Three Players, Three Picks, Countless Possibilities for the Twins at No. 3

[Cody Christie]

As the countdown to the 2026 MLB Draft continues, most evaluators agree on one thing: nobody truly knows how the first three picks will unfold. That uncertainty is exactly what makes this year's draft so intriguing for the Twins.

In his latest attempt to project the top of the draft, MLB.com draft expert Jim Callis laid out six different scenarios for the first three selections. While there are certainly other possibilities, his projections reinforce the idea that three elite prospects have separated themselves from the rest of the class. The debate centers around three names: UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky, Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey, and prep shortstop Grady Emerson.

For Minnesota, that's a pretty good place to be.

Cholowsky Still Leads the Pack

Callis currently projects the White Sox to select Cholowsky with the first overall pick. That wouldn't qualify as a surprise. Cholowsky has spent much of the draft cycle viewed as the favorite to go No. 1 overall thanks to his polished all-around game, defensive value at shortstop, and offensive upside. He has been the most consistent name atop draft boards for months.

But consistency doesn't necessarily mean certainty. With several weeks remaining before draft night, teams are still gathering information, discussing bonus pool strategies, and determining whether another player might offer more value at the top of the board.

Lackey's Meteoric Rise

If Cholowsky goes first, Callis predicts the Rays would select Lackey with the second overall pick. Few players have boosted their stock more than the Georgia Tech backstop this spring. What began as a strong season evolved into a legitimate argument that Lackey could be the best player available in the entire draft.

Catchers always bring additional risk because of the physical demands of the position, but Lackey's offensive profile and defensive tools have convinced many evaluators that he belongs in the conversation for the first overall selection. In fact, several of Callis' scenarios have Lackey coming off the board before either Cholowsky or Emerson.

Emerson Could Be the Twins' Prize

Under Callis' most likely projection, Minnesota lands Emerson at No. 3 overall. Not long ago, many draft observers believed Emerson would be the favorite to go second overall to Tampa Bay. That's no longer a consensus view, but it illustrates just how fluid the top of this draft remains.

For the Twins, Emerson represents the type of upside teams dream about acquiring near the top of the draft. The prep shortstop has long been viewed as one of the most talented players in the class, and there are still plenty of scenarios where he doesn't make it past the first or second pick.

That's why Minnesota's front office is likely spending more time preparing for multiple outcomes than targeting one specific player.

The Tyler Bell Wild Card

Another factor worth monitoring is Kentucky shortstop Tyler Bell. Callis noted that Bell could be willing to sign for less than slot value if selected within the top five picks. Those types of bonus considerations can dramatically alter draft boards.

If a team believes it can save money early and redistribute those dollars later in the draft, Bell could become an appealing option. Any surprise move involving Bell would create a ripple effect that impacts the prospects available when Minnesota is on the clock.

The Odds Favor Minnesota

Callis assigned probabilities to six potential outcomes involving the first three selections:

• Cholowsky (White Sox), Lackey (Rays), Emerson (Twins): 26%
• Cholowsky (White Sox), Emerson (Rays), Lackey (Twins): 24%
• Emerson (White Sox), Lackey (Rays), Cholowsky (Twins): 21%
• Emerson (White Sox), Cholowsky (Rays), Lackey (Twins): 19%
• Lackey (White Sox), Emerson (Rays), Cholowsky (Twins): 5%
• Lackey (White Sox), Cholowsky (Rays), Emerson (Twins): 5%

From Minnesota's perspective, the math works out quite nicely. Those projections give the Twins roughly a 43% chance of landing Lackey, a 31% chance of selecting Emerson, and a 29% chance of ending up with Cholowsky. When the possible outcomes are the three best players in the draft, those are odds any front office would gladly accept.

A Familiar Situation

This year's draft bears some resemblance to the 2023 draft. That summer, the Twins benefited from the inaugural MLB Draft Lottery, jumping from the 13th pick to the fifth overall selection. The top of that draft featured a clear group of elite prospects, and Minnesota's strategy was simple: wait and take whichever premium talent remained available. The result was Walker Jenkins, who has remained the organization's top prospect ever since.

The Twins could find themselves following a similar blueprint this year. Rather than being locked into one player, Minnesota appears positioned to let the first two picks dictate its decision. With Cholowsky, Lackey, and Emerson all viewed as top-tier talents, the organization may simply select whichever member of that trio is still available.

Draft season often becomes a search for certainty, but this year's class isn't offering much of it at the top. What it is offering, however, is opportunity.

The White Sox and Rays will ultimately determine how the board unfolds, but Minnesota enters the process in an enviable position. Whether it's Cholowsky's polish, Lackey's rising star power, or Emerson's immense upside, the Twins appear likely to walk away with one of the draft's premier talents.

With less than a month until commissioner Rob Manfred steps to the podium, the picture remains cloudy. For the Twins, that's perfectly fine. Sometimes the best draft strategy is letting the talent come to you.

 

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