Twins 1, Orioles 2: Minnesota Bats Go Cold in 80-Degree Baltimore

[The Great Hambino]

That was also immediately after Martin had thrown to the wrong base on the sac fly which allowed the eventual winning run to move into scoring position.

A big complaint about the prior manager was the apparent lack of accountability for mental mistakes

Every situation has a unique set of circumstances.  My expectations aren't too high, but I think we need to give Shelton a little time to establish his habits before we turn on him

5 minutes ago, beterday said:

 How many teams pinch hit for their lead off hitter based on righty-lefty matchup?

[chpettit19]

31 minutes ago, Danchat said:

To be fair, this is something most teams do with their starters at the beginning of the year, Ryan will be allowed to go to 100 pitches within a few weeks' time. But yeah, short starts are gonna be devastating with how weak this bullpen is. 

He threw the 10th most pitches in baseball between opening night and day. Only 4 guys hit 90 pitches. 1 (Hunter Brown) had 102. WAY too early to start complaining about 85 pitch starts. But I don't expect there to be a significant difference in how the pitchers are handled this year. But we'll have to wait more than 1 game to make that determination.

[David Maro]

Watching the game looked like watching Rocco 2.0. How can you put Topa in a 0-0 game when he should have been DFA'ed. And then again Lewis is supposed to be the guy and you PH for him when he has shown to come up with the big hit. If this is the way Shelton is going to do things it will be a long season.

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, David Maro said:

Watching the game looked like watching Rocco 2.0. How can you put Topa in a 0-0 game when he should have been DFA'ed. And then again Lewis is supposed to be the guy and you PH for him when he has shown to come up with the big hit. If this is the way Shelton is going to do things it will be a long season.

Topa gave up one run because his outfielder threw to the wrong base. The game wasn’t tied, they were losing 1-0 at the time.

If fans freak out every time a relief pitcher gives up a run it will be a long season.

[DJL44]

Close game that would have been a win with a timely hit. They won’t go 1-12 with RISP every game.

[Maybe Next Year]

So Shelton laments the Twins were 1-12 with runners in scoring position. Hey Derek, our only run was scored on a sacrifice fly. We had runners on first and second with no outs 3 times. Maybe if you would have played some small ball and actually bunted runners to 2nd and 3rd we might have had a chance. But no, let's swing away and hit into double play after double play. I was hoping when Rocco was fired we would finally get a manager who knew how to manage a game. I guess not.

[shimrod]

22 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They won’t go 1-12 with RISP every game.

Nope. 0-12 is a definite possibility. As is the likelihood we get fewer than 12 opportunities. 

 

[DJL44]

19 minutes ago, Maybe Next Year said:

So Shelton laments the Twins were 1-12 with runners in scoring position. Hey Derek, our only run was scored on a sacrifice fly. We had runners on first and second with no outs 3 times. Maybe if you would have played some small ball and actually bunted runners to 2nd and 3rd we might have had a chance. But no, let's swing away and hit into double play after double play. I was hoping when Rocco was fired we would finally get a manager who knew how to manage a game. I guess not.

Run expectancy 

Runners on 1st and 2nd and 0 out = 1.55

Runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out = 1.41

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-run-expectancy-matrix-reloaded-for-the-2020s/

 

[TheLeviathan]

4 hours ago, Hunter4848 said:

The franchise isn't rudderless, it has a very specific direction, and that is to cut costs across the board while pretending to be competing 

Correct, I guess I should've been more specific to the baseball ops side of things.  There is no real plan there because the main theme is about cost-cutting not about winning games.

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, Linus said:

Yep. This was a huge play in the game. Unfortunately, the Twins make these types of mistakes a lot. 

I saw the same thing, but when I watched the replay, the shortstop was lined up for a throw to third base, not to second base. When the outfielder gets the ball, he looks up for the cutoff man, and Lee was lined up with third base. I don’t think that’s Martin’s mistake. I think the shortstop told him to throw it there with his positioning.

[Maybe Next Year]

12 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Run expectancy 

Runners on 1st and 2nd and 0 out = 1.55

Runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out = 1.41

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-run-expectancy-matrix-reloaded-for-the-2020s/

 

Do those stats take into consideration that your hitters are going up against the ace of the opposing team? I highly doubt it. A runner on 3rd has more ways to score than just a hit. Passed ball, wild pitch, infield or outfield error, sac fly, suicide or safe squeeze. I'll take my chances on 1 out and a runner on 3rd. Especially when my team is facing the other teams ace and our bats are cold.

[NYCTK]

8 minutes ago, Maybe Next Year said:

Do those stats take into consideration that your hitters are going up against the ace of the opposing team? I highly doubt it. A runner on 3rd has more ways to score than just a hit. Passed ball, wild pitch, infield or outfield error, sac fly, suicide or safe squeeze. I'll take my chances on 1 out and a runner on 3rd. Especially when my team is facing the other teams ace and our bats are cold.

The Orioles don't really have an ace. So, yeah, those numbers do take all those possibilities into account. 

[JD-TWINS]

11 hours ago, Permanent Twins Fan said:

Hopefully this won't be predictive of the Twins offense in games to come. It is nice to see Ryan have a good start, and Buck and Keaschall have good offensive games. The Twins will likely struggle with lefties such as Rogers this season with how lefty loaded our lineup is. Great to see Taylor Rogers back in a Twins uniform. 

They had 8 RH batters in the line-up.

Rogers has the lowest ERA of all starters since the beginning of ‘25 ………. I think that was the issue.

[JD-TWINS]

6 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

The Orioles don't really have an ace. So, yeah, those numbers do take all those possibilities into account. 

Rogers has the lowest ERA in baseball as a starter (100+ innings minimum) since start of ‘25. …… lower than Skenes, etc.

[USAFChief]

2 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

The Orioles don't really have an ace. So, yeah, those numbers do take all those possibilities into account. 

One of the primary issues with a run expectancy chart is it takes nothing into account. Or everything, depending on how you look at it.

Thousands of 1st and 2nd, no out situations combined into one number doesn't tell you much. It ignores every iota of context. Who's running, pitching, hitting, playing defense. The score, the inning, the weather. A ground ball machine on the mound with Ryan Jeffers at the plate? The run expectancy is not 1.55. Nor is it 1.55 with the middle of the Yankee lineup due up against, say, Justin Topa.

The end result is, a run expectancy chart sounds informative but Isn't a useful tool to inform strategy. 

[David Maro]

Don't know what game people were watching but the score was 0-0 and Funderburk walked the leadoff hitter and Topa gave up a single up the middle putting men on first and third before Martin's mistake. Then Topa give up another single up the middle for the second run. Its time to get real about a pitcher who had a 19.00 ERA in ST. He should have been DFA'ed and another pitcher from St Paul given the opportunity.

[karcherd]

On the fly ball to left, Martin didn't get behind the ball either but this goes back to development.  They gave him minimal time in the outfield in the minors even though that was where it appeared he would end up.  So now he is learning in the big leagues and yes he is a major league ballplayer but reps and being comfortable do matter.  Remember this when Keaschall is thrown out there next.  And I still like Martin but it looks like he will playing against LH pitching just like two years ago.

As for pinch hitting for Lewis, if he is your one of your core players as their words and actions have said, you don't pinch hit for him in game 1.  Now if he is struggling in May or June then that is a different story. I watched a little bit of Shelton's press conference after the game and it sure sounds like he is more concerned with what hand the pitcher throws from and hit a batter from the opposite side regardless of matchup or how that player is doing that day.

So as others have said nothing has changed which was my biggest fear would happen.  They do not want to develop players they just try to outsmart the other team on every matchup.  But the best players ultimately win, so let's put our best players out there.  And it is not Kody Clemens, who may end up being the new Margot.

 

[chpettit19]

15 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I saw the same thing, but when I watched the replay, the shortstop was lined up for a throw to third base, not to second base. When the outfielder gets the ball, he looks up for the cutoff man, and Lee was lined up with third base. I don’t think that’s Martin’s mistake. I think the shortstop told him to throw it there with his positioning.

I'm not convinced it was Martin making that determination on his own, but he better not be looking for a cutoff man before he determines where he throws it. Infielders better be calling out where the throw goes so he knows where he's going without having to look down and read the field.

I don't think Lee was there for a throw to 3rd, I think he was there for a throw home. Basallo is a terribly slow runner. There are plenty of LFers who get to that ball, get behind it, and unleash a legit throw towards the plate. Martin's first mistake was not getting behind the ball so he could make a strong throw in. It wasn't super easy to get behind, but I think he could've rounded it more than he did. I think O'Neill would've taken 2nd even if Martin tried to throw there with his momentum going towards the wall and his lack of arm strength in general.

The throw decision was not at all the only problem on that play.

[NYCTK]

4 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Rogers has the lowest ERA in baseball as a starter (100+ innings minimum) since start of ‘25. …… lower than Skenes, etc.

Sure, in a half season he had really good results, but his xFIP was still a pretty middling and his career before then was also middling.

I'm not gonna say he's a bad pitcher, but I don't think anyone has him as a top 20 pitcher coming into the season. 

[LambchoP]

Looks like Ryan, Buxton, Keaschal and any top prospect debuts will be some of the few reasons to watch this year. I'm worried game one will be an indication of the season. Poor situational hitting and a daily pounding off our bullpen guys:(

[NYCTK]

11 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

One of the primary issues with a run expectancy chart is it takes nothing into account. Or everything, depending on how you look at it.

Thousands of 1st and 2nd, no out situations combined into one number doesn't tell you much. It ignores every iota of context. Who's running, pitching, hitting, playing defense. The score, the inning, the weather. A ground ball machine on the mound with Ryan Jeffers at the plate? The run expectancy is not 1.55. Nor is it 1.55 with the middle of the Yankee lineup due up against, say, Justin Topa.

The end result is, a run expectancy chart sounds informative but Isn't a useful tool to inform strategy. 

I mostly agree. If you're just coldly following the expectations, you become predictable and easier to defend. The element of surprise has value as well. 

I would hate a manager that is bunting in that situation a LOT, but they are more than welcome to do so from time to time to try to spark something. 

[DJL44]

34 minutes ago, Maybe Next Year said:

 Especially when my team is facing the other teams ace and our bats are cold.

Baltimore’s “ace” is not anything special. Kudos to you for knowing in advance that the bats would be “cold”. The rest of us only found that out after the fact. Your ability to predict the future is remarkable. Play your favorite lottery numbers now before that wears off.

[Maybe Next Year]

11 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Baltimore’s “ace” is not anything special. Kudos to you for knowing in advance that the bats would be “cold”. The rest of us only found that out after the fact. Your ability to predict the future is remarkable. Play your favorite lottery numbers now before that wears off.

Wow- what a condescending jerk! You must be so proud of yourself!

[DJL44]

27 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

One of the primary issues with a run expectancy chart is it takes nothing into account. Or everything, depending on how you look at it.

Thousands of 1st and 2nd, no out situations combined into one number doesn't tell you much. It ignores every iota of context. Who's running, pitching, hitting, playing defense. The score, the inning, the weather. A ground ball machine on the mound with Ryan Jeffers at the plate? The run expectancy is not 1.55. Nor is it 1.55 with the middle of the Yankee lineup due up against, say, Justin Topa.

The end result is, a run expectancy chart sounds informative but Isn't a useful tool to inform strategy. 

The situations yesterday were pretty typical so knowing the base rate is actually really useful. The pitcher wasn’t wild. The batters weren’t so bad that bunting makes sense. The weather wasn’t a factor.

[NYCTK]

14 minutes ago, karcherd said:

They gave him minimal time in the outfield in the minors even though that was where it appeared he would end up.

He's now played about 2,000 innings in the OF in his professional baseball career. I'm sorry, but getting behind a ball and knowing the situation and where you're throwing is not something that you really need time to develop. 

A lot of players either have the skill, instincts, and acumen for a position or you don't. Martin seems to have most of the skills, and his reads are mostly acceptable that he SHOULD be fine in LF, but his baseball IQ just seems really poor at that position. 

 

20 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't think Lee was there for a throw to 3rd, I think he was there for a throw home. Basallo is a terribly slow runner.

This was my read as well. I don't put any blame on Lee's positioning at all. The LF shouldn't really need a cutoff man to get it 2B from that position regardless.

Martin received that flyball like an infielder, just catching it and then getting it out of his hands as fast as he could while off balance, rather than getting underneath it and crow hopping that baby in with some oomph. 

[USAFChief]

15 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I mostly agree. If you're just coldly following the expectations, you become predictable and easier to defend. The element of surprise has value as well. 

I would hate a manager that is bunting in that situation a LOT, but they are more than welcome to do so from time to time to try to spark something. 

It was pretty clear by the middle innings this was going to be a low scoring game. One run becomes pretty important at that point. I generally don't like sacrificing, but there are times and places for it. Given the situation, the pitcher, and our lineup, I'd have sac bunted the 3rd time. For sure. 

[shimrod]

19 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I mostly agree. If you're just coldly following the expectations, you become predictable and easier to defend. The element of surprise has value as well. 

I would hate a manager that is bunting in that situation a LOT, but they are more than welcome to do so from time to time to try to spark something. 

Agreed. Programming the spreadsheet for "small ball" and blindly following it is as much a recipe for failure as three outcome game management. 

 

[DJL44]

31 minutes ago, David Maro said:

Don't know what game people were watching but the score was 0-0 and Funderburk walked the leadoff hitter and Topa gave up a single up the middle putting men on first and third before Martin's mistake. Then Topa give up another single up the middle for the second run. Its time to get real about a pitcher who had a 19.00 ERA in ST. He should have been DFA'ed and another pitcher from St Paul given the opportunity.

I misread the box score, but I’m still not willing to leap to the conclusion that Topa is hot garbage and doesn’t deserve an MLB job based on what happened yesterday. Spring training ERA is mostly useless as well. 

If they do cut Topa, the next man up is quite likely to put up an ERA over 5. Be careful what you wish for. You might get it.

[USAFChief]

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The situations yesterday were pretty typical so knowing the base rate is actually really useful. The pitcher wasn’t wild. The batters weren’t so bad that bunting makes sense. The weather wasn’t a factor.

Run expectancy charts are basically useless. It's like planning a trip based on the combined average miles per gallon of every vehicle in the US, including trucks and EV's. Doesn't tell you **** about when your car will run out of gas.

Edited March 27 by USAFChief

[USAFChief]

Just now, DJL44 said:

I misread the box score, but I’m still not willing to leap to the conclusion that Topa is hot garbage and doesn’t deserve an MLB job based on what happened yesterday. Spring training ERA is mostly useless as well. 

If they do cut Topa, the next man up is quite likely to put up an ERA over 5. Be careful what you wish for. You might get it.

The bullpen is an issue, with almost zero chance of being an asset?

I'm shocked. Shocked I tell you!