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    What Does Carlos Correa's Return Mean for the 2023 Twins?


    Nash Walker
    Image courtesy of © Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

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    The long-standing saga is finally over. Was it worth the treacherous, annoying wait? I certainly think so. The Twins have agreed to terms with Carlos Correa in a stunning twist to the craziest free agency story in recent memory. Now onto the baseball: how does Correa impact the 2023 roster?

     

    On the surface, Carlos Correa’s return isn’t an addition. He played 136 games for the Twins in 2022, hitting .291/.366/.467 (140 OPS+) while producing 5.4 b-Wins Above Replacement. Correa lead the team in bWAR and OPS (.834), mostly thanks to a scalding September. 

    While “adding” a player of Correa’s ilk is always exciting, many Twins fans may be understandably more skeptical of his impact on the roster. The Twins won only 78 games last year, with Correa mostly healthy; why should we expect more with a similar group in 2023?

    The Twins collapsed late in the summer, making Correa’s torrid finish a forgotten tale. The fresh memory on many minds is Correa’s inability to hit with runners in scoring position when the Twins needed him all summer. Through July 1st, Correa posted a wRC+ of 85 with runners in scoring position, well below the league average of 106. 

    Naturally, Correa posted a sterling 128 wRC+ with runners in scoring position after July 1st. We’ve learned through study (and this book) that great hitters are great hitters no matter the situation. Correa’s career OPS with runners in scoring position is .818. His career OPS with no men on base? .825. 

    Correa had a tremendous second half in 2022, hitting .304/.380/.486 (149 wRC+) while producing 2.4 f-Wins Above Replacement. Correa was top-10 in the American League in Win Probability Added after the All-Star break. Correa's slower start could be due to a shortened spring training, heightened pressure on a quasi-one-year deal, or simple batted-ball luck. Whatever it was, Correa put it in the rearview after the first half. 

    While it’s understandable to question Correa’s true impact, his .730 OPS with RISP in 2022 is due for positive regression. He should drive in more runs and provide more overall impact at the plate throughout the season. Trust the numbers here, including his highest hard-hit rate since 2017 (44.7%). 

    The concern with his right ankle isn't insignificant. Two teams took the PR hit rather than commit huge money to Correa. Something must be up, right? It's impossible to know for sure. Correa may have a rough time through his 30s... or he may not. In a refreshing change of pace, the Twins are taking the risk. Players of Correa's stature are rarely available to the Twins in free agency. 

    It’s easy to forget the hype surrounding Correa when the Twins signed him last March. We’re honestly talking about a generational shortstop. Through their age-27 seasons, only three shortstops have more bWAR than Correa since the Senators moved to Minnesota: Alex Rodríguez, Robin Yount, and Cal Ripken Jr. 

    Among those shortstops who logged at least 3,500 plate appearances, Correa ranks 3rd in OPS+ behind only A-Rod and Hanley Ramírez. Since 2019, Correa’s 39 Defensive Runs Saved are the most among all shortstops. He’s a unique talent, evidenced by at least two teams offering him over $300 million in contracts this winter. 

    FanGraphs ZiPS projects Correa for 5.6 fWAR in 2023. That’s the highest among Twins and a full 4.2 more than Kyle Farmer. Correa completely changes the outlook of the current roster, especially considering the Twins are much deeper in pitching talent than they were on Opening Day in 2022. 

    The "Absurdly Preliminary 2023 ZiPS Projected Standings" from Dan Szymborski at FanGraphs pegged the Twins for 81 wins before the Correa, Christian Vázquez, and Joey Gallo signings. We can reasonably expect that projected win total to rise at least four notches after these moves. As currently constructed, the Twins look like an 85-86 win team. Add a frontline starter via trade, and that number will approach the desired 90. Correa was a key piece as one of the best free agents available. 

    Beyond his impact on the field, the Twins will welcome Correa, the person, back with open arms. Byron Buxton, José Miranda, and countless other team members spoke highly of their new friend and teammate throughout the 2022 season. Correa’s postseason experience and pedigree - things we lauded him for less than a year ago - are needed more than ever. 

    It’s natural to wonder if the Twins are truly getting *better* with the move to retain their star shortstop. Every season and roster is different, and the Twins are much better today than they were yesterday. Continue to acquire great players, and great things tend to happen. Correa is a great player. 

    Excitement is warranted. 


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    25 minutes ago, strumdatjag said:

    Chris Paddack is also in the mix when he returns from Tommy John surgery sometime during the year.   Still, I would like the Twins to acquire an ace.   The squeamish here will balk at Trevor Bauer, but he has the upside to boost this rotation.  Admit this at least, Twins Daily will be a more interesting place to visit if he is added.  
    Trevor Bauer is nowhere near the number of second chances that the Twins gave to Steve Howe!!!! 

    I'm not totally against the idea but Bauer is not an ace in my eyes.    

    Looks like Lewis may be the right handed outfield bat, along with Martin. Both can spend time as utility infielders also. I still think Lee winds up as the future starting third baseman. i think a couple of infielder prospects, along with a couple of veterans on the team get traded before the season starts.

    21 minutes ago, ashbury said:

    Probably not a good idea to question the motives or mental states of others simply because they disagree with you   

    I don’t think those who oppose signing Trevor Bauer would look at the definition and disagree - A person easily made to feel disgusted, especially by unpleasant images.   It is clear that some (many) here would  be easily disgusted by the image of Trevor Bauer in a Twins uniform.   But he probably fills their biggest remaining need, and at a dirt cheap price.    He has every reason to be on his best behavior (but I understand - Is he capable of controlling himself?).   I would support signing him for the MLB minimum and then DFA if he acts up or is unproductive. 
    There have been athletes with serious, repeated, personal issues who have cleaned up and thrived later in their careers.  Consider Josh Hamilton in baseball, and Jared Allen for our local football team.    This is a risk worth taking, considering the Twins’ shortterm needs - starting pitching and affordability. 

    4 minutes ago, strumdatjag said:

    I don’t think those who oppose signing Trevor Bauer would look at the definition and disagree - A person easily made to feel disgusted, especially by unpleasant images.   It is clear that some (many) here would  be easily disgusted by the image of Trevor Bauer in a Twins uniform.   But he probably fills their biggest remaining need, and at a dirt cheap price.    He has every reason to be on his best behavior (but I understand - Is he capable of controlling himself?).   I would support signing him for the MLB minimum and then DFA if he acts up or is unproductive. 
    There have been athletes with serious, repeated, personal issues who have cleaned up and thrived later in their careers.  Consider Josh Hamilton in baseball, and Jared Allen for our local football team.    This is a risk worth taking, considering the Twins’ shortterm needs - starting pitching and affordability. 

    Bauer has been this for years, over and over, with no remorse. He is who he is. 

    1 hour ago, strumdatjag said:

    Chris Paddack is also in the mix when he returns from Tommy John surgery sometime during the year.   Still, I would like the Twins to acquire an ace.   The squeamish here will balk at Trevor Bauer, but he has the upside to boost this rotation.  Admit this at least, Twins Daily will be a more interesting place to visit if he is added.  
    Trevor Bauer is nowhere near the number of second chances that the Twins gave to Steve Howe!!!! 

    Upside is he could boost the rotation but he could also kill team chemistry. Not worth the risk.

    Looking at the 40 man it would help if they could trade away two Outfielders especially if they view Gordon as more of an outfielder than infielder.  I think the two most valuable outfielders to trade would be Kepler and Larnach.  Kepler because Gallo make him redundant and removing his salary helps offset Correa's and Larnach because Wallner looks very similar except he has a plus arm and Larnach has more trade value. 

    Currently the 40 man has 9 Outfielders on it and generally you want 7 maximum.  Also at the end of this year the Twins will likely need to add Martin, Rodriguez and maybe Urbina which will make the outfield even more crowded.  Not saying they have to trade anyone right away but it would help with 40 man management.  I love Arraez but if moving him gets them something they need they probably should do it but it needs to be the right deal because he could be a big part of the offense this year.

    At any rate the Twins have options and don't need to be in a hurry to trade anyone but they will need to trade some of these players eventually.  There just isn't going to be room for everyone.

    2 hours ago, strumdatjag said:

    Chris Paddack is also in the mix when he returns from Tommy John surgery sometime during the year.   Still, I would like the Twins to acquire an ace.   The squeamish here will balk at Trevor Bauer, but he has the upside to boost this rotation.  Admit this at least, Twins Daily will be a more interesting place to visit if he is added.  
    Trevor Bauer is nowhere near the number of second chances that the Twins gave to Steve Howe!!!! 

    It would not be more interesting, unless you find toxicity interesting , in which case, you’re on the wrong website.

    And it would take truly clueless leadership to throw the goodwill earned from this signing out the window. You’d lose the clubhouse and you’d anger all but a small, and very specific and unfortunately overly vocal demographic of your fan base.

    WOW! I thought this might actually happen until those last minute reports the Mets thought they would work it out. This is a tremendous and completely surprising deal! I expected the deal to be front loaded, but 6yrs and $200M guaranteed was just never expected! And there is control over the last 4yrs for both parties, along with smaller AAV. 

    *Just my opinion, I won't give credit to the FO having this fall in their lap. I DO give them credit for staying in contact and working out a good deal for both sides. I also DO give them credit for chasing him in the first place. Again, my opinion, the Twins initial offer WAS very fair based on the market the past few years. The fact that the market went NUTS this year doesn't, IMO, diminish the fact that they dove in to the deep end this year.

    WHAT DOES CARLOS CORREA'S RETURN MEAN FOR THE 2023 TWINS?

    1] However it turned out, their perception changed simply because they took a plunge in to the deep end, and were winners in the end.

    2] The Twins have one of the best SS in all of MLB, and arguably one of the best players overall. SS is set for 6yrs with a great player.

    3] The defense is better.

    4] The offense is better.

    5] Team leadership remains remains from having him. In his ONE YEAR, he was so invested in the team that he knew all the top milb talent. And he openly stated that if brought back, there were other things he wanted to do to work with the team going forward as a leader.

    6] The infield depth is better now as Farmer becomes a valuable and versatile piece for 2yrs instead of being a solid but not great starting SS. It even puts less pressure on Gordon as the only viable infield utility player on the roster. (No disrespect toward Arraez being able to fill in).

    7] The FUTURE infield, and maybe even OF, depth and versatility improves. Lewis can now take all of his talent to 2B or 3B, or OF, or ALL, and still backup SS. Lee can play 3B, or 2B, and also cover SS. Miranda can cover both infield corners. A healthy AK can play 1B and corner OF. Martin can play across the OF, and possibly still cover 3B and 2B, which he played in college. And I'm not even certain where Julien fits in, but he's a top prospect with the talent to fit in somewhere.

    8] While I don't necessarily want to trade any of our young talent to add elsewhere...I love having a ton of abundant talent available...the truth is the Twins have suddenly gained the ability to do so.

    So yeah, this move changes a LOT!

    NOW, more than ever, the FO can't stop. Go grab Mancini for a RH bat who can play some corner OF and 1B. If the FO has belief in McCutchon, or someone else that's left, FINE. But get a RH bat that the roster needs. Go grab ONE quality RP to INSURE the pen has enough talent and depth. I'd grab Fulmer. But there's a couple really good LH also available. Who do you want? Go get him! I don't know you can get 2, but go grab at least ONE. The best pen you can put together also makes the rotation better. 

    I'm deliberately ignoring a trade for a rotation arm because it's beyond THIS topic point. There's still $ available to add a couple pieces without blowing up payroll. A combination of players and prospects MIGHT allow to make a big trade still. If it's smart. But right now, with Correa back in the fold, you can't just sit back and NOT make a couple more obvious additions.

    Doc Bauer, I couldn't have said it better.  I would just add two possible trades to take another big step forward for this year and several years to come.  Yes, go get a RH bat.  McCutcheon or Mancini would fill the bill at an affordable cost.  Here are the trade options:

    Trade #1  (All values courtesy of Baseball Trade Values).

    Marlins Get:  Arraez 26.6 and Larnach 14.6 for a total of 41.2  Twins Get:  Pablo Lopez 38.7 and Sixto Sanchez 1.6 for a total of 40.3.

    Or, Trade #2"

    Marlins Get:  Polanco 34.8 and Kepler 7.6 for a total value of 42.4.   Twins Get: Pablo Lopez 38.7 and Sixto sanchez 1.6 for a total value of 40.3.

     

    I'm slightly overpaying in each trade because you HAVE TO if you want to add young, talented, controllable pitching.

    In each trade the Marlins get bats and we move one LH hitting outfielder.  The Twins get Lopez, a 26 year old who is capable of throwing 180 innings to lead the rotation and Sixto Sanchez, who just a couple years ago was MLB's #6 overall prospect.  Shoulder issues the last two years have cratered his value but the kid has talent and could be a winning lottery ticket.  And Sanchez is just 24 years old.  The Twins deal bats from a surplus and stockpile two, young, talented arms to an already promising stable of young arms.  

     

    9 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

    This is exactly what I am feeling today. Thanks Herbie.

    It really seems THAT simple to me.  People will say stuff like "can he pitch"?  I wanna smack em.  We have Carlos Correa for at least 6 years.  That...is...all :)

    I am more concerned about Buxton's ability to stay healthy than Correa's ankle.  This guy is a stud and finally the Twins can anchor an infield after a long time waiting for it. We now have an incredible depth of multi-positional players that most of us feel good about. This should allow for some possible trades yet to come. With the addition of a new physical trainer to the team, I'm optimistic that injuries will be reduced and our patchwork ball team will be able to settle in with more consistency. 

    If Maeda can come back strong, our starting pitching should be better. The bullpen should be fine.

    For me, the larger questions are Buxton and our manager's approach.

    Go Twins!

    Twins Geezer...........out.

     


     

    28 minutes ago, William K Johnson said:

    Now we move Farmer to third.   Miranda at first or DH.    It also gives additional time for Lewis to heal and Lee to develop.

    Farmer hits lefties well, and does have some (not much) experience in the OF. I don't know how he did there, but that could be a plus.

    15 hours ago, laloesch said:

    I'd still really like to see them get a front line starter via trade.  Will be very costly, but they have A LOT of young starting prospects as potential trade bait.

    Story just had surgery on his elbow so Boston is looking for 1-2 infielders and/or an outfielder. Maybe boston would trade a SP for Farmer/Kepler/Martin? 

    I am happy with this signing because the contract is much more reasonable than the extreme overpays that occurred this off-season.  
     

    This team still has many holes, but a lot of depth to trade to fill the holes.

    I sense within our current pitching depth we already have one or two front line starters. Between Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Josh Winder, Simeon Woods-Richardson, Louis Varland, and Connor Prielipp I think we can grow with what we have and even move pieces to the bullpen as we did with Duran. 

    We need consistent bats. Plain and simple. Yes we also have talent coming but not quite ready in Austin Martin, Brooks Lee, and Royce Lewis to name a few, but where are the true hitters that do the little things like get on base through a wall or take the ball the other way? We have too much swinging for the fences with Kepler, Polonco, Kiriloff and even Buxton.  If we have hitters batting under .250 with an on base percentage hovering around .300.  We won’t do well against front line starters.  Shifts are gone, but when infields are deep why not drop a bunt as Puckett used to do? Puckett got on base in front of the mashers and then the infielders would have to play closer where Puckett could mash better.  This is missing from this team. Here is to hoping we can get more professional hitters with our depth by trading until the help in our system arrives. I think Gallo is more of what we don’t need.  

    15 hours ago, strumdatjag said:

    I don’t think those who oppose signing Trevor Bauer would look at the definition and disagree - A person easily made to feel disgusted, especially by unpleasant images.   It is clear that some (many) here would  be easily disgusted by the image of Trevor Bauer in a Twins uniform.   But he probably fills their biggest remaining need, and at a dirt cheap price.    He has every reason to be on his best behavior (but I understand - Is he capable of controlling himself?).   I would support signing him for the MLB minimum and then DFA if he acts up or is unproductive. 
    There have been athletes with serious, repeated, personal issues who have cleaned up and thrived later in their careers.  Consider Josh Hamilton in baseball, and Jared Allen for our local football team.    This is a risk worth taking, considering the Twins’ shortterm needs - starting pitching and affordability. 

    I disagree on signing Bauer. He would be a negative distraction for all.

    15 hours ago, strumdatjag said:

    I don’t think those who oppose signing Trevor Bauer would look at the definition and disagree - A person easily made to feel disgusted, especially by unpleasant images.   It is clear that some (many) here would  be easily disgusted by the image of Trevor Bauer in a Twins uniform.   But he probably fills their biggest remaining need, and at a dirt cheap price.    He has every reason to be on his best behavior (but I understand - Is he capable of controlling himself?).   I would support signing him for the MLB minimum and then DFA if he acts up or is unproductive. 
    There have been athletes with serious, repeated, personal issues who have cleaned up and thrived later in their careers.  Consider Josh Hamilton in baseball, and Jared Allen for our local football team.    This is a risk worth taking, considering the Twins’ shortterm needs - starting pitching and affordability. 

     Jared Allen is not the same as Trevor Bauer.  Jared Allen was/is extremely well liked in the community and in the locker room.  Jared Allen made some dumb mistakes with alcohol and drinking and driving when he was young.  He figured it out by the start of his 3rd NFL season and it was never an issue again.  When the Vikings took their "chance on him" he was 2 or 3 years removed from any of those issues and had matured a lot by then.  

     

    Are the Twins better on January 10 than they were on January 9 due to Correa signing?  Of course not.  The Twins only won 78 games with him with the team all year.  Injuries, yes we had a ton of them.  But let's be honest here.  Most of the debilitating injuries came very late in the season.  So let's not blame the whole season on injuries.  I'm glad Correa is finally ( hopefully) signed and shortstop will be a solid secure position for the Twins for at least the next 6 years.  He's a very good player but relying on injured players to come back health AND have good career years is a huge risk.  If the returning players are good and productive we have a good chance of competing.  If the teams performance the last two years continues in 2023 continues, a 33 million shortstop will have done little good.  While Correa signing is good, it alone doesn't make us a contender.  If more solid moves are not made we can expect another season of mud 70s in wins.  Not even the great Carlos Correa can win it on his own.  I'm really hoping that another move or so is coming in support of Correa.  Go Twins!!!

    42 minutes ago, Loosey said:

     Jared Allen is not the same as Trevor Bauer.  Jared Allen was/is extremely well liked in the community and in the locker room.  Jared Allen made some dumb mistakes with alcohol and drinking and driving when he was young.  He figured it out by the start of his 3rd NFL season and it was never an issue again.  When the Vikings took their "chance on him" he was 2 or 3 years removed from any of those issues and had matured a lot by then.  

     

    OK - I have another example of taking a chance on someone who many MLB teams would not - Carlos Correa.  There has been little discussion here in recent days about how the fan base of many other teams would not accept Carlos Correa., because of the cheating during his days with the Astros.   Those teams (including the Dodgers) were not in a bidding war for CC.   With Pete Rose as a precedent, the standard rule has been that bad conduct affecting the game baseball directly is viewed more harshly. 
    I support signing CC to THIS contract, but Twins fans shouldn’t pat themselves on the back for high morals standards and virtue here either.  

    4 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

    Are the Twins better on January 10 than they were on January 9 due to Correa signing?  Of course not.  The Twins only won 78 games with him with the team all year.  Injuries, yes we had a ton of them.  But let's be honest here.  Most of the debilitating injuries came very late in the season.  So let's not blame the whole season on injuries.  I'm glad Correa is finally ( hopefully) signed and shortstop will be a solid secure position for the Twins for at least the next 6 years.  He's a very good player but relying on injured players to come back health AND have good career years is a huge risk.  If the returning players are good and productive we have a good chance of competing.  If the teams performance the last two years continues in 2023 continues, a 33 million shortstop will have done little good.  While Correa signing is good, it alone doesn't make us a contender.  If more solid moves are not made we can expect another season of mud 70s in wins.  Not even the great Carlos Correa can win it on his own.  I'm really hoping that another move or so is coming in support of Correa.  Go Twins!!!

    We are not the same team now as Jan 9th just as we are not the same team when Buxton is injured. We are definitely fighting for 1st place in the central when they are in the lineup every day. All the youngsters are going to benefit from C4 being in the clubhouse for the next 6-10 years. We got waaaay better in wins and as a whole organization on Jan 10th. 

    On 1/10/2023 at 1:56 PM, raindog said:

    Acquire McCutchen or someone similar  and they’ll have an awesome lineup against LHP. 

    C Vázquez

    1B Miranda

    2B Polanco 

    SS Correa

    3B Farmer

    LF McCutchen/Garlick/random vet

    CF Buxton

    RF Gallo

    DH, I’m not sure. Could put Celestino in LF and McCutchen at DH. Or one of the lefties. Or Arraez but I like giving his knees a rest against LHP. 

    How about your line-up with Jeffers catching……..Vázquez at DH……….Garlick in LF…….McCutchen in RF!!!

    4 hours ago, Fatbat said:

    We are not the same team now as Jan 9th just as we are not the same team when Buxton is injured. We are definitely fighting for 1st place in the central when they are in the lineup every day. All the youngsters are going to benefit from C4 being in the clubhouse for the next 6-10 years. We got waaaay better in wins and as a whole organization on Jan 10th. 

    We are better on 1/10/23 with CC. than w/o him on 9th. We were way better 1/9/23 than last year! Not because he’s going to guide our young guys in clubhouse or because he’s going to carry our offense, With Farmer able to add depth at 3 IF positions - huge plus!!

    No Joe Smith - Duffey blowing saves……hopefully, no Pagan. This is a probable 10-14 more wins……can’t emphasize current Pen enough.

    Potentially, a healthy Mahle - Ober - Maeda with experienced Varland - Megill -,Moran -,Jax. All worth wins.

    No Bundy - No Archer!!!

    Vazquez is an upgrade as well.

    Could use A. McCutchen & more importantly a FA reliever!

     

    BIG. CHANGES!

    Interesting fact: Joey Gallo is also from the same draft as Correa and Buxton, 39th overall in 2012.

    Career WAR from that draft: Correa is first at 39.5, Buxton is 4th at 20.2, and Gallo 9th at 14.7.

     

    Old friend JO Berrios is 12th at 10.8

    13 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

    Are the Twins better on January 10 than they were on January 9 due to Correa signing?  Of course not.  The Twins only won 78 games with him with the team all year.  Injuries, yes we had a ton of them.  But let's be honest here.  Most of the debilitating injuries came very late in the season.  So let's not blame the whole season on injuries.  I'm glad Correa is finally ( hopefully) signed and shortstop will be a solid secure position for the Twins for at least the next 6 years.  He's a very good player but relying on injured players to come back health AND have good career years is a huge risk.  If the returning players are good and productive we have a good chance of competing.  If the teams performance the last two years continues in 2023 continues, a 33 million shortstop will have done little good.  While Correa signing is good, it alone doesn't make us a contender.  If more solid moves are not made we can expect another season of mud 70s in wins.  Not even the great Carlos Correa can win it on his own.  I'm really hoping that another move or so is coming in support of Correa.  Go Twins!!!

    Correa is just a player - one piece!

    We had 2nd or 3rd most blown saves in league. Joe Smith & Duffey are gone. Hopefully, Pagan will be gone. Opportunity to reduce 27 blown saves to say, 12. That’s 90 wins in ‘23 right there.

    We had Jake Cave & Gilberto Celestino as two of our outfielders for weeks. Both played hard - decent guys - not MLB caliber starters and barely reasonable for high end AAA. Larnach - Kirilof - Kepler - Buxton - Garlick……..ALL HURT in ‘22.

    Kepler missed more than a month. Polanco missed more than a month. Buxton missed two months. This was our offensive core entering 2022.

    Our catchers couldn’t hit to save their lives. We signed Vazquez. 

    Farmer is now a depth piece - former starting SS!! Now that CC is in place, Lewis can work out at 3rd & 2nd. Same with Lee.

    If we add a Starting Pitcher via trade ……..Kepler-Pagan-Celestino-Prospect (bumps Maeda to Pen) and sign a FA reliever we’re golden.

    McCutchen is an affordable RH option as an outfielder that could help against LHP…….also, a good defensive reserve.




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