Minnesota Twins Opening Day Roster Projection, v3.0

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 minutes ago, srlarson said:

Might as well tear it all down...and scuttle the season...with Labor stoppage next year....take a 2 yr savings.....trade Ryan, Lopez, Jeffers.....cash the check from the Dodgers....hopefully team gets sold to owners who care!!  

I mean, I enjoy watching baseball. But maybe it's not for everyone.

[LewFordLives]

I think this roster projection is very close to what we'll see on opening day. With one exception, I think it makes sense.

My one disagreement is that I don't see how they can hide Kreidler on this roster. All of the infield bats are suspect. They just can't afford to carry a glove first utility guy who will turn into a giant hole in the lineup during the later innings. They gotta bring someone else into camp via free agency or trade. If not, I would probably go with Gray.

They also need another reliable bullpen arm, but there just isn't anyone else available on the market at this point, unless they swing a trade. Given who's in the organization right now, I agree with this projection of the bullpen.

[mikelink45]

Falvey is gone but what is Zoll's approach?  Falvey wanted the team to play whoever he acquired.  Will they still have that allegiance to guy's like Outman, Roden, etc? This roster looks really weak until we push Walker, Rodriguez and Gonzales to the front of the line and see Wallner, Larnach, Martin, Roden out of the starting discussion.

Pitching has to sort itself out in ST.  I hope nothing is guaranteed beyond Lopez, Ryan and SWR.  Otherwise we have Ober who lost his mojo last year and Abel, Mattews, Bradley, Festa who all come with great expectations, but miserable MLB accomplishments.  Wait and see.

For the sad BP - cycle in our prospects, we have gone beyond quality pickups on the outside unless you trade our OFs for something.

Kreidler - I have no hopes or expectations for. Compared to Castro and Farmer this is a giant step backwards.

[Greggory Masterson]

10 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Falvey is gone but what is Zoll's approach?  Falvey wanted the team to play whoever he acquired.  Will they still have that allegiance to guy's like Outman, Roden, etc? This roster looks really weak until we push Walker, Rodriguez and Gonzales to the front of the line and see Wallner, Larnach, Martin, Roden out of the starting discussion.

In fairness, Falvey acquired every player in the organization except Buxton (and some minor league signings over the past couple of days)

[NYCTK]

37 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

I'd rather see Martin in LF over Roden, Outman or Larnach. If he can keep his OBP high enough like last year and be a base stealer at the top of the lineup while playing solid OF defense, give him a shot. He's earned it.

I don't know what he did to EARN it. I'm OK with Martin and Roden getting a proper competition for that LF/4OF role, but Martin belongs nowhere near the top of the order. But I still have Roden as the significantly better bet than Martin, but that's mostly because I remember his atrocious defense in 2024. 

Martin had a great stretch at the end of August, but his season was still very questionable and I still don't think he's got the skillset to reach 1500 PAs in his career. Splitting his season into 3rds of approximately 60 PAs: 

1st: 645 OPS
2nd: 921 OPS
3rd: 648 OPS

I wouldn't say that this is a player to count on. To me he looks like he's, at best, a 700 OPS guy with iffy OF defense. Not useless, but not someone that should be handed a starting role, and especially not someone that should be at the top of the order. 

[DarrenPS]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

My take from the article is that every word said about Festa could be applied to Prielipp.

Rojas is a 2027 guy IMO & out of the picture until at least September. That said, “to be competitive” I’d stack Festa - Prielipp - Matthews all in the PEN if deemed necessary in Spring Training. It may take until early May to get one of them accustomed to a new role/regimen but ALL of them want to be in the Show and not in St. Paul, so I think they’re motivated to make it work. IMO.

Moving 3 starters to the pen is out of the question and would just be malpractice, you would be destroying their value

[mikelink45]

3 minutes ago, Greggory Masterson said:

In fairness, Falvey acquired every player in the organization except Buxton (and some minor league signings over the past couple of days)

Yes and we are no longer a threat.  We got a long list of Gallo - Outman additions to the starters and we often held on too long.

[stringer bell]

13 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I don't know what he did to EARN it. I'm OK with Martin and Roden getting a proper competition for that LF/4OF role, but Martin belongs nowhere near the top of the order. But I still have Roden as the significantly better bet than Martin, but that's mostly because I remember his atrocious defense in 2024. 

Martin had a great stretch at the end of August, but his season was still very questionable and I still don't think he's got the skillset to reach 1500 PAs in his career. Splitting his season into 3rds of approximately 60 PAs: 

1st: 645 OPS
2nd: 921 OPS
3rd: 648 OPS

I wouldn't say that this is a player to count on. To me he looks like he's, at best, a 700 OPS guy with iffy OF defense. Not useless, but not someone that should be handed a starting role, and especially not someone that should be at the top of the order. 

I don't think Martin earned any guarantees, but he played well when he was recalled from the minors in 2025. His defense and base running were much better and he hit decently. He provides contact and speed, two things lacking in the Twins'  roster.

60 PA segments are really small sample sizes. His entire body of work in 2025 was still a small sample size of 181 PAs. As a right handed hitter, a platoon role equals only 250-350 PAs in a full healthy season, so I think he should be given a chance to see if he can sustain or improve on his 2025 season before being relegated to bench/short side platoon player.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I get the sense that Bell and Caratini both could be ahead of Clemens on the 1b depth chart right? I'd be open to being wrong, but it's hard to see a true role for him that makes sense. This roster is so confusing still.

Yes and no? I think Clemens is valued for his defense, and they'd like to protect Bell by having him DH more.

Caratini is interesting, but a lot of what they're saying has to be taken with a grain of salt (aka, ignored as being Bee Ess). They have to keep Jeffers from pouting, they want to puff their new signing, all that. But one of the biggest reasons Caratini is here on a 2 year deal is it means we have a real catcher for 2027 regardless of what happens in 2026. Now, you can trade Jeffers without having to go into desperation mode at catcher. If you don't deal him and he leaves next season, you're not up the creek. Will they find time for him at 1B & DH? sure...but a lot of it will be fill-in for injury, not first choice.

I think part of the question on Clemens is whether they see him as the primary backup to Lewis and/or Keaschall, or if they're planning on Kreidler or whomever lands as the backup SS doing more of that?

[HeresWaldo]

For what it's worth I agree with this assessment of the pitching plan because the Twins absolutely love SP depth, so no shade intended regarding this article. But if they field this projected bullpen with Mick Abel, Zebby Matthews, and Connor Prielipp all in the minors and the then this bullpen performs poorly, that should be treated as a fireable offense. If they are at all serious about competing this year they can't field a low stuff bullpen with three of their most interesting arms just sitting at AAA waiting for an opportunity. I get that teams need SP depth and there's no such thing as too much SP depth, but if they field this projected bullpen it's not going to matter how deep the rotation is because the bullpen will knock them out of the race before June. The worse a defense is, the more important it is for the pitching staff to generate whiffs and minimize the number of balls in play. If you're going to field an infield defense of Jeffers, Bell, Keashall, Lee, Lewis you can't leave all your good high stuff arms in the minors. 

[DarrenPS]

It's crazy to me that Twins fans want to give up on Raya after 1 off season in AAA as a *checks notes* 22 year old for most of the season. He is 23 and will be until August. Guess what has more value in trades, AAA young starters, or AAAA relievers? Stop trying to move every starting pitcher to the pen and immediately counting them out

Same can be said for Kendry Rojas, he was 22 all of last season and will spend the entire 2026 season as a 23 year old. Do we not realize as a fan base how impressive it is to even make it to AAA at 22?

It would be better to trade pitchers than move everyone to the pen like these comments tend to want to do

[DJL44]

52 minutes ago, DarrenPS said:

Moving 3 starters to the pen is out of the question and would just be malpractice, you would be destroying their value

They have more value to the team in the bullpen than they have pitching in St. Paul. Top-end relievers get paid as much as #3 starters.

[NYCTK]

28 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I don't think Martin earned any guarantees, but he played well when he was recalled from the minors in 2025. His defense and base running were much better and he hit decently. He provides contact and speed, two things lacking in the Twins'  roster.

60 PA segments are really small sample sizes. His entire body of work in 2025 was still a small sample size of 181 PAs. As a right handed hitter, a platoon role equals only 250-350 PAs in a full healthy season, so I think he should be given a chance to see if he can sustain or improve on his 2025 season before being relegated to bench/short side platoon player.

I agree on the near zero value of those small samples. But the point being that he had a very short hot stretch, and outside of it was the same below replacement level player we watched in 2024. Same thing with Kody Clemens, which I think most people have come to terms with. 

I am not putting much weight in the short hot stretch. But at the same time, he does have an option year remaining so I won't be surprised, nor disappointed, to see him in AAA at any point. He, quite frankly, SHOULD spend more time in AAA than he does at the top of a major league batting order. 

Alan Roden still has the better resume and I expect him to outperform Martin in the 2026 season. But Trevor Larnach is the "best" of the 3 so they're both trying to take playing time from him for the time being. 

[Cris E]

They better be seeing Clemens for his glove, because a bunch of his value comes from a hot 3 HR game in September. If you swap three singles for those three HR his OPS+ drops from 96 to about 92 or 93 (raw OPS goes from .725 to .697, right around JJ Bleday and Brooks Baldwin.)  That's not a 1B bat. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

8 minutes ago, DarrenPS said:

It's crazy to me that Twins fans want to give up on Raya after 1 off season in AAA as a *checks notes* 22 year old for most of the season. He is 23 and will be until August. Guess what has more value in trades, AAA young starters, or AAAA relievers? Stop trying to move every starting pitcher to the pen and immediately counting them out

Same can be said for Kendry Rojas, he was 22 all of last season and will spend the entire 2026 season as a 23 year old. Do we not realize as a fan base how impressive it is to even make it to AAA at 22?

It would be better to trade pitchers than move everyone to the pen like these comments tend to want to do

It's not the commenters here that have said Raya would look good in the pen. For one, he ONLY pitched in relief in St. Paul the last month plus of the season last year, and Falvey et al have mentioned his name pretty extensively as a bullpen option going into the spring here. 

[bunsen82]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I keep coming back to, what if Jackson is the true backup catcher in a sense, and Caratini does catch some but is treated MORE like Donovan Solano was? It's not like Caratina grades out all that super defensively at catcher, and Jackson's arm to throw out runners is pretty strong.

I also still would be shocked if both Larnach and Wallner are on the team opening day. I THINK Larnach will be traded at some point and it's weird it hasn't happened yet.

Jackson has more value long-term than this year.  The Twins have control through 2028.   I just don't see why you would want to carry him through this year.  

I still think Jackson is flipped for something useful.  I could see him and a minor prospect being flipped for a decent reliever for a team in need.  We need a 7th inning, 8th inning guy.  Can we find someone we would match up with that may have a significant injury with minimal depth.  maybe.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Jackson has more value long-term than this year.  The Twins have control through 2028.   I just don't see why you would want to carry him through this year.  

I still think Jackson is flipped for something useful.  I could see him and a minor prospect being flipped for a decent reliever for a team in need.  We need a 7th inning, 8th inning guy.  Can we find someone we would match up with that may have a significant injury with minimal depth.  maybe.  

See, I'd keep him over a number of the left handed hitting corner types we have on the roster. At least he provides solid defense as a baseline, even if it is for a backup catcher.

[stringer bell]

8 minutes ago, DarrenPS said:

It's crazy to me that Twins fans want to give up on Raya after 1 off season in AAA as a *checks notes* 22 year old for most of the season. He is 23 and will be until August. Guess what has more value in trades, AAA young starters, or AAAA relievers? Stop trying to move every starting pitcher to the pen and immediately counting them out

Same can be said for Kendry Rojas, he was 22 all of last season and will spend the entire 2026 season as a 23 year old. Do we not realize as a fan base how impressive it is to even make it to AAA at 22?

It would be better to trade pitchers than move everyone to the pen like these comments tend to want to do

No one wants to convert every starter to a bullpen role if they don't make the Opening Day rotation. That said, the Twins are Exhibit A for turning starters into functional relievers going back as far as Eddie Guardado, Rick Aguilera and Joe Nathan. Guys who know a whole lot more about pitching than I do make those decisions--they aren't right 100% of the time, but there are so many examples that it must be a thing to convert starters to the bullpen.

Further, I think the fan base doesn't want to see Zebby, Abel and Preliepp use all their bullets pitching for the Saints. Lastly, if there are innings limitations on guys like Festa and Preliepp, they can be better managed out of a bullpen. Being sent to the bullpen is not a guarantee that a guy will never get back to the rotation. I have advocated getting most of the best arms on the major league team and sorting out roles as we go along.

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I agree on the near zero value of those small samples. But the point being that he had a very short hot stretch, and outside of it was the same below replacement level player we watched in 2024. Same thing with Kody Clemens, which I think most people have come to terms with. 

I am not putting much weight in the short hot stretch. But at the same time, he does have an option year remaining so I won't be surprised, nor disappointed, to see him in AAA at any point. He, quite frankly, SHOULD spend more time in AAA than he does at the top of a major league batting order. 

Alan Roden still has the better resume and I expect him to outperform Martin in the 2026 season. But Trevor Larnach is the "best" of the 3 so they're both trying to take playing time from him for the time being. 

Martin doesn't need to spend more time in AAA. He has a .288/.419/.397 line there in 519 PA. Same for Roden - his slash is .320/.411/.505 in 428 PA at AAA.

I think either is a good fit for the #9 hitter ahead of Buxton.

[stringer bell]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Martin doesn't need to spend more time in AAA. He has a .288/.419/.397 line there in 519 PA. Same for Roden - his slash is .320/.411/.505 in 428 PA at AAA.

I think either is a good fit for the #9 hitter ahead of Buxton.

It probably depends on #25, but I'd much rather he hit lower in the lineup. Solo homers don't win many games, especially in the first inning.

[NYCTK]

4 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Martin doesn't need to spend more time in AAA. He has a .288/.419/.397 line there in 519 PA. Same for Roden - his slash is .320/.411/.505 in 428 PA at AAA.

I think either is a good fit for the #9 hitter ahead of Buxton.

Yes, but due to roster construction and the fact that they both have options remaining, no one should be surprised to see them bounce up and down. They are pretty redundant, filling the same role, so I can imagine them playing musical chairs throughout the season. 

[bunsen82]

12 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

See, I'd keep him over a number of the left handed hitting corner types we have on the roster. At least he provides solid defense as a baseline, even if it is for a backup catcher.

I can't argue with that take one bit.  I feel like we have a mashed up roster anyways this year,  if he is the extra bat we are carrying so be it.    

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

See, I'd keep him over a number of the left handed hitting corner types we have on the roster. At least he provides solid defense as a baseline, even if it is for a backup catcher.

They can't keep three catchers on a roster with no shortstop.

[HerbieFan]

Thank you for not putting Outman on there.  An I think I'd rather see Prielipp in the pen than Klein

[Cris E]

Hey look, Ben Rortvedt just hit waivers. You know what, this 26 man would look sweeeet with four catchers...

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just now, DJL44 said:

They can't keep three catchers on a roster with no shortstop.

They can if Caratini is being used like Donovan Solano was a few years back. Swiss army knife position of sorts. 

But agreed, a lot of my fears for the defense really come down to if Brooks Lee can be a competent/good SS or not. He hasn't shown that yet, so we'll see if he can be that now or not.

[DarrenPS]

29 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They have more value to the team in the bullpen than they have pitching in St. Paul. Top-end relievers get paid as much as #3 starters.

Assuming they will magically become "top end relievers" is hilarious

You are more valuable as a starter. Period

[DJL44]

31 minutes ago, Cris E said:

They better be seeing Clemens for his glove, because a bunch of his value comes from a hot 3 HR game in September. If you swap three singles for those three HR his OPS+ drops from 96 to about 92 or 93 (raw OPS goes from .725 to .697, right around JJ Bleday and Brooks Baldwin.)  That's not a 1B bat. 

Clemens might be the best defender in the entire infield. If not Clemens, it's Royce.

15 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

It probably depends on #25, but I'd much rather he hit lower in the lineup. Solo homers don't win many games, especially in the first inning.

Buxton is their best hitter. Get him up to bat as much as possible. I wouldn't bat him lower than #2.

[bunsen82]

14 minutes ago, Cris E said:

Hey look, Ben Rortvedt just hit waivers. You know what, this 26 man would look sweeeet with four catchers...

Hell,  why not pick him up and horde low end backup catchers.   Someone is going to need one sooner or later.  I wouldn't be surprised if someone trades with the Reds.   

[DarrenPS]

35 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

No one wants to convert every starter to a bullpen role if they don't make the Opening Day rotation. That said, the Twins are Exhibit A for turning starters into functional relievers going back as far as Eddie Guardado, Rick Aguilera and Joe Nathan. Guys who know a whole lot more about pitching than I do make those decisions--they aren't right 100% of the time, but there are so many examples that it must be a thing to convert starters to the bullpen.

Further, I think the fan base doesn't want to see Zebby, Abel and Preliepp use all their bullets pitching for the Saints. Lastly, if there are innings limitations on guys like Festa and Preliepp, they can be better managed out of a bullpen. Being sent to the bullpen is not a guarantee that a guy will never get back to the rotation. I have advocated getting most of the best arms on the major league team and sorting out roles as we go along.

Read through the comments, you will see the fanbase disagrees or some do. There are guys, including a guy liking your comments, asking for at least 3+ of our depth to be moved to the pen.

It is better to keep them in AAA "wasting bullets" as starters then move everyone to the pen. Look at Bubba Chandler last year as a prime example. Keep your starter quality youth as starters as long as possible.

When they fail in the bigs is when you move them to the pen. Duran is the only example of us not doing that. Jax, Louie, Sands, all of the older guys come up as starters always