Twins Deadline Will Determine Depth of Failure

It depends on what you can get as far as close to major league ready talent.  As stated only Buxton, Berrios, and rogers can bring more than a minimal amount of talent back or lottery tickets.  

Buxton being injured will be selling low and probably has to wait until the offseason or sign and extension.  Berrios they should already know what he wants for an extension and if they are not going to sign him, he must be traded for the biggest haul in the next two weeks. 

Rogers depends on the return, if it will help next year trade him.  Twins need to open spots and see what the young pitchers have.  Then you can act on next year.

Buxton isn't worth the move at the moment, but I don't mind moving him in the off season.  Career .247 hitter and lucky/unlucky injury upon injury doesn't give me the warm and fuzzy he can last 100 games per year.  I can't justify $20MM a year for 60% game action.  Rogers would be interesting move to bring something in return that is close to be ready, what that would be, not my job.  Could you get a SS on the rise, SP or RP to make us for a 2 for 1 deal? Maybe.  Berrios is the prize but is he a true ace on a staff?  This year yes on Twins, but other contenders he would most likely be a solid #2 or #3 rotation guy, maybe #4 depending on the staff.  So his haul in return fluctuates on perception and trade partner.  Here I would demand back in return 4 for 1 deal:  SS, SP, SP & RP.  3 out of the 4 top 100 prospects from said team we partner with and 2 have to be in top 20 in their system.  

43 minutes ago, umterp23 said:

Buxton isn't worth the move at the moment, but I don't mind moving him in the off season.  Career .247 hitter and lucky/unlucky injury upon injury doesn't give me the warm and fuzzy he can last 100 games per year.  I can't justify $20MM a year for 60% game action.  Rogers would be interesting move to bring something in return that is close to be ready, what that would be, not my job.  Could you get a SS on the rise, SP or RP to make us for a 2 for 1 deal? Maybe.  Berrios is the prize but is he a true ace on a staff?  This year yes on Twins, but other contenders he would most likely be a solid #2 or #3 rotation guy, maybe #4 depending on the staff.  So his haul in return fluctuates on perception and trade partner.  Here I would demand back in return 4 for 1 deal:  SS, SP, SP & RP.  3 out of the 4 top 100 prospects from said team we partner with and 2 have to be in top 20 in their system.  

You are only likely to get one top 100 prospect for Berrios.  And you had better be right.  Problem is a couple of them are injured (Pearson) or ineffective (Gore).  There may be others, but you have the pick the right one.  San Diego and Toronto are the only 2 (Dodgers will not) maybe trade a high level pitching prospect in return.  Do not think the Giants have one that close.  Rogers may get you a decent prospect, but not likely to be a pitcher, not many clubs will move a pitcher close to the majors.  We shall see.  If I took a lower level prospect, I had better be right

"Lockdown Arm"? Huh? Who evaluated that term- Falvey? Even Taylors outs are hard hit.

Dynamic Duo needs to stop with the "Hope we can get Pitchers off the scrap heap" routine and get an Authentic Pitcher to help Berrios! They act like Vikes saving money on the O-Line! Results prove being stingy won't get you to or deep into playoffs. But since Club is profitable winning comes 2nd.

Excellent comments by all and a well written article.  Great insight into Buxton.  I've said all along he's a great defensive center fielder.  However his .247 career batting average in 7 seasons is not so great.  He's only played in more than 100 games only once.  He had a great month in April of this year and everyone calls him a superstar.  He cannot and should not be given a multi-year contract until he proves he can stay on the field and be consistently productive!!

Anyone have a list of pending FA SPs for 2022?

2 hours ago, NapoleonComplex said:

Based on our offensive numbers against the rest of the league, we should keep the band together.

Twins rank in the top 10 in BA, OPS, and HR, top 15 in nearly every other offensive category - 21st in SO though, which surprised me. The team has hit very well considering all the young guys we've had to play due to injuries and other circumstances.

This season is once again a result not investing into quality pitching. We try too hard to fill our rotation and BP with bounce-back candidates or possible diamonds in the rough.

My thought is to work hard to extend Berrios and Buxton. We won't get enough in return (IMO) to make it worthwhile. Invest heavily into quality FA arms in the off-season. Overpay if we have to, it's just money (easy for me to say). We are a much better team than our record reflects at the moment. I see no reason to sell now. If we're in the same position one year from now, become sellers then.

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

Excellent comments by all and a well written article.  Great insight into Buxton.  I've said all along he's a great defensive center fielder.  However his .247 career batting average in 7 seasons is not so great.  He's only played in more than 100 games only once.  He had a great month in April of this year and everyone calls him a superstar.  He cannot and should not be given a multi-year contract until he proves he can stay on the field and be consistently productive!!

I really think you have to almost throw out the first five years. For whatever reason it just took Buxton a longer time to develop his hitting. Because of injuries it is a SSS but he appears to have it finally put it together. Trading him now would be selling very low. If the owners statement is true that they have the money to sign Buxton and Berrios, then do it and move on. If he continues to get hurt he is still worth more than Donaldson IMO.

It’s a tough call. I think Berrios is going to test FA no matter what from the sounds of where extension talks have run. So I think the twins will have to massively overpay him for an extension. If that’s the case you ask one question. If Pearson or Gore are on the table would you prefer 6-7 years of either one of them? Or would you like 6-8 years of Berrios at $25-$30M? Also, if we take the latter we’re talking about a smaller pitcher who’s never really had an ACE season venturing into his 30’s at the back end of that contract. Personally I’d take my chances on trying to overachieve next year with an eye toward 2023 and beyond with what hopefully amounts to a stud pitcher rather than holding the bag after 2022 and hoping to stay competitive past that. If we sell high on these guys now and get back some really good pieces there’s no reason we can’t surprise teams next year and have a really solid team going forward. There’s pieces in place. This team is not like the ‘11-‘15 clubs that were destined for 100 losses every year. This is a crossroads for sure!

With a solid pitching staff......this team would be up there with the White Sox. That has been illustrated enough on this site...so I'll skip that.

So....it is being suggested they need to trade Berrios, Buxton, and Rogers because the pitching wasn't upgraded properly??? WTF??? Sounds like an excuse to go cheap [yet again].....and call it a rebuild. 

Great take with this article!

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Great infrastructure?

Which league average pitcher, reliever or starter, have they developed?

We don't have much at the major league level to show for the pitching development infrastructure that Falvey and Levine and put in place yet, but we do have more legitimate pitching prospects in A+ or higher this year than TR had in all of his last ten years combined. It's really easy, I think, to forget how absolutely pathetic our pitcher development program was before Falvey and Levine showed up, and how very little they had to work with on day one from a coaching and tooling perspective. We have to remember to play the long game with our pitching pipeline.

If you ask this question again this time next year, I think it's pretty likely that we'll be able to point to at least several of Winder, Alcala, Duran, Barnes, Sands, Balazovic, Ober, Jax, and Colina. If Canterino comes back relatively soon, or if Enlow's return from TJS goes according to plan, we'll probably be able to point to them as headed toward league average or better in the near future, too. Perhaps Hajjer and/or Macleod (assuming they both sign), as well.

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I think this is a situation of both sides being right. They haven't developed a difference making pitcher yet (for the record Dobnak has been basically a league average pitcher they signed and developed). But they have a quite enviable stable of prospects on the cusp of the bigs, with a few of the low end prospects having debuted or set to debut tomorrow. And they've only been here 4 years. Year 1 is a lot of assessing and planning. Years 2 and 3 were about accumulating talent and beginning their march to the bigs. Year 4 had the minor league world go dark. Not a total excuse for things, but certainly isn't nothing. And now Year 5 is starting to see guys arrive. That's a pretty reasonable timeline I'd think. But the question of whether or not the guys arriving will succeed is still legit. So they've developed a more than solid MiLB prospects, but all they are are prospects until they prove themselves in the bigs. I think the next year will be the deciding time.

Exactly!!! Let’s remember what was In place before the Falvine era. Terry Ryan and a bunch of guys still flying off the late 80’s and early 90’s way of doing things as the league was undergoing a massive shift. I remember a quote from a front office guy from another team saying the twins were far behind in the analytics/modern way of baseball scouting and development. It showed!!! I’m surprised they’ve changed the culture as fast as they have. I think we forget how bad the twenty teens were. A Pohlad fired a Ryan and a Gardenhire. Guys who were immortals in the day. 

What happened to Morneau and Mauer had more to do with that than analytics.

11 hours ago, RonCoomersOPS said:

We don't have much at the major league level to show for the pitching development infrastructure that Falvey and Levine and put in place yet, but we do have more legitimate pitching prospects in A+ or higher this year than TR had in all of his last ten years combined. It's really easy, I think, to forget how absolutely pathetic our pitcher development program was before Falvey and Levine showed up, and how very little they had to work with on day one from a coaching and tooling perspective. We have to remember to play the long game with our pitching pipeline.

If you ask this question again this time next year, I think it's pretty likely that we'll be able to point to at least several of Winder, Alcala, Duran, Barnes, Sands, Balazovic, Ober, Jax, and Colina. If Canterino comes back relatively soon, or if Enlow's return from TJS goes according to plan, we'll probably be able to point to them as headed toward league average or better in the near future, too. Perhaps Hajjer and/or Macleod (assuming they both sign), as well.

2014. Kohl Stewart was a hot prospect along with Alex Meyer and Berrios, Thorpe, May, and Felix Jorge were well thought of, also Gonsalves, Tonkin, Eades, Fernando Romero, Melotakis and another name that escapes me also had buzz about them. I di believe Graterol was still a signed 16 year old then. Any year you want you can throw out 12 names. A couple will make it. 

I do feel they have 8 - 10 possibilities for starting pitchers in the Twins system (somewhat close).  Of these 2 or 3 will maybe make it, but we don't know to what degree they will preform at.  

In some ways I admire the support on Twins Daily for our Falvine/Baldelli leadership, but I do not understand it. Ryan, Smith, Gardenhire, and Molitor were all much more experienced and the Twins won against some tough Detroit, Cleveland, and Chicago teams. The Twins had lower payrolls and competed for a decade before a confluence of difficult injuries and failed prospects cost them. When a change was made it was natural and I was happy to see the Twins win the AL Central in 2019 and 2020 but it was against very poor teams in their division. The Twins had some clear opportunities to make favorable deals after 2019 and made a decision to stand pat with players who struggle with their gloves and now are fighting contact with the bats too. Nevertheless, I do agree that the current management needs another year to make their case as capable in their jobs. 2021 has been a tough year with so many problems. It does feel to some extent like the 1964 team, which was a considerable letdown from the previous season. I'm hopeful for a bounce back in 2022. Moving Buxton, Berrios, and Rogers would create significant holes, yet any superior offer does need to be mulled over by the braintrust. I would argue that the Twins have enough minor league depth and we can accept risks for Simmons and others, but not for our top players.

On 7/15/2021 at 11:14 AM, TNTwinsFan said:

Anyone have a list of pending FA SPs for 2022?

 

MLB Trade Rumors has a list they update though it hasn’t been in a week or so. 
 

Names I remember: Scherzer, Kershaw, Gausman, Stroman, Ray, Rodon, Wood, Hill. There are probably close to 10 names I wouldn’t mind the Twins signing when it’s usually just 2-3 any other offseason 

On 7/15/2021 at 2:08 PM, Mike Sixel said:

I'm curious, do you think anyone here wants them to be cheap? Or, maybe, some here think the Twins and some of those players won't come to an agreement, so they should deal them and get something in return? 

If I had to guess, 100% of the people here would rather they find a way to sign Buxton, Berrios, and Rogers, and another FA SP, and another SS and a RP or two......but that a good number think that isn't realistic at all. 

Ok....it was poorly written. Let me try this again. The hell with it....tired of social media. Think what you ****ing want. Good night