How the Twins Have a Top-8 Roster Entering the Offseason

[Cody Christie]

The Minnesota Twins have plenty of work to do this offseason after finishing the 2026 campaign with a disappointing 77-85 record. Between free agents departing and several holes that need to be addressed, the roster will look different when the team takes the field next spring. However, a recent MLB.com ranking suggests Minnesota might be closer to contention than its record indicates.

Mike Petriello recently ranked all 30 MLB teams based on their projected 2027 rosters. Using Wins Above Replacement (WAR) projections from FanGraphs, the rankings examine where each organization stands as it enters the offseason. This isn't a ranking of last year's results. Instead, it provides a snapshot of the players currently projected to be on each team's roster before free-agent additions and other offseason moves.

According to Petriello's rankings, the Twins are tied for eighth overall. That's a surprisingly strong position for a team that finished eight games below .500. Minnesota shares that ranking with the Tampa Bay Rays, the reigning American League champions, along with the Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays.

Why Are the Twins Ranked So High?

Petriello acknowledges that Minnesota's position in the rankings might surprise some fans. After all, this is a team that won only 77 games and struggled to establish much consistency throughout the season. However, the projections see something worth building around.

The Twins don't necessarily have a lineup full of superstar players, but they also don't have many glaring weaknesses throughout the projected batting order. Having a relatively balanced group of position players can make a significant difference when evaluating a roster's overall projected value.

There are also some interesting young players who could help elevate that group. Petriello specifically points toward the projections for Kaelen Culpepper (3.1 fWAR) and Luke Keaschall (3.4 fWAR). There is certainly room to question how much optimism should be placed in those projections, but their potential contributions help explain Minnesota's ranking.

The pitching staff also has some reasons for optimism. Taj Bradley (2.7 fWAR)  took a significant step forward during his breakout campaign, giving the organization another intriguing arm near the top of its rotation. Joe Ryan (3.0 fWAR) remains an important part of the starting group, while Pablo López (1.8 fWAR) is expected to return and provide another major boost.

Those three pitchers give Minnesota a foundation that could make the rotation one of its strengths in 2027. However, the projections also highlight how much work remains to build a reliable pitching staff behind them.

Several Offseason Needs Remain

Being ranked among baseball's top eight projected rosters doesn't mean the Twins can sit back and enjoy the offseason. Petriello identifies several areas where Minnesota needs to make improvements.

The departure of Ryan Jeffers creates an immediate need behind the plate. Jeffers has been an important part of the organization, and the Twins cannot simply assume the current catching situation will be enough to replace his production. They need to find another option who can handle a significant workload.

Josh Bell is another major departure. He provided 21 home runs during the 2026 season, and Minnesota needs to find a way to replace that power. The Twins don't necessarily need to sign another first baseman with the same profile, but they need to add some offensive production to a lineup that already lacks many established stars.

The bullpen might be the biggest overall concern. Minnesota needs multiple reinforcements to create a more dependable group of relievers. Losing A.J. Minter to free agency would add another challenge for a pitching staff that needs more reliable late-inning options.

Starting pitching depth is another concern. Bradley, Ryan, and López provide an encouraging top three, but the organization cannot expect Bailey Ober, Zebby Matthews, and Dean Kremer to absorb hundreds of additional innings without finding more help. Injuries and workload management make starting rotation depth essential over a 162-game season.

There is plenty of work ahead, but these are manageable needs for a team with an established foundation.

How Does the Rest of the AL Central Compare?

The Twins' ranking also provides an interesting look at the rest of the division. The Cleveland Guardians lead the AL Central representatives, ranking seventh overall. Minnesota and Detroit are tied for eighth, putting three division rivals among the top eight projected rosters in baseball. The Chicago White Sox come in at No. 20, while the Kansas City Royals rank 23rd.

Cleveland remains near the top of the rankings despite having some significant pitching needs. Detroit also has plenty of work ahead, particularly with its rotation and bullpen. Meanwhile, Chicago and Kansas City have more roster questions to answer before they can be considered serious contenders.

The AL Central could be an interesting division again in 2027, especially if Minnesota and Detroit can translate their projected roster value into more wins.

The Twins Have Work to Do

An eighth-place preseason roster ranking doesn't guarantee anything. The Twins were projected to be more competitive in 2026 than their final record suggested, and projections are never a substitute for results on the field.

Still, this ranking provides an encouraging starting point for Minnesota's offseason. The organization has young talent, intriguing starting pitching, and a lineup that projects to be relatively balanced. Those are important building blocks for a team hoping to return to postseason contention.

Now comes the difficult part. The Twins need to replace the production of departing free agents, improve their bullpen, add catching help, and provide more depth to the rotation. Those moves will require resources and a willingness to improve the roster.

Petriello's ranking offers a snapshot of where Minnesota stands before the Hot Stove season gets going. By the time spring training arrives, the Twins could look considerably different. The decisions made over the next several months will ultimately determine whether they remain a top-eight projected roster or fall further down the rankings heading into the 2027 campaign.

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Do you agree with the rankings? What additions could move Minnesota higher this winter? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

 

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

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[DJL44]

That’s great that the projection systems are bullish on Kaelen Culpepper.

[Glorybound]

No they do not have a top 8 roster. Too many holes in lineup and a crappy defense. Bullpen doesn’t have a sure fire closer either.

[IndianaTwin]

It looks like the "Free Agent" team is a strong candidate to win it all. They've got 162 fWAR, more than thrice the Dodgers. 

Of note is that they project Jeffers at 2.3 and Carson Kelley at 2.0 among free agents. Adding some time at DH, they have Jeffers (2.5) as the fifth-best hitter among free agents, a tick ahead of Arozarena (2.4). 

 

They also have Caratini at 2.1, so there's also that in the projection...

[Nashvilletwin]

This is exactly the type of bs that keeps our FO under a delusional spell.

Regardless if we are 8th or not (personally, I’d like to know what those rankers are smoking), we cannot afford to take our eye off the most important objective of building for ‘28-‘30.  If we turn out 4th, 8th, 12th or whatever, it won’t matter as long as we develop those young players.  We have a chance at a legitimate top 5 roster for several years if we commit to investing the innings and ABs in our young players.

Having said that, with the addition of two starting position player FAs (I propose Jeffers at C and Arraez at 2B), as well as a couple of FA RPs, this roster in ‘27 could actually be dangerous (in addition to being really fun to watch) if the young guys produce earlier/more than expected.  But by no means should we hold back on playing Jenkins, Rodriguez, Culpepper, Houston (when he arrives) or even Keaschall or Lee if they do not.

[jmlease1]

I like the twins roster a fair amount if it has Culpepper, Jenkins, and Rodriguez in it from the jump along with Buxton, Keaschall, and Lee. The rotation looks good with Lopez, Ryan, and Bradley at the top with Prielipp, Abel, Matthews, and Kramer filling out the back. The bullpen is definitely better than last season, even if it has holes.

The cupboard is not bare, even if the season ended quite poorly. I'd say 8th is probably a little high but you also have to remember that other teams may be starting with bigger holes because of free agency even if there's a presumption that certain guys will be signed they haven't actually done it yet.

[tony&rodney]

Hard to dismiss the standings from 2026 already, before any strong additions are completed. I believe the Twins won one more game than expected. Picking the Twins above any team in the AL Central is iffy right now. No reason to rank rosters until Spring Training closes.

[Cory Engelhardt]

28 minutes ago, Glorybound said:

No they do not have a top 8 roster. Too many holes in lineup and a crappy defense. Bullpen doesn’t have a sure fire closer either.

The defense should be improved over last year with a lot more speed in the outfield at minimum.

[HerbieFan]

I would like a double dose of the Kool Aid Mike Pretriello is drinking!

[Nashvilletwin]

Is this a top 8 roster?

Keaschall, DH. 
Arraez, 2B. 
Buxton, CF. 
Jeffers, C.  
Jenkins, LF. 
Clemens, 1B. 
Lee, 3B. 
Rodriguez, RF. 
Culpepper, SS

Bench: Caratini, Kreidler, Martin, Roden

Starters: Lopez, Ryan (if he stays), Bradley, Prielipp, Kremer, Matthews, Abel

Bullpen: Morris, Gomez, Ober, Adams, Hoffman, Sands, Funderbunk, plus 2 FAs. 

Answer: Maybe or maybe not depending on how the youngsters play and pitch. However, it damn well could be in ‘28 and for the next couple of years. 

[Whitey333]

No this team is not top 8.  They are middle of the pack at best.  Some coild argue they may be bottom 8.  How about rsnking teams on performance and not projections.  This team went 77-85 this past season.  TheAmerican League was weak.  The Central Division was very weak.  Twins couldn't even compete.  Lets re check and re-evaluate projections/ratings closer to the 2027 season, when and if we have one.  Lets see if the Twins look better at least on paper after an off season of roster construction.

[EGFTShaw]

4 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Is this a top 8 roster?

Keaschall, DH. 
Arraez, 2B. 
Buxton, CF. 
Jeffers, C.  
Jenkins, LF. 
Clemens, 1B. 
Lee, 3B. 
Rodriguez, RF. 
Culpepper, SS

Bench: Caratini, Kreidler, Martin, Roden

Starters: Lopez, Ryan (if he stays), Bradley, Prielipp, Kremer, Matthews, Abel

Bullpen: Morris, Gomez, Ober, Adams, Hoffman, Sands, Funderbunk, plus 2 FAs. 

Answer: Maybe or maybe not depending on how the youngsters play and pitch. However, it damn well could be in ‘28 and for the next couple of years. 

Precisely.
There is TALENT
But will that TALENT execute
Can the COACHES get the most out of the TALENT
Defense is one area they damn well better improve from coaching.

[Cris E]

Too many people think 2027 is going to look like 2026, but the end of last year was nothing like the start of it. 

The defense improved a lot just by moving everyone to a simpler position and getting a real SS who might be able to hit. If you remove Wallner, Larnach and Keschall from all defensive calculations and then take Lee from bad SS to gold glove caliber 3B you're in a completely new world.

The pitching improves simply by adding Lopez, Bradley breaking through and most of the bullpen finally being replaced. Hoffman can pretend to be a closer better than Gomez, and the parade of the terribles has been stopped in favor of a few pros and some kids learning the job. 

There are some rosy projections involved here, but mostly the 2027 team is better simply by being less dumb about who is on the field.

[Cris E]

37 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

No this team is not top 8.  They are middle of the pack at best.  Some coild argue they may be bottom 8.  How about rsnking teams on performance and not projections.  This team went 77-85 this past season.  TheAmerican League was weak.  The Central Division was very weak.  Twins couldn't even compete.  Lets re check and re-evaluate projections/ratings closer to the 2027 season, when and if we have one.  Lets see if the Twins look better at least on paper after an off season of roster construction.

There were thousands of innings of bad defense that will not be repeated. No Lee at SS, Lewis at 3B, no Keaschall at 2B, no Clemens in CF, no Bell on the dirt at all, Wallner, Larnach potentially not starting, so even if the lineup only changes a little the defense is improved by a mile, which also helps the pitching.

A third of that 77 win season was played before most of those changes happened. Almost half was played with that ridiculous bulkpen (a typo I am choosing to stick with because it's awesome.) And then in the last six weeks they finally started calling up the kids. 

The Twins' projections look better today just by applying the changes that did happen by the end of the season. Any additional roster building only makes them stronger. 

[MeleMouth]

9 minutes ago, Cris E said:

Too many people think 2027 is going to look like 2026, but the end of last year was nothing like the start of it. 

They went 21-30 in August and September. Over 162 games that would be 67-95. That's a pretty bad "end of last year."

Just to squeak into the playoffs, they probably need 87 wins. That's a gain of 20 wins to make 2027 good, assuming we go back to defining good as just getting into the playoffs.

What are the components of the 20 win increase from the "rosy predictions" you listed?

[terrydactyls]

35 minutes ago, Cris E said:

Too many people think 2027 is going to look like 2026, but the end of last year was nothing like the start of it. 

The defense improved a lot just by moving everyone to a simpler position and getting a real SS who might be able to hit. If you remove Wallner, Larnach and Keschall from all defensive calculations and then take Lee from bad SS to gold glove caliber 3B you're in a completely new world.

The pitching improves simply by adding Lopez, Bradley breaking through and most of the bullpen finally being replaced. Hoffman can pretend to be a closer better than Gomez, and the parade of the terribles has been stopped in favor of a few pros and some kids learning the job. 

There are some rosy projections involved here, but mostly the 2027 team is better simply by being less dumb about who is on the field.

Being "less dumb" is setting a pretty high bar for the current front office.

[Cris E]

2 hours ago, MeleMouth said:

They went 21-30 in August and September. Over 162 games that would be 67-95. That's a pretty bad "end of last year."

Just to squeak into the playoffs, they probably need 87 wins. That's a gain of 20 wins to make 2027 good, assuming we go back to defining good as just getting into the playoffs.

What are the components of the 20 win increase from the "rosy predictions" you listed?

Buxton and Lewis both finished their seasons in freefall, playing weeks or months past their last decent performance at sub .500 OPS levels. With the kids offering better options at several positions it can be hoped that better choices will be made. Lopez and Ryan should be pitching in the second half. If Morris falls apart mid-season again they have better options and can push him up to the sixth inning rather than just continuing to see what happens in the eighth night after night. Culpepper missed half of Sept. 

It may not be 20 games, but it's a very good start to a lineup before the winter roster work begins. No holes in the rotation, good young guys at most spots, only a couple real vacancies to work around.  It's a better baseline than a lot of teams are rolling out simply because so many are young and at a point in their careers where guys can still improve from year to year. That's what the projections are showing.

I suppose the gap here is what you call good. Going from 70 wins to the playoffs in two years counts as good in my book. If you're one of those world series or bust guys then I don't know what to tell you. If everything sucks until the year you raise the trophy you're going to be sad a lot between now and then. Good luck. 

[jkcarew]

 

38 minutes ago, Cris E said:

No holes in the rotation, good young guys at most spots, only a couple real vacancies to work around.

I suppose the gap here is what you call good. Going from 70 wins to the playoffs in two years counts as good in my book. If you're one of those world series or bust guys then I don't know what to tell you. If everything sucks until the year you raise the trophy you're going to be sad a lot between now and then. Good luck. 

You mean “between 36 years ago and then”.

Nevertheless, after this long journey, we’re finally right where we need to be…looking at a possibility of the playoffs in a couple years!! And as long as we continue to never ask for, or expect, more…we’ll never have to be disappointed, and the ownership group can continue to sleep happily every night. It’s the Twins Way. Why break tradition.

[Brandon]

I disagree with your assessment of their rotation.  It's plenty deep and they have pitching to spare in that they can trade Ober.  You didn't include Rojas.  

Their bullpen is vastly improved by season's end.  They do need to replace Minter and add maybe one more reliever.  

C/ 1B/ DH is all a black hole now with Jeffers and Bell free agents and Lewis not a top or even average player.  Larnarch can DH some and Clemens can be a 1B when Houston comes up.   If the Twins can resign Jeffers we might be good though a better hitter getting added to the lineup will help too.  

Bench is passable.  Of are good, Kreidler ok, and Cartini is a sunk cost but can at least be available to play I guess.  

Gotta let the kids play to see where we really are but the potential is there.  

[MeleMouth]

2 hours ago, Cris E said:

I suppose the gap here is what you call good. Going from 70 wins to the playoffs in two years counts as good in my book. If you're one of those world series or bust guys then I don't know what to tell you. If everything sucks until the year you raise the trophy you're going to be sad a lot between now and then. Good luck. 

Making the playoffs is a good first start if it's sustainable and it leads to being more competitive. But if it requires selling out the future, such as by

• trading a bunch of prospects of whatever caliber for mediocre pitchers,
• not trading your veterans who could bring back prospects who could help in future years, and/or
• signing aging free agents to expensive contracts who will probably decline from their first year,

then, no, making the playoffs is a terrible goal, because it comes at the cost of sustained competitiveness at a level much better than having a chance to make the playoffs. 

History is on my side of this argument. Since 2017, when the Twins really started this "let's make the playoffs and see what happens" theme, they have made the playoffs fewer times than nearly every other team and have perhaps the worst overall record in the playoffs during those 10 years. But every year, once again, the goal becomes to scrape into the playoffs at the cost of the future instead of paying the price to build something sustainable.

[MeleMouth]

2 hours ago, Cris E said:

Buxton and Lewis both finished their seasons in freefall, playing weeks or months past their last decent performance at sub .500 OPS levels. With the kids offering better options at several positions it can be hoped that better choices will be made. Lopez and Ryan should be pitching in the second half. If Morris falls apart mid-season again they have better options and can push him up to the sixth inning rather than just continuing to see what happens in the eighth night after night. Culpepper missed half of Sept. 

It may not be 20 games, but it's a very good start to a lineup before the winter roster work begins. No holes in the rotation, good young guys at most spots, only a couple real vacancies to work around.  It's a better baseline than a lot of teams are rolling out simply because so many are young and at a point in their careers where guys can still improve from year to year. That's what the projections are showing.

You didn't do the numbers. Let's try.

Buxton: if he a full season like H1-26, then that's another 2.5 wins. Of course, Buxton almost never plays a full season, but count it.

Lewis: benefit of the doubt, he's a 3 win player. That's another 2.5 wins.

Lopez: coming off his first TJ, Gerrit Cole was a 2 win pitcher this year. It would rash to expect more than that from Lopez, coming off his second TJ and never being as good as Cole. But it's a not a clean gain of 2 wins, because he's replacing someone else. Last year's lowest WAR starters were Ober at 1.3 and Kremer at 0.9 in half a year. You can also combine Abel's 0.6 in a few starts with Kremer's 0.9 to get to 1.5. Lopez's 2 wins would be offset by the reduction in one of their wins. For optimism, let's say Lopez adds 1 win.

Ryan: last year, Ryan was 2.5 wins. His career high is 3.1. Let's say he's healthy and has a career year and the Twins again choose to do the wrong thing by keeping him instead of cashing him in for the future, so he gets to 4 wins. That's a gain of 1.5.

That's optimistically 7.5 wins. Another 12.5 wins assumes 4 wins each from Jenkins and Culpepper, net of losses from players like Larnach who held their positions last year; a gain of 5 wins from the bullpen, which would vault the bullpen from 23rd in 2026 to fifth in 2027; the same contribution from the catcher and DH positions; and no declines from players like Keaschall and Clemens. 

That gets you to 20.5, and Maybe Keaschall and Bradley will also provide 1 more win apiece, so that gets you to 22.5.

But hold on. The Twins record was 77-85 last year, but Pythagorean and Base Runs says they were a 75 win team. Therefore, adding 22.5 wins get them to 87.5 wins. Let's call it 88, which usually gets a team into the expanded playoffs.

Crazier things have happened, but it seems more than a tad on the optimistic side, wouldn't you say? For example, the ChiSox gained only 17 wins in 2026 from their Base Runs record in 2025, and a lot of things broke really well for them in 2026. Among other teams with a losing Base Runs record in 2025, the Braves won 15 more games and the Guardians gained 8. All other teams with a losing Base Runs record in 2025 were losing teams in 2026.