Still No Clarity On Potential Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco Trades

The Twins are always listening on any and all trade offers. I'm skeptical that the Twins are hoping to trade Polanco and Kepler to save money. They are hoping to turn these guys who will soon be gone into players who will be around and feel like they can be covered by others if the return is decent; a win-win situation. 

Vazquez will be difficult to trade for a reasonable return and the money saved will be used to bring in an inferior player unless the Twins manage a major trade that includes a catcher coming back. Farmer makes sense as a utility player for the Twins still but we should expect him to be traded for a minor league kid with some hope for the future or as the tail end of a package of players in a bigger trade.

There has been a constant chorus of comments that suggest trading Polanco and Kepler to free up money in order to sign a free agent pitcher. I would be flabbergasted if that happened. It does make sense to probe the market in order to obtain value for any of the Twins players. It makes even more sense if those players are not likely to be a part of the team 2-3 years. 

Polanco has two more years and Max has one under contract. Neither can return a player who will help in 2024 by themselves. Either can be part of a larger trade to bring in a player that is impactful for 2024.

A much bigger decision, one that can be deferred easily, is how the Twins see using three young players for two positions. Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee are really third basemen, unless you believe that Carlos Correa will move to first base soon. Julien is rough but pretty much the most likely guy to work out at second base until someone else comes along. Nobody wants to see any of these three leave and I agree, yet it is these three whose names emit from the lips of GMs who seek transactions with the Twins.

Expect more silence.

I had thought that the Twins would match up with the Red Sox because the Sox have no useful second baseman on their roster.  There have been Merrifield rumors, but I have yet to see anything on Polanco.  I did make a comment on the Red Sox page of The Athletic and Jen McCaffrey commented that the Sox are looking for a good defender.  To my eyes it looks like Polanco fits the bill, but she stated that his analytics have him as below average.  I'm guessing that this may be contributing to the lack of activity at this point.

I agree with the FO that our solution to our needs is the trade market. Yet anyone that thinks that any team that needs Kepler or Polanco will offer us anything more than a bunch of worthless players & poor lotto tickets will be IMO very disappointed. We won't get anything close to what they are worth to us! Vazquez is worse where we'll have to pay someone to take him & then pay for a far inferior substitute. Farmer is a valuable quality INF piece.

Our main need is a frontline SP. Seatle is no longer an option, do we really want to go down that Burns or Cease route? Kepler & or Polanco will not land us a frontline SP, IMO MIA is the best route and IMO it's best to make a reasonable trade before Yamamoto signs & avoid the feeding fenzy that'll follow. After the dust settles following our frontline SP trade can we fully evaluate our situation & what we can do.

Was tendering Farmer a mistake? I thought they could find a team to pay his salary and give them a low level prospect. With several stop gap middle infield options on the market I am not sure he can be moved. The Twins might have been better off putting his salary towards pitching.

The Lourdes Gurriel contract (3 years $42M) is another read on Max Kepler's market value. If he's worth $14M a season and getting paid $10M he doesn't have a whole lot of excess trade value. It is also another data point that Kepler is unlikely to get a $22M qualifying offer next winter.

14 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Was tendering Farmer a mistake? I thought they could find a team to pay his salary and give them a low level prospect. With several stop gap middle infield options on the market I am not sure he can be moved. The Twins might have been better off putting his salary towards pitching.

Farmer would get snapped up on waivers.

I don't think tendering Farmer was a mistake.  He's still a decent SS and hits lefties pretty well.  His versatility around the IF gives him value.  There are still teams looking for a SS so a trade is very likely to me.  The fact the Twins haven't made a move of any kind yet is very consistent with the Twins M.O.  I don't think anything happens until there are a few more big moves that sharpen the market parameters (Yamamoto and Snell signing, Bellinger signing) and the Twins don't sit down at the table until early 2024.  

I agree with the sentiment that our #1 priority is a frontline SP.  Getting that guy who could be our #2 could be accomplished either by trade or FA.  But the kind of guy we can get varies depending on which route you take.  A veteran FA like Giolito or Bauer is the type of pitcher you could slot at #2.  But they're not jumping at a Twins offer of $15 million per year until some big pitching dominos fall.  

A trade is more likely to involve a Miller/Woo from Seattle or a Trevor Rogers from Miami level pitcher than a Corbin Burnes, Jesus Luzardo, or Logan Gilbert level trade.  Miller, Woo or Rogers while talented, haven't done enough to be considered better than Joe Ryan to this point, so any deals involving them would slot them BEHIND Ryan in the rotation.  

Last season improved Kepler's value and lessened Polanco's somewhat.  I think we're all correct in assuming that we're not getting Jesus Luzardo for Kepler and Polanco.  Maybe Trevor Rogers, but then you're banking on the 2021 version of Rogers, not the 2022-2023 version.  That's the tough position the Twins find themselves in.  If they wait too long in FA they won't get a pitcher who will come close to what they need.  They would then be squeezed into a position of having to give up more than they would like via trade to get the right pitcher.

The veteran SP brings a track record.  The trade SP brings potential.  At this point, I would expect teams are low-balling the Twins for Kepler and Polanco.  I'm willing to trade Polanco for prospects or Garrett Mitchell from the Brewers.  To me, Julien is playing 2B and hitting at the top of the order every day.  And Brooks Lee either breaks camp with the Twins or joins shortly thereafter possibly moving Julien to 1B.  Kepler on the other hand, I'm not selling low on.  I have no problem having him on the Twins for all of 2024.  If last year wasn't a mirage he will be a valuable player for the Twins to have in 2024 and we're one year closer to Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins.   

It's too bad the Guardians are a division rival.  They need offense, which we could deal them, and they have SP, which we need.  Here's a list of Cleveland's SP and their BBTV:

Logan Allen  28.4  25 yo.  Shane Bieber  5.6  29 yo.  Tristen McKenzie  45.3  27 yo.  Gavin Williams  46.1  24 yo.  Tanner Bibee  42.6  24 yo.  Daniel Espino  16.2  22 yo.  The obvious target for me is Logan Allen.  He's the most affordable and he's 25 years old.  The Guardians are probably going to trade Bieber.  I think I'd be willing to trade Polanco for Bieber even up. 

We'd be overpaying slightly, but Cleveland would slide Gimenez to SS (they did last year after trading Rosario) and Polanco becomes they're everyday 2B.  The Twins would slot the 29 yo Bieber in at #2 behind Lopez and leave Ryan and Ober at #3 & #4.  The Twins could decide mid-season if they would like to offer an extension to Bieber if things are working out.  He's only 29.  He's the veteran SP that compares to Giolito/Bauer without the immediate outlay of money.  

Here is a downer of a realistic trade.  Polanco to Milwaukee for Adrian Houser and a prospect.  Houser has 1 year till free agency and has ok numbers.  Can our coaches help add a few ticks to his fastball?  A sweeper?  We get a starter to add to with no long term commitments and a prospect to add to the system.  Milwaukee gets help at their black hole at 2B and an option to do that again in 2025.  
 

We could alter this deal and make it Farmer and a prospect or Sands or Winder for Houser as well.  There could be a few ways to make this deal.  

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Sorry, not interested in Houser. Too much contract, too few years and he still slots in behind Ryan and Ober, not ahead of them. 

If they're not going to get BETTER pitching, I'd rather they just stock up St. Paul with more junkballers like Sanchez and Keuchel on MiLB deals for their 'depth'.

I thought the Twins were only interested in a 1 year deal.  Next year is going to be more expensive then this year and we should still have 5 options with several minor leaguers knocking on the door. I want a better pitcher then Hauser too but the deal fits what the front office is doing.  

8 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

It’s been pretty widely discussed here that Lee’s tools translate at 3B better than Lewis. CC isn’t going anywhere as you state. Seems Lewis at 2B to replace an inferior defender makes sense. I don’t see any transition though until they get a longer look at Lee in St Paul & a longer look at Julien in the Show. Maybe late summer?

Seems it’s either Lewis to 2B by start of ‘25 or he shifts to LF & Wallner goes to RF.

I don’t think trying to trade Polanco as a stand alone asset is going to bring a great return but him, with Winder, and a good prospect from AAA level may do the trick. Club needs pitching & money to allow that to happen. Gotta move Jorge…………or trade Julien in his spot and get a lower cost arm in trade…….no sense in having these two guys on the roster together other than to hedge against Polanco’s fragile physical state & probable injury.

I don't think the Twins will ever move Lewis to 2B. Why would you put a guy that has had 2 knee surgeries on 2B and need to make a pivot. I think that would be asking for trouble.

2 hours ago, twinsfansd said:

I don't think the Twins will ever move Lewis to 2B. Why would you put a guy that has had 2 knee surgeries on 2B and need to make a pivot. I think that would be asking for trouble.

This has been mol what I have been saying in all of the move RL here or there discussions. Lewis can improve at third base. It is the position he has always been most comfortable playing. He was a 3B in high school and the Twins tried to make him a shortstop and then a brief trial in CF. I don't see him as anywhere but as a corner infielder. Then, it is back to where Brooks Lee plays. The decision impacts potential trades and any addition of either Polanco or Kepler in a package deal.

9 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Agree with your thought that he hit lefties well and he's versatile, which gives him value. BUT, is there another team that wants Kyle Farmer to be their starting shortstop in 2024? I really don't think so. If you think you have a chance to contend you want someone better and if you don't think you'll contend you want someone younger and cheaper. 

Kyle Farmer falls into the hole of being too old and expensive for the role that he is best suited. How many teams can afford a $6.3M utility infielder? I have maintained all off season that Farmer's role would be diminished on the 2024 Twins because the team will have other, equally good options to be the backup shortstop Add in that he'll turn 34 and that he is an average runner at best and there are enough reasons to peg him as a backup and utility player.

The flip side of this is that he is a positive force in the clubhouse and has a history of hitting left handed pitching--two things that make him valuable to the Twins. I'm just not sure if the positives outweigh the negatives for Farmer.

Don't forget that he got hit in the face with a fastball early last season.  It did quite a bit of damage both physically and mentally.  He was eventually able to shake it off, but it did bring his numbers down.  The guy's a tough competitor and he brings that elusive "grit" to the team.  Of course, it's hard, if not impossible, to measure grit; there are no metrics for it.  But if we lose Farmer, I think we'd lose a lot more than statistics can suggest.