Twins Video
On June 5, New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge was placed on the 10-day IL with a right rib stress fracture, sidelining the perennial All-Star for six to eight weeks. Before hitting the shelf, the 34-year-old was hitting .248/.375/.533 with 17 home runs and a 148 wRC+. Performing 48% better than league average, Judge was clearly one of the best hitters in the league. However, he was meaningfully worse than in 2024 and 2025, when he generated a combined 212 wRC+ and 111 home runs over 1,383 plate appearances, winning back-to-back AL MVP awards.
Given the downtime he faces, the future first-ballot Hall of Famer is all but guaranteed not to earn his third consecutive MVP, opening the door for a new winner. At first glance, Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. and Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez appear to be the co-favorites. Headlined by his Platinum Glove-caliber defense at shortstop, Witt has generated the most Wins Above Replacement at Fangraphs (fWAR) among position players in baseball, with 4.5. Putting together a Judge-esque season himself (24 home runs over 327 plate appearances; 190 wRC+), Alvarez is close behind Witt, generating 3.6 fWAR. West Sacramento (occasionally Las Vegas) Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz has generated the third-most fWAR in the AL, with 3.3, and a pair of Detroit Tigers in Dillon Dingler and Kevin McGonigle round out the top five, each at 3.1. Colson Montgomery of the White Sox is sixth, at 3.0.
Coming in with the seventh-most fWAR, however, is Minnesota Twins center fielder Byron Buxton. Earning AL Player of the Week honors for the week of June 8-14, Buxton has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball this month, hitting .340/.389/.760 with six home runs and three doubles over 54 plate appearances. Buxton’s performance this June has been the peak of his best offensive season in the majors, wherein the 32-year-old has hit .275/.336/.601 with 23 home runs (third-most in MLB) and a 154 wRC+ over 283 plate appearances.
Buxton hasn’t been the same caliber of hitter as Alvarez or Kurtz this season. Kurtz has been phenomenally consistent in the OBP department, and Alvarez, as mentioned earlier, is the only AL batter with more home runs than Buxton this season, while also hitting for average. What separates Buxton from Kurtz and Alvarez, however, is that he's playing solid defense at an up-the-middle position, while Kurtz plays first base and Alvarez is almost exclusively a DH. If Buxton can continue his elite performance at the plate while being a plus defensive center fielder, he could surpass Kurtz and Alvarez in this race over the second half of the year.
As mentioned earlier, Dingler and McGonigle have generated more fWAR than Buxton. Yet, Buxton is outhitting both Tigers' position players. McGonigle is a rookie who has consistently been one of baseball’s best hitters this season. Dingler has undergone a recent offensive renaissance while catching almost every game, helping him jump up the fWAR leaderboard. Still, given that McGonigle is the heavy-favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year Award, and Dingler should regress at the plate soon, the Tigers' star duo likely aren’t legitimate AL MVP Award contenders.
Witt has meaningfully outperformed Buxton in terms of fWAR. However, a significant portion of his fWAR accumulation has come from his stellar defense at shortstop. Witt might be the best defensive shortstop in the league right now. Still, just like how hitting alone likely won’t be enough for Alvarez to win with just his bat, it's going to be exceptionally difficult for Witt to do so based primarily on his elite defense. Through 335 plate appearances, Witt Jr. has hit .290/.365/.451, which is good for a 128 wRC+. The 26-year-old has performed well offensively, but he hasn’t been a world-class hitter, which is a trait that should be necessary for any MVP award winner.
It's a relative dearth of power slowing Witt at the moment. He's only hit 10 home runs. There's a chance Witt turns on the jets offensively and hits closer to the 169 wRC+ over 709 plate appearances he put together in 2024. If so, he could run away with this—literally, since he also leads the big leagues with 28 steals. The difference in how much value the two provide is probably being overstated a bit by fWAR, though—and Witt left the Royals' game Thursday after tweaking his knee, so another injury could be opening the door for Buxton.
The final consideration when discussing potential MVP award winners is team performance. Right now, the Twins have better playoff odds than the Royals and Astros. The Tigers have better playoff odds than Minnesota, according to FanGraphs. The Twins are still five games up on Detroit in the AL Central and Wild Card standings, however. Only 1.5 games out from the third AL Wild Card spot, Minnesota is very much in postseason contention.
If Minnesota does make the postseason, Buxton will have had to play a significant role, meaning he avoided any serious injuries while maintaining his elite production at the plate. Again, a lot has to go right for both Buxton and the club. Still, given that Judge is hurt; Alvarez doesn’t play the field; Witt hasn't hit for great power, and may now be hurt; Dingler, and McGonigle are likely due for regression while playing on a worse club; and Kurtz plays a position much lower on the defensive spectrum while hitting for less power than Buxton, the long-time Twins star could win his first AL MVP award this season. However slim the chances, if that does happen, it would be a triumphant display of perseverance for a player who was once one of the most injury-riddled players in the sport.
Follow Twins Daily For Minnesota Twins News & Analysis
- TL, DannySD, mikelink45 and 1 other
-
4
Recommended Comments
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now