How the Qualifying Offer Impacts the Twins’ Free Agent Search

[Cody Christie]

The Minnesota Twins enter the offseason with an understanding that things need to change. After several seasons of payroll restrictions, ownership has acknowledged that the organization cannot consistently compete for a postseason spot while operating with a payroll around $100 million. New chairman Tom Pohlad has promised to provide general manager Jeremy Zoll with additional financial resources, but the qualifying offer system could complicate Minnesota's pursuit of several intriguing free agents.

During the team's end-of-season press conference in September, Pohlad made his expectations clear.

“I have said over and over that a $100 million payroll or anything close to that is not sufficient to be consistently competitive and in the playoffs, and so we intend to take the offseason and meaningfully invest,” Pohlad said.

Those comments were encouraging for a fan base that has watched the Twins operate with significant financial limitations. However, spending more money does not automatically mean Minnesota will pursue every available player. The front office must consider contract costs, roster needs, and the draft-pick implications of signing players who received qualifying offers.

That final consideration became particularly important when MLB announced its eight qualifying-offer recipients.

Eight Players Receive Qualifying Offers

Earlier this week, eight players received one-year qualifying offers worth $23.15 million. Players have until November 17 to decide whether to accept the offer or decline it and enter free agency.

The eight recipients include:

• Randy Arozarena, Seattle Mariners
• Jake Bauers, Milwaukee Brewers
• David Bednar, New York Yankees
• Ryan Jeffers, Minnesota Twins
• Brandon Lowe, Pittsburgh Pirates
• Adrián Morejón, San Diego Padres
• Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles
• Seiya Suzuki, Chicago Cubs

For Minnesota, the list contains some interesting names. Jeffers is obviously an important part of the Twins' offseason plans, but four other recipients could have made sense as potential additions.

Jake Bauers, Brandon Lowe, Adrián Morejón, and David Bednar were already somewhat unlikely targets because of their expected contracts. Now, their qualifying-offer status creates another obstacle for Minnesota. First, because there is a chance some of these players accept the one-year, $23.15 million contract and never become free agents. But even if they do become free agents, the draft-pick compensation the Twins would need to give up would be a significant deterrent to a small-market team that depends on building from within. 

Jake Bauers Could Address First Base

The Twins need to address their first-base situation after Josh Bell reached free agency. One intriguing option would have been Milwaukee's Jake Bauers. The 31-year-old enjoyed the best season of his career in 2026, hitting .266/.389/.484 with 26 home runs and 86 RBI across 144 games. He also demonstrated some defensive versatility, appearing at first base and in the outfield.

Bauers would give Minnesota another left-handed power option while providing an opportunity to improve its production at first base. His .389 on-base percentage would also represent an appealing addition to the lineup. There are reasons to believe Bauers could have been a reasonable free agent target. However, his breakout season puts him in a different position financially, and the qualifying offer complicates matters further.

The Twins would have to compete with other interested clubs while considering the additional draft-pick cost. Bauers was already a somewhat unlikely target, and the qualifying offer makes that possibility even less realistic.

Brandon Lowe Would Add Power at Second Base

Another intriguing name is Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Brandon Lowe. Minnesota could use another established offensive presence on the right side of its infield, and Lowe would provide exactly that. Lowe put together an impressive 2026 campaign, hitting .260/.331/.493 with 35 home runs and 96 RBI across 150 games. He also posted an .824 OPS, making him one of the more productive offensive second basemen in baseball.

The 32-year-old has established himself as a consistent power threat throughout his career. His ability to hit for power from the left side would give the Twins another dimension offensively. There are some questions about how long Lowe can maintain that production, especially considering his age. Still, his recent performance makes him an appealing option for a Minnesota team looking to strengthen its infield.

Unfortunately, Lowe's qualifying-offer status makes the situation more complicated. The Twins would need to commit significant money to bring him aboard while sacrificing a valuable draft selection. That is a substantial price for a player who was already expected to be an expensive free agent.

Adrián Morejón Could Strengthen the Bullpen

Relief pitching should be one of Minnesota's biggest offseason priorities. The Twins need more dependable high-leverage options, particularly from the left side of the bullpen. San Diego's Adrián Morejón would have been an excellent fit. The 27-year-old left-hander appeared in 76 games during the 2026 season, posting a 2.83 ERA across 86 innings. He struck out 107 hitters while recording a 1.08 WHIP. Morejón also accumulated 28 holds, demonstrating his ability to handle important situations.

His combination of strikeout stuff, versatility, and experience in a high-leverage role would make him an attractive addition. Morejón could provide Minnesota with a dependable option in the seventh or eighth inning while potentially giving the team another late-game weapon. The biggest obstacle would be the financial commitment. Morejón is entering free agency following consecutive productive seasons, and teams searching for bullpen help should have considerable interest.

Adding the qualifying-offer penalty makes him an even less likely target. Minnesota needs bullpen upgrades, but sacrificing a draft selection while making a significant financial investment might be more than the front office wants to consider.

David Bednar Would Provide a Proven Closer

David Bednar might be the most recognizable name among these four potential targets. The former Pittsburgh Pirates closer enjoyed another excellent season after joining the New York Yankees. Bednar recorded 35 saves while posting a 2.47 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 76 strikeouts across 69 1/3 innings. He established himself as a reliable ninth-inning option for New York.

The Twins could certainly use that type of experience at the back of their bullpen. While Minnesota has internal options for late-inning duties, adding an established closer would give manager Derek Shelton additional flexibility.

Bednar would likely command one of the more lucrative relief-pitching contracts available this offseason. His track record, recent performance, and experience in high-pressure situations make him an attractive option for multiple contenders. Minnesota could use someone with his abilities, but the financial and draft-pick requirements make this another difficult possibility. Bednar was already a long shot, and his qualifying offer further reduces the likelihood of a potential agreement.

The Draft Pick Complicates Everything

The financial commitment required to sign Bauers, Lowe, Morejón, or Bednar is only part of the equation. Because Minnesota receives revenue sharing, the Twins would forfeit their third-highest selection in the 2027 MLB Draft if they signed a player who declined a qualifying offer. That penalty is less severe than what some other organizations face. Teams paying the competitive balance tax must surrender multiple selections, while other clubs can lose a higher selection and international bonus-pool money. However, losing that third-highest pick still carries considerable value. The Twins have invested heavily in rebuilding their farm system, and surrendering a valuable selection would limit their ability to add another young player to the organization.

There is also an interesting situation involving their own qualifying-offer recipient. Jeffers received a one-year, $23.15 million qualifying offer from Minnesota. If he declines, the Twins can still negotiate with him on the open market and potentially bring him back on a conventional contract. Re-signing their own qualifying-offer free agent would not require Minnesota to surrender a draft selection. 

However, the organization would lose the draft-pick compensation attached to Jeffers if he returned to Minnesota. If he signs elsewhere for at least $50 million, the Twins would receive a compensatory selection after the first round. A contract below that threshold would generate a selection before the third round. That draft compensation could also influence Jeffers' market. Interested teams must consider the draft-pick penalty associated with signing him, potentially reducing the number of organizations willing to make an aggressive offer.

The Twins Need to Find Other Opportunities

Pohlad's comments about increasing payroll are encouraging, but the Twins still face several challenges when constructing their 2027 roster. They need to find ways to improve the offense, address their catching situation, and add multiple reliable bullpen arms. Bauers, Lowe, Morejón, and Bednar each offer something Minnesota could use. Unfortunately, the qualifying-offer system makes all four players more difficult to pursue.

The organization should not allow draft-pick compensation to prevent it from pursuing meaningful upgrades. However, Minnesota must also recognize that its farm system remains an important part of its long-term success.

The Twins have an opportunity to approach this offseason differently than they have in recent years. Pohlad has publicly acknowledged that a payroll around $100 million is insufficient to build a consistent playoff contender. Now, the front office needs to demonstrate that the organization is willing to follow through.

That does not mean Minnesota needs to win every bidding war. It means finding the right opportunities to spend money, improve the roster, and build a team capable of competing in October. The qualifying-offer system has made several appealing targets more expensive. The Twins will need to get creative if they want to make this a meaningful offseason.

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Should the Twins still target players who received qualifying offers? Which player makes the most sense? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

Image courtesy of Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

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[Whitey333]

I always thought that giving Jeffers the qualifying offer could be a little strange for the Twins.  Jeffers is a decent but not great catcher.  He is a below average defensive catcher.  IMO hes definitely not worth $23.15 million for one year.  Thats quite a gamble that he could except it and become the highest paid player on the Twins.  A little strange for the cost conscious Twins.  You could have an opening day starting pitcher of Lopez returning from injury making 21.5 mill and Jeffers making 23.15 million.  Over 44 million for two players.  Of course they are gambling he turns it down so they could potentially get a decent draft pick.  Seems like a lit of financial risk for a draft pick.

[Linus]

For me, it comes down to are you really trying to win or are you saying you are trying to win as a PR initiative. If you are truly trying to win you don’t care about the draft pick compensation as you have the opportunity to add a hitter better than anyone on your roster currently. If it’s PR talk and you focusing on 28 or 29 you absolutely don’t give up the pick. 

[Jacksson]

It Doesn't.  Zoll knows how financially tight TP is despite the public rhetoric and TP will never approve the signing of amy top tier free agents which are the ones with qualifying offers.  NO WORRY.

[old nurse]

If the QO prevents them from signing average players coming off career years in a contract year that is not a bad thing. 

[Twins GFP]

Jake Bauers spent 7+ years barely holding on to an MLB job (in some years he didn't). Now at the age of 30 he has a good year and everyone is ready to throw a multi-year contract with relatively big money at him? I truly do not understand this...

The Twins need to avoid him like the plague.

[Blyleven2011]

with this years free agent options that have a qualifying offer attached to them , the twins organization would be crazy ( they’ve already proven their insane year after year ) to shell out big bucks and give up compensation to the team that lost the player …

the class of 2026 / 27 offseason free agents is not impressive , we need a slugger , is arozarena the answer ?, would you risk years of big money on Bauer who was just a bench player before this past season ? . 

twins say they are going to raise payroll, spend money and draw the fans back to target field , they said we were contenders in 2026 ( maybe in a weak division ) but the overall picture they were not …

not trading and instead they bought at the deadline and that didn’t work to the teams advantage …

the twins once again are not in a good position to spend on high dollar contract's and really improve the team with slightly above average players and forfeit a draft pick because of the qualifying offer …

get consistent hitters and the only player that I know who has been the most consistent over his career is ARRAEZ , he has improved his defense  , yeah  know he doesn’t hit homers but he was a great spark plug for the twins  …

We need consistency from the hitters and and defense , an arm or two in the bullpen , i can live with our starting rotation …

IMPROVE THE TEAM , spend wisely and fill holes , don’t spend just for the sake of spending  …

[SE23]

1 hour ago, Blyleven2011 said:

with this years free agent options that have a qualifying offer attached to them , the twins organization would be crazy ( they’ve already proven their insane year after year ) to shell out big bucks and give up compensation to the team that lost the player …

the class of 2026 / 27 offseason free agents is not impressive , we need a slugger , is arozarena the answer ?, would you risk years of big money on Bauer who was just a bench player before this past season ? . 

twins say they are going to raise payroll, spend money and draw the fans back to target field , they said we were contenders in 2026 ( maybe in a weak division ) but the overall picture they were not …

not trading and instead they bought at the deadline and that didn’t work to the teams advantage …

the twins once again are not in a good position to spend on high dollar contract's and really improve the team with slightly above average players and forfeit a draft pick because of the qualifying offer …

get consistent hitters and the only player that I know who has been the most consistent over his career is ARRAEZ , he has improved his defense  , yeah  know he doesn’t hit homers but he was a great spark plug for the twins  …

We need consistency from the hitters and and defense , an arm or two in the bullpen , i can live with our starting rotation …

IMPROVE THE TEAM , spend wisely and fill holes , don’t spend just for the sake of spending  …

Nobody would enjoy seeing Luis back in a Twins uniform more than I would -- but I do understand the objections to that move. Because we've already begun to transition to a more athletic, defensive roster, I would favor Dubon or Jordan Lawlar in that slot.

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, Twins GFP said:

Jake Bauers spent 7+ years barely holding on to an MLB job (in some years he didn't). Now at the age of 30 he has a good year and everyone is ready to throw a multi-year contract with relatively big money at him? I truly do not understand this...

The Twins need to avoid him like the plague.

All of the hitters that would cost the Twins draft picks had career years. Jake Bauers is the most extreme, Arozarena the least. The most likely to sustain the production is Arozerena, 

[Karbo]

Im not convinced they will increase payroll as much as some expect. I for one want to see it to believe it!

[Nashvilletwin]

Of the QO FAs, Bauers coming of a WS win might be the one most likely to accept the QO and stay with the Brewers. Just a h gut feeling. 

[Whammy]

3 hours ago, Karbo said:

Im not convinced they will increase payroll as much as some expect. I for one want to see it to believe it!

Thanks for the insight

[Whammy]

7 hours ago, old nurse said:

If the QO prevents them from signing average players coming off career years in a contract year that is not a bad thing. 

I'm curious who on the list of QO players you'd put in that bucket?

Arozarena - Maybe a little. Had his best year, but he's had other really good years. Probably would have received a QO a year ago if he was a FA

Bauers - Yep. Totally Agree. He scares me

Bednar - Not at all. If anything he had one of his worst seasons (he was still really good)

Jeffers - His 2023 was better. Was above career averages, but not by a ton.

Lowe - Nope. 2026 OPS+ slightly below career average

Morejon - HIs 2026 was very similar to his 2024 and 2025

Rogers - Not sure what to do with him. Had an incredible 2/3rds of a 2025 season, but was only OK in 2026 (albeit healthier). Definitely not a career year.

Suzuki - Had a career average OPS+ in 2026. Defensive numbers boosted his WAR to new heights. 

[dxpavelka]

9 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

I always thought that giving Jeffers the qualifying offer could be a little strange for the Twins.  Jeffers is a decent but not great catcher.  He is a below average defensive catcher.  IMO hes definitely not worth $23.15 million for one year.  Thats quite a gamble that he could except it and become the highest paid player on the Twins.  A little strange for the cost conscious Twins.  You could have an opening day starting pitcher of Lopez returning from injury making 21.5 mill and Jeffers making 23.15 million.  Over 44 million for two players.  Of course they are gambling he turns it down so they could potentially get a decent draft pick.  Seems like a lit of financial risk for a draft pick.

If they intend to spend more money on payroll I have no objection to that money being spent to keep guys here rather than TRYING to bring in guys that are probably not likely to be worth the price.  Like it or not it's likelythat we would get twice the value for a FA 1B at $17 million AAV than we have recently from guys like Bell, Santana or Solano at less than half that.  

[Blyleven2011]

6 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Of the QO FAs, Bauers coming of a WS win might be the one most likely to accept the QO and stay with the Brewers. Just a h gut feeling. 

Bauer had a career year , never had a productive season , before this season he batted in the lower 200’s and was mostly a bench player …

if Bauer has a smart agent he should be smart to capitalize on his career year for a multi year contract …

guess we’ll just have to wait and see what others teams think of his breakout year …

Bauer is a NO for me , arozarena has been the most consistent of the QO bunch  …

[DocBauer]

ÀThe guy I'd really like to have is Bauers. He would fit really nice behind Buxton. As I understand it he was a pretty hot prospect in the past. He started to show real life in 2025 and took a major jump this season. I initially thought 3 for $36M would be fair. Heck, even 3 for $45 should be considered. But those numbers do carry some risk that 2026 wasn't an aberration. But there has been some speculation he might get 4 years and up to $18M per which is just crazy to me.

Then you add in the cost of the Twins 3rd highest draft pick and I just don't see it making sense. Now, if/when Jeffers moves on, we gain an additional pick. So in a sense, it replaces the pick we'd lose if we signed one of the "top 4" as listed above. But even if the Twins want to get in to a bidding war for any of those with the QO, the years, $, AND losing their 2nd round pick would probably be too much to give up collectively. 

That's the bad news.

The good news is there are some really good RP available that don't have the QO. And Bauers and Lowe aren't the only options available to improve the lineup. There's still a handful of FA options to augment the lineup, as well as the possibility of trade opportunities. 

I don't want the Twins to be cheap. (Any longer). But they will seldom outbid large market teams for cream of the crop FA. That doesn't mean there aren't and won't be quality FA for them to sign. Including this offseason.

But I do think giving up a draft pick is a mistake for a team like the Twins, generally speaking,  unless it's for someone who fills a specific need for a team with real aspirations. So never say never. 

 

[Dawgzilla]

Tongue-n-cheek...go cheap or go home, that is the Twin's ownership way.  Sorry for being so negative, but that is the reality.  How is that Target Field needed, "so we can compete" working out?  You got suckered!  Now, you can't even get to watch your local team on TV without another subscription!!!!!  Whatever!!!

[bean5302]

The assumption should be the draft pick loss no longer applies in the next CBA.

[ashbury]

21 hours ago, Whammy said:

Thanks for the insight

[Whammy]

Nope. I was being sarcastic. 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Whammy said:

Nope. I was being sarcastic. 

Moi aussi.  😁

[Whammy]

We’re so many layers deep in our sarcasm, that we’re speaking French now?

 

[Riverbrian]

On 11/7/2026 at 8:14 AM, old nurse said:

If the QO prevents them from signing average players coming off career years in a contract year that is not a bad thing. 

It's a risk. And it fails more than it succeeds. 

They need a big bat. 

I throw my hands up. 

[old nurse]

8 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

It's a risk. And it fails more than it succeeds. 

They need a big bat. 

I throw my hands up. 

When they added for big bat they added Donaldson, Cruz, Santana and Bell. That is more successful than not. Bader, Simmons and France were.to fill a hole Correa was a pile of injures. Catching has been failures as additions.  Lowe has beeen a 2 war player. Spiked to 5. If he gets paid like a 5 and regresses to his mean that is a big fail. Bauers the same. Signing Arozorena or Suzuki would signal the highly touted OF are failing. 

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

When they added for big bat they added Donaldson, Cruz, Santana and Bell. That is more successful than not. Bader, Simmons and France were.to fill a hole Correa was a pile of injures. Catching has been failures as additions.  Lowe has beeen a 2 war player. Spiked to 5. If he gets paid like a 5 and regresses to his mean that is a big fail. Bauers the same. Signing Arozorena or Suzuki would signal the highly touted OF are failing. 

Both success and failure come in degrees.

Santana was a success with the Twins.. Not so much with Cleveland in 2025. 

Cruz was a success with the Twins... not so much with the Nationals. 

Donaldson hit well for us but the interesting thing about Donaldson was the cost to move him. It doesn't matter what anybody thinks of IKF today. The Twins just traded Garver who had an .875 OPS and two years of control to the Rangers to get IKF.

The Yankees took on the Donaldson contract to get IKF. The Twins gave them IKF and IKF wasn't cheap to acquire. It didn't work out well for the Yankees. 

Bell did alright. Not well enough for the Twins to pick up his option for 10 million.  

Signing Bauers is absolutely risky. 

We need a big bat. I don't want to pay a high price in prospects. 

Gotta buy someone. 

Throws hands up in the air. 

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Both success and failure come in degrees.

Santana was a success with the Twins.. Not so much with Cleveland in 2025. 

Cruz was a success with the Twins... not so much with the Nationals. 

Donaldson hit well for us but the interesting thing about Donaldson was the cost to move him. It doesn't matter what anybody thinks of IKF today. The Twins just traded Garver who had an .875 OPS and two years of control to the Rangers to get IKF.

The Yankees took on the Donaldson contract to get IKF. The Twins gave them IKF and IKF wasn't cheap to acquire. It didn't work out well for the Yankees. 

Bell did alright. Not well enough for the Twins to pick up his option for 10 million.  

Signing Bauers is absolutely risky. 

We need a big bat. I don't want to pay a high price in prospects. 

Gotta buy someone. 

Throws hands up in the air. 

Big bat? By definition of 20 hr, Twins had 4 of them. Up it to 25 and there was only Buxton, and less than 50 other players. People love OPS   .850 is definitely a big bat but very few exist. If you drop it to .800 with at least 400 AB you have less than 60 players. 400 AB because if you are going to pay might as well be somebody who gets AB. Slugger. You say? By slugging % Buxton and Clemons are top 60. In that department. Keashall and Larnach were not to far out on that number   Big bats are like Bigfoot. They are hard to find.  By career consistency Arozorena and Suzuki are the big bats. Bauers and Lowe are cross your fingers that they can repeat.  I doubt any of them will sign a QO, but one never knows.  On the other hand, 31 or 32 year old player might be able to be signed to 4 year deals 

[Riverbrian]

11 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Big bat? By definition of 20 hr, Twins had 4 of them. Up it to 25 and there was only Buxton, and less than 50 other players. People love OPS   .850 is definitely a big bat but very few exist. If you drop it to .800 with at least 400 AB you have less than 60 players. 400 AB because if you are going to pay might as well be somebody who gets AB. Slugger. You say? By slugging % Buxton and Clemons are top 60. In that department. Keashall and Larnach were not to far out on that number   Big bats are like Bigfoot. They are hard to find.  By career consistency Arozorena and Suzuki are the big bats. Bauers and Lowe are cross your fingers that they can repeat.  I doubt any of them will sign a QO, but one never knows.  On the other hand, 31 or 32 year old player might be able to be signed to 4 year deals 

Agreed. 

I'm aware of the size of the task. 

I'd rather not be in this position but they still need one.

That's means they will have to cross their fingers and they will have to outbid the other teams who are also crossing their fingers. 

Arozorena or Suzuki would be great additions but... they still need to address the right side of the infield because they can't give it all to Lewis and say... OK... Let's try again.