There's a Clear Standout Among Closer Targets for the Twins in Free Agency

[mnfireman]

1 hour ago, PuckettPond said:

Those 3 will not be on the team in 2029,  trade the 2 pitchers for talent for the 2029 push and wait out Buxton's contract. Fans understand when a small market team is building for the future they get upset when they see worthless half measures. 1985, 1986 brought fans 1987.

Building towards '29 is a good plan, but Lopez is coming off of TJ surgery, and Ryan had a horrendous second half this season, neither will bring much this off-season.

No guarantee Buxton will not want to re-sign after his current contract expires, especially if the team looks to be competitive, but Atlanta (or another contending team) might appeal to him a little more.

[LA Vikes Fan]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

1) Extensions for Keaschall, Bradley, Jenkins and Culpepper. 
2) Sign a free agent second baseman (Arraez, Chisholm or Lowe)

3) Acquire a solid defensive catcher

4) Spend the rest on the bullpen (two or three pitchers)

They would probably have $10-15M left to spend on those two or three relievers.

I like this and would add two things-

5. Re-sign/extend Ryan and/or Lopez to 3-4 year deals. Trade them if you can't for pitching, including a closer. 

6. Clear the decks by trading/non-tendering Larnach, Lewis, and one of Ober (my choice) or Kremer, let Bell move on to his next team. 

Lean into the rebuild. Give Jinkins, Roden, EmRod, and Culpepper 5-6 days a week playing time. 

[MeleMouth]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Spend in free agency on the areas where the value is highest and the downside risk is lowest. That’s a position player, not a closer. The Twins need to be developing relievers, not buying them at retail prices.

The top reliever contracts are nearly all disasters: Edwin Diaz, Devin Williams, Tyler Rogers, Jordan Hicks, Tanner Scott, Ryan Helsley, Pete Fairbanks, Carlos Estevez.

Small budget teams shouldn’t pay $15M for 50 innings of baseball.

"No, it never does. I mean, these people somehow delude themselves into thinking it might, but... but it might work for us."

[ewen21]

4 hours ago, MapleGroveTwinsFan said:

So the Twins are going to sign him to a contract of 2 to 3 years between 30 - 50 million at the minimum and people think this is a good way for the Twins to spend money? 

At 15 million a year he becomes the 5th highest paid closer in the game (the 4 above play for the Houston, Dodgers, Mets and Braves, I ask again is this a good way for the Twins to spend money? 

Seems like the type of player you sign when you haven't missed the playoffs the last three years, and Jenkins, Culpepper and others have proven something, not still trying to prove themselves. 

Also seems like a player people will be pissed he is making so much for a .500 club and demanding him to be traded for prospects.

Precisely this.  Why are we looking for a closer with all the deficiencies we have?  A closer isn't what is going to turn a team like this around.  Our starting staff is nothing but a bunch of question marks all throughout the starting pitchers on our depth chart.  Ryan and Lopez are our most accomplished ones and they are huge question marks to me.  Lopez is following up his second TJ and Ryan had a horrendous ending to the season once again.  We also have several spots on the diamond that are major concerns.  This isn't stuff that can be solved by throwing money at it.

 

This isn't hindsight when I say the Twins really needed to spend money in the free agent market in the 2000s when they had young cost controlled talent on the roster and they did not.  THAT is when a mid-market team goes after the free agents and we had this silly notion that we had all the pieces already in place and that we need not "mortgage the future".  How did that turn out?  We do not have that kind of young talent.   

 

Sorry, but I am not interested in putting energy into a free agent closer.  How about raising one somehow? Isn't in odd how guys like Varland and Jax leave us and get a lot better?  Isn't it a thing that we can't draft, develop and oversee the growth of starting pitchers to a moderate amount of success?  

[ewen21]

2 hours ago, PuckettPond said:

Those 3 will not be on the team in 2029,  trade the 2 pitchers for talent for the 2029 push and wait out Buxton's contract. Fans understand when a small market team is building for the future they get upset when they see worthless half measures. 1985, 1986 brought fans 1987.

If I see this kind of movement and direction I would be on board.  This organization seems content to doggy paddle around .500,  hope we catch lightning in a bottle one year and make it to the playoffs.  That is the model.  That along with selling us some "face of the franchise"

 

I agree with you.  If we could eject Buxton into baseball outer-space we would be so much better off and that is a start if we are going to change direction.  We cannot really get much for Ryan or Lopez at the moment, but possibly could for Buxton.  If we tell him before the trade deadline that he will not be resigned for 2029 I would be extremely proud of the front office.  He should not be in the plan after 2028 and we should be honest with him and tell him to have a good day.  If he really wants to play baseball after 2028, let it be elsewhere.  We are not conscripted to have him play here for the rest of his baseball life.  This the kind of backwards thinking holding us back.

[Andy MacPhail]

Bednar is a good fit especially under Shelton & maybe should be pursued. But IMO, FA isn't the answer.

[DJL44]

19 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I like this and would add two things-

5. Re-sign/extend Ryan and/or Lopez to 3-4 year deals. Trade them if you can't for pitching, including a closer. 

6. Clear the decks by trading/non-tendering Larnach, Lewis, and one of Ober (my choice) or Kremer, let Bell move on to his next team. 

Lean into the rebuild. Give Jinkins, Roden, EmRod, and Culpepper 5-6 days a week playing time. 

I don’t want either Ryan or Lopez at age 34. Lopez will have more value at the trade deadline than he has now because he will only have $8M left on his contract. 

I would shop Joe Ryan and sell Larnach for whatever I could get. I would trade Ober or put him in the bullpen but I wouldn’t cut him.

Does Lewis have trade value? He won’t cost much on an arbitration contract. He should provide 1 WAR for $5M. That’s fine for a utility player. Keep.

[MackMan]

The sad part, maybe good part, we have tools around right now to be able to build around. The issue is that they're young and inexperienced with a full season of play, let alone a playoff game. So this is one of those times of do we sign someone because they're available and block one our young talented players, or do we let the younger player play and sign around them. Especially when we have 3-5 prospects(Jenkins, E-Rod, Culpepper, Rojas, and Prielipp) going to graduate or have graduated from their prospect status.

Now, we do only 2 years of Buxton's contract left at $15 million/yr with incentives and starting in 2027 he now has a 5 team trade clause according to SPOTRAC, notwithstanding his 10/5 status. It very possible that Buck could be on the move come next season or whenever the CBA gets ratified and reinstated to make way for younger players and possibly more spending for upgrading our team. 

[Nick Nelson]

4 hours ago, PuckettPond said:

Those 3 will not be on the team in 2029,  trade the 2 pitchers for talent for the 2029 push and wait out Buxton's contract. Fans understand when a small market team is building for the future they get upset when they see worthless half measures. 1985, 1986 brought fans 1987.

The 1987 Twins were a barely above .500 team that got hot in the playoffs. They had one of the lowest payrolls in baseball and were hardly viewed as some top contender coming in. If anything they are an example that makes the opposite of your point.

[ewen21]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I don’t want either Ryan or Lopez at age 34. Lopez will have more value at the trade deadline than he has now because he will only have $8M left on his contract. 

I would shop Joe Ryan and sell Larnach for whatever I could get. I would trade Ober or put him in the bullpen but I wouldn’t cut him.

Does Lewis have trade value? He won’t cost much on an arbitration contract. He should provide 1 WAR for $5M. That’s fine for a utility player. Keep.

Maybe there is a home for each of those players elsewhere?  You are absolutely correct.  Looking at this in terms of "loyalty" to a player or trying to half ass it into the playoffs on a wing and a prayer next year is something I really can't accept at this point.  This is enough.  I think the fanbase is ready for a nuclear winter for a year or two before a rebuild takes.  Things have to be different in so many ways.  Tyler Durden would be indignantly asking if we were really trying to hit rock bottom

[ewen21]

Basically set the entire roster free at this point.  There isn't a player who can't be replaced.  There are no "untouchables" I can see who are major league ready on the current 40 man.  

[ewen21]

35 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

The 1987 Twins were a barely above .500 team that got hot in the playoffs. They had one of the lowest payrolls in baseball and were hardly viewed as some top contender coming in. If anything they are an example that makes the opposite of your point.

I don't think you are getting his point because in 1985 and 1986 there was proven exciting young homegrown talent emerging.  Puckett, Hrbek, Gaetti, Viola plus Brunansky (acquired in a trade) were absolute stalwarts in the lineup ESPECIALLY in 1986.  In 1986, between Puckett, Gaetti, Hrbek and Brunansky; these men played in 161, 157, 149, 157 (respectively).  Then you had Lombardozzi and Gagne both playing 156 games.  ALL of these guys were all aged between 25 and 27.  His point is this team has guys even older, been here a number of years already, and we need to start making decisions about them.  He mentioned 2029.  He's basically saying "is this guy part of the plan for 2029 or not?"

[Nick Nelson]

6 minutes ago, ewen21 said:

I don't think you are getting his point because in 1985 and 1986 there was proven exciting young homegrown talent emerging.  Puckett, Hrbek, Gaetti, Viola plus Brunansky (acquired in a trade) were absolute stalwarts in the lineup ESPECIALLY in 1986.  In 1986, between Puckett, Gaetti, Hrbek and Brunansky; these men played in 161, 157, 149, 157 (respectively).  Then you had Lombardozzi and Gagne both playing 156 games.  ALL of these guys were all aged between 25 and 27.  His point is this team has guys even older, been here a number of years already, and we need to start making decisions about them.  He mentioned 2029.  He's basically saying "is this guy part of the plan for 2029 or not?"

You're right, I'm not getting the point. The Twins have "proven exciting young homegrown talent emerging" right now. Isn't that an argument in favor of investing and building around them? The Twins currently have multiple veteran frontline starters, plus a back-to-back All Star CF, under contract. Why are we worrying about 2029? 

[TheLeviathan]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Spend in free agency on the areas where the value is highest and the downside risk is lowest. That’s a position player, not a closer. The Twins need to be developing relievers, not buying them at retail prices.

The top reliever contracts are nearly all disasters: Edwin Diaz, Devin Williams, Tyler Rogers, Jordan Hicks, Tanner Scott, Ryan Helsley, Pete Fairbanks, Carlos Estevez.

Small budget teams shouldn’t pay $15M for 50 innings of baseball.

What position players are you trying to get from this FA group that have high value and low risk?

[ewen21]

31 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

You're right, I'm not getting the point. The Twins have "proven exciting young homegrown talent emerging" right now. Isn't that an argument in favor of investing and building around them? The Twins currently have multiple veteran frontline starters, plus a back-to-back All Star CF, under contract. Why are we worrying about 2029? 

YOu say the Twins have "proven exciting young homegrown talent emerging" right now.  Remember, we are comparing this to what we already know happened in 1986.  Do you see a set lineup where 7 of the 9 players play in 143 games or more?  Do we have a young starting pitcher like Viola right now who won 18 games the two years prior?  Do we have a veteran as good as Blyleven to throw out there?  What are you talking about, man?

 

And, we are not "worrying about 2029" it is more like we are not worried about 2027 or 2028 because it is about time to start moving guys.  We have seen enough.  YOu have a different, more optimistic view.  That is fine with me.   

[Blyleven2011]

9 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Adding Bednar might get them to the 80 win threshold next season. They have 99 problems and a closer is only one of them.

And everyone is counting on T . P. To solve those problems that JP and D.P. Created , can T.P. Solve at least half of those 99 problems …

JP and DP Really allowed falvey to create these problems and TP says zoll is staying , I don’t know exactly if he’s on the right track yet , I guess we have to wait and see on Zoll one more year …

[LastOnePicked]

7 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

Read: not Josh Bell.  

All good points. You're on fire lately. But I do think they could have gotten a nice lottery-ticket prospect for Bell this year. Poor guy's always got his bags packed - he's probably stunned he finished the whole season here.

[LastOnePicked]

1 hour ago, ewen21 said:

it is more like we are not worried about 2027 or 2028 because it is about time to start moving guys.  We have seen enough.  YOu have a different, more optimistic view.  That is fine with me.   

I don't have an optimistic view at all and even I think they have to go for it this year. They made their bed - time to see this "win now" idea through. A few good contracts could maybe make just enough difference.

[thelanges5]

Bednar can close, Lowe can play 2B and bat 4th, extend at least one of Keasch/Jenkins/Culpepper. Put your money where your mouth is Tom.