Brian Dozier: Powerful Asset

I think they should still trade him. Polanco won't be as good next year (or quite likely ever for that matter), but he can still be an above average 2B, and 2 years of control vs. 5 or 6 is what is at stake here. They could get a really nice high minors pitching prospect and/or catching prospect for him and still replace him with someone who should be above average at the position.... that and we need more OBP than power.

With his streaky nature and the fact that you have Polanco ready to step in, sell high and trade him for pitching. Starting pitching!!

Number 1 or 2 quality starting pitching. Not prospects.

You have to give up good or great talent to get good or great talent in return. And Dozier is a strength from which the Twins could trade to acquire someone and already has someone to plug in to his spot. Polanco won't ever have his power, but he does have some string in his bat and might develop more. He's also got the ability to hit, get OB, and run quite well. Defensively, the potential is very good. Dozier, or Dozier and another prospect, would seem a prime candidate to bring back a top end SP, relatively young and cost controlled for a few years, that could really stabilize the rotation.

But here's the rub.

He's probably one of the best at his position in baseball. He's only 29, and plays a position where good players can often maintain their skills longer than some others. He's also cost controlled for the next couple of seasons. And even then, should the Twins be inclined to keep him, they will have several contracts coming off the books, and a relatively young and inexpensive roster in place. And he is one of the team'should top power threats and offensive performers.

While the team needs SP help, Berrios, Duffey and the newly acquired Mejia offer real potential, and there are a few top young arms at AA, most notably Gonsalves, that could/should be ready to contribute in a year, perhaps a bit sooner. Unless you truly believe the Twins could contend in 2017, I'm inclined to keep him for next season. At least, begin the season with him. When I look at Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Sano, Polanco and Vargas, I see a team that may not need Dozier a year from now. I'm really torn on this subjecg, but I lean towards keeping him for now as all the prospects develop over the next half to full season.

Luckily Dozier has turned things around after being a replacement player for 11 months. There was a stat mentioned on Gleeman and the Geek which prompts me to be on the sell Dozier now bandwagon. From July 2015 to July 2016, 125-ish games, he was batting around .200 with a replacement level OPS. 

His streaky play is incredibly frustrating, and it's not just a couple of weeks where he's hot or cold. We're talking about entire halves of the season either being red hot or ice cold. 

If Dozier keeps it up the rest of the season, I would think he could be sold at a premium rate this off-season. 

I agree.  He's streaky, which may have more to do with the idea that he has to work a bit harder to adjust than some, or perhaps he's been dealing with more injury (I know this was a case a couple years ago at least)...  I think you take the premium rate, more so b/c he's gone after 2018, and that is really when this team will be a solid contender. May as well get another potential impact piece or two for him.  The question really is how much? 

 Early in the season, I was contemplating whether his career would be more like Dan Uggla or if it would be more like Jeff Kent. I am now leaning to Kent.

Career numbers:

Jeff Kent: .290/.356/.500
Dan Uggla: .241/.336/.447

Brian Dozier: .244/.319/.432

Become Dan Uggla?  He is Dan Uggla practically  

Dozier has highs and lows.  He currently is on a high.  I hope that he does not cool off, so the Twins will sell high on him.   His glove is getting worse and worse and the first month he was horrid with the bat.  If he can bring back a top of the rotation arm this off-season, it will be crazy not to do it.  Got to remember, he has been part of the problem, time to go.

If you want to talk about a true "sell high" player, Brian Dozier is that player.

 

While I'm typically against trading positional talent for pitching, it makes sense in this case.

 

Coming off his 2016 campaign with two remaining years of control, you can set the asking price for Dozier. If you can find a contender with a gap at second and a top 15 pitching prospect in their organization, you kinda have to make that trade.

 

Get a front line starting prospect and let Polanco run with the position. I like Dozier - I like him a lot - but the Twins need starting pitching if they're going to compete. Dozier is their best (only) chance to get that player and with Polanco behind Dozier in the organization, the risk is relatively low.

Top 15 pitching prospect on an org list isn't necessarily cannot miss.  I'd want one, maybe two top 100 over all guys (unless that's what you meant by top 15) and I wouldn't care if that's a catcher or a SP headlining it (though I'd probably want a decent option at the other piece if there's one in the high minors).

Like the Yankees idea.  Sanchez isn't going to be an all star behind the dish, but he should be above average and he's pretty much ML ready and would pair nicely with  Garver. Real issue here is that the Yankee's best pitching prospects are all in Tampa (High A).  Do you take a package that is Sanchez and one of Justus Sheffield/Kaprielian/Acevedo.  I'd pretty happy if we got 2 of those guys... ecstatic if they could get anything else on top of it. 

Career numbers:

 

Jeff Kent: .290/.356/.500
Dan Uggla: .241/.336/.447

 

Brian Dozier: .244/.319/.432

 

Become Dan Uggla?  He is Dan Uggla practically

 

Dozier has highs and lows.  He currently is on a high.  I hope that he does not cool off, so the Twins will sell high on him.   His glove is getting worse and worse and the first month he was horrid with the bat.  If he can bring back a top of the rotation arm this off-season, it will be crazy not to do it.  Got to remember, he has been part of the problem, time to go.

Dozier may not be the best with the glove, but he's better than Uggla ever was...  But yeah, I think sell high makes a ton of sense.

I would consider any of the following:

1. Traded (with other assets if needed) for a very good to great MLB SP who is under 30 and at least 3 years of control left (good luck getting that)

2. Traded (with other assets if needed) for a great minor league SP in AA or AAA and a flyer A guy

3. Traded for a legit CF, who is under 30 with at least 3 years of control left (then trade Buxton for minor league pitching prospects) (I expect this to be met with much derision).

4. Kept on the roster.

That'd be an acceptable approach, though I'd lean toward one high upside guy over a few lower guys. Yeah, any single prospect can fail but with Jay, Stewart, Gonsalves, etc. already in the org and approaching the high minors, I'd go with one top prospect. The Twins already have several upside-but-not-elite guys in the system.

Those 3 pitchers all have decent upside with Sheffield posting the best results.  All are probably 2/3 type guys at their ceiling with a non-zero chance at a #1 starter, but hardly sure things in that aspect.  They are very much in the Jay/Stewart/Gonsalves category, though all are likely top 100 and are thought of a bit higher than our three.  That could certainly be a bit of Yankee bias, but I think the more of those types of guys the better.  

I would consider any of the following:

 

1. Traded (with other assets if needed) for a very good to great MLB SP who is under 30 and at least 3 years of control left (good luck getting that)

2. Traded (with other assets if needed) for a great minor league SP in AA or AAA and a flyer A guy

3. Traded for a legit CF, who is under 30 with at least 3 years of control left (then trade Buxton for minor league pitching prospects) (I expect this to be met with much derision).

4. Kept on the roster.

Of those options, I like 2 the best and it is what I would look for in a trade.  I just think that an established arm would be too expensive.  I also really like the idea of most of the young guys potentially peaking at the same time.  Bringing in an almost ready minor league SP would fit that bill.

 

As far as Dozier being "part of the problem"... uh, what? 

Everyone who has been a core player of the 99+96+96+79+9x teams, should be treated as part of the problem.  If Dozier, Mauer, Plouffe, Suzuki etc are not part of the problem, who is?  The kids?