Spring Temperature Check: Who's Hot & Who's Cold in Twins' Camp? (March 1-4)

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of © Mike Watters-Imagn Images

It hasn’t been the best of starts to spring baseball for the Twins, having gone eight straight games without logging a win. The good news is that the winless streak is over. After a 2-2 tie with the Atlanta Braves and a 5-3 loss to the Rays, the Twins got back in the win column Wednesday with a 6-3 victory over Team Puerto Rico of the World Baseball Classic. 

The record isn’t the story in early March, but individual trends are starting to take shape. With that in mind, here’s the latest temperature check:

Who’s Hot? 🔥

Mick Abel

Abel was outstanding in his first start of the spring, and that continued in his second outing on Sunday against Atlanta. He spun three scoreless innings, allowing just one hit while striking out six and generating 10 whiffs on 43 pitches. His fastball, which touched 98.9 mph after topping out at 97.1 in his debut, showed both velocity and shape, and his breaking ball had sharp depth that hitters couldn’t square up. Through six spring innings, Abel has looked flat‑out dominant, and he’s making it clear why he deserves a spot in the Twins rotation to start the year.

Andrew Morris

After a rough first outing, Morris answered on Tuesday out of the bullpen, tossing three no‑hit innings with three strikeouts and two walks while throwing 34 of 58 pitches for strikes and generating six swinging strikes. His changeup and curveball command still wavered at times, but his fastball and cutter were better located, and more importantly, his velocity returned to normal after sitting a couple of ticks down in his first spring start. Considering how hard he was hit previously, this was exactly the type of bounce‑back you want to see.

Alan Roden

The plan was not to include Alan Roden in every single spring check-in article, yet here we are. After a 3-for-3 day on Wednesday that included a triple, he’s now 10-for-17 this spring with a pair of extra-base hits, a stolen base, and a pair of strikeouts and walks. He’s flashing the kind of consistent contact and extra‑base pop that’s going to make it hard to keep him off the Opening Day roster. 

Who’s Not? 🧊

Simeon Woods Richardson

It’s been a tough couple of turns for SWR. On Tuesday against Tampa Bay, he was charged with all five runs, allowing seven hits and a walk over three innings. That followed another shaky outing last week, bringing his recent totals to 13 hits and seven earned runs over his last five frames. The fastball has been the problem; he’s tried climbing the ladder early in counts, but hitters have consistently done damage against it. He adjusted later in Tuesday’s outing and leaned more on his secondaries with better results, but the early damage keeps putting him behind. With the rotation picture unsettled, these are innings he can’t afford to lose.

Aaron Sabato

It’s a tiny sample, but it hasn’t been an encouraging start for Sabato. He’s 1‑for‑7 with four strikeouts, and the contact quality hasn’t suggested bad luck. His average exit velocity on balls in play is down at 78 mph, so this isn’t a case of lasers finding gloves. Coming off his best minor‑league season, there was some quiet optimism that the first baseman could carry momentum into camp. So far, that hasn’t materialized. Plenty of time remains, but the early swings haven’t inspired much confidence.

Connor Prielipp

I don’t love putting him here, but the command just hasn’t been there. Across 3 ⅔ innings, Prielipp has walked five and surrendered a home run, and only 44 of his 81 pitches have gone for strikes. When he’s fallen behind, hitters have done damage; opponents currently own a 55 % hard‑hit rate against him this spring. The stuff still flashes, but the strike‑throwing needs to sharpen up quickly. It’s also worth noting that both of his appearances have followed Mick Abel, and the contrast between the two has been noticeable. For Prielipp, it’s less about stuff and more about execution right now.

It’s still early, and none of this locks anyone into or out of a role. Spring is about adjustments, building up innings, and finding rhythm. But as the games start stacking up, the separation between “ready now” and “still refining” becomes a little more noticeable.

View full article

[mark sills]

I think I would include Bradley in the not hot list more than Prielipp. 

[mickster]

Abel may just push his way into the rotation - that would be a positive if he earns it and it is just not given.     This is fluid, but right now it just might be   Ryan, Ober, Abel, Zebby, SWR???  I do think they will go with Bradley purely based on experience.   We have about a month to know for sure.

[jmlease1]

Happy to see Roden continuing to hit. Would be great if he has figured out some adjustments and can make it a real battle for the 4th OF slot; I simply do not want them giving it to Outman on scholarship.

Mick Abel has immense upside. If he's commanding his pitches he can be a front-line starter, and if he beats out someone for a rotation spot, that's great.

[terrydactyls]

5 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Happy to see Roden continuing to hit. Would be great if he has figured out some adjustments and can make it a real battle for the 4th OF slot; I simply do not want them giving it to Outman on scholarship.

Mick Abel has immense upside. If he's commanding his pitches he can be a front-line starter, and if he beats out someone for a rotation spot, that's great.

If Roden keeps hitting, I hope he's in the battle for the 2nd or 3rd OF slot, replacing either Larnach or Wallner in the starting lineup.

[twinstalker]

Roden has a chance and all, but he clearly takes advantage of spring training pitching.

2025 TOR  37 PA, .407 BA, .541 OBP, .704 SLG, 4 K

2026 MIN   16 PA, .500 BA, .563 OBP, .714 SLG, 2 K

As for Sabato, please, please if last year you ever thought he had a shot, understand how wrong you were and why.  Striking out is everything in baseball, especially as a predictor.  It's nuanced, but it's the key to understanding what you have.  So, as I've said for some time, be extra careful with Emmanuel Rodriguez.  In spring training's small sample, he's striking out 40% of the time vs pitchers who aren't trying to strike him out.  Not as their main goal, anyway.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

20 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Happy to see Roden continuing to hit. Would be great if he has figured out some adjustments and can make it a real battle for the 4th OF slot; I simply do not want them giving it to Outman on scholarship.

I agree with this entirely.  This is the part that I just can’t understand. If Roden continues to hit, there is absolutely NO reason to keep Outman around.  Roden MAY not be as good in the field as Outman, but he too can back up CF, which takes away most of the juice from having Outman on the team over Roden.  

[laloesch]

56 minutes ago, mickster said:

Abel may just push his way into the rotation - that would be a positive if he earns it and it is just not given.     This is fluid, but right now it just might be   Ryan, Ober, Abel, Zebby, SWR???  I do think they will go with Bradley purely based on experience.   We have about a month to know for sure.

SWR has been BRUTAL so far, but it's still early so we shall see.  Ober hasn't been great either which is not a good sign.  The Twins rotation might have gone from a strength last season to a liability this season and that's not good news.

[mark sills]

52 minutes ago, mickster said:

Abel may just push his way into the rotation - that would be a positive if he earns it and it is just not given.     This is fluid, but right now it just might be   Ryan, Ober, Abel, Zebby, SWR???  I do think they will go with Bradley purely based on experience.   We have about a month to know for sure.

not sure Ober is a lock to even be ready for beginning of the year. I think  Ryan Zebby Abel are the only three that look like locks. SWR and Ober  could be moved to the RP if they don't start showing they belong. 

[LambchoP]

If Abel keeps pitching like this I hope he gets rewarded with a rotation spot. Same with Roden in the OF. He has way more upside than Outman and has looked good enough in CF to be a backup to Buck. Wallner has looked lost at the plate and I just hope Jenkins, E Rod and Gonzalez light it up in AAA and force a call up conversation, because I don't see either Larnach or Wallner being long term answers.

[mikelink45]

Torii Hunter said, 

Spring training is for getting to know your teammates and forming a chemistry. I dont like it.

In other words, it is not how hot you are the first couple of weeks, it is how you finish Spring Training.  ST stats have no meaning.  If any of the projected starters go hitless would they sit at the beginning of the regular season?

I really like the hot and cold, but it is hard to get excited or disappointed at this stage.  My only comment from this list is that I saw Abel pitch (video) and I really liked his form.  I hope this works out.

When I went to google about this I got these examples: 

• 2012 Toronto Blue Jays: Finished 24-7 in spring training, creating high expectations, but finished the regular season with a disappointing 73-89 record.
• 1996 Detroit Tigers: Put together an outstanding spring training before finishing as one of the worst MLB teams, notes ESPN.
• Patrick Lennon (1996 Royals): A non-roster invitee who hit .395 with three home runs in spring training but did not translate that into a sustained major league career, notes Royals Review.
• Luis Gonzalez (2006 Mariners): A reliever who had a strong spring but failed to stick on the Opening Day roster, notes Lookout Landing. (ESPN)

Thanks for keeping us informed.

 

[mickster]

1 hour ago, twinstalker said:

Roden has a chance and all, but he clearly takes advantage of spring training pitching.

2025 TOR  37 PA, .407 BA, .541 OBP, .704 SLG, 4 K

2026 MIN   16 PA, .500 BA, .563 OBP, .714 SLG, 2 K

As for Sabato, please, please if last year you ever thought he had a shot, understand how wrong you were and why.  Striking out is everything in baseball, especially as a predictor.  It's nuanced, but it's the key to understanding what you have.  So, as I've said for some time, be extra careful with Emmanuel Rodriguez.  In spring training's small sample, he's striking out 40% of the time vs pitchers who aren't trying to strike him out.  Not as their main goal, anyway.

Erod is at the top of my list to trade when he is at peak value

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

If Roden keeps hitting, I hope he's in the battle for the 2nd or 3rd OF slot, replacing either Larnach or Wallner in the starting lineup.

I would love to see Roden, Buxton, and Martin as the primary OF this season with Wallner or Larnach as the 4th OF/DH. We don't need a 4th OF who can play CF if we keep Martin and Roden since they are at least passable there. Requires us to trade one of Wallner or Larnach so this may just be a pipe dream. If Martin or Roden fail, next man up is not Outman it's Emma or GG. Let's get the one pipeline we have on the OF moving.   

[Permanent Twins Fan]

4 hours ago, mark sills said:

I think I would include Bradley in the not hot list more than Prielipp. 

Taj Bradley must have read this comment. He's dealing versus the Yankees.

[jkcarew]

Outman is a true CF…Roden is not.

Meanwhile Outman has been fine offensively…if we’re just looking at this spring (relative to Roden). About the only thing I see in Roden over Outman is that Roden is a couple years younger than Outman…which, admittedly, isn’t nothing.

Rodriguez now has 25 K and 4 BB in 49 career spring training PA (8 and 1 in 17 PA this spring)…along with a 500 BABiP (667 this spring). 

[LA Vikes Fan]

I admit I haven’t been following the spring training results that closely, but I did see that Outman  has good statistics. I think the current Twins hitting coach was one of the Dodgers hitting coaches when Outman. had his big year in 2023. Has he looked good in CF? Maybe he’s playing his way onto the roster, much as I don’t like the idea. If he is, how do you fit him in if you still have Larnach and Wallner without sending Roden to AAA? Bell at 1B every day. Roden in RF, Martin in LF, Wallner a primary DH, with Outman a 4th OF? They have to sort this out and it sure looks like on of the LH OFs needs to be traded. 

[Linus]

17 hours ago, jkcarew said:

Outman is a true CF…Roden is not.

Meanwhile Outman has been fine offensively…if we’re just looking at this spring (relative to Roden). About the only thing I see in Roden over Outman is that Roden is a couple years younger than Outman…which, admittedly, isn’t nothing.

Rodriguez now has 25 K and 4 BB in 49 career spring training PA (8 and 1 in 17 PA this spring)…along with a 500 BABiP (667 this spring). 

Em Rod is worrisome. The guy swings and misses a ton. Yesterday was rough, in addition to the ks there was a looper hit to CF where he didn’t cover 20 yards and made a bad diving attempt on a ball that Buck would have caught standing up. That did not look like someone who could play CF in the bigs.