Twins Daily's Top-20 Prospects Gets a Post-Draft Shakeup

[D.C Twins]

Houston above Rodriguez all day....

[Steve Lein]

1 hour ago, rdehring said:

Add me to those who believe Wachsmann is to low, way to low.  The Twins just told us what they think about him, when they paid him $1,200,000 over slot. 

TD doesn't have all the dollars posted yet, but it sure seems like we may see something I don't recall the Twins ever doing, going over their pool of dollars.  You are reporting all the players have signed without dollars for four of the top 11.  You show they have $1,382,000 remaining, yet, the slots for the four players yet to report bonuses is around $1,800,000.  Maybe they will end up right around budget, but to do so someone is going to have to come in real cheap. 

They won't go over their pool of dollars, at least not into the territory where any penalty happens. They are one of the teams that never has. Multiple selections toward the end of the bonus pool rounds were made to save money so they could fit in Wachsmann's number.

[Fatbat]

2 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Houston and Quick over ERod - at least the first two have a chance to be major leaguers….with the Twins at least.

Wouldn't be surprised if ERod is traded over the next week.

He had surgery 7 weeks ago. Can he even be traded?

[amjgt]

7 minutes ago, Steve Lein said:

They won't go over their pool of dollars, at least not into the territory where any penalty happens. They are one of the teams that never has. Multiple selections toward the end of the bonus pool rounds were made to save money so they could fit in Wachsmann's number.

Not to belabor the frustration of not maxing out the bonus pool all the way to where the penalties switch from financial to draft penalties, but it's just so short sighted.

You've got a mechanism that gives you a long term ROI of 2.5x (I'm making up numbers here) and every year you're told how much you can spend and get that 2.5x return. Then they say... "well, we'll let you spend a bit more, but you can only get a 1.75x long term return on that investment" and the Twins are always just.... "nah, we're good"

 

[Fatbat]

14 minutes ago, Steve Lein said:

They won't go over their pool of dollars, at least not into the territory where any penalty happens. They are one of the teams that never has. Multiple selections toward the end of the bonus pool rounds were made to save money so they could fit in Wachsmann's number.

Isnt there about $100k wiggle room? If, then $350k isn’t that much to short 4/5 guys….

[Mike Sixel]

Which player saw the largest drop in projected WAR for the 2027 season during the first half of the season?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

Eduardo Tait

[amjgt]

4 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Isnt there about $100k wiggle room? If, then $350k isn’t that much to short 4/5 guys….

5% overage is allowed, but there is a 75% tax on all of those dollars spent, 

So, the Twins could've spent around $850k above their pool money on draft picks, but it would have cost them and additional $640k to do so.

Going beyond the 5% puts you into draft pick penalties which a) is crazy, and b) no team has ever done.

[Fatbat]

32 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

Houston above Rodriguez all day....

Houston is a solid #4

[Fatbat]

20 minutes ago, amjgt said:

5% overage is allowed, but there is a 75% tax on all of those dollars spent, 

So, the Twins could've spent around $850k above their pool money on draft picks, but it would have cost them and additional $640k to do so.

Going beyond the 5% puts you into draft pick penalties which a) is crazy, and b) no team has ever done.

Good info! Im sure that when all the contracts are disclosed, the penalties will be minimal!!

[bean5302]

Most of the ranking falls within reason to me. Except Emma (who I wouldn't have in the top 10). Gabriel Gonzalez is probably not a top 20 prospect and Young is a non-prospect (not top 40), IMHO.

[DataNerd]

57 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Isnt there about $100k wiggle room? If, then $350k isn’t that much to short 4/5 guys….

Its 5%, so ~800k if the Twins were to max it.  Less than a third of teams fully max out their overage.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Dman said:

I might be the only one but I'd have Lackey at number 1.  He looks like the better runner.  The stronger arm. At least as much power as Jenkins and will play arguably the most important position on the field. I think if just based on projection the ceiling is a bit higher on Lackey IMO.

Still there are a lot of things in Jenkins favor.  He is the same age as lackey and already at AAA and doing well there.  Even at such a young age he has a balanced batting line at the highest level in the minors. Jenkin's looks like the stronger bat moving forward and being young for the level and having the kind of success he is having bodes well for star potential.  There's a lot to like.  The order is just preference at this point as they are so close.  The nice thing is we have two or three top 50 players in the system right now.

I agree with the rankings for the most part except for Soto.  I was so excited when they picked him. Now I have concerns his arm\shoulder will never hold up.  I think until healthy again I'd drop him further down the list.  Everything else looks good to me with Tait in danger of dropping with the poor plate discipline. Right now he is young for the level and barely holding his own.  Hopefully he can make more improvements.

It's a really nice system but won't be top 10 for long as guys will be graduating if not in 2026 for sure in 2027.  

I wouldn't put Lackey ahead of Jenkins yet, because, as you say, Jenkins is doing it in AAA already. But I have those 2 on a separate tier from everyone else. Emma is in his own world because the injuries are just so numerous it's hard to judge him at all. But, for me, it's Tier 1- Jenkins/Lackey, Tier 2- Culpepper, then everyone else.

[chpettit19]

For those who care, Keith Law just released his updated top 70. The Twins on the list are:

19. Jenkins
20. Lackey
31. Emma
53. Culpepper

[Dman]

39 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

For those who care, Keith Law just released his updated top 70. The Twins on the list are:

19. Jenkins
20. Lackey
31. Emma
53. Culpepper

I am surprised that Law has Emma at 31 since he generally is so picky about hitting flaws and ER has some anomalies with the passive approach and swing and miss in zone.  The production has always been there but the Majors really expose any flaws a hitter has.  I like Rodriguez a lot  but wouldn't have him at 31, but that is just my opinion. The injuries also cloud the ups and downs of a full season as it wears players down.  I love that he has 4 Twins in essentially the top 50.  Maybe we can finally have a another star player or two?

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Dman said:

I am surprised that Law has Emma at 31 since he generally is so picky about hitting flaws and ER has some anomalies with the passive approach and swing and miss in zone.  The production has always been there but the Majors really expose any flaws a hitter has.  I like Rodriguez a lot  but wouldn't have him at 31, but that is just my opinion. The injuries also cloud the ups and downs of a full season as it wears players down.  I love that he has 4 Twins in essentially the top 50.  Maybe we can finally have a another star player or two?

My exact thoughts. Was very surprised to see him on the list at all. There's definitely some talent in the system. Will be fun to watch as it develops and see if any of these guys can get over the MLB hump into stardom. Little Lackey/Jenkins combo in the 2/3 holes of the lineup could be really fun if things turn out for them. 

[Mike Sixel]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2026-pre-trade-deadline-top-100-prospects-update/

They love this system, and didn't even have Emma in the top 100....

[weitz41]

The current top 15 looks like by far the best I've seen in a long long time. Most are in AA or higher and the ones that aren't have big upside. I realize some won't work out. But there is a lot of quality and quantity.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Dman said:

I am surprised that Law has Emma at 31 since he generally is so picky about hitting flaws and ER has some anomalies with the passive approach and swing and miss in zone.  The production has always been there but the Majors really expose any flaws a hitter has.  I like Rodriguez a lot  but wouldn't have him at 31, but that is just my opinion. The injuries also cloud the ups and downs of a full season as it wears players down.  I love that he has 4 Twins in essentially the top 50.  Maybe we can finally have a another star player or two?

Law goes to a ton of baseball games, watches baseball all the time, and talks with scouts and organization people on a regular basis. His evaluations can be taken with a grain of salt, but he has seen these guys play and makes his living comparing players from around baseball.

Who among the folks on Twins Daily has watched these players dozens of times via milb.com much less is going to minor league games? A few of us go to a game once in a while or watch the Twins minor league affiliates play often enough but we are not  spending nearly as much time viewing prospects as Keith Law. Watching video highlights or looking over data is a very narrow viewpoint compared with watching or going to the games.

I can agree that Emmanuel Rodriguez has his flaws and missing so much development time has been a real downer. There is still talent in EmRod's game. I'm more worried about those endless string of weird injuries than I am about major league pitchers exposing Rodriguez. We will all find out next year if he is not traded.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

4 hours ago, Steve Lein said:

They won't go over their pool of dollars, at least not into the territory where any penalty happens. They are one of the teams that never has. Multiple selections toward the end of the bonus pool rounds were made to save money so they could fit in Wachsmann's number.

Well they proved you wrong Steve.  They are over by 260k so far and counting.   

Really surprised at the following - Lay with full bonus even though technically a senior sign,  Bayles only 45k less than the allotted,  the following with 50k more so far   Burns, Teel and Lane.   Tom showing they are willing to invest in the team.  Its a smart strategy.   They also signed all 21 draftees,  they may have gone over a bit more.  

[Dman]

1 minute ago, tony&rodney said:

Law goes to a ton of baseball games, watches baseball all the time, and talks with scouts and organization people on a regular basis. His evaluations can be taken with a grain of salt, but he has seen these guys play and makes his living comparing players from around baseball.

Who among the folks on Twins Daily has watched these players dozens of times via milb.com much less is going to minor league games? A few of us go to a game once in a while or watch the Twins minor league affiliates play often enough but we are not  spending nearly as much time viewing prospects as Keith Law. Watching video highlights or looking over data is a very narrow viewpoint compared with watching or going to the games.

I can agree that Emmanuel Rodriguez has his flaws and missing so much development time has been a real downer. There is still talent in EmRod's game. I'm more worried about those endless string of weird injuries than I am about major league pitchers exposing Rodriguez. We will all find out next year if he is not traded.

I think Law can get a little prickly at times, but I do love that he is willing to go against consensus on players.  And for as much as I tend to disagree with him on players his evaluations are generally really good.  I have a fair bit of respect for what he says.  That being said he's been wrong his fair share as well.  I was just surprised at how high he had Rodriguez ranked since he is so picky about players.  It's a good thing for us that he has him ranked that high, but Emma has a pretty hefty K rate to overcome at the MLB level.  We'll have to wait and see how that pans out.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

5 hours ago, Dman said:

I might be the only one but I'd have Lackey at number 1.  He looks like the better runner.  The stronger arm. At least as much power as Jenkins and will play arguably the most important position on the field. I think if just based on projection the ceiling is a bit higher on Lackey IMO.

Still there are a lot of things in Jenkins favor.  He is the same age as lackey and already at AAA and doing well there.  Even at such a young age he has a balanced batting line at the highest level in the minors. Jenkin's looks like the stronger bat moving forward and being young for the level and having the kind of success he is having bodes well for star potential.  There's a lot to like.  The order is just preference at this point as they are so close.  The nice thing is we have two or three top 50 players in the system right now.

I agree with the rankings for the most part except for Soto.  I was so excited when they picked him. Now I have concerns his arm\shoulder will never hold up.  I think until healthy again I'd drop him further down the list.  Everything else looks good to me with Tait in danger of dropping with the poor plate discipline. Right now he is young for the level and barely holding his own.  Hopefully he can make more improvements.

It's a really nice system but won't be top 10 for long as guys will be graduating if not in 2026 for sure in 2027.  

Right now the difference in the top prospects should be ceiling.   Yes all players could be a hall of famer, but if you asked baseball executives and prospect analysts between Jenkins and Lackey who has the best chance to be a hall of famer,  I think 90% say Lackey.    Age withstanding which is giving Jenkins a lot of boost and a couple more years of potential stats to add up.   Being an elite catcher defensively and offensively for 8-10 years will all but guarantee you to be in the hall of fame.  

[Dman]

5 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Well they proved you wrong Steve.  They are over by 260k so far and counting.   

Really surprised at the following - Lay with full bonus even though technically a senior sign,  Bayles only 45k less than the allotted,  the following with 50k more so far   Burns, Teel and Lane.   Tom showing they are willing to invest in the team.  Its a smart strategy.   They also signed all 21 draftees,  they may have gone over a bit more.  

Lay didn't get full bonus he got $75,000.  Check out number's here   I am pretty certain Twins will once again be under their allotted pool to spend.  Still like this draft though.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

4 minutes ago, Dman said:

Lay didn't get full bonus he got $75,000.  Check out number's here   I am pretty certain Twins will once again be under their allotted pool to spend.  Still like this draft though.

Well according to the Twinsdaily Tracker they had him at $406,800.  Thats likely the difference.   They have just updated the signing amounts on the MLB site, they hadn't been there even as of this morning.  

https://twinsdaily.com/minnesota-twins-draft-picks/2026/

 

[Dman]

Just now, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Well according to the Twinsdaily Tracker they had him at $406,800.  Thats likely the difference.   

 

YeahI see that.  I think they got that wrong.  Not sure where they got that info from.  Like you I was surprised a senior sign would get slot.  I think that is a mistake.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

3 minutes ago, Dman said:

YeahI see that.  I think they got that wrong.  Not sure where they got that info from.  Like you I was surprised a senior sign would get slot.  I think that is a mistake.

https://www.minnesotasportsfan.com/minnesota-twins/2026-mlb-draft-tracker-complete-results/

Schwerzler has him at $406k also.  I still trust the MLB site more, it makes more sense the way the bonuses broke out.  

[Dman]

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

https://www.minnesotasportsfan.com/minnesota-twins/2026-mlb-draft-tracker-complete-results/

Schwerzler has him at $406k also.  I still trust the MLB site more, it makes more sense the way the bonuses broke out.  

Well someone is wrong.  Usually MLB doesn't put anything out until things are official.  And being he is a senior sign, I am betting on the 75K number.  I bet that is where they got that number though.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

4 minutes ago, Dman said:

Well someone is wrong.  Usually MLB doesn't put anything out until things are official.  And being he is a senior sign, I am betting on the 75K number.  I bet that is where they got that number though.

By my math if he is 75k as what he thinks he is,  The Twins break out to almost exactly even based on what we know.  

[DataNerd]

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

By my math if he is 75k as what he thinks he is,  The Twins break out to almost exactly even based on what we know.  

Yep.  I've got it at $68,400 with only 14th round pick Alec Bouchard unknown.

[arby58]

6 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Why would the Twins sell low on E-Rod? Because he's not very popular in the Twins Daily forums? it's not like they're on the verge of losing him.

Well, they sort of are. He will be out of options next year. Maybe they can get another year, but given their number of strong OF candidates, maybe this is the time to move him along?

 

 

[chpettit19]

38 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Well, they sort of are. He will be out of options next year. Maybe they can get another year, but given their number of strong OF candidates, maybe this is the time to move him along?

 

 

He'll get another option year. If a team values him as a top 50 prospect, I'd certainly be considering trading him for the return that sort of prospect can get. I'd be surprised if anyone is willing to give up that kind of value for him, though. They're in a tough spot with him. Best play is probably to just hold him and see what happens. Definitely don't want to trade him for a rental reliever or something like that and have him end up panning out.