Tigers 5, Twins 4: Twins Keep It Close But Fall Short in Ryan's Return

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of rian Bradshaw Sevald-Imagn Images

Box Score
Starting Pitcher: Joe Ryan — 4 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 7 K (66 Pitches, 46 Strikes, 69.7%)
Home Runs: Trevor Larnach (12)
Bottom 3 WPA: Josh Bell (-0.30), Royce Lewis (-0.17), Kaelen Culpepper (-0.17)

Win Probability Chart (Via BaseballSavant):

 

 

Joe Ryan's rehab process was seemingly accelerated compared to original plans. Sidelined since August 4th by a glute injury, he made one minor-league start last Tuesday, throwing just three innings, and then tossed a bullpen over the weekend, at which point he was pronounced good to go for Monday's series opener in Detroit.

The stakes were high in this one for the Twins. With their playoff odds down to 3.2% according to FanGraphs, they've run out of runway to get going. To reassert themselves in the race, Minnesota needed to get on a winning streak and they needed it to start now, against a team they trounced twice at home one week ago.

Ryan Jeffers, starting for an eighth consecutive game at catcher, gave the Twins an early lead with an RBI groundout in the top of the first, but Josh Bell grounded into a double play to strand a runner on third. 

In the bottom of the first, Ryan got off to an encouraging start on the mound, striking out leadoff man Colt Keith on three pitches, but gave up a game-tying home run to Kevin McGonigle in the next at-bat. Ryan ran into trouble in the second, loading the bases with one out. Detroit scored twice, on an HBP and then an errant force-out throw to the plate by Royce Lewis. 

But Ryan kept things from spiraling, retiring the next two batters to leave the bases loaded. He cruised through the next two frames before hitting a presumably pre-planned threshold and giving way to piggy-backer Connor Prielipp. Seemingly bumped into this long-relief role by Ryan's return, Prielipp handled the final four innings and pitched well outside of a two-run homer by Riley Greene, which unfortunately proved to be the difference.

Trevor Larnach had drawn the Twins within one on a fourth-inning solo homer before Greene answered with his two-run shot in the fifth, putting the Tigers up 5-2. Minnesota would rally for a comeback bid in the sixth, with Walker Jenkins delivering a clutch two-run double to pull them within one. It was an awesome way for the rookie to snap an 0-for-16 slump.

 

Luke Keaschall and Brooks Lee followed with back-to-back walks, but unfortunately Kody Clemens left the bases full, taking strike three right down the pipe from Troy Melton on a 1-2 count. He was looking for a breaking ball and consequently watched a fastball sail right over the plate. 

From there the Tigers bullpen took care of business, with four relievers combining to hold Minnesota scoreless in the final 3 ⅓ innings. The Twins generated a little hope against closer Kenley Jansen in the ninth when Clemens drew a leadoff walk and Jeffers followed by driving a pitch to deep center, but unfortunately his 411-foot fly was tracked down near the wall by Max Clark. It would've been a home run in more than half of MLB parks, according to StatCast. From there, Bell ended the ninth inning like he ended the first: a GIDP. He leads the team with 17 and no one else has more than 10.

Their fourth loss in five games leaves the Twins at 68-76, with their postseason odds now down to 2.3%. The contention dream is all but dead. 

In a tough game like this, we can take solace in the big slump-busting hit from Jenkins, and the generally promising return to action for Ryan, whose average fastball velocity (94.0 MPH) was actually up slightly from his season norm (93.4 MPH). There was a little rust in play but he really only gave up one hard-hit ball in the outing.

Tomorrow it'll be Dean Kremer facing off against right-hander Drew Anderson in a 5:40 PM CT start as the Twins look to even the series.

Notes:

• Ryan's first three pitches of the day clocked at 94.2, 95.2 and 95.1 MPH. It was a bit of a statement after his relatively low velo in last week's Triple-A rehab start raised eyebrows.
• Lee stole his eighth base, which is actually a shockingly high total for such a slow player. Keaschall stole his 17th base, which is less surprising. 
• The Twins lineup went 1-for-10 with RISP and stranded 10 on base in the one-run loss. Another game that reeks of missed opportunity.

Postgame Interview: 

 

Bullpen Usage Chart:

 

View full article

[Saxophone Joe]

Mid-March 2026: "Babe, let's get Twins TV this season," she said. "It'll be fun!" 

Me, trying to get through the season's final three weeks: 

 

[mikelink45]

It's time to stop with the attaboys. Showing Spirit. Having a good effort, trying really hard, just doesn't matter. Either when or we lose. If we've given up on our potential for wild card. I guess we can continue to to just pat people on their backs 

[Saxophone Joe]

Jeffers' near-homer reminded me of the Pittsburgh game when we came back from 7 runs down only for Arcia to just miss a homer that would've given us a lead in the 9th.  

 

[LastOnePicked]

"Their fourth loss in five games leaves the Twins at 68-76, with their postseason odds now down to 2.3%. The contention dream is all but dead."

C'mon now. They are still leading the league in giving it their all.

[thelanges5]

Gleeman:

Twins are now 12-21 since August 1.

August/September winning percentage:
This season — .364
Last season — .352

No fire sale this year 😢

[PuckettPond]

Lets hope for new fresh faces on next year's roster. Change is needed as bad talent does not get better with time. Buxton needs his surgery now not later.

[JADBP]

oh come on.....the Twins website news is shouting:

"Urgency ratcheting up for Twins in do-or-die stretch"

OK. . .  it might be a little over-optimistic, but, here, 2.3% chance means there is still a chance!

Personally, I say that the Twins are dead for this year...a year badly mismanaged by Zoll......

[mnfireman]

No mention of Clemens off-line relay throw? Or Larnach dropping a foul ball where the batter eventually walks? If those two plays are executed the 2nd inning is over and no runs score, Ryan only throws 9 pitches in the inning instead of 26, and Lewis' terrible throwing error to HP never happens.  It's also still a 1-1 game.

These defensive lapses matter just as much as the 1-10 with RISP, actually a little more today.

[MeleMouth]

"Ryan's first three pitches of the day clocked at 94.2, 95.2 and 95.1 MPH. It was a bit of a statement after his relatively low velo in last week's Triple-A rehab start raised eyebrows."

Great! Now trade him for what you can get ASAP.

[Saxophone Joe]

3 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Or Larnach dropping a foul ball where the batter eventually walks?

Correct me if I'm wrong here, but I think there was one out in that situation, and the runner on third probably tags up and scores if Larnach catches that.

But, yes, to your point: the defense did Ryan no favors in those innings. 

[RpR]

[mnfireman]

7 minutes ago, Saxophone Joe said:

Correct me if I'm wrong here, but I think there was one out in that situation, and the runner on third probably tags up and scores if Larnach catches that.

But, yes, to your point: the defense did Ryan no favors in those innings. 

No runner on 3B if Clemens executes the relay throw...

Also it was shallow enough the runner may not have tagged

[RpR]

2 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

No runner on 3B if Clemens executes the relay throw...

Also it was shallow enough the runner may not have tagged

IF-IF-IF , if is a conjunction that introduces a possibility, i.e. wishful thinking.

[Saxophone Joe]

Just now, RpR said:

 wishful thinking.

Pretty much sums up the season. 

[Saxophone Joe]

7 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Also it was shallow enough the runner may not have tagged

The word is out on our outfielders (especially one who's sliding to make a catch) and, well, our catchers, too: Run, run, RUN! 

[mnfireman]

2 minutes ago, RpR said:

IF-IF-IF , if is a conjunction that introduces a possibility, i.e. wishful thinking.

Understood. The comment was referring to a previous comment about executing on defense, not a strong point the last couple of seasons.

[Parfigliano]

27 minutes ago, JADBP said:

oh come on.....the Twins website news is shouting:

"Urgency ratcheting up for Twins in do-or-die stretch"

OK. . .  it might be a little over-optimistic, but, here, 2.3% chance means there is still a chance!

Personally, I say that the Twins are dead for this year...a year badly mismanaged by Zoll......

Hopefully Zoll and his people are gone immediately after the last out on 9/27/26.

[mnfireman]

1 minute ago, Saxophone Joe said:

The word is out on our outfielders (especially one who's sliding to make a catch) and, well, our catchers, too: Run, run, RUN! 

Yes, the fact that Larnach slid may have allowed the runner to score, But that runner would not have been there if Clemens executes the relay throw. Defense has not been a strong point with this team for a several seasons now, and that has cost them many games.

[mnfireman]

7 minutes ago, RpR said:

IF-IF-IF , if is a conjunction that introduces a possibility, i.e. wishful thinking.

[Patzky]

Meaningful baseball for me until the season ends looks like..

Finding out if Keaschall is indeed the optimal leadoff batter and if Culpeper is the number two.

Enjoying the last few weeks of Ryan Jeffers and Trevor Larnach in Twins uniform.

Seeing if Derek Shelton tweaks his strategy for lineups or if plug and play is his M.O. Similar the called to the bullpen.

Watching Yoendry Gomez solidify his hold on the closer spot, and Jeff Hoffman get comfortable as a Twin. They'll both be integral in 2027.  Is Minter getting loose?

 

[mnfireman]

30 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

No mention of Clemens off-line relay throw? Or Larnach dropping a foul ball where the batter eventually walks? If those two plays are executed the 2nd inning is over and no runs score, Ryan only throws 9 pitches in the inning instead of 26, and Lewis' terrible throwing error to HP never happens.  It's also still a 1-1 game.

These defensive lapses matter just as much as the 1-10 with RISP, actually a little more today.

All these misplays were in the second inning. Additionally, Ryan hit two batters on the first pitch of the PA. Lack of execution has really hurt this team.

[DJL44]

8 games under with 18 to play. Their only shot is to go 14-4 or better. I wouldn’t bet on any team in baseball to go 14-4. 75 wins looks likely.

[Saxophone Joe]

3 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

 Lack of execution has really hurt this team.

Speaking of execution: I didn't notice it at the time, because I was so bummed it wasn't a homer, but should Clemens have tagged up on Jeffers' flyout to get in scoring position and eliminate a double-play ball?

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, Saxophone Joe said:

Speaking of execution: I didn't notice it at the time, because I was so bummed it wasn't a homer, but should Clemens have tagged up on Jeffers' flyout to get in scoring position and eliminate a double-play ball?

No, it was not certain to be caught. If it gets over the fielder he could score but he needs to get to 2B.

[Saxophone Joe]

Only the Twins would have both: 

1) One of the AL's better RISP averages overall this season

AND

2) The fifth highest percentage of solo home runs in all of baseball. 

[mnfireman]

20 minutes ago, Saxophone Joe said:

Speaking of execution: I didn't notice it at the time, because I was so bummed it wasn't a homer, but should Clemens have tagged up on Jeffers' flyout to get in scoring position and eliminate a double-play ball?

Yes, Culpepper has been doing so consistently for 2 or 3 weeks

[Saxophone Joe]

48 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

No, it was not certain to be caught. If it gets over the fielder he could score but he needs to get to 2B.

Fair points. I'd have to look at the replay again, but it kinda looked like a hit that was either going to be caught or go over the wall. 

[mnfireman]

16 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

No, it was not certain to be caught. If it gets over the fielder he could score but he needs to get to 2B.

Yes it was, fly balls were dying out there all day. Yes, we would have been upset if he only made 3B on a double (if it fell), but with how the ball was carrying today, staying close to 1B and tagging would have been the right decision.

[darwin22]

46 minutes ago, Saxophone Joe said:

Speaking of execution: I didn't notice it at the time, because I was so bummed it wasn't a homer, but should Clemens have tagged up on Jeffers' flyout to get in scoring position and eliminate a double-play ball?

Absolutely 100% agreed!  Not sure if that totally falls on Clemens or 1B coach Sizemore, but I was saying that exact thing.  It was a deep fly ball--not a line drive to the gap!  Another blunder on top of other mental issues today.  Brutal.