Byron Buxton Has Become an AL MVP Contender

[Cody Schoenmann]

On June 5, New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge was placed on the 10-day IL with a right rib stress fracture, sidelining the perennial All-Star for six to eight weeks. Before fracturing his right rib, the 34-year-old was hitting .248/.375/.533 with 17 home runs and a 148 wRC+. Performing 48% better than league average, Judge was performing like one of the best hitters in the league. However, he was performing meaningfully worse than in 2024 and 2025, when he generated a combined 212 wRC+ and 111 home runs over 1,383 plate appearances, winning back-to-back AL MVP awards.

 

Unfortunately, due to his six-to-eight absence and slow start (again, relative to previous seasons from Judge) to his 2026 campaign, the future first-ballot Hall-of-Famer is all but guaranteed not to earn his third consecutive AL MVP Award, opening the door for a new winner. At first glance, Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. and Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez appear to be the co-favorites to earn the award this season.

 

Headlined by his platinum glove-caliber defense at shortstop, Witt Jr. has generated the most Wins Above Replacement at Fangraphs (fWAR) among position players in baseball, with 4.0. Putting together a Judge-esque season himself (24 home runs over 318 plate appearances; 194 wRC+), Alvarez is close behind Witt Jr., generating 3.7 fWAR. West Sacramento (occasionally Las Vegas) Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz has generated the third most fWAR in the AL, with 3.4, and a pair of Detroit Tigers in Dillon Dingler (3.2) and Kevin McGonigle (3.0) round out the top-five.

 

Coming in with the sixth-most fWAR, however, is Minnesota Twins centerfielder Byron Buxton. Earning AL player of the week honors for the week of June 8-14, Buxton has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball this month, hitting .348/.388/.804 with six home runs and three doubles over 49 plate appearances. Buxton’s performance this June has been the peak of his best offensive season in the majors, wherein the 32-year-old has hit .276/.335/.606 with 23 home runs (the third most home runs hit in MLB) and a 154 wRC+ over 278 plate appearances.

 

Buxton hasn’t been the same caliber of hitter as Alvarez or Kurtz this season. Kurtz has generated a 173 wRC+ and 18 home runs over 325 plate appearances, and Alvarez, as mentioned earlier, is the only AL batter with more home runs than Buxton this season, while also manufacturing 40 more points of wRC+. What separates Buxton from Kurtz and Alvarez, however, is that he is playing well above-average defense at an up-the-middle position in centerfield, while Kurtz plays first base and Alvarez exclusively hits. If Buxton can continue his elite performance at the plate while being a plus defensive centerfielder, he could surpass Kurtz and Alvarez as AL MVP favorites.

 

As mentioned earlier, Dingler and McGonigle have generated more fWAR than Buxton. Yet, Buxton is outhitting both Tigers' position players, netting 16 more points of wRC+ than Dingler and 23 more than McGonigle. McGonigle is a rookie who has consistently been one of baseball’s best hitters this season. Dingler, on the other hand, has undergone a recent offensive renaissance while catching almost every game, helping him jump up the fWAR leaderboard. Still, however, given that McGonigle is the heavy-favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year Award, and Dingler should regress at the plate soon, the Tigers' star duo likely aren’t legitimate AL MVP Award contenders.

 

Witt Jr. has meaningfully outperformed Buxton in terms of fWAR. However, a significant portion of his fWAR accumulation has come from his stellar defense at shortstop. Witt Jr. might be the best defensive shortstop ever. Still, just like how hitting alone likely won’t be enough for Alvarez to don AL MVP honors, it is going to be exceptionally difficult for Witt Jr. to win the AL MVP primarily on his elite defense. Through 325 plate appearances, Witt Jr. has hit .284/.357/.450, which is good for a 120 wRC+. The 26-year-old has performed well offensively, but he hasn’t been a world-class hitter, which is a trait that should be necessary for any MVP award winner.

 

The primary reason for Witt Jr.’s lackluster season at the plate (again, relative to Witt Jr.’s career norms) is that he has hit only nine home runs, resulting in a modest .450 slugging percentage (SLG). There is a chance Witt Jr. turns things around offensively and hits closer to the 169 wRC+ over 709 plate appearances performance he put together in 2024. If that occurs, he will likely win AL MVP honors. That said, though, if he doesn’t pick things up offensively and Buxton continues to perform at the rate he has, an argument could be made that Buxton’s elite offense and above-average defense are more valuable than Witt Jr.’s elite defense and above-average offense.

 

The final consideration when discussing potential MVP award winners is team performance. Right now, the Twins have better playoff odds than the Royals and Astros. The Tigers have better playoff odds than Minnesota, according to FanGraphs. The Twins are still three games up on Detroit in the AL Central and Wild Card standings, however. Only two games out from the third AL Wild Card spot, Minnesota is very much in postseason contention and should continue to remain in contention late into the season.

 

If Minnesota does make the postseason, Buxton will have had to play a significant role, meaning he avoided any serious injuries while maintaining his elite production at the plate. Again, a lot has to go right for both Buxton and the club. Still, given that Judge is hurt; Alvarez doesn’t play the field; Witt Jr. has performed much worse than Buxton offensively; Dingler, and McGonigle are likely due for regression while playing on a worse club; and Kurtz plays a position much lower on the defensive spectrum while hitting for less power than Buxton, the long-time Twins could win his first AL MVP award this season, signifying a triumphant display of perseverance for a player who was once one of the most injury-riddled players in the sport.

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[dxpavelka]

It's nice to dream but it's not going to happen.  Might not even be an all-star game starter.  Yes, I know, RBI is a flawed stat.  An argument usually made by someone arguing the value of a guy with few RBI.  36.  'nuff said.  That being said, do NOT trade him.

[Linus]

In my world a DH isn’t even eligible for this award. Lots of season left to shake things out. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

He’s doing great so far, but would probably need to find a completely different gear to accelerate to the MVP, plus if the Twins have fallen completely out of contention, that’s going to be a drag on his candidacy as well.  Let’s just enjoy it while it lasts!

[JD-TWINS]

As Coach Mora said, “Playoffs? ….. PLAYOFFS?”

If the Team’s pitching isn’t healed……. Abel - Ober - Ryan - Bradley - Matthews/Prielipp

Rojas - Sands - Matthews/Prielipp they can’t sustain any serious competitive level.

Jeffers healthy is almost a certain trade piece, so that stings.

Lewis - Keaschall - Bell - Caratini need to hold it together at the plate like the last couple weeks.

Byron is almost certainly, with health, going to hit 35 with a real shot at 40HR. If his OPS is .850 & he hits 40HR, with his defense………. I’m saying there’s a chance……..gotta make the PLAYOFFS or no chance!

I know others here will hate this, but Arraez at the deadline OR sooner gives this offense a big shot in the arm and with his ‘26 defense, stabilizes 2B & occasionally 1B. He’s not a lead-off guy but he sure could be nice slotted behind Buxton!

[Blyleven2011]

Way to early to speculate on the MVP award  , injuries could also happen  , God forbid ...

Buxton may get in the top 10 or top 5 for voting if he stays healthy the remainder of the season  , but is just defense and solo homeruns going to get him the award  ...

Didn't Buxton win player of the week twice already this season  ...

[Eris]

No. This is wishful thinking. Buxton is at best an average defensive CF (3 OAA) which ranks 12th in MLB so far this season. If there is any doubt the evaluators/voters will look at his 0 for 28 (24 AB as he had 4 BB) with 2 outs and RISP resulting in 0 RBIs.  Although Buxton maybe the best player on the Twins team, these are just not MVP caliber stats. 
 

 

[AlwaysinModeration]

If he stays healthy all year, he has a legit chance.  I’m on the late Adrian Beltre career run to the Hall-of-Fame bandwagon for Buck, personally.

He also has 37 consecutive stolen bases, 13 from the all time record, held by Vince Coleman.  (AL record is 45.)

[Dennesey55347]

Buxton is indeed in the convo and votes should come his way. Others mentioned his low RBI numbers- I think he opened the season something like 0-19 in non-HR, RISP opportunities. He has what, 2 (maybe 3) non-HR RBI's so far in 263 AB. Similar story every year for Buxton, so not new territory. He's killin' those solo shots, but otherwise not the guy most likely to get that game-breaking hit.

We should see him at the All-Star Game, but I expect his MVP votes on the lower end.

Ultimately, fans mostly care if he's healthy, productive, and having fun. His unwavering loyalty is an added bonus.

[bean5302]

I thought, finally, after all the years the writers here would stop this Buxton MVP garbage. He is not and never will be an MVP candidate. Buxton is a 5-6 WAR full season player. That's not getting you an MVP. 

 

 

[Cody Schoenmann]

18 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I thought, finally, after all the years the writers here would stop this Buxton MVP garbage. He is not and never will be an MVP candidate. Buxton is a 5-6 WAR full season player. That's not getting you an MVP. 

 

 

To reiterate the points made in my piece, Buxton is seventh if you filter this to AL-only, and he’s only 0.3 points of fWAR away from placing fourth. There’s a really good chance he surpasses Montgomery, McGonigle, Dingler, and even Kurtz if he sustains this performance. 

Witt Jr. and Alvarez are all but guaranteed to finish with more fWAR than Buxton. But what good is 9.0 fWAR for Witt Jr. if his team finishes 20 games under .500 and is out of playoff contention come August? Also, Buxton has been a meaningfully better hitter than Witt Jr. this season.

Alvarez is a DH, and i highly doubt he ends the season with a wRC+ above even 170. Not to mention the Twins are more likely to make the playoffs than any club on this list other than the A’s. I’m a broken record at this point but there’s a clear path for Buxton to win.

[thelanges5]

Watching Buxton play the game of baseball is a joy. I hope he continues to play well enough to activate some of the bonuses he has in his contract. He’s a bargain at $15 million a year. 

[Hunter4848]

No he hasnt. A part time player will not sniff the MVP conversation