Has the League Caught Up to Connor Prielipp?

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Connor Prielipp’s last three starts have not been encouraging.

Before taking the mound on May 22, the Twins' rookie looked like one of the biggest bright spots in their rotation. Through his first handful of major league starts, he carried an ERA below 3.00, was striking out more than a batter per inning, and looked every bit like a pitcher capable of settling into the top half of a big-league rotation.

Since then, however, the results have gone in the opposite direction. Over his last three outings, Prielipp has allowed 15 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings while posting a 13-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The dominance that was present during the first month of his major league career simply has not been there.

As a result, his season ERA has climbed to 5.26, his WHIP now sits at 1.35, and he’s averaging less than five innings per start.

That naturally leads to a pretty straightforward question: Is it time to worry about Connor Prielipp?

There are reasonable arguments on both sides. On one hand, it’s hard to ignore how impressive he looked during his first several starts. His stuff was electric, hitters struggled to square him up, and he consistently generated swings and misses.

On the other hand, the recent stat lines are impossible to completely dismiss. More earned runs than innings pitched is ugly no matter how you slice it. The strikeout numbers have come down, the walks have increased and opposing offenses have found far more success against him than they did earlier in the season.

Still, after digging a little deeper into the numbers, it’s hard to come away believing that Prielipp is pitching nearly as poorly as his recent results suggest. In fact, there’s a strong case that bad luck has played a significant role in his struggles.

To be fair, everything hasn’t been perfect.

His swing-and-miss numbers have dipped, and the command hasn’t been quite as sharp as it was during his first month in the majors. You’d certainly like to see fewer walks, and there are areas of his game that need to improve.

But overall, the underlying indicators paint a much more encouraging picture than the surface-level statistics. The biggest reason for that optimism is the quality of contact he has allowed.   

Earlier in the season, hard contact was arguably Prielipp’s biggest issue. While he was still producing strong results, hitters were barreling baseballs at a relatively high rate when they did make contact. Through his first 24 innings, he surrendered four home runs, and those long balls accounted for much of the damage against him.

Ironically, the exact opposite has happened during his recent rough stretch. Over his last three starts, Prielipp has allowed 21 hits, yet none of them have left the ballpark. 

Even more telling is the quality of those hits. His hard-hit rate during that span sits below 30 percent, which is an extremely impressive number. Generally speaking, pitchers who are limiting hard contact at that level should not be giving up hits in bunches. While not every softly hit ball turns into an out, a hard-hit rate that low suggests hitters have not been consistently squaring him up.

That’s what makes the recent results somewhat misleading. When a pitcher is allowing weak contact but still getting burned by a high volume of hits, there’s often an element of poor fortune involved. Ground balls find holes, soft line drives fall between defenders, and bloopers drop into shallow outfield grass.

Those things happen over the course of a season. The problem is that when several of them happen in a short period of time, the box scores can look much worse than the actual performance.

But there’s another factor worth monitoring as well.

Prielipp has started relying less on his breaking balls. Earlier in the year, his slider and curveball combined for over 60 percent of his pitch usage. More recently, that number has dropped to around 48 percent.

To some extent, the reasoning would be understandable. Prielipp has dealt with more than his share of arm injuries throughout his career, and breaking balls are known for being taxing on an elbow. If the Twins are attempting to reduce stress on his arm by slightly altering his pitch mix, there could be logic behind the decision.

At the same time, those breaking pitches are his bread and butter. They’re his best swing-and-miss offerings and help make the rest of his arsenal more effective. When hitters have to respect both the slider and curveball, his fastball plays up considerably.

It would be interesting to see the Twins gradually increase that usage again. Not enough to create durability concerns, but even a small bump back toward where it was earlier in the season could help him regain some of the whiffs that have disappeared over the last few weeks.

At the end of the day, Prielipp hasn’t been flawless. The command could be better, the strikeout numbers could be higher, and the walks need to come down. Those are legitimate concerns.

But the overall picture is far less alarming than a glance at his ERA might suggest.

The underlying metrics indicate a pitcher who is still limiting hard contact at an impressive rate. The recent hit totals appear somewhat inflated by factors outside of his control, and there are still plenty of signs that the talent that made him so successful earlier in the year remains intact.

Because of that, it feels premature to sound the alarm. Connor Prielipp’s last three starts have undoubtedly been frustrating, but they look much more like a temporary bump in the road than the beginning of a larger problem.

The Twins still appear to have a talented major league starter on their hands. And if the quality of contact remains this strong, there’s a good chance the results will start reflecting that again sooner rather than later.

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[mikelink45]

It is up to the coaches to get the right mix and coach him into success if all his pitches remain what we expect.  Who has been his catcher? Try the other one. 

[DJL44]

Relying on the Twins defense to turn batted balls into outs has not worked out well, especially with Buxton playing mostly at DH.

[Patzky]

27 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Relying on the Twins defense to turn batted balls into outs has not worked out well, especially with Buxton playing mostly at DH.

Exactly. Better defense makes for better pitchers.

[thelanges5]

I thought his last outing was a nice rebound. Four earned runs but on the D; 2 stolen bases and a throwing error, an infield single that should have been an out. He pitched well after that, and gave the team a chance to win, which they did.

[Permanent Twins Fan]

This happens to most pitchers when they reach the league. A lot of them start out hot because no one has faced them before. Once the unknown is removed, however, the hitters eventually get used to facing them and starting getting on more hits vs. them. What differentiates a good pitcher from a mediocre pitcher is that the good pitcher will make adjustments and figure out how to stay on top. Prielipp has such good stuff that is hard to see him struggling like this permanently. 

[hitterscount]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Relying on the Twins defense to turn batted balls into outs has not worked out well, especially with Buxton playing mostly at DH.

100%, the defense have done him and the entirepitching staff no favors. They struggle at times to make routine plays, difficult plays are rare and a catcher throwing out a base runner is near extinction. Balls hit in play that should be outs and aren't made extend innings, pitch counts, lead to runs that are earned that can lead to losses that should be wins.... and despite the poor defense they are somehow only 5 games under .500, need to win these home series, playing solid defense helps, although they are who they are at this point. A Cullpeper call up would help... a lot.

[TJSweens]

This is straight up overthinking things. Prielipp is a rookie pitcher, who's career is 8 games old. The league adjusts. Now it's Prielipp's turn to make adjustments. 

[TL]

I don’t think that was overthinking anything. It demonstrates what the eye test seemed to indicate. He’s pitching as good as he was but having a bit of bad luck. If he can stay healthy, he looks like he’s a major piece for the foreseeable future.  If the walk rate comes down a bit, he’s gonna be very good.

[bean5302]

WHIP of 1.35 is fine. xERA 3.80, FIP 3.75, xFIP 4.18.

Looking at his last 3 rough starts, 9.42 ERA, 5.06 xERA, 2.97 FIP, 4.67 xFIP. Nothing really stands out as bad over a 3 game stretch save for the ERA. Exit velos, hard hit, barrels, etc all look fine. The BABIP of .420 is wayyyyy too high. It seems like a lot of bad luck. Twins fielders don't help.

His stuff looks good, but he's struggling with locating the his breaking stuff. Not unexpected, especially given Prielipp is just learning the curveball. He was not ready when the Twins called him up, but he was needed.

More encouraging, there are flashes. His fastballs are mediocre, but there are flashes of him being able to locate them expertly. His slider is a borderline 60 grade pitch at the MLB level, and the curve could be a 70+ grade offering. Prielipp has some weapons.

[rv78]

I didn't realize he was in the major leagues long enough to have established himself as any certain kind of starter that the league could, figure out. Seems to me like you are jumping to conclusions on a very small sample size. Why not give him a year (or two) to see what he actually is. Woods-Richardson looked good at times too.

[D.C Twins]

Either that or it is because he it practicing with footballs instead of baseballs..