SPRING GAMES WEEK OF 3.15.26

[amjgt]

I'm fine with Ober attempting to get by on veteran guile for now.

In my mind, he's in the rotation this year until he proves that he can't make it work at 89mph. In spring training so far, he has. That probably won't continue, but I can't cut Ober from the rotation based on expected results over actual results

If he makes it work, then we reassess after the season. If he doesn't make it work (like many expect), then we make some changes in season. 

I do acknowledge that this might mean bringing in Giolito makes more sense. Preparing for an expected outcome is different that assuming the expected outcome. 

[Patzky]

2 minutes ago, amjgt said:

I'm fine with Ober attempting to get by on veteran guile for now.

In my mind, he's in the rotation this year until he proves that he can't make it work at 89mph. In spring training so far, he has. That probably won't continue, but I can't cut Ober from the rotation based on expected results over actual results

If he makes it work, then we reassess after the season. If he doesn't make it work (like many expect), then we make some changes in season. 

I do acknowledge that this might mean bringing in Giolito makes more sense. Preparing for an expected outcome is different that assuming the expected outcome. 

Yeah I get it, TD forum doesn't like the way Ober gets people out...

[thelanges5]

11 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Yeah I get it, TD forum doesn't like the way Ober gets people out...

Ober will get some run in the short term, he’s earned it. Giolito also wouldn’t be ready to throw in a game for a while anyways. I read a Gleeman article that we haven’t used less than seven pitchers in 15 years. We are going to get a chance to see just about everybody on the twins prospect list at some point in 2026.

[thelanges5]

Adolis made him pay for that hanging sweeper. 🚀

[Patzky]

1 minute ago, thelanges5 said:

Adolis made him pay for that hanging sweeper. 🚀

That's the difference between them and us.

[amjgt]

14 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Ober will get some run in the short term, he’s earned it. Giolito also wouldn’t be ready to throw in a game for a while anyways. I read a Gleeman article that we haven’t used less than seven pitchers in 15 years. We are going to get a chance to see just about everybody on the twins prospect list at some point in 2026.

In my opinion, Gleeman tends to overstate this a bit. 

It's undoubtably true, but I suspect that the 7 pitcher thing would apply to the vast vast majority of MLB teams. So in that way, by continually mentioning it (on the podcast or in print) he's exaggerating it in respect to how it affects the Twins compared to others.

I think the much more interesting data point would be how many starting pitchers get used for more than 2 starts in a given season. Openers throw a little bit of a wrench in how clean that data is, but in my opinion that type of analysis is more meaningful to what we are talking about. There are ALWAYS going to be spot starters coming up from AAA for one reason or another (illness, double headers, etc), but I don't really care about those very much. How many guys are going to be part of your regular rotation over the course of a season? THAT is what I care about. And I suspect the Twins, over the last decade, use an above average number in a given season.

[thelanges5]

11 minutes ago, amjgt said:

In my opinion, Gleeman tends to overstate this a bit. 

It's undoubtably true, but I suspect that the 7 pitcher thing would apply to the vast vast majority of MLB teams. So in that way, by continually mentioning it (on the podcast or in print) he's exaggerating it in respect to how it affects the Twins compared to others.

I think the much more interesting data point would be how many starting pitchers get used for more than 2 starts in a given season. Openers throw a little bit of a wrench in how clean that data is, but in my opinion that type of analysis is more meaningful to what we are talking about. There are ALWAYS going to be spot starters coming up from AAA for one reason or another (illness, double headers, etc), but I don't really care about those very much. How many guys are going to be part of your regular rotation over the course of a season? THAT is what I care about. And I suspect the Twins, over the last decade, use an above average number in a given season.

Last year we saw Pablo, Joe, Ober, SWR, Paddack, Festa, Matthews, Bradley, Ohl, Adams. I wasn’t trying to compare twins to other teams just saying that we are going to see our pitching depth on full display this summer. 

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

And floundering ABs from Twins getting free air conditioning via whizzing fastballs. 

The few games I've watched the "offense" has stunk

[Parfigliano]

55 minutes ago, Patzky said:

That's the difference between them and us.

Difference between most teams and us.

[Vanimal46]

Gleeman tweeted none of Ober’s 58 pitches today cracked 90 MPH. It’s time to press the panic button 

[Patzky]

3 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Gleeman tweeted none of Ober’s 58 pitches today cracked 90 MPH. It’s time to press the panic button 

Nah the weak ABs are the real panic button because that will be an issue for 100 percent of the games. 

[Parfigliano]

2 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Gleeman tweeted none of Ober’s 58 pitches today cracked 90 MPH. It’s time to press the panic button 

4seam 88mph slider84 change82

[RpR]

[RpR]

WOW, Twins batmen commit 9 strike outs, and Pitchers cause 3, while the Phillies batsmen commit 3 strike outs and their pitchers cause 9.

NOT a good sign.

 

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, amjgt said:

I'm fine with Ober attempting to get by on veteran guile for now.

In my mind, he's in the rotation this year until he proves that he can't make it work at 89mph. In spring training so far, he has. That probably won't continue, but I can't cut Ober from the rotation based on expected results over actual results

If he makes it work, then we reassess after the season. If he doesn't make it work (like many expect), then we make some changes in season. 

I do acknowledge that this might mean bringing in Giolito makes more sense. Preparing for an expected outcome is different that assuming the expected outcome. 

That's basically what Ober did last year, and I guess he made it work? To the tune of a 5 ERA. The Twins might as well play it out until the trade deadline to see if there's any improvement. But with each ST start, I am losing hope of finding the old Bailey Ober from 2023 and 2024.

[thelanges5]

Latest round of spring cuts:

OF Kyler Fedko
OF Kala'i Rosario
IF Tanner Schobel
 

[Patzky]

4 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Latest round of spring cuts:

OF Kyler Fedko
OF Kala'i Rosario
IF Tanner Schobel
 

Taken

[Over The Hill Again]

Any chance Ober get extended Spring Training, or is that only for documented injuries or late signings? But then he’s been on schedule for throwing this off season and spring training so far, so maybe this is what he is? 

[amjgt]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

That's basically what Ober did last year, and I guess he made it work? To the tune of a 5 ERA. The Twins might as well play it out until the trade deadline to see if there's any improvement. But with each ST start, I am losing hope of finding the old Bailey Ober from 2023 and 2024.

The possible difference between last year and this year is the hip injury.

I think many of us assumed that the hip injury is what caused the dip in velocity, but it's possible that his velocity is just down 2-3mph and it's unrelated to the hip. If we assume for a second that is the case, then it's possible his numbers trend better now that he's not dealing with the hip injury. 

Said a different way, if you attribute half of Ober's worse results in 2025 to the hip and the other half to a decrease in velocity, even if he doesn't get the velocity back, we could see better results than 2025 (though very unlikely as good as 2023/24).

Yes. I'm currently wearing my rose-colored glasses. 

[amjgt]

2 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Last year we saw Pablo, Joe, Ober, SWR, Paddack, Festa, Matthews, Bradley, Ohl, Adams. I wasn’t trying to compare twins to other teams just saying that we are going to see our pitching depth on full display this summer. 

The point of my previous post is that counting Ohl and Adams as starting pitching depth (because they DID start games) is a little bit of a stretch to me. 

They were starters in name only, not practice. 

Also, I was more commenting on Gleeman's general discussion of the topic, not your specific post about it. 

 

[stringer bell]

Can Bailey Ober survive as a jumbo right handed Jamie Moyer? I think there is some chance. He didn't throw hard today, but he mostly hit his spots and moved the ball around the zone. The margin is very small, but Ober has always been more pitcher than thrower. 

[Vanimal46]

38 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Can Bailey Ober survive as a jumbo right handed Jamie Moyer? I think there is some chance. He didn't throw hard today, but he mostly hit his spots and moved the ball around the zone. The margin is very small, but Ober has always been more pitcher than thrower. 

As a backend #5 pitcher, maybe? He wouldn't be any contending team's #3 pitcher like he's scheduled to be here. 

[strumdatjag]

Meanwhile, Liam Hendrix looked pretty good. Looks like the Twins will be able to rebuild the bullpen as a strength, but this starting rotation is more challenged than expected.   And the line up looks anemic.  
Is my opinion that excessive?

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, strumdatjag said:

Looks like the Twins will be able to rebuild the bullpen as a strength, 

Wut?

[thelanges5]

Enjoy the day off from Twins baseball ⚾️

6 games left until the season opener. BoSox x3, ATL, Tor, and TB. Tomorrow is also the Spring Breakout - our prospects against the Phils prospects. 

[amjgt]

12 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

As a backend #5 pitcher, maybe? He wouldn't be any contending team's #3 pitcher like he's scheduled to be here. 

For me, #1 vs #2 vs #3 vs #4 vs #5 is completely meaningless until the playoffs. 

You're either one of the 5 in the rotation or you're not.

[amjgt]

9 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Wut?

Yeah. Bullpens can be weird, but this is, without a doubt, the lowest expectations I have for a Twins bullpen this century. 

It's almost impossible to see a scenario where they are above average and it's REALLY easy to see them being one of the worst couple in the league. 

[strumdatjag]

11 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Wut?

There are reasons to be less pessimistic. I’m encouraged to see some veterans brought in like Hendricks and Rogers.   I like the addition of more left handers. Meanwhile, there are a number of starters like Ober and Festa who can bolster the bullpen.  I’m not saying the Twins will have the best bullpen in MLB but it’s not the disaster I expected after last year’s fire sale at the deadline. 

[Hubie29]

1 minute ago, strumdatjag said:

There are reasons to be less pessimistic. I’m encouraged to see some veterans brought in like Hendricks and Rogers.   I like the addition of more left handers. Meanwhile, there are a number of starters like Ober and Festa who can bolster the bullpen.  I’m not saying the Twins will have the best bullpen in MLB but it’s not the disaster I expected after last year’s fire sale at the deadline. 

I'm curious. What would be your definition of a disaster? A BP without Festa?

[stringer bell]

For the bullpen to be even okay, the Twins will have to have gambled and won a lot. I really don't know who the surest thing is among all of the choices. I expect some will work out, at least temporarily, but it's hard to see five or six guys step forward and be competent.