How Joe Ryan Could Have More Value Than Tarik Skubal at the MLB Trade Deadline

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

With the Detroit Tigers sitting near the bottom of the American League standings, it has become increasingly clear that Tarik Skubal will be one of the biggest names available before the August 4th MLB Trade Deadline.

The two-time American League Cy Young Award winner has already become the subject of countless trade rumors. National outlets have spent weeks projecting landing spots, debating prospect packages, and speculating about which contenders will ultimately win the bidding war for one of baseball's best pitchers.

Skubal's recent stint on the injured list has done little to slow the conversation. Expectations are that he will make a rehab appearance next week and return to the Tigers' rotation shortly thereafter. That should leave plenty of time for contenders to evaluate him before the deadline arrives.

Trade Suitors for Skubal (and Ryan?)    

Recently, The Athletic identified seven potential suitors for Skubal, including the Dodgers, Rays, Cubs, Yankees, Padres, Diamondbacks, and Blue Jays. That list illustrates exactly how strong the market could be for a frontline starter. It also creates an interesting opportunity for the Minnesota Twins.

While Skubal is expected to headline the pitching market, Joe Ryan may be the best starting pitcher available after him. If one club ultimately lands Skubal, there will be several disappointed contenders left searching for an ace-level arm. Those teams could quickly pivot their attention toward Minnesota and Ryan.

In some ways, Ryan's market could become directly tied to Skubal's. Every team involved in the Skubal sweepstakes will likely have a prospect package prepared. Once Skubal comes off the board, those same organizations could redirect their resources toward Ryan. A bidding war that starts with Detroit could easily spill over into Minnesota.

Joe Ryan's Trade Value

There is even a legitimate argument that Ryan could generate a stronger return than Skubal. That statement might seem surprising given Skubal's accomplishments. He owns two Cy Young Awards and has established himself as one of the most dominant starters in baseball. However, trade value is about more than talent.

Control matters. Skubal is scheduled to become a free agent after the season and will be looking for one of the largest contracts in baseball history when he hits the open market. Any acquiring team would be paying a premium for roughly two months of regular season starts and a potential postseason run. Ryan, meanwhile, remains under team control through the 2027 season via arbitration.

That extra year is significant. Ryan will earn a raise through arbitration, but his salary will remain far below what an ace-level starter would command on the open market. Teams place enormous value on cost certainty, particularly with a new Collective Bargaining Agreement looming this winter. If baseball moves toward a salary cap and floor system, affordable impact players could become even more valuable.

Why the Twins Would Trade Ryan

The Twins have hovered around the .500 mark for much of the season and remain within striking distance of a playoff berth. However, that positioning says as much about the state of the American League as it does about Minnesota's performance.

The reality is that the Twins have struggled to establish themselves as a true contender. That reality is what makes Ryan such an intriguing trade candidate. At 30 years old, Ryan is pitching some of the best baseball of his career. Through his first 13 starts (70 1/3 innings), he posted a career-best 136 ERA+ and 2.76 FIP with 79 strikeouts and only 14 walks.

Those numbers follow a breakout 2025 campaign in which Ryan earned his first All-Star selection. After spending multiple seasons on the fringe of All-Star consideration, he finally received the recognition he deserved. He finished last season with a 125 ERA+ and 194 strikeouts across 171 innings while cementing himself as one of the American League's most reliable starters.

For a contender seeking rotation help, Ryan checks nearly every box. He misses bats, limits walks, stays relatively healthy, and comes with an additional year of control. That combination is rare.

The Twins may ultimately decide to keep Ryan and continue their pursuit of a postseason spot. There is certainly an argument for retaining one of the organization's best players. There is also an opportunity for the Twins to extend Ryan so they could get closer to the proposed MLB salary floor. But if Minnesota chooses to sell, Detroit's decision on Skubal could have a major impact on the Twins' return package.

The first domino on the pitching market is likely Skubal. Once it falls, Ryan could become the most coveted starter available. And if enough teams are left empty-handed after missing out on Detroit's ace, Minnesota may discover that Ryan's market is every bit as strong as Skubal's. It becomes a supply-and-demand situation.

That possibility is exactly why the Twins should be paying close attention to what happens in Detroit over the next several weeks.

Can Ryan get a larger trade package than Skubal? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Coach Wheels]

Trading Joe Ryan makes all the sense in the world. There is no reason to keep and pay this guy when you're not serious about winning championships. Get all you can for him and possibly Buxton as well.

[mluebker]

Give the guy a chance to pitch for a winner and restock the young talent for 2028 and beyond. I hate the idea, but it makes sense.

[Andy MacPhail]

If we can get some young impact players who can help the club soon then yeah & not a bunch of lotto tickets who might never really do anything. We don't need anymore redundant LH hitting corner players that last regime liked to stock-pile & hoard who haven't made much of an impact yet. Will the new regime under Zoll be much better? I hope so eventually but I doubt it right away. Then I'd prefer to keep Ryan especially if there is going to be a salary floor.

[Paul Walerius]

35 minutes ago, Coach Wheels said:

Trading Joe Ryan makes all the sense in the world. There is no reason to keep and pay this guy when you're not serious about winning championships. Get all you can for him and possibly Buxton as well.

They went backwards to strengthen farm.  I don't see any reason to trade him.  They have a good start.  They need to get starters healthy but I don't see why you would trade him.  

[JD-TWINS]

34 minutes ago, Coach Wheels said:

Trading Joe Ryan makes all the sense in the world. There is no reason to keep and pay this guy when you're not serious about winning championships. Get all you can for him and possibly Buxton as well.

I do understand the thinking that he could bring some talent for the future - obviously! For sure a big carrot!!

Team will never be competitive continually churning through guys they KNOW CAN perform v. guys that “……are supposed to be potential stars, someday…..” Lewis was a sure thing star! Wallner was going to hit 40 HR and play RF for years. Brooks Lee was a can’t miss, coaches kid, who had a great HIT tool.

It does mystify me though, how many fans here at TD are concerned about the Club’s spending? Like they spend too much or should be careful not to spend too much.  “…….. why keep Larnach for $4.5M?…….” ……”Spent too much for Bell, could have signed XYZ player for $3-4M less…” ……..”why pay Ryan when not competing for Championships?”

Team has a ‘26 spend of $105M - ($10M on Correa & $22M on Lopez) of which $73M is on the field for actual play. They spent $155M in ‘23. It’s pathetic!!

Trading every guy that they NEED to pay to retain is a losing proposition. Tampa - Milwaukee - maybe 1-2 other Teams excel in this space BUT they have been building toward this approach for most of 20 years …….TWIN’s are in spending free fall and are only 2-3 years into the approach. Need the management to create a PLAN & significant TIME to be successful in that space!

With a potential “floor” for player spending in the near future, I’d seriously consider hanging on to guys you know that can play. Spending on the guys like Vazquez & Caratini will always happen - some misses - happen in every organization! These guys just can’t be the Club’s BIG swings on spending!

Give Jeffers the Qualifying Offer - try to extend Ryan - spend on a 1B (Arraez) or some “known productivity”! With Staff health and 1-2 OF from AAA and the Team is competitive next season………if Jeffers bites. 🤞Lewis🙏🤞 at 1B and hitting?!? ….. someday, or they could pay Araez $15M to bat 5th every day and get hits with runners on base.

[bean5302]

I don't think the Twins will make any decisions until it's clear they're out of it. Right now, the team is 2.0 GB of the Wild Card.

The reason you trade Ryan is because the Twins have no hope of advancing in the playoffs and a single injury could completely wipe any value Ryan has to the team in an instant. Sure, they could technically make it for a Wild Card series (probably not), but advancing? With what? Buxton and Ryan aren't Ohtani and Trout, and even Ohtani and Trout couldn't get the Angels to the playoffs.

Rank in terms of WAR by position players:
C - 4th
1B - 21st
2B - 19th
3B - 25th
SS - 24th
LF - 3rd!! wtf Trevor Larnach? Who is this guy?
CF - 5th
RF - 30th
DH - 20th
Mean average = 17th.

Moving away from expected metrics to reality for pitchers to ERA.
The Twins starters rank 18th.
The Twins relievers rank 25th.

Pitching wins playoffs.

If Abel returns and is good.
If the Twins can identify a couple high leverage relievers
If Lewis returns to form
If Culpepper provides the boost at SS the Twins desperately need.
If the Twins can identify a solution for RF

They could be good enough to advance. But let's be real. They're not beating Atlanta. They're not beating the Dodgers. They're not beating the Yankees.

[tony&rodney]

Let's think about this about seven weeks from now. In the intervening time the Twins can listen if teams call.  Major trades before the All Star Game are rare.

[Wedman13]

2 hours ago, Coach Wheels said:

Trading Joe Ryan makes all the sense in the world. There is no reason to keep and pay this guy when you're not serious about winning championships. Get all you can for him and possibly Buxton as well.

So a team like the Rays could trade for Joe, make a run this year, then turn around and trade him at the 2027 deadline for their own haul from a big market team ?  If so, yes, to the right team I believe joe could bring even more back than Skubal.

 Will we?  I doubt it 

[mluebker]

1 hour ago, Paul Walerius said:

They need to get starters healthy but I don't see why you would trade him.  

For me you trade him because: the Twins aren’t going to win anything this year; and the one remaining year of control is likely going to be another truncated or lost year because of  a lockout, strike or both while they wrangle over the CBA, and the Pohlads aren’t going to splurge on a winning roster for that. So they’d be wasting a valuable asset—and not doing Ryan any favors—by keeping him on a team he can’t carry by himself, and passing up the opportunity to pick up some prospects who might be ready for a better Twins roster in 2028. (And I agree with the guy above about no mor “redundant LH hitting corner players that last regime liked to stock-pile & hoard.”)