Three Players, Three Picks, Countless Possibilities for the Twins at No. 3

[Cody Christie]

As the countdown to the 2026 MLB Draft continues, most evaluators agree on one thing: nobody truly knows how the first three picks will unfold. That uncertainty is exactly what makes this year's draft so intriguing for the Twins.

In his latest attempt to project the top of the draft, MLB.com draft expert Jim Callis laid out six different scenarios for the first three selections. While there are certainly other possibilities, his projections reinforce the idea that three elite prospects have separated themselves from the rest of the class. The debate centers around three names: UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky, Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey, and prep shortstop Grady Emerson.

For Minnesota, that's a pretty good place to be.

Cholowsky Still Leads the Pack

Callis currently projects the White Sox to select Cholowsky with the first overall pick. That wouldn't qualify as a surprise. Cholowsky has spent much of the draft cycle viewed as the favorite to go No. 1 overall thanks to his polished all-around game, defensive value at shortstop, and offensive upside. He has been the most consistent name atop draft boards for months.

But consistency doesn't necessarily mean certainty. With several weeks remaining before draft night, teams are still gathering information, discussing bonus pool strategies, and determining whether another player might offer more value at the top of the board.

Lackey's Meteoric Rise

If Cholowsky goes first, Callis predicts the Rays would select Lackey with the second overall pick. Few players have boosted their stock more than the Georgia Tech backstop this spring. What began as a strong season evolved into a legitimate argument that Lackey could be the best player available in the entire draft.

Catchers always bring additional risk because of the physical demands of the position, but Lackey's offensive profile and defensive tools have convinced many evaluators that he belongs in the conversation for the first overall selection. In fact, several of Callis' scenarios have Lackey coming off the board before either Cholowsky or Emerson.

Emerson Could Be the Twins' Prize

Under Callis' most likely projection, Minnesota lands Emerson at No. 3 overall. Not long ago, many draft observers believed Emerson would be the favorite to go second overall to Tampa Bay. That's no longer a consensus view, but it illustrates just how fluid the top of this draft remains.

For the Twins, Emerson represents the type of upside teams dream about acquiring near the top of the draft. The prep shortstop has long been viewed as one of the most talented players in the class, and there are still plenty of scenarios where he doesn't make it past the first or second pick.

That's why Minnesota's front office is likely spending more time preparing for multiple outcomes than targeting one specific player.

The Tyler Bell Wild Card

Another factor worth monitoring is Kentucky shortstop Tyler Bell. Callis noted that Bell could be willing to sign for less than slot value if selected within the top five picks. Those types of bonus considerations can dramatically alter draft boards.

If a team believes it can save money early and redistribute those dollars later in the draft, Bell could become an appealing option. Any surprise move involving Bell would create a ripple effect that impacts the prospects available when Minnesota is on the clock.

The Odds Favor Minnesota

Callis assigned probabilities to six potential outcomes involving the first three selections:

• Cholowsky (White Sox), Lackey (Rays), Emerson (Twins): 26%
• Cholowsky (White Sox), Emerson (Rays), Lackey (Twins): 24%
• Emerson (White Sox), Lackey (Rays), Cholowsky (Twins): 21%
• Emerson (White Sox), Cholowsky (Rays), Lackey (Twins): 19%
• Lackey (White Sox), Emerson (Rays), Cholowsky (Twins): 5%
• Lackey (White Sox), Cholowsky (Rays), Emerson (Twins): 5%

From Minnesota's perspective, the math works out quite nicely. Those projections give the Twins roughly a 43% chance of landing Lackey, a 31% chance of selecting Emerson, and a 29% chance of ending up with Cholowsky. When the possible outcomes are the three best players in the draft, those are odds any front office would gladly accept.

A Familiar Situation

This year's draft bears some resemblance to the 2023 draft. That summer, the Twins benefited from the inaugural MLB Draft Lottery, jumping from the 13th pick to the fifth overall selection. The top of that draft featured a clear group of elite prospects, and Minnesota's strategy was simple: wait and take whichever premium talent remained available. The result was Walker Jenkins, who has remained the organization's top prospect ever since.

The Twins could find themselves following a similar blueprint this year. Rather than being locked into one player, Minnesota appears positioned to let the first two picks dictate its decision. With Cholowsky, Lackey, and Emerson all viewed as top-tier talents, the organization may simply select whichever member of that trio is still available.

Draft season often becomes a search for certainty, but this year's class isn't offering much of it at the top. What it is offering, however, is opportunity.

The White Sox and Rays will ultimately determine how the board unfolds, but Minnesota enters the process in an enviable position. Whether it's Cholowsky's polish, Lackey's rising star power, or Emerson's immense upside, the Twins appear likely to walk away with one of the draft's premier talents.

With less than a month until commissioner Rob Manfred steps to the podium, the picture remains cloudy. For the Twins, that's perfectly fine. Sometimes the best draft strategy is letting the talent come to you.

 

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[DocBauer]

There are 5 players that I'm fully intrigued by and OK if the Twins draft any of. The obvious 3 of Cholowsky, Emerson, and Vahn Lackey. But I also really like Flora and prep SS Lombard.

Lombard comes from a baseball family. His father is a very well respected coach with the Tigers, and his older brother is a top prospect with the Yankees. By all reports he's a LEGIT SS with hands, range, and a big arm. He's also got BIG power potential. I believe he runs fairly well, but I'm not sure about top speed. There are some questions about his contact/hit tool, but if he answers that, he could make teams who pass on him look silly. He's AT LEAST a top 10 pick.

Flora is a very, very good looking pitcher. #1 in this draft. But he's not Skenes. But he seems to have a solid floor, and a really good ceiling. Could the Sox or Rays make a move in one of the first 2 spots? I wouldn't be disappointed if the Twins grabbed him at all! But I think he's #4 for a reason. And that reason is the talent of the top 3 is just so damn good.

It starts with the Dirty Sox doesn't it? They've pulled surprises before. I can see a scenario where they really believe in Flora as a front line pitcher that could ready in 2 years. I can also see them falling in love with Vahn Lackey as their catcher of the future that might also be ready within 2 years. But I just don't see how they could pass on Cholowsky. Other than average speed, he's the complete package of defense and offense. He probably debuts in 2028. Some say he could ready late in 2027. His production slipped a little this season compared to 2025, but COME ON! The guy absolutely RAKED. I just don't understand how they could pass, but again, they're known for draft day surprises.

Emerson just FITS with the Rays MO of  young LH bats with talent. And this kid screams a junior version of Bobby Witt Jr. A junior junior, lol. The fit seems almost too perfect for them. BUT, they DID draft a similar player in Bell previously. And Bell is still considered a top 10 talent. The Rays are known to have a great scouting department. Are they still in love with Bell? Or do they see Emerson as perhaps a better version?

Unless the Twins surprise us with Flora or Lombard, both great potential selections, this SHOULD be easy. They pick whoever is "left" between the top 3. "Left" is very much tongue in cheek.

In a world of baseball gods that tend to smile and laugh when Twins top prospects ALWAYS seem to have to endure at least one season of bad injury...why did they ever pick the Twins to be the brunt of their joke anyway...the Dirty Sox would pull out ANOTHER surprise and grab Flora or Vahn Lacky at #1. The Rays would then snag Emerson or Bell because the FIT their profile. The reason I say this is not because there's a SMALL chance this happens, but because a kid with a name like Cholowsky should be a Twin. LOL.

But seriously, the Twins simply can't lose here. ANY of the top 3 probably gives them an immediate top 100 prospect. While it's 3 and not 5, this is similar to 2023 where we got Jenkins. I'm still assuming the first 2 picks go chalk. It just makes sense. So I'm still betting on Vahn Lackey as the Twins selection. But I'm fine with ANY of the top 3.

Considering I can't believe the Sox would pass on Cholowsky, my hunch is Emerson or the rumored Bell is #2. I'd really like Vahn Lackey because I think he offers fulfillment on 2 levels.

1] He's the second best college bat available behind Cholowsky

2] He plays an important defensive position that the Twins are currently short on. (Our catching prospects are recently promoted to AA, or sitting at A+) 

If the Sox and Rays want to give Cholowsky to us gift wrapped, I won't complain a bit. The ONLY SILLY complaint I could POSSIBLY have with Emerson is he'd be a good 3yrs away from his debut. And I'm subject to instant gratification like most of us. But with K-Pepper ready, and Houston looking so very good, should any of us care if Wit Jr junior is our pick and takes 3yrs or so to reach MLB? We just shouldn't. 

 

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, DocBauer said:

There are 5 players that I'm fully intrigued by and OK if the Twins draft any of. The obvious 3 of Cholowsky, Emerson, and Vahn Lackey. But I also really like Flora and prep SS Lombard.

Lombard comes from a baseball family. His father is a very well respected coach with the Tigers, and his older brother is a top prospect with the Yankees. By all reports he's a LEGIT SS with hands, range, and a big arm. He's also got BIG power potential. I believe he runs fairly well, but I'm not sure about top speed. There are some questions about his contact/hit tool, but if he answers that, he could make teams who pass on him look silly. He's AT LEAST a top 10 pick.

Flora is a very, very good looking pitcher. #1 in this draft. But he's not Skenes. But he seems to have a solid floor, and a really good ceiling. Could the Sox or Rays make a move in one of the first 2 spots? I wouldn't be disappointed if the Twins grabbed him at all! But I think he's #4 for a reason. And that reason is the talent of the top 3 is just so damn good.

It starts with the Dirty Sox doesn't it? They've pulled surprises before. I can see a scenario where they really believe in Flora as a front line pitcher that could ready in 2 years. I can also see them falling in love with Vahn Lackey as their catcher of the future that might also be ready within 2 years. But I just don't see how they could pass on Cholowsky. Other than average speed, he's the complete package of defense and offense. He probably debuts in 2028. Some say he could ready late in 2027. His production slipped a little this season compared to 2025, but COME ON! The guy absolutely RAKED. I just don't understand how they could pass, but again, they're known for draft day surprises.

Emerson just FITS with the Rays MO of  young LH bats with talent. And this kid screams a junior version of Bobby Witt Jr. A junior junior, lol. The fit seems almost too perfect for them. BUT, they DID draft a similar player in Bell previously. And Bell is still considered a top 10 talent. The Rays are known to have a great scouting department. Are they still in love with Bell? Or do they see Emerson as perhaps a better version?

Unless the Twins surprise us with Flora or Lombard, both great potential selections, this SHOULD be easy. They pick whoever is "left" between the top 3. "Left" is very much tongue in cheek.

In a world of baseball gods that tend to smile and laugh when Twins top prospects ALWAYS seem to have to endure at least one season of bad injury...why did they ever pick the Twins to be the brunt of their joke anyway...the Dirty Sox would pull out ANOTHER surprise and grab Flora or Vahn Lacky at #1. The Rays would then snag Emerson or Bell because the FIT their profile. The reason I say this is not because there's a SMALL chance this happens, but because a kid with a name like Cholowsky should be a Twin. LOL.

But seriously, the Twins simply can't lose here. ANY of the top 3 probably gives them an immediate top 100 prospect. While it's 3 and not 5, this is similar to 2023 where we got Jenkins. I'm still assuming the first 2 picks go chalk. It just makes sense. So I'm still betting on Vahn Lackey as the Twins selection. But I'm fine with ANY of the top 3.

Considering I can't believe the Sox would pass on Cholowsky, my hunch is Emerson or the rumored Bell is #2. I'd really like Vahn Lackey because I think he offers fulfillment on 2 levels.

1] He's the second best college bat available behind Cholowsky

2] He plays an important defensive position that the Twins are currently short on. (Our catching prospects are recently promoted to AA, or sitting at A+) 

If the Sox and Rays want to give Cholowsky to us gift wrapped, I won't complain a bit. The ONLY SILLY complaint I could POSSIBLY have with Emerson is he'd be a good 3yrs away from his debut. And I'm subject to instant gratification like most of us. But with K-Pepper ready, and Houston looking so very good, should any of us care if Wit Jr junior is our pick and takes 3yrs or so to reach MLB? We just shouldn't. 

 

I agree that there are five decent picks. I don't think any of the players will be nearly as good as Bobby Baseball, but it never hurts to dream.

[Mike Sixel]

Flora..... Look at their pitchers....Flora.

[Whitey333]

It's so hard to get excited about the Twins draft options or the MLB draft in general.  The Twins haven't done all that well in the draft in recent years.  Some picks have done OK but too many don't play up to their potential or fizzle out .  Plus when you draft high school players you are mostly looking at 3 years or mote.for them to make an impact.  But it does fit right in with the Twins position of only hvi g hype a d hope to sell to the fans.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

White Sox already have  Teel at catcher, so I don't think they will chse Lackey.  The White Sox think they are ready to compete and Cholowsky  will probably reach the majors before Emerson or Lackey.  It is possible the White Sox take Flora, due to the success this year  of their young infielders.  I really want the Twins to draft Lackey, due to the perennial positional need of the Twins at catcher. The Twins have  Lee, Houston, Culpepper, Keaschall,  and possibly Lewis (a huge enigma ???), all (not maybe Houston until 2028) will be major league ready for the 4 infield positions in 2027. All are young and have more upside available, though Lewis is getting long in the tooth, he still seems young to me. Emerson is just too far away from the majors for the Rays, who are competing well in the AL East this season. I'm predicting  the Rays pick Lackey because the Rays have no catchers in the majors who are impressive and their top catching prospect is in A+ ball at age 19. I wonder where Georgia catcher, Daniel Jackson will be drafted? 25 HR, 25 stolen bases, national college player of the year ahead of Lackey and Cholowsky. Jackson has great offensive numbers. The Twins could sure use Lackey or Jackson. But I predict that the Twins will be left to chose either Emerson or Flora. If that is the case, I recommend Flora. The Twins can always use another top of the line pitcher. Flora seems to be the best available in this year's draft.  I'm just not that high on a drafting a high school shortstop. Bobby Witt, Jr. is a once in a decade draft pick. Don't get too enamored with finding the next Witt, Jr. any time soon. We've done that several times before recently and it didn't turn out as well as we had hoped. 

[TopGunn#22]

This is one of the most intriguing MLB drafts in years!  I agree, there are similarities with 2023 when there were 5 good prospects and we were picking 5th.  I also wonder why Daniel Jackson from Georgia isn't getting more love.  To me, the top 5 are the "Big Three" with Flora and Jackson.

In some ways for the Twins, it's almost a relief to be picking 3rd.  It's not like they have the first overall pick and all the pressure is on them to make it count.

I also just can't see the White Sox picking Lackey with Teel and Quero already on the big club.  The White Sox are now playing Montgomery at 3B, Meidroth at 2B and Luis Acuna at SS.  Acuna just doesn't seem to be anything special. I know the White Sox have made some surprising draft decisions in the past, but for me, Cholowsky is the obvious choice. 

Tampa Bay at #2 is where it really gets interesting.  Any of Emerson, Lackey or Flora makes sense and I think the draft turns on who they pick.  If they pick Flora, the Twins will have a HUGE decision to make.  With a couple of solid catching prospects in the minors (who will probably each ne promoted one level this summer) it would be hard to pass on Colt Emerson.  Bobby Witt Jr. comparisons aside, even as a high school prospect, Emerson's upside is insane.  

As infatuated as I am with Marek Houston, I could see a future where Lewis is traded.  Possibly even Brooks Lee is traded.  The infield could see Culpepper at 3B, Houston at SS and Emerson at 2B.  Maybe Keaschall at 1B and an OF of Buxton, Jenkins and E-Rod with Tait the #1 catcher.

But most likely, I see Vahn Lackey as our Catcher, Tait as a backup C and primary 1B.  Culpepper 3B, Houston SS and Lee 2B with an outfield of Buxton, Jenkins and E-Rod/Gabe Gonzalez.  

The chance that Roch Cholowsky somehow falls to us is small but it does exist.  Most likely I see either Colt Emerson or Vahn Lackey as a Twin.  Joe Mauer spent 3 years in the minors as a high school draft pick at #1 overall.  I could see Lackey as the Twins #1 catcher in 2028. 

I don't see the Twins competing at all this year.  But the type of player we could get in this draft ( let's say Lackey) and with the ETA for Walker Jenkins coming soon, I wonder if the Twins try to extend Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton rather than trade them.  Things could change depending on the market for either.  Maybe the Twins acquire as many electric arms as they can if one or both are traded.  But I see the Twins coming out of this draft with a cornerstone type of player. 

[saviking]

Hmmm. How about we rank our top 3 and take the highest ranked one that falls to us .  Let's not over complicate this. 

Personally.. I would love to solve the cather position for as long as we hold Lackey's rights .. 

[Dman]

First things first. Great write up Cody! I've come to see things pretty much the same as this article.  While I agree with Doc that I see a nice top 5 or 6 the top 3 appears strong enough to hold IMO.

There's a variety of reasons but I think Cholowsky and Lacky go 1 and 2.  I do think the Sox will go with the consensus number 1 player from early this year.  Cholowsky should be a fast mover and having a shortstop with his power seems too tough to pass up.  As others have noted they have catching in their system so Lackey is not a "need".  

I know Tampa loves their High School players, but Lackey makes a ton of sense for them.  He too should move fairly fast and catchers with his skill set just don't come around that often   The Rays are contending right now so I'd think a college player makes more sense, but its the Rays and anything could happen at number 2 including Bell so that they can grab some young arms later in the draft. Still I think Lackey makes a lot of sense for them.

I like Emerson and given the Twins have so much talent at AAA and just starting out at the MLB level having a guy that might take an extra year or two seems like a good plan to me.  Going High School bat for number 1 and taking a High School pitcher at pick 2 seems like a good plan to keep the system full of young potential elite players.  The only downside is that it can be harder to get HS players to sign for less money and I am hoping the Twins can save some money for High School arms in the later rounds. Still I think Emerson is a nice pick for the Twins if he is the last one of the three left. 

I just don't see the Twins taking Flora even though I get the logic.  If they take a pitcher at three there is no way they can find a bat somewhat equal to Cholowsky, Emerson or Lackey at 43, but the High School arm they take at three could turn into a Flora type arm if they get the right one. So it seems more prudent to go bat first arm second IMO.

If Lackey is still there at three I'd go with him as it feels like value meets need in a good way there. Still I think the pick will be Emerson and that's a great pick for the Twins.

[Mike Sixel]

46 minutes ago, Dman said:

First things first. Great write up Cody! I've come to see things pretty much the same as this article.  While I agree with Doc that I see a nice top 5 or 6 the top 3 appears strong enough to hold IMO.

There's a variety of reasons but I think Cholowsky and Lacky go 1 and 2.  I do think the Sox will go with the consensus number 1 player from early this year.  Cholowsky should be a fast mover and having a shortstop with his power seems too tough to pass up.  As others have noted they have catching in their system so Lackey is not a "need".  

I know Tampa loves their High School players, but Lackey makes a ton of sense for them.  He too should move fairly fast and catchers with his skill set just don't come around that often   The Rays are contending right now so I'd think a college player makes more sense, but its the Rays and anything could happen at number 2 including Bell so that they can grab some young arms later in the draft. Still I think Lackey makes a lot of sense for them.

I like Emerson and given the Twins have so much talent at AAA and just starting out at the MLB level having a guy that might take an extra year or two seems like a good plan to me.  Going High School bat for number 1 and taking a High School pitcher at pick 2 seems like a good plan to keep the system full of young potential elite players.  The only downside is that it can be harder to get HS players to sign for less money and I am hoping the Twins can save some money for High School arms in the later rounds. Still I think Emerson is a nice pick for the Twins if he is the last one of the three left. 

I just don't see the Twins taking Flora even though I get the logic.  If they take a pitcher at three there is no way they can find a bat somewhat equal to Cholowsky, Emerson or Lackey at 43, but the High School arm they take at three could turn into a Flora type arm if they get the right one. So it seems more prudent to go bat first arm second IMO.

If Lackey is still there at three I'd go with him as it feels like value meets need in a good way there. Still I think the pick will be Emerson and that's a great pick for the Twins.

HS pitchers are the biggest bust candidates. I have zero interest. Look at this system, and tell me who you are even a little confident is a starting pitcher right now. 

[FlyingFinn]

Who's better - Tait or Lackey? Sounds like everyone is saying Lackey.

[Dman]

49 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

HS pitchers are the biggest bust candidates. I have zero interest. Look at this system, and tell me who you are even a little confident is a starting pitcher right now. 

Hard to say what we have yet in Hill and Soto, but both Abel and Bradley were High School picks and they look pretty good.  I guess my challenge to you would be how many hitters on the Twins have made it outside the 1st round?  Jeffers, and maybe Keaschal and even they were 2nd round picks? That's all I can think of off the top of my head. Lot's of arms have.  

For bats in the first round you have Buxton, Martin, Wallner, Larnach, Lee, Jackson, Lewis. Rooker all taken in the first round or supplemental 1st round. It's really hard to find bats outside the top two rounds, but arms can be found all over.  I think Joe Ryan our current number one arm was a 7th round pick. Ober and Matthews were late round picks that is 3 out of 5 rotation spots filled by arms outside the first round. If you include Bradley who was a 5th round pick it's 4 out of 5. 

Most all HS picks are high risk high reward as there is so much development that has to be done.  Still I think the odds are better to go bat first arm later if you want to maximize value throughout your draft.

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, Dman said:

Hard to say what we have yet in Hill and Soto, but both Abel and Bradley were High School picks and they look pretty good.  I guess my challenge to you would be how many hitters on the Twins have made it outside the 1st round?  Jeffers, and maybe Keaschal and even they were 2nd round picks? That's all I can think of off the top of my head. Lot's of arms have.  

For bats in the first round you have Buxton, Martin, Wallner, Larnach, Lee, Jackson, Lewis. Rooker all taken in the first round or supplemental 1st round. It's really hard to find bats outside the top two rounds, but arms can be found all over.  I think Joe Ryan our current number one arm was a 7th round pick. Ober and Matthews were late round picks that is 3 out of 5 rotation spots filled by arms outside the first round. If you include Bradley who was a 5th round pick it's 4 out of 5. 

Most all HS picks are high risk high reward as there is so much development that has to be done.  Still I think the odds are better to go bat first arm later if you want to maximize value throughout your draft.

Only one of whom was drafted by this team... So unless things change, or they make great trades..... Soto can't stay healthy and Hill can't throw strikes. I'm just not interested in high rounds on HS pitchers. You're just not likely to get any value. We likely won't agree. 

[twinstalker]

Quote

From Minnesota's perspective, the math works out quite nicely. Those projections give the Twins roughly a 43% chance of landing Lackey, a 31% chance of selecting Emerson, and a 29% chance of ending up with Cholowsky. When the possible outcomes are the three best players in the draft, those are odds any front office would gladly accept.

Given that Callis just provided the six permutations of the three consensus top names, this statement couldn't make less sense.  Yeah, we know the Twins are getting one of the top three if those three guys are taken first. 

 

 

[Eris]

As having a catcher who excels both offensively and defensively is such a rare attribute, I have a hard time seeing Tampa pass on Lackey. 
 

Edited to add. Tampa doesn’t have any top ranked SS in their system (MLB top 100).  Daniel Pierce is their top SS prospect (5th ranked Tampa prospect) with a projected arrival of 2029. He was the 14th overall pick in last years draft. This may skew the decision towards drafting a SS.