Which Twins Players Are Playing Their Last Games in Minnesota?

[chpettit19]

42 minutes ago, Coach said:

Do we really want to play roulette with the DH?  What happens when of the four mentioned goes down?  Batting DH is not necessarily a "breather". but can take a fielding player out of their rhythm. Bell is the consummate DH.  Bell was also in the top three of almost every hitting category for the Twins.  For his production, he was very affordable.  Also, he is a clubhouse guy. 

"In the top three of almost every hitting category for the Twins" is not a high bar to clear. It's why this team has been bad more than good for a while. He's not a good enough hitter to be a DH.

Fangraphs has 17 qualified hitters who were primarily DHs. Josh Bell is number 15 in wRC+ at 106. He's barely an above average hitter for any position. Having him as a DH is not how you build a successful team. Having him as one of your top 3 hitters is not how you build a successful team. It's why this team is never good.

[The Great Hambino]

4 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

I have a hard time dumping Ober when we have so many question marks on the pitching staff.  Even with all of his question marks.

They need to decide that 2027 is being used to chart the path forward for the team.  If they do - and they deal Lopez, Ryan, Larnach, etc. - then I think you bring Ober back just as insurance.

I think they can retain Kremer OR Ober, not Kremer AND Ober

You can't have a competitive plan based around the ascendence of young, minimum-salaried starting pitching, and then have two guys being paid arb-3 prices (let's say $7-$8MM each) that must be kept in the back of your rotation.   And it's easy to see a world where they become the 2027 version of Archer and Bundy weighing down 40% of the rotation

Either open the slot up for competition among the young guys (who also retain the flexibility to be shuttled between Mpls and St Paul based on performance and health as needed), or use the savings toward a true difference-maker that actually raises the ceiling of the rotation, whether acquired via trade or free agency.  Kremer and Ober are redundant since they give you the same thing: reliable innings volume that you wouldn't want to trust starting a playoff game

I'm starting to think that Kremer was targeted to be Ober's replacement for next year.  Given Kremer's recovery from injury and Ober's increasing reliance on smoke and mirrors to get by, I know who I would be betting on to be more reliable next year

But I wouldn't jettison both of them.  We saw just this year how quickly starting pitching depth can evaporate.

 

[Coach]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

"In the top three of almost every hitting category for the Twins" is not a high bar to clear. It's why this team has been bad more than good for a while. He's not a good enough hitter to be a DH.

Fangraphs has 17 qualified hitters who were primarily DHs. Josh Bell is number 15 in wRC+ at 106. He's barely an above average hitter for any position. Having him as a DH is not how you build a successful team. Having him as one of your top 3 hitters is not how you build a successful team. It's why this team is never good.

If you were GM, what are your solutions.

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, The Great Hambino said:

I think they can retain Kremer OR Ober, not Kremer AND Ober

You can't have a competitive plan based around the ascendence of young, minimum-salaried starting pitching, and then have two guys being paid arb-3 prices (let's say $7-$8MM each) that must be kept in the back of your rotation.   And it's easy to see a world where they become the 2027 version of Archer and Bundy weighing down 40% of the rotation

Either open the slot up for competition among the young guys (who also retain the flexibility to be shuttled between Mpls and St Paul based on performance and health as needed), or use the savings toward a true difference-maker that actually raises the ceiling of the rotation, whether acquired via trade or free agency.  Kremer and Ober are redundant since they give you the same thing: reliable innings volume that you wouldn't want to trust starting a playoff game

I'm starting to think that Kremer was targeted to be Ober's replacement for next year.  Given Kremer's recovery from injury and Ober's increasing reliance on smoke and mirrors to get by, I know who I would be betting on to be more reliable next year

But I wouldn't jettison both of them.  We saw just this year how quickly starting pitching depth can evaporate.

 

Agreed with the logic.  In the case of if they deal Lopez and Ryan - which they should - then we have Abel, Zebby, Prielipp, Kremer, Taj, Festa, Rojas.   I think I might still bring back Ober in that scenario if no starting pitching comes back via trade, but I wouldn't die on a hill for it at that point.

[sweetmusicviola16]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

"In the top three of almost every hitting category for the Twins" is not a high bar to clear. It's why this team has been bad more than good for a while. He's not a good enough hitter to be a DH.

Fangraphs has 17 qualified hitters who were primarily DHs. Josh Bell is number 15 in wRC+ at 106. He's barely an above average hitter for any position. Having him as a DH is not how you build a successful team. Having him as one of your top 3 hitters is not how you build a successful team. It's why this team is never good.

Bell typically catches on with teams that aren't considered PO contenders in the off-season. He's quite often not traded to a buyer at the deadline either. The signing of Bell by the Twins was a clear signal to me at least that this team didn't consider itself a contender when they signed him. That's my take anyway.

 

I would like this team to move on from Lewis at this point. But I don't believe it will.

[Patzky]

3 hours ago, Coach said:

Do we really want to play roulette with the DH?  What happens when of the four mentioned goes down?  Batting DH is not necessarily a "breather". but can take a fielding player out of their rhythm. Bell is the consummate DH.  Bell was also in the top three of almost every hitting category for the Twins.  For his production, he was very affordable.  Also, he is a clubhouse guy. 

I'm not anti Bell. I just don't know that they'll spend for him. Each time we have let a role guy go (ahem Ty France) I regret it.

[The Great Hambino]

6 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Agreed with the logic.  In the case of if they deal Lopez and Ryan - which they should - then we have Abel, Zebby, Prielipp, Kremer, Taj, Festa, Rojas.   I think I might still bring back Ober in that scenario if no starting pitching comes back via trade, but I wouldn't die on a hill for it at that point.

I'm operating under the assumption that both Ryan and Lopez are coming back.  I don't think Lopez has a market this offseason given the injury (maybe at the deadline if things break a certain way, but there's a lot of ifs involved in that scenario playing out), and I think if they were gonna trade Ryan, they would've by now.  I'm more inclined to keep both Kremer and Ober if one or both of Lopez and Ryan are moved.

But keeping and acquiring guys like Kremer and Ober is pretty in line with what I see as Falvey's overarching philosophy of raising the floor.  It was needed when he came on board for a franchise that had lost 90+ in 5 of 6 seasons from 2011-2016, but the end result has been consistent win totals in the 70s instead of in the 60s. 

I'm tired of raising the floor.  The time has come to raise the ceiling.

[chpettit19]

38 minutes ago, Coach said:

If you were GM, what are your solutions.

If I were GM, this team would look very different today than it does. Some for the good, some for the bad. But if you're saying I'm a newly hired GM taking over for this offseason, I'm doing what I would've done for this season, turning it over to as much youth as I can. 

That's the challenge, though. If I'd been GM last offseason, I would've completed the rebuild. I would've traded Lopez, Ryan, and Jeffers. I would've had more youth to throw into the lineup and pitching staff now. But they didn't. And they've now limited their options moving forward and put themselves in a much worse spot than they needed to be.

I wouldn't, and I hope they don't, compound the mistake of last offseason this season. I'm not running back the majority of a roster that has proven for years that it isn't good enough and pretending retaining, or adding, Bell level players is the solution. I'm going with youth everywhere I can and looking for actual difference makers to bring in from the outside, if possible. There's only a handful of hitters who could help. But I'd be swinging at Seiya Suzuki level bats on the free agent market, and Yandy Diaz level bats on the trade market, and wouldn't even be considering a Bell level bat.

[Coach]

10 hours ago, TroyVang said:

Why would they not make the QO to Jeffers? Worst case is that you get another year of a great catcher. Would you be overpaying? Maybe, but not by much. And he would likely decline it so he could the long term deal. That means that the Twins that get an extra draft pick. I feel like this is a no-brainer, but I guess it's not.

We've been backed into a corner, that the management painted, we have no choice.

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

I'm not anti Bell. I just don't know that they'll spend for him. Each time we have let a role guy go (ahem Ty France) I regret it.

Beyond France, who else? That’s about it. I don’t regret letting Sano, Santana, Solano, Margot, Gallo etc etc 

[Patzky]

5 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Beyond France, who else? That’s about it. I don’t regret letting Sano, Santana, Solano, Margot, Gallo etc etc 

I think Solano would have been a solid holdover.. maybe 50 50 on Santana.  We just replaced him with France and then Bell.