Blackmon's Deal With Rockies Sets Precedent For Dozier

Interesting. That's a lot of money to pay for a guy who may be on the downswing. Yes, he may be comfortable at Rockies land, so you are, in a sense, rewarding him for what he has done for the team already.

Should the Twins do the same?

A monster start by Dozier means they could get something for him in mid-season, assuming Polanco or Gordon are ready to advance and become the future for the Twins middle-infield, at least until Escobar leaves and Lewis and Company arrive, too.

I conisdered Dozier an almsot more valuable asset to invest in than, say, Joe Mauer. Joe Mauer continues to be the elephant in the room. If you resign Mauer, he plays first or he is the designated hitter. If you sign Dozier for the equivalent of what you might have to pay Mauer on a year-to-year, you get a guy who can still play second next season, probably even beyond. And he could rotate into playing first base, being a designated hitter, and possibly even pick up a third baseman or outfieldes glove in an emergency. Plus he shows the power you want from the designated hitter position going forth, and he could continue to be the Face of the Franchise, so-to-speak, in years 3-5 of a contract.

The question is: How much. Is Dozier worth $100 million? I would say no, but like our Minnesota ownership, I am also cheap. Would Dozier give us five years for $60 million? I bet he'd rather try the free agent marketplace. But then he will be walking away (more than likely) from a qualifying offer and he MIGHT not find takers for three years at $15+ million a year. Or, maybe he will. But the Twins would at least get a compensatory pick...which again, at the tradeline, is probably what they would also get for Brian, unless they would take another free-agent-to-be off the hands of another team (along with a prospect).

I shake my head at the Blackmon deal. That shows that a player needs to strike, when they can, after a big season. The guy is good, but would another team have poney-ied up the same.

Dozier. Dozier. The Twins had the chance to make a longer-range decision on Brian that might've extended him two years beyond today in the off-season before last. They could've dangled something, anything....but not sure what this off-season. 

But, in the end, Dozier would be a fool not to try free agency. Happily he will play hard and, if he stays healthy, will be a benefit for the eam.

Although batting him third and maybe having him hit home runs with men on base would be a nicer choice than all these leadoff dingers!

I just do not see more than a three year deal from the Twins.  At that point Lewis and Javier are here. Along with Polanco and Gordon.  

Would like to see Dozier stay, just do not see the numbers and prospects working.  

I don't think the issue is the AAV so much as the contract length. If Dozier would do 3/75 I think the Twins would do it. But locking him up for 5 years starts to have an impact on the core of youngsters. I hope something happens to keep him here, but I guess I'm not too optimistic it will happen.

2019

1B = Sano

2B = Gordan

SS = Lewis

3B = Dozier

Util = Polanco

Trade Rooker and LOMO for Pitching 

The big difference in this comp as pointed out is CF vs 2b...such different value for elite players.

However Dozier is off to a hot start which he rarely has done so that bodes well for him.

I prefer to  let this all play out because of our depth.  Dozier will get a 5 year deal from someone, maybe...we will see.

If the Twins offered him a 3 year 60 mil deal and he bit I would take it, the problem is he won't bite.  I will be shocked if in the offseason he gets 20+ mil a year though.

Just my thoughts.

Dozier is only going to age into a lumbering 2nd base/ small 1st base/ or lighter bat dh.  He doesn't have anywhere near the arm to play 3rd or a corner outfield spot. 

He could have an late career arc like Ian Kinsler but he could also go the Dan Uggla/ Brett Boone route.

He has been an awesome Twin but I think it would be prudent to not be the team to pay his one big contract. 

I would guess that there are always going to be players who think their value is greater than what it is and use players who play a different position to justify that viewpoint. All it takes is one GM to have a similar opinion.  Dozier will use Blackmon's contract when perhaps Fowler's or Cain's contract at 5/80 would be a better barometer. 

 

 

Honestly, I don't get the Rockies making this deal but that's not unusual; I don't understand loads of things the Rockies do.

There's not enough like buttons in the world for me to demonstrate how much I agree with this statement.

I could see three years, but anything length longer, please no.  Someone will add the 4th and/or the 5th year, do not let is be us. Money would be better spend on front line pitching.

Dozier has been better three of the last four years.... So, ya, you might want to rethink that stance...

Dozier's OPS for the last 3 years = .751 / .886 / .856

Blackmon's OPS for the last 3 years = .797 / .933 / .1000

Plus CF vs 2B

Is the team better in 2018 with Gordon at 2B and an additional 20M to spend on a FA, especially given Santana is gone next year?  It really becomes a bad idea if Lewis sticks at SS. Polanco to 2B, Lewis at SS and 20M to spend on FAs 2019-2022.

I love Dozier but let him go. Take the money coming off the books next year and lock up some of our core. If you get those guys locked up, we have some great additions in the wings. Romero and Gonsalves are close and Graterol is probably not far off either. Thorpe and Mejia add depth and Thorpe is a good candidate to jump up on prospects lists.

Let's maintain the ability to keep the core around instead of spending the money required to keep them on players likely to decline. Let's lock some guys up next year on contract that won't require us to go to age 35 or 36.

It's all going to come down to what kind of a free agent market this offseason turns into. If after the big names like Harper and Machado are gone does it revert to a couple of years ago where vets were getting big deals? Or this past offseason where they couldn't seem to catch a break? I think the team is willing to let him hit the market and circle back around to him once the market has been set on the second-tier guys. Honestly don't think blackmon's deal is going to set much of a precedent for what's going to happen in 7 months.