Can Carson Tinney Be the Next Ryan Jeffers?

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins were in position to take one of the draft’s top prospects when they used the third overall pick in the 2026 MLB Draft on catcher Vahn Lackey. Then they doubled down on the position with their very next pick, selecting Texas catcher Carson Tinney with the 43rd overall pick.

Drafting two catchers that early wasn't about redundancy. It was about conviction. Minnesota believes both players have the talent to become impact major leaguers, and while Lackey entered the draft as one of the most polished catchers available, Tinney represents a different type of investment. His offensive upside is obvious, but the Twins believe there's considerably more to unlock behind the plate.

If that sounds familiar, it's because the organization has already traveled this road once before.

A Familiar Development Story

Ryan Jeffers entered professional baseball with questions about whether he could stick behind the plate. The offensive tools were never in doubt.

Across three collegiate seasons, Jeffers slashed .323/.445/.620 (1.064) while posting an OPS above 1.000 in each of those years. However, he hadn't received extensive coaching as a catcher, making his defensive development a priority once he joined the Twins organization. The results speak for themselves. Jeffers grew into a reliable major league catcher while maintaining the offensive impact that made him an attractive draft pick.

Tinney arrives with a remarkably similar profile. After spending his first two seasons at Notre Dame, Tinney transferred to Texas and became one of the nation's most dangerous hitters. He hit .326/.478/.688 (1.165) over three seasons while launching 42 home runs, including 22 during his final collegiate campaign.

Like Jeffers before him, Tinney's bat is already advanced. Like Jeffers, the Twins see defensive improvements that can elevate his overall value.

Best Player Available

When assistant general manager Sean Johnson joined Inside Twins to recap Minnesota's draft class, he explained that selecting a second catcher wasn't part of a predetermined strategy.

"So, we had stacked the board the way we liked it. When we got to that range, Carson was definitely in play. And I think I say it every year, every scouting director says it, we're gonna take the best guy available."

"And so that was, that rings true. We thought he was the best position player on the board. We think we can turn him into a real catcher at the big-league level. He's got tremendous makeup, desire. He hasn't caught, really, his whole life. So, there's some stuff to unlock there for sure."

That belief mirrors the organization's philosophy with Jeffers several years ago. Rather than viewing Tinney as a finished product, the Twins see a player whose defensive ceiling is much higher than what he showed in college.

More Than Just Power

Tinney's offensive profile extends beyond tape-measure home runs. Johnson highlighted the complete package the Twins believe they're acquiring.

"And then offensively, the guy did as much damage with the ball as almost anybody in the draft. You know, he's, he hit in a great lineup at Texas this year. Hits the ball extremely hard. Takes great at-bats. Really, really nice walk rate to kind of support. He's not just a power first guy."

"But when he hits it, he hits the ball extremely hard. And a really good foundation to catch. He can really throw." 

The combination of patience, power, and arm strength gives the Twins multiple reasons to believe Tinney can develop into an everyday player. His defensive work is simply the next phase of that development.

Betting on Makeup

Player development is rarely just about physical tools. For the Twins, Tinney's willingness to improve may be one of his biggest assets.

"We think we can do even more with his receiving,” said Johnson. “And again, like the makeup is the thing you're going to get into there once again. He's going to work at all the things that RPD is going to offer him once he signs." 

That comment stands out because it echoes what the organization valued in Jeffers years ago. Strong leadership, work ethic, and coachability can often determine whether a player reaches his ceiling. The Twins clearly believe Tinney possesses those qualities.

Similar, But Not Identical

Naturally, comparisons to Jeffers surfaced almost immediately. Johnson understands why.

"They're somewhat similar. I think we had similar thoughts on Ryan. I don't like to compare the two of them directly. But Ryan needed… some work with his receiving. We thought his swing was in a good spot."

"So, you can immediately kind of connect the two together in that way. But both had really good makeups, really good leaders on their team, carried their clubs, different leagues, obviously. So, I think we have similar feelings there. But I think as far as Carson's concerned, we think we can turn him into a real catcher."

Johnson stopped short of labeling Tinney the next Jeffers, but the similarities are difficult to ignore. Both entered pro ball as offense-first catchers. Both needed refinement as receivers. Both were respected leaders with strong makeup. Most importantly, both joined an organization confident in its ability to develop catchers.

The Twins drafted Tinney because Jeffers proved this development path can work. Minnesota has spent years building one of baseball's most respected player development systems, and Jeffers became one of the best examples of that philosophy.

Tinney still has a long way to go before anyone should expect him to follow the same career trajectory. Prospect development is rarely linear, and plenty of talented college hitters never make the defensive leap required to become major league catchers.

Still, if the Twins are looking for a blueprint, they don't have to look very far. They've already turned one offense-first college catcher into a productive big league regular. Now they'll spend the next several years trying to do it again with Tinney.

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Can Tinney become the next Jeffers? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Bangkok Twins Fan]

I have to admit that I was underwhelmed, if not perplexed by the Twins picking Tinney at that spot in the draft, but the more I read about him and his makeup, and character, and of course the potential, the more I'm starting to think that it just might have been a good pick after all. Sure, time will tell, but after reading this informative article, I'm feeling much more positive. Thank you. 

[olerud]

Doubtful

 

[Andy MacPhail]

The simularity between Jeffers & Tinney is that they're both unpolished. IMO, Tinney has a stronger arm & is more athletic than Jeffers. The biggest difference is that Jeffers had Tanner Swanson & Tinney will not. After Swanson, Twins have continue to show confidence that they can develop catchers, but have fallen very short. Firing Conger is the step in the right direction but haven't shown me anything positive that they are doing anything to solve this problem. Until they do, I'll continue to be leary.

[arby58]

35 minutes ago, olerud said:

Doubtful

 

He can hit the ball hard (and a long way). Even if he can’t stick at catcher, the Twins aren’t overflowing with young power hitters at 1B.

[rdehring]

Interesting question, Cody.

On draft day I had heard all the talk about Lackey and knew nothing about the other 20 players picked by the Twins.  Was excited they got Lackey.  As for the others, zero, nada, zip.

My first glance at this kid left me more than disappointed.  The more I hear about him and after your excellent presentation I am more encouraged.  Thanks.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I think multiple things can be true and that’s what sums up the Tinney pick.  I think Tinney was the path the Twins were going to take if one of the shortstops fell. They can state he was at the top of the board, but what they didn’t state was they wanted to capture significant savings at this pick to sign a high school pitcher later. Tinney signed at a 400k discount.  So I’m sure he was high on the board, the stats which I’ll get into later were ridiculous. The Twins have also gotten sniped on catching in past drafts - Bodine and Taitn Gray last year.  So getting an elite talent at a discount was likely the best option with the draft strategy they wanted to deploy.  To me although it wasn’t set in stone this was a path they were going to take 90% of the time.  
 

Tinney if he can be average as a defensive catcher, will be an offensive force. If he can have power even with the possibility of a lower batting average that is an incredibly valuable asset.  Go look at the stats though in the last 2 years other than a higher strikeout rate what is the difference between him and Cholowsky?  Tinney played this last year in the better conference and had better stats.  You compare against Jeffers and Tinney is a much more polished and powerful hitter than Jeffers was in college. Granted Jeffers was considered a massive reach. Tinney is viewed as a slight reach. 
 

Yes there is some concerns on chase, but then the question is defense. Similar to Culpepper or let’s say Billy Amick and of course Jeffers.  Tinney like them had much better defensive ratings in his last year. With the potential for continued improvement. Tinney has a rocket of an arm so it’s going to be working on pitch framing, blocking, calling games and pop up times.  The biggest thing is Tunney’s drive to get better and that he wants to stay at catcher.  Both Tinney and and Lapour seem to have an intensity and drive to compete and get better.  So there is a possibility he has to switch to 1st, but in my opinion his rankings were valued as a 1st baseman. So if the defense at catcher improves he is an excellent catcher to tandem with Lackey if it were to work out. It’s also insurance if Lackey doesn’t pan out.  
 

All in all I really really like the pick. 

[Dman]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I think multiple things can be true and that’s what sums up the Tinney pick.  I think Tinney was the path the Twins were going to take if one of the shortstops fell. They can state he was at the top of the board, but what they didn’t state was they wanted to capture significant savings at this pick to sign a high school pitcher later. Tinney signed at a 400k discount.  So I’m sure he was high on the board, the stats which I’ll get into later were ridiculous. The Twins have also gotten sniped on catching in past drafts - Bodine and Taitn Gray last year.  So getting an elite talent at a discount was likely the best option with the draft strategy they wanted to deploy.  To me although it wasn’t set in stone this was a path they were going to take 90% of the time.  
 

Tinney if he can be average as a defensive catcher, will be an offensive force. If he can have power even with the possibility of a lower batting average that is an incredibly valuable asset.  Go look at the stats though in the last 2 years other than a higher strikeout rate what is the difference between him and Cholowsky?  Tinney played this last year in the better conference and had better stats.  You compare against Jeffers and Tinney is a much more polished and powerful hitter than Jeffers was in college. Granted Jeffers was considered a massive reach. Tinney is viewed as a slight reach. 
 

Yes there is some concerns on chase, but then the question is defense. Similar to Culpepper or let’s say Billy Amick and of course Jeffers.  Tinney like them had much better defensive ratings in his last year. With the potential for continued improvement. Tinney has a rocket of an arm so it’s going to be working on pitch framing, blocking, calling games and pop up times.  The biggest thing is Tunney’s drive to get better and that he wants to stay at catcher.  Both Tinney and and Lapour seem to have an intensity and drive to compete and get better.  So there is a possibility he has to switch to 1st, but in my opinion his rankings were valued as a 1st baseman. So if the defense at catcher improves he is an excellent catcher to tandem with Lackey if it were to work out. It’s also insurance if Lackey doesn’t pan out.  
 

All in all I really really like the pick. 

That's a nice writeup!  I don't have much to add except to echo that Jeffers does not have a particularly strong arm and it's generally something you have or don't have. A catcher having a strong arm can really help control the run game which is so important especially at the end of the games when getting your guy(s) to second can be the difference between winning and losing.  Tinney has that kind of arm and he can be taught to frame, block etc.  I think he has a chance to be a better catcher than Jeffers defensively.

We'll have to wait and see about the bat, but you bring up some great points as to why he could\should be just as successful if not more so than Jeffers.  Right now it's all conjecture and hype, but given he signed for under slot I am liking this pick more and more.

 

[bean5302]

I've read very little on Tinney's defensive profile as everybody seems to focus on the potential swing and miss and the 70+ grade raw power forgetting he plays catcher at all.

Prospect porch calls Tinney a good framer, and the one thing which is universally mentioned is he has a strong arm. https://prospectporch.com/players/carson-tinney.html

When it comes to the pop time, a Texas baseball fan site has it listed at 1.80 sec, and his coach also praised his framing. https://www.burntorangenation.com/texas-longhorns-baseball/100337/carson-tinney-texas-longhorns-catchers

Can Tinney improve at receiving? I have no doubt. Does that mean people should assume Tinney is woeful behind the plate like Jeffers was when he was drafted? I don't think I've seen a reason to accept that.

[chpettit19]

5 hours ago, Andy MacPhail said:

The simularity between Jeffers & Tinney is that they're both unpolished. IMO, Tinney has a stronger arm & is more athletic than Jeffers. The biggest difference is that Jeffers had Tanner Swanson & Tinney will not. After Swanson, Twins have continue to show confidence that they can develop catchers, but have fallen very short. Firing Conger is the step in the right direction but haven't shown me anything positive that they are doing anything to solve this problem. Until they do, I'll continue to be leary.

Isn't Mr Swanson with the Yankees organization now? The org everyone is talking about needing catching so badly? I'm certainly not arguing the Twins have been good at developing catching, but I'm not sure why Swanson is pointed to as some catcher whisperer. The Twins have been awful at developing in general. Catcher isn't some specific weak spot. In fact, almost every team is bad at developing catching. It's why it's such an in-demand position and backups have 15-year careers.

[Andy MacPhail]

27 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Isn't Mr Swanson with the Yankees organization now? The org everyone is talking about needing catching so badly? I'm certainly not arguing the Twins have been good at developing catching, but I'm not sure why Swanson is pointed to as some catcher whisperer. The Twins have been awful at developing in general. Catcher isn't some specific weak spot. In fact, almost every team is bad at developing catching. It's why it's such an in-demand position and backups have 15-year careers.

IMO, my friend, is that too many teams focus on drafting catchers that can hit & hope they can improve their defense. They may improve their defense, but if they fail to hit; they're cooked. The biggest problem with NYY main catchers is that they aren't hitting.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Isn't Mr Swanson with the Yankees organization now? The org everyone is talking about needing catching so badly? I'm certainly not arguing the Twins have been good at developing catching, but I'm not sure why Swanson is pointed to as some catcher whisperer. The Twins have been awful at developing in general. Catcher isn't some specific weak spot. In fact, almost every team is bad at developing catching. It's why it's such an in-demand position and backups have 15-year careers.

Other than Jeffers we had invested almost zero into the position the last 10 years. Diaw a 3rd rounder, then a bunch of mid to late round prospects. It’s not like the organization was drafting immense talent and not capitalizing on it. 

[bean5302]

14 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Other than Jeffers we had invested almost zero into the position the last 10 years. Diaw a 3rd rounder, then a bunch of mid to late round prospects. It’s not like the organization was drafting immense talent and not capitalizing on it. 

Falvey was once again the smartest guy in the world when it came to developing catchers. He drafted non-catchers who played a game or two there once as true "catchers" like there was a market inefficiency to exploit. That was after he decided he was smarter than everybody else in general and the talent level at round 10 was the same as round 2.