Article: Early Signs Point to Unprecedented Aggressiveness

[Nick Nelson]

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php/2500-Early-Signs-Point-to-Unprecedented-Aggressiveness

[clutterheart]

Empty rhetoric? Perhaps. It wouldn't be the first time. But there are numerous signals indicating that this organization is feeling a far greater sense of urgency than is typical, and that provides some real reason for hope.

 

After reading the latest from Wolfson at 1500 I am thinking it might be empty rhetoric. It has some pessimistic indicators. Hopefully they are just playing games with agents.

[dwintheiser]

Given Parker's story about the Twins already making an offer to Mike Pelfrey (and that offer not being high enough), I'm going to withhold any enthusiasm for a 'big free agent signing'.

[jharaldson]

When reading some of the linked materials from your article I actually get less sure of the Twins actual commitment. In Doogie's article the Twins are breaking their word on giving up a draft pick for a decent signing:

 

The Twins have told agents that they don't plan on sacrificing their second-round pick in June's amateur draft to sign a free agent, despite a public declaration stating otherwise. In other words, starters Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez aren't in the Twins' plans. In fact, Santana's representatives already have meetings set up with teams in Orlando. The Twins, as of Tuesday morning, are not on that list.

 

In reading the Pohlad article the feeling I got is that Jim Pohlad has committed to not actively inhibiting Ryan from signing players:

 

We have a lot of prospects, but most aren’t quite ready. We don’t have a lot of trading inventory. We have to go into the marketplace. Terry knows that. I’m not encouraging him to wait.

 

I think there is a big difference in "I'm not encouraging him to wait" and actually saying something like "I have encouraged him to be aggressive on both money and years."

[Nick Nelson]

Given Parker's story about the Twins already making an offer to Mike Pelfrey (and that offer not being high enough), I'm going to withhold any enthusiasm for a 'big free agent signing'.

 

Understandable, and I thought about mentioning it, but I just can't put a ton of stock into rumors coming from Heyman regarding Boras clients.

[Smcginnity]

Anything less than two decent FA signings, I will be disappointed. I bet they sign 1 less than decent pitcher (Pelfrey) and then get a bunch off the trash pile after that. They do this every year and it is so old at this point. What they should do is go hard after Garza and probably an Arroyo/Kazmir type. But, I don't see it happening. It will be a bunch more rhetoric that leads to the aforementioned pathetic FA signings.

[SDFan]

I thought McCann went to the Yankees?

[darin617]

Twins aggressive in off season? I hate to say you have to prove me wrong before I start drinking the kool aid. Just because they are talking to agents means absolutely nothing until they pull the trigger on a deal. The agents probably have not laughed so hard when they finish a meeting with the Twins people.

[MichiganTwins]

SDFan, he did sign with the Yankees

[Mike Sixel]

Early signs point to rumors of stuff maybe happening, but just as it is too early to say they'll do nothing, it seems a bit early to get confident, doesn't it?

[DaveW]

The agents probably have not laughed so hard when they finish a meeting with the Twins people.

It will be a bunch more rhetoric that leads to the aforementioned pathetic FA signings.

 

 

 

This forum is quickly becoming unreadable, Nick offers a reasonable and well thought out opinion and everyone has to rush in with the same old, tired, "Dohhh the Twins won't do anything, Ryan should be fired, derp" rhetoric that has been non stop. We get it, nobody likes coming off of three bad seasons, making thread after thread and post after post about how the Twins won't do anything, are a laughing stock etc does nothing to expand the conversation and frankly will do nothing but drive away anyone who would actually like to have a discussion about the Twins.

 

It was this sort of daily garbage that kept me off the forums the majority of the second half of the season, and I know I wasn't the only one. This isn't directed at this thread as it hasn't gotten out of hand...yet.

[Mike Sixel]

How about this Dave, as a specific example?

 

Early signs indicated they would give up their 2nd round pick for a good player. Now, Wolfson tweets they are telling agents they won't do that.

 

That is a specific example of why "early signs" don't mean much (either way, frankly). Until stuff is done, it is just so much talk (for every team).

[JB_Iowa]

The problem is that people feel compelled to write something -- even when there really isn't anything to say. (This is not a criticism of you, Nick, this is about all of us).

 

There really isn't anything to say. You can take what you've heard as encouraging as Nick has done or you can take a negative view and say that nothing has changed.

 

In the long run, none of it matters -- it's actions, not words, that will make the difference.

[DaveW]

How about this Dave, as a specific example?

 

Early signs indicated they would give up their 2nd round pick for a good player. Now, Wolfson tweets they are telling agents they won't do that.

 

That is a specific example of why "early signs" don't mean much (either way, frankly). Until stuff is done, it is just so much talk (for every team).

It says they don't plan on parting with a 2nd round pick (not that they wouldn't, and even Ryan said if it was the right player they would), and frankly I think the fact they aren't meeting with Santana is a GOOD thing, I wouldn't give him a 100 mil.

 

I'd much rather they sign one of the guys like Garza who doesn't cost the pick anyways.

[Winston Smith]

Dave is just grumpy because Mark DeRosa retired!

[DJL44]

Dioner Navarro could provide what most of what they're looking for from Saltalamacchia (LH bat, decent catcher) at a fraction of the cost. It will be interesting to see what happens.

[Brock Beauchamp]

It says they don't plan on parting with a 2nd round pick (not that they wouldn't, and even Ryan said if it was the right player they would), and frankly I think the fact they aren't meeting with Santana is a GOOD thing, I wouldn't give him a 100 mil.

 

I'd much rather they sign one of the guys like Garza who doesn't cost the pick anyways.

 

Agreed. Right now, the only guy I'd give up a pick for is Jimenez. With Garza on the market, I don't think it's necessary to give up a pick to get a good pitcher (but I'd still give up the pick for Ubaldo).

[Mike Sixel]

Missing the point of my post completely..............

 

Early signs mean nothing, they are just talk. They talked about giving up their 2nd, now Wolfson is tweeting they won't do so. None of the talk matters, only action matters. And, if it is too early to say "they are doing nothing", it is similarly too early to say "they are doing something".

 

Who they'd give up a pick for is not at all what I was discussing.

[beckmt]

I also feel that actions will make a difference. Twins should only pay for a frontline(#1 or #2) starter for 3 years or more. Twins should also be very aggressive in pushing Stewart and Thorpe up the latter to see if they can make the rotation in 2016. That would make this line very plausible.

[Nick Nelson]

I thought McCann went to the Yankees?

 

Derp. Brain fart. Fixed, thanks.

[Mike Sixel]

But since we are talking who they should sign, this article explains my thinking on Ellsbury (excpet it is why the Cubs should sign him)....

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/42592/cubs-should-sign-jacoby-ellsbury

[twinscowboysbulls]

This forum is quickly becoming unreadable, Nick offers a reasonable and well thought out opinion and everyone has to rush in with the same old, tired, "Dohhh the Twins won't do anything, Ryan should be fired, derp" rhetoric that has been non stop. We get it, nobody likes coming off of three bad seasons, making thread after thread and post after post about how the Twins won't do anything, are a laughing stock etc does nothing to expand the conversation and frankly will do nothing but drive away anyone who would actually like to have a discussion about the Twins.

 

It was this sort of daily garbage that kept me off the forums the majority of the second half of the season, and I know I wasn't the only one. This isn't directed at this thread as it hasn't gotten out of hand...yet.

 

Dave, are you showing me the door?

[Otto von Ballpark]

You have to admit, it is kind of funny that this article was posted the day after the only "new news" was the Twins 2-year offer to Pelfrey. You've got to expect some critical comments from that!

[John Bonnes]

Well, I have trouble viewing their hesitance to give up a 2nd round pick to sign a guy to a long-term deal as a "smoking gun" of them back-pedaling. But to be honest, I don't remember the context of that quote. I'd be hesitant to give up a 2nd round pick for any of these guys, too. It's interesting that most rumors - not just local, but national - are not mentioning them makes me wonder if nationally other teams are hesitant, too. Anybody know when they need to decide to accept those qualifying offers?

 

A month ago I was in the camp that thought the Twins would have another underwhelming offseason. They still might, but their efforts and expectations seem to have moved up considerably.

 

I don't remember ever hearing the Twins linked consistently to this many of the top free agent pitchers. Of the top eight, they've been linked repeatedly to two of them (Nolasco, Arroyo), and a little to one more (Garza) and maybe yet one more (Tanaka), though I think that's the longest of shots. I'm interested to see what happens.

 

And as Nick points out, the link to catchers is even more significant. Of the top five catchers on the market, they've been linked to three of them (Saltalamacchia, Pierzynski, Navarro), and they're the three remaining ones.

 

Best of all, this stuff isn't coming from the Twins. They're not trumpeting who they're looking at to local media. These are coming from national reports and agents.

 

Clearly, everyone gets to choose which way they want to play this. I can understand wanting to stay pessimistic with the hope of eventually being pleasantly surprised. But I think it's fair to say no matter how jaded you want to stay that there are a lot of positive signs early.

[jharaldson]

Well, I have trouble viewing their hesitance to give up a 2nd round pick to sign a guy to a long-term deal as a "smoking gun" of them back-pedaling. But to be honest, I don't remember the context of that quote.

 

Here is the context I am aware of. On October 25th Doogie had a phone conversation with Terry Ryan and this was the exchange in regards to the 2nd round protection:

 

Would you give up your 2nd round pick to sign a free-agent?If he's good.

Really? That surprises me.

Sure, if he's good. Depends on who it is and longevity and age and all that stuff.

 

http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/QA_with_Twins_GM_Terry_Ryan_on_plans_for_free_agency_and_other_topics102513

 

About a month later Doogie posts this:

 

The Twins have told agents that they don't plan on sacrificing their second-round pick in June's amateur draft to sign a free agent, despite a public declaration stating otherwise.

 

http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Wolfson_Updating_Twins_offseason_plan_dont_expect_a_move_this_week112613

 

Doogie is not a guy that rips the Twins so the fact that he feels this is a contradiction to the statement from October says a lot to me.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Well, I have trouble viewing their hesitance to give up a 2nd round pick to sign a guy to a long-term deal as a "smoking gun" of them back-pedaling. But to be honest, I don't remember the context of that quote. I'd be hesitant to give up a 2nd round pick for any of these guys, too.

 

Agreed. I think TR probably meant he was hypothetically willing to give up that pick... just like he often says he is hypothetically willing to spend on free agents. I think his standards for free agents are difficult if not impossible to achieve.

[Marta Shearing]

Twins fans have every right to be skeptical. To be paranoid. To fear the worst. Ryan has never done a thing to make us feel otherwise.

[nicksaviking]

Here is the context I am aware of. On October 25th Doogie had a phone conversation with Terry Ryan and this was the exchange in regards to the 2nd round protection:

 

 

 

http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/QA_with_Twins_GM_Terry_Ryan_on_plans_for_free_agency_and_other_topics102513

 

About a month later Doogie posts this:

 

 

 

http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Wolfson_Updating_Twins_offseason_plan_dont_expect_a_move_this_week112613

 

Doogie is not a guy that rips the Twins so the fact that he feels this is a contradiction to the statement from October says a lot to me.

 

I think most people would say I'm not much of a front office supporter, but Ryan did say that on October 25th. At that time no one knew who would or would not be getting qualifying offers. For all we know Ryan told Wolfson this before Lincecum re-signed and he had his sights set on him. Perhaps there was a player he wanted who he was hoping wouldn't have his option picked up or perhaps he said this thinking the Twins might be able to make a play on McCann or Peralta and later realized those two would get rediculous offers.

 

Still his original assertion that they wouldn't mind parting with the 2nd round pick always did seem as hollow as his assertion last year that they would go after really good free agent pitchers.

 

Personally I do think this year is different, simply because I don't think legit sportswriters and agents both have ever credibly linked the Twins to top free agents before. Still pessimism seems to be justifyed as nothing has happened, thus we still have no track record to base positivity on. It's not like WE should have to prove ourselves to the Twins. THEY are the ones that rely on us, they need to prove themselves to us.

 

I do get the frustration with all the negativity but since nothing has happned yet, every conversation basically boils down to "They will!" or "They won't!" It's kind of hard to fault those who are inclined to say "They won't" for not wanting sit out the conversations.

[James]

Anybody know when they need to decide to accept those qualifying offers?

This year the deadline for accepting/rejecting a QO was Nov.11th. Teams have 5 days after the world series to make the offer, and players have 7 days after the offer has been made to make up their mind. Just like many of these types of things in the baseball world, teams and players waited until the last day to make their decision.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/explaining-qualifying-offers.html

 

Nick, good article. This has been an interesting off-season for the Twins so far, only in the fact that they're getting a lot of national press and getting connected to higher level free agents than previous years, as others have said. The child-like fan in me thinks that this time the Twins mean it, and they're going to sign some good starting pitching. They realist fan is a lot more skeptical. I also don't expect anything to happen until the winter meetings though, and I think there will still be plenty of worthwhile guys available during the meetings as well.

[Physics Guy]

Keep up the positivity Nick. I am hoping it comes to fruition. Only time will tell.