loaded with incentives, but he's probably not in any long term plans either. And being a long man out of the pen to begin with may actually be beneficial to Maeda. The idea of a 6 man rotation is interesting, but especially to start the season, with off days aplenty, I don't like that the time between starts could be too long for some pitchers. Guys like Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan want the ball and too much rest may not be helpful.

Dman · March 15

So far this spring Ober has shown he is a legit starter and he already has a good track record in MLB, it is just injury that has held him back. I am not sure I love the 6 man rotation idea unless the starters are all pretty consistent to start the year and can go 6 innings fairly consistently. At the same time you can't put a starting arm in AAA if he is one of your best 26 players he needs to be on the MLB club and I believe Ober is too good to be playing in AAA.

I think I would rather they do some type of Piggy backing starters concept and I think a Maeda\Ober pairing are two guys who could use fewer innings pitched and would be good used that way. One guy starts and goes 5 innings and the other could hopefully take the next 4. Both guys can stay stretched out and it doesn't have to ding the the bullpen too much. I get there is risk in that approach as one guy could be rolling and then next guy could flop or vice versa but for me it is a way to use your best 6 starting pitchers and not hurt the bullpen too much.

I think Ober is too good to get squeezed out so they need to do something to keep him on the roster. Whether that is a 6 man rotation or bullpen long man type deal doesn't matter to me as long as the best arms are pitching at the MLB level.

terrydactyls · March 15

The incentives in Maeda's contract (I believe) are primarily based on him being a starting pitcher. Moving him to the bullpen would make him a severely underpaid player (in the financial fantasy world of major league baseball, not the real world). If the Twins are thinking of doing that, they ought to renegotiate his contract for this year. And if they have any thought of keeping beyond 2023, now would be a good time to make him a three-year offer at a solid reliever price.

Cory Engelhardt · March 15

Ok, let's say there aren't injuries between now and opening day, how would you lay out your pitching rotation?

Here is a thought...

1) Lopez

2) Mahle

3) Ryan

4) Gray

5) Ober

Bullpen

Maeda

Moran

Alcala

Pagan

Thielbar

Jax

Duran

Lopez

This would mover Megill and Cole Sands to AAA, but it lines up ok right? The order of the starting rotation could change, Thoughts?

Dave Lemke · March 15

Only 2 off days in April. A 6 man rotation could have some merit for April at least.

Ricky Vaughn · March 15

I'm a believer in Baily Ober, and think he belongs in the rotation. Considering Meda's age I think it would be in his best interest to start the year in long relief to strengthen and condition his arm after 1.5 years . Then move him into the rotation after a couple months, or at the next injury. I know he wouldn't like it but it it would be better for him in the long run.

mikelink45 · March 15

I'd love to see Ober in the rotation. But I just don't see the twins doing that. They signed their veteran pitchers for a reason and they may feel committed that way.

Are there any other young pitchers who are looking good this year.

Karbo · March 15

If they can work something out with Maeda to put him into the pen as a setup guy (not long relief) to build up arm strength that would be ideal. Otherwise I would use Ober in the pen to be a setup guy along side of Jax. Either one could be moved into the rotation if and when an injury hits, or used in spot starts.

Doctor Gast · March 15

I don't think we should count on injuries very soon in the season. With a regular season & being further remove from the covid season SPs will be healthy & stretched out. From the beginning, I've said that Maeda should be in long relief. Because of his long absence & his experience there. Maeda is having a good ST but Ober is much better. I'm a firm believer if a player is in competition in ST & plays well, he should be rewarded and be put on the active roster.

Ober should be put on the active roster. A 6-man rotation will compromise the BP & most likely disrupt the rhythm of the SPs. So I'm against that. Maeda, Ober and possibly Mahle should be on a limited pitch count. So a long RP is needed to fill in, in a piggy-back situation or whatever. Ober should be experimented with to see if he can adapt to long relief ideally, otherwise it's Maeda.

Ober said he wants to be on the roster together with the guys, no matter the capacity. Management needs to oblige him.

JD-TWINS · March 15

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Ok, let's say there aren't injuries between now and opening day, how would you lay out your pitching rotation?

Here is a thought...

1) Lopez

2) Mahle

3) Ryan

4) Gray

5) Ober

Bullpen

Maeda

Moran

Alcala

Pagan

Thielbar

Jax

Duran

Lopez

This would mover Megill and Cole Sands to AAA, but it lines up ok right? The order of the starting rotation could change, Thoughts?

Maeda starting the year in relief is a favorite of mine for months. Can’t waste Ober’s good health & limited inning build-up in St Paul.

Maeda can prove himself and build-up innings while working a couple innings at a time out of Pen. After we get to June can sort/predict who the 5th guy should be when we get into August dog days. Might have 2 candidates or we might to bring someone up from St Paul.

You’re probably right with the staff as laid out……I think, based on eye test, that an improved Megill is better than an improved Pagan. Pagan is tough to swallow for everyone on the 26 man!

tarheeltwinsfan · March 15

33 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I don't think we should count on injuries very soon in the season. With a regular season & being further remove from the covid season SPs will be healthy & stretched out. From the beginning, I've said that Maeda should be in long relief. Because of his long absence & his experience there. Maeda is having a good ST but Ober is much better. I'm a firm believer if a player is in competition in ST & plays well, he should be rewarded and be put on the active roster.

Ober should be put on the active roster. A 6-man rotation will compromise the BP & most likely disrupt the rhythm of the SPs. So I'm against that. Maeda, Ober and possibly Mahle should be on a limited pitch count. So a long RP is needed to fill in, in a piggy-back situation or whatever. Ober should be experimented with to see if he can adapt to long relief ideally, otherwise it's Maeda.

Ober said he wants to be on the roster together with the guys, no matter the capacity. Management needs to oblige him.

It's not like Ober is a flash in the pan, who just began showing his worth in this spring training. All through his career, he has proven to be a pitcher with outstanding control. He had a good year last year and could not have been any better in spring training so far. If he continues this success in spring training, the Twins must make him a regular starter. The Twins already need a long reliever, and Maeda fits this mold. Bottom line is I have more faith in Ober as a starter, than I do in Maeda. Ober is beating Meada out for the 5th starter position so far, based on past performances and on this spring training's performances.

Cory Engelhardt · March 15

2 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

It's not like Ober is a flash in the pan, who just began showing his worth in this spring training. All through his career, he has proven to be a pitcher with outstanding control. He had a good year last year and could not have been any better in spring training so far. If he continues this success in spring training, the Twins must make him a regular starter. The Twins already need a long reliever, and Maeda fits this mold. Bottom line is I have more faith in Ober as a starter, than I do in Maeda. Ober is beating Meada out for the 5th starter position so far, based on past performances and on this spring training's performances.

Ober's stuff looks great right now. I hope he can throw more than 100 innings in a season at some point. Maybe 2023 is that year?

stringer bell · March 15

I think Ober gets optioned to start the season, but the first tight muscle or tweak for a starter sends that guy to the IL for a two start "break". After that, the next tight muscle or discomfort until someone is legitimately out for a while. I don't think Maeda will be sent to the bullpen early and the only way he ends up there is if he is the least effective starter and Ober is waiting for a spot.

Dman · March 15

29 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I think Ober gets optioned to start the season, but the first tight muscle or tweak for a starter sends that guy to the IL for a two start "break". After that, the next tight muscle or discomfort until someone is legitimately out for a while. I don't think Maeda will be sent to the bullpen early and the only way he ends up there is if he is the least effective starter and Ober is waiting for a spot.

That seems the most likely option as things stand. Maeda has a good faith contract with incentives based on starting. The Twins won't put him in the pen as they have done everything they can to help players on incentive laden contracts reach their incentive's. Look no further than Buxton last year. They let him limp around on one leg to try and get him as many plate attempts\games played as possible. A team has to follow through on those types of deals otherwise players will never sign them.

I guess they could offer to pay Maeda the full value of this years contract with the stipulation of playing him anywhere but at least in the past he has always viewed himself as a starter and would like to remain a starter so still not sure if he would go along with that or not. I just don't see Maeda in the pen unless his arm wears down and I don't see the Twins changing the terms of the contract that they signed on for.

So yeah I think you are right is they are only going 5 starters then Ober most likely starts in AAA.

LA VIkes Fan · March 15

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Ok, let's say there aren't injuries between now and opening day, how would you lay out your pitching rotation?

Here is a thought...

1) Lopez

2) Mahle

3) Ryan

4) Gray

5) Ober

Bullpen

Maeda

Moran

Alcala

Pagan

Thielbar

Jax

Duran

Lopez

This would mover Megill and Cole Sands to AAA, but it lines up ok right? The order of the starting rotation could change, Thoughts?

Like it a lot with one exception. Pagan gets sent to AAA or waived and Sands makes the team as the long man. I odn't know and can't find Pagan's option situation so I'm not sure if either goes to AAA or gets waived and possibly lost. Frankly, don't know and don't much care.

Jocko87 · March 15

Ain't it grand to be having this discussion based on performance?

Danchat · March 15

If Ober is going to be in the rotation long-term, start him now. He has nothing to gain in AAA and Maeda probably hits the market next year, so let’s build up Ober’s innings and test his durability over the year.

IndianaTwin · March 15

Salient points in my mind...

They signed veterans to be starters and will give them every opportunity.
There are only two off days in April, but they can be used judiciously.
A 6-man rotation has merit, but whenever there is an off day, it gives a starter six days between starts, meaning two extra days.
A 6-man rotation also shortens the bullpen by a body.
Ober has only pitched more than 100 innings once, so he will be on some sort of innings limit.

So here's what I would do.

Start with a 5-man rotation of the veterans. With days off on March 31 and April 7, using a 5-man rotation actually gives every starter an extra day on the first two-plus times through the rotation, with just one exception. The starter on Sat., April 1, would come back on four days rest on Thurs., April 6.
After that exception, the next time that a starter would be pitching on four days rest is on April 13, coming off the April 8 start. Thus, I'd option Ober to STP (or keep in extended spring training) and run with an eight-man bullpen, bringing Ober up for the April 13 start. At that point, run with a 6-man rotation.
Keeping Ober down until April 13 keeps a couple extra innings off his arm and allows the "normal" eight-man bullpen to that point. The plus for extended spring training over STP is that his "game" days before April 13 can be micromanaged at an appropriate number of pitches/innings. The inability to be able to control/structure his innings and rest is why I wouldn't put him in the MLB bullpen.
This assumes no injuries. If (when) one occurs, simply insert Ober into the rotation and roll with him and the remaining four vets. In the unlikely event of no injuries happening, April 18 starts a string of 13 straight games and 30 games in 32 days, when it could actually be a benefit to be using a 6-man rotation. The 30-in-32 days stretch goes through May 17, however, and the likelihood of being injury-free until then is virtually nil.

Here's the way the first part of the season works in this scenario:

image.png.304ef521bd03a335460db49f8adb786d.png

farmerguychris · March 15

Let the best pitchers make the opening day roster - If that means having a 6 man rotation, so be it. I can't imagine having 6 healthy pitchers for very long, so why not start with 6 and then have 5 before long? 7 relievers is enough.

Rod Carews Birthday · March 15

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

here's what I would do.

Start with a 5-man rotation. With days off on March 31 and April 7, using a 5-man rotation actually gives every starter an extra day on the first two-plus times through the rotation, with just one exception. The starter on Sat., April 1, would come back on four days rest on Thurs., April 6.

After that exception, the next time that a starter would be pitching on four days rest is on April 13, coming off the April 8 start. Thus, I'd option Ober to STP (or keep in extended spring training) and run with an eight-man bullpen, bringing Ober up for the April 13 start. At that point, run with a 6-man rotation.

Keeping Ober down until April 13 keeps a couple extra innings off his arm and allows the "normal" eight-man bullpen to that point. The plus for extended spring training over STP is that his "game" days before April 13 can be micro managed at an appropriate number of pitches/innings. The inability to be able to control/structure his innings and rest is why I wouldn't put him in the MLB bullpen.

This assumes no injuries. If (when) one occurs, simply insert Ober into the rotation and roll with him and the remaining four vets. In the unlikely event of no injuries happening, April 18 starts a string of 13 straight games and 30 games in 32 days, when it could actually be a benefit to be using a 6-man rotation. The 30-in-32 days stretch goes through May 17, however, and the likelihood of being injury-free until then is virtually nil.

Here's the way the first part of the season works in this scenario:

I think that this is the most likely outcome -- assuming no injuries prior to that time. Essentially, Ober "goes away" for a couple of weeks and shows back up when the overall pitching workload gets high, then sticks around for a while. I can't imagine that one of the pitchers wouldn't need a day off by skipping a start by the time we get to May either.

No matter how I look at it, I don't see the Twins putting Maeda in the bullpen to start the season. It's possible through innings limits and ineffectiveness he may find himself there, but initially he's likely to start games.

Too many effective starters in spring training. . . Wow! I never thought that would be a problem!

Verified Member · March 15

At the detriment of increasing my "reputation point" I submit the following.

Kenta will make $3 million± base salary this year. Additionally, here are his incentives:

image.png.0ac0671c2d89b8afcdf91f0af2423150.png

I would like to see Ober piggybacked onto Meada's starts. To open the season let Kenta pitch a predetermined three to five innings and then Ober takes over. Ober will prepare as if it is a start in his predetermined inning. If Kenta needs to come out of the game due to poor performance a relief pitcher/s enters and pitches until Ober's inning comes up. This way the Twins can roster Ober and keep Kenta's bonuses intact. If Kenta is effective his innings increase and Ober pitches fewer and hopefully stays healthy. If Kenta proves he is not capable/worthy of being a starter the he is going to the bullpen and Ober takes over his starts.

Contract info from: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/minnesota-twins/kenta-maeda-18451/

stringer bell · March 15

2 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Like it a lot with one exception. Pagan gets sent to AAA or waived and Sands makes the team as the long man. I odn't know and can't find Pagan's option situation so I'm not sure if either goes to AAA or gets waived and possibly lost. Frankly, don't know and don't much care.

Pagan can't be optioned without his consent. He would be DFAed and taken off the 40-man roster. I don't think Sands has performed the best of possible long relievers and opening a spot for a non-roster pitcher who has pitched better--Dobnak, de Leon, Dereck Rodriquez, and others--and there would be a spot for whoever has p;itched the best.

chpettit19 · March 15

It's fascinating to me that people want to move Maeda because they don't trust him being able to throw a bunch of innings, but want to replace him with Ober who's cracked 100 innings in a season 1 time in his professional career. If I were a betting man, I'd bet on Maeda getting more innings this year than Ober. And they're not sending Maeda to the pen to start the year unless they restructure that contract. It's simply not an option, and they'd never do it. Every agent they ever approach with an incentive laden deal in the future would point to them putting Maeda in the pen and say "there's no chance my guy signs a deal with incentives in it."

I agree Ober is too good to be wasted in AAA, but he's also got to be handled in a way that makes it hard to put him on the ML roster if he's not in the rotation, and they don't want to run with a 6 man rotation. I do like the idea outlined above of having him wait until a couple weeks into April to arrive and join a 6 man rotation. That's an interesting plan I think could work well. Piggy backing could also work, and being able to get 8 or 9 innings out of Maeda and Ober every 5th day would be great. A long relief role for Ober would have to be very structured. With his injury concerns you can't have him sitting around waiting for random appearances. It's either piggyback him or send him to AAA in my mind.

TwinsDr2021 · March 16

14 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I agree Ober is too good to be wasted in AAA, but he's also got to be handled in a way that makes it hard to put him on the ML roster

I agree with this, and IMO he is will be a 28 year old injury prone pitcher making league little to no money, there really is no reason the Twins need to be baby him and have the roster decided by his injury proneness (is that a word?) , it is bad enough they have to carry an extra player(s) for Buxton, if Ober was 4 years younger I could see it, but pitch him like any other pitcher and if he breaks down, next man up, because while his is getting babied Winder, Varland and SWR aren't getting any younger.

miracleb · March 16

Ober will be part of the 5-man rotation. Injury will probably happen in the next two weeks but otherwise Maeda is an obvious choice for the bullpen. I think Maeda is a long way from being "stretched out" to 5+ innings. (maybe safer to not "stretch him out" as well.)

Riverbrian · March 16

Because of the terms set forth in the negotated CBA.

Players with options and less than 5 years experience can be sent to the minors for depth.

You can't store decent depth in the minors that consists of players over 5 years experience. The CBA makes it very difficult to work things that way.

Because of the rules set forth in the CBA. Players that can be sent to the minors... often are.

14 different starters were used in 2022.

If we are stymied by what to do with a 6th starter with options remaining... I'm not sure what to say. The CBA and the frequency of injuries pretty much dictate what you do.

Jeff K · March 16

23 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Ok, let's say there aren't injuries between now and opening day, how would you lay out your pitching rotation?

Here is a thought...

1) Lopez

2) Mahle

3) Ryan

4) Gray

5) Ober

Bullpen

Maeda

Moran

Alcala

Pagan

Thielbar

Jax

Duran

Lopez

This would mover Megill and Cole Sands to AAA, but it lines up ok right? The order of the starting rotation could change, Thoughts?

I think Ober has to start; and I agree that it should be a 5 man rotation especially for April. I would bite the bullet and release Pagan and keep a different reliever.

Trov · March 16

I honestly would not be surprised with a 6 man rotation to start the season. Then if there is injury or poor performance by any of the established guys ahead of Ober, then he may get a shot. I do not expect him to be a long man, they want to have him get starts and try to get innings that way, not through 2 to 3 every few days when there is a blow out one way or other.

chpettit19 · March 16

1 hour ago, miracleb said:

Ober will be part of the 5-man rotation. Injury will probably happen in the next two weeks but otherwise Maeda is an obvious choice for the bullpen. I think Maeda is a long way from being "stretched out" to 5+ innings. (maybe safer to not "stretch him out" as well.)

Why do you think "Maeda is a long way from being stretched out to 5+ innings," but Ober will be part of the 5-man rotation? Ober has thrown 6 innings in 3 spring training games. 2 innings an appearance. Maeda has thrown 5.2 innings in 3 spring training games. Basically 2 innings an appearance. Why is 1 set for the 5-man rotation, but the other is "a long way from being stretched out to 5+ innings?"

miracleb · March 16

Hmmmm....maybe because one had Tommy John surgery and didn't pitch last year and the other was one of the Twins best pitchers last year (on a limited basis.)

Sign In

Could Bailey Ober Still Win A Rotation Spot?

Twins Video

User Feedback

Recommended Comments

Featured Comments

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Join the conversation

Prospect News & Highlights

Recent Topics

Recent Blog Entries