Free Agent or Prospect

[Major League Ready]

Which position players should be filled by free agents.  

1B - Replace Clemens / Fedko and Sabato / Mendez as long shots

2B - Replace Keaschall

3B - Replace Lewis

SS - Replace Lee and block Culpepper

LF - Replace Martin / Roden and Block Jenkins / Rodriguez / Gonzalez / Fedko

CF - Buxton

RF - Replace Wallner and block Roden / Jenkins / Rodrigue / Gonzalez

 

[MGX]

We don't know what the Twins intentions are this year - are they in full rebuild or are they trying to compete?

If the answer is rebuilding, then I hope they don't sign any free agents & see what they have internally.

If they're trying to compete then at a minimum they need to upgrade SS & the bullpen through FA/trades. A couple of additional upgrades beyond that would be nice, but that may be hoping for too much.

As for blocking players like Culpepper, Jenkins or Rodriguez. I'm not concerned about, when those players kick the door down, they'll get an opportunity.

 

[Major League Ready]

18 minutes ago, MGX said:

As for blocking players like Culpepper, Jenkins or Rodriguez. I'm not concerned about, when those players kick the door down, they'll get an opportunity.

 

How does that work.  Let's say they go sign or trade for a really good SS.  They are not replacing that player with Culpepper.  They would need to replace Lewis or Keaschall with Culpepper.   They would be in a similar position if they replaced Wallner except 3 of their top 10 prospects are OFers.  IDK how they get around blocking prospects if they replace these positions with a high-quality veteran.   Either the veteran starts or the prospect starts but they can't both be everyday players.

They were below average in the corner OF spots, 1B/3B and SS so one free agent is not making a dent.  They would need to replace at least 2-3 position players.  In other words, they can either rebuild or they can switch coarse in the middle of this rebuild and giving prospects would need to wait for injuries to get a shot. 

[Chembry]

In my opinion, the only FA I would consider is a 1B. That is only if the Twins don't address that need through trade.  I don't think Mendez will be ready for at least another year or two.   

I would like Culpepper, Rodriguez, and Jenkins up as soon as they are ready.  If Lewis is having another down year, he can platoon with Lee when Culpepper comes up.  Roden has also played 1B in the past and could slip in there as well when Jenkins/Rodriguez get the call.    

I would rather have FA money spent on the bullpen. 

That being said, we need to have some flexibility to accommodate returning talent if we are active in the trade market.  For example, if the Cubs sign Bregman, could we swing Matt Shaw in a trade?  Would he play 3B (move Royce to 1B?) or 2B (move Keaschall to 1B)?  Same for the Red Sox, a Joe Ryan for Marcelo Mayer trade has been floated by industry sources.  If they sign Bregman, would the Twins swing a trade for Mayer?  If the Mariners come calling, I hope the Twins ask for Emerson and/or Ford.  If the Tigers come calling for Ryan, I hope we ask for McGonigle, Clark, Briceno, etc... Could we swing a trade for Soderstrom from the As (as suggested by some here)?  He was a GG finalist in LF this year, but came up as a C and also plays 1B.  

[chpettit19]

If we're being realistic about the types of FAs they can bring in, then there's no position that should be replaced by a FA. If they were looking at the Tucker/Bichette/Alonzo levels of free agents then any position should be replaced by a FA.

There's no prospect in our system that should get priority over Tucker in the OF or Bichette in the IF. None. And there never will be. Those are stars in their prime. If they could get those guys they should. But they can't/won't.

There's no free agent in the 1-year, cheap deal category that should get priority over any prospect in our system. Those guys have no future here and next year is (in my opinion) about setting the team up for the future. So, they shouldn't bring in any of those guys. Even if it means losing 130 games. 

If you can get a FA that can help in 2027 and beyond, bring them in. If you can't, don't. 

[tony&rodney]

I'm not setting myself up for disappointment again. The last two offseasons were brutal. Our leadership decided the Twins had the roster to win it all. We all know that corporate speak is to be supportive and say how exemplary the employees are and that business is going great, but Falvey gave numerous interviews where he went off conversation to state how he felt the team was in a great place and had all the elements to win. This could happen again. The Twins roster may be set, more or less right now. "We tried blah, blah ...."

That said, I remain hopeful because I do believe people can change. The front office is faced with the reality that many other teams, such as Milwaukee, Cleveland, and a few others face most years - a lower budget. I would be surprised if the budget fell below $70M in the same way I would be surprised if it was above $120M. There are opportunities to improve the talent within the roster but it will require some guts and gambling. 

The only free agents I can see being signed are a few relief pitchers in late January or early February. However, the one certainty is that we simply have zero idea what goes on in Falvey's brain or what he views as good baseball or his thoughts on making attempts to draw fans to the Twins product or how he evaluates people. No doubt the guy has some skills and clearly there are important people (the Pohlads) who are enamored with him.

I don't know what will happen. I am looking for trades. I'm willing to gamble at the expense of moving on from some potential. Another season of a poor baseball team doesn't excite me. Hope is all I have for the Twins.

[MGX]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

How does that work.  Let's say they go sign or trade for a really good SS.  They are not replacing that player with Culpepper.  They would need to replace Lewis or Keaschall with Culpepper.   They would be in a similar position if they replaced Wallner except 3 of their top 10 prospects are OFers.  IDK how they get around blocking prospects if they replace these positions with a high-quality veteran.   Either the veteran starts or the prospect starts but they can't both be everyday players.

They were below average in the corner OF spots, 1B/3B and SS so one free agent is not making a dent.  They would need to replace at least 2-3 position players.  In other words, they can either rebuild or they can switch coarse in the middle of this rebuild and giving prospects would need to wait for injuries to get a shot. 

If there good enough to push there way on to the roster then great, if not I'm not worried. Either way their not blocked.

Whatever SS the Twins could sign as an upgrade isn't going to keep Culpepper from developing & if he keeps proving himself, playing for the Twins. Even if we signed Bichette (which there is no way we would) he wouldn't block Culpepper. If the Twins as a franchise ever get to the point where they have so much talent that we're blocking prospects that would be nice problem to have.

[Mike Sixel]

15 minutes ago, MGX said:

If there good enough to push there way on to the roster then great, if not I'm not worried. Either way their not blocked.

Whatever SS the Twins could sign as an upgrade isn't going to keep Culpepper from developing & if he keeps proving himself, playing for the Twins. Even if we signed Bichette (which there is no way we would) he wouldn't block Culpepper. If the Twins as a franchise ever get to the point where they have so much talent that we're blocking prospects that would be nice problem to have.

How great do they need to be to push their way on? Do you think this team will cut bait with a mediocre veteran?  Has this happened ever?

[MGX]

16 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

How great do they need to be to push their way on? Do you think this team will cut bait with a mediocre veteran?  Has this happened ever?

If it's a mediocre veteran that certainly isn't going to stop Culpepper, assuming he continues to prove himself.

Anyways, as I said in my original post we don't know if they're rebuilding or competing. If they're rebuilding they have no need for any FA's of note.

If they decided to compete I hope they wouldn't hold back on signing an FA who can help out, because of worry about "blocking" a prospect.

[Parfigliano]

Any position player FA signings would be low rent leftovers after teams with money are done signing FA's.  No thanks rather see what players already in the organization have/don't have to offer.

[RpR]

1 minute ago, Parfigliano said:

Any position player FA signings would be low rent leftovers after teams with money are done signing FA's.  No thanks rather see what players already in the organization have/don't have to offer.

Fortunately the Twins Org. people in charge do not seem to want to have two AAA teams next summer.

[Parfigliano]

34 minutes ago, MGX said:

If it's a mediocre veteran that certainly isn't going to stop Culpepper, assuming he continues to prove himself.

Anyways, as I said in my original post we don't know if they're rebuilding or competing. If they're rebuilding they have no need for any FA's of note.

If they decided to compete I hope they wouldn't hold back on signing an FA who can help out, because of worry about "blocking" a prospect.

I don't think this FO has ever worried about a FA signing blocking a prospect.  Especially if they are 80+ games into the year and that FA has proven to be terrible.

[Parfigliano]

3 minutes ago, RpR said:

Fortunately the Twins Org. people in charge do not seem to want to have two AAA teams next summer.

They may not want two AAA teams but it's what they have.  The quicker they accept that the better for the long term prospects of the organization.

[DJL44]

They absolutely need a free agent catcher. Jeffers can’t catch 162 games.

The rest will be decided after trades are made depending on what they get in return.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

They may not want two AAA teams but it's what they have.  The quicker they accept that the better for the long term prospects of the organization.

There is a benefit for young players to play with teammates who are talented professionals. It shows them good habits and pushes them to improve. 

[stringer bell]

3 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Any position player FA signings would be low rent leftovers after teams with money are done signing FA's.  No thanks rather see what players already in the organization have/don't have to offer.

As far as I'm concerned, the free agent market only provides placeholders who should get a one-year deal. First base and alternate catcher are obvious positions where adding a player seems essential unless someone is added via trade.

There is no one in the upper minors who can be counted on to fill those roles.  

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

How great do they need to be to push their way on? Do you think this team will cut bait with a mediocre veteran?  Has this happened ever?

I agree but why use a mediocre veteran as the bar?  Signing that type of player would insure they remain bad or mediocre at best.  Why would any of us advocate or care if they sign a mediocre veteran.  They would be better off staying with the prearb guys they have and hoping for improvement.

The type of free agent that would matter and that any of us care about is simply not a guy you sign and then replace.  Everyone advocating for free agents is speaking conceptually and assuming they can play the acquired and free agents.  They are bad at several positions.  Therefore, they would need to sign at least 2 if not 3 meaningful free agent position players to have a reasonable shot at contending.. Then, you still have no BP.  That would cost a minimum of $30M to fix. 

It's absolute folly to think they are going to buy a team and if they were to buy a team, it's even more absurd to think they would replace those players with prospects.  The only way those prospects get a chance is through injury.   Of course, you already know this.  Rebuilding teams don't sign expensive veterans, especially when they have guys expected to be ready soon.  The Yankees held of on SS when Volpe was in the wings.  The Twins are not signing a SS, 2B, 3B or OFer.  Arraez, I could see it if the price tag is modest.

[Vanimal46]

No FA making over $1.5 million will be signed before January 1, 2026. I'd argue longer. So buckle up and discuss this topic for months. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I agree but why use a mediocre veteran as the bar?  Signing that type of player would insure they remain bad or mediocre at best.  Why would any of us advocate or care if they sign a mediocre veteran.  They would be better off staying with the prearb guys they have and hoping for improvement.

The type of free agent that would matter and that any of us care about is simply not a guy you sign and then replace.  Everyone advocating for free agents is speaking conceptually and assuming they can play the acquired and free agents.  They are bad at several positions.  Therefore, they would need to sign at least 2 if not 3 meaningful free agent position players to have a reasonable shot at contending.. Then, you still have no BP.  That would cost a minimum of $30M to fix. 

It's absolute folly to think they are going to buy a team and if they were to buy a team, it's even more absurd to think they would replace those players with prospects.  The only way those prospects get a chance is through injury.   Of course, you already know this.  Rebuilding teams don't sign expensive veterans, especially when they have guys expected to be ready soon.  The Yankees held of on SS when Volpe was in the wings.  The Twins are not signing a SS, 2B, 3B or OFer.  Arraez, I could see it if the price tag is modest.

Because that's what they've done. Sign mediocre veterans and not bench them. Are people even watching the same team as me?

[Parfigliano]

30 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Because that's what they've done. Sign mediocre veterans and not bench them. Are people even watching the same team as me?

It's what they do.  Sign mediocre or worse vet and block young player already in TC system.  Play vet and continue to play vet despite it being obvious said vet is beyond terrible and done as a MLB player.

Repeat next year.

 

[old nurse]

13 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

How does that work.  Let's say they go sign or trade for a really good SS.  They are not replacing that player with Culpepper.  They would need to replace Lewis or Keaschall with Culpepper.   They would be in a similar position if they replaced Wallner except 3 of their top 10 prospects are OFers.  IDK how they get around blocking prospects if they replace these positions with a high-quality veteran.   Either the veteran starts or the prospect starts but they can't both be everyday players.

They were below average in the corner OF spots, 1B/3B and SS so one free agent is not making a dent.  They would need to replace at least 2-3 position players.  In other words, they can either rebuild or they can switch coarse in the middle of this rebuild and giving prospects would need to wait for injuries to get a shot. 

The course of action with free agents could be one year contracts. Of course the club is going to asses when the prospects will be ready. If the prospect is deemed ready now, the course would be to not sign the free agent. If the course of prospect development is probable midseason, a free agent on a one year deal still could be signed.and become trade bait. Of course no development will happen with the Twins prospects at OF 1b/3b and SS. That thought is as coarse as 40 grit sandpaper 

[Major League Ready]

11 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Because that's what they've done. Sign mediocre veterans and not bench them. Are people even watching the same team as me?

I was coming at it from what would be the point of signing those players.  Why would anyone advocate abandoning the rebuild they have already started to acquire average players.  While I agree that's what they have done in the past, they were patching holes on teams that had a chance.  It makes zero sense at this point and they are not blocking spots and spending money on that type of player in a rebuild other than 1B and RPs.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

The course of action with free agents could be one year contracts. Of course the club is going to asses when the prospects will be ready. If the prospect is deemed ready now, the course would be to not sign the free agent. If the course of prospect development is probable midseason, a free agent on a one year deal still could be signed.and become trade bait. Of course no development will happen with the Twins prospects at OF 1b/3b and SS. That thought is as coarse as 40 grit sandpaper 

This is one of the first posts I have seen that actually considers how the transition between acquired players and prospects.  My guess is they are confident Jenkins is up this year.  Years of control don't change if he is in AAA for 5 weeks or 5 months so they are bringing him up relatively early baring an unforeseen struggle at AAA.   They are not spending money when they expect Jenkins and Martin has earned the other corner spot.  Not to mention they will give Roden an opportunity.

Same basic story with Culpepper.  Plus, they probably have not given up on Lee.  SS cost a lot and often fade at least somewhat relatively young.  They are not going there with Lee and Culpepper ready.  I also have a suspicion they acquire a prospect SS in trade.  

2B is Keaschall and Lewis is getting another half-season at least before they would cut bait with him.

Catcher could definitely be a 1 year deal but with little of the horizon I could see a 2 year deal for Caratini.

1 year for Lois Arraez to build his value after a relatively bad year could make sense for both parties.  If I were betting on any free agent going to the Twins it would be Arraez.

BP has a lot of needs.  I would like to see them sign quality RPs to multi-year deals.  We need a lot of help and they have the potential of a good return at the deadline.  

Do you see a position other than 1B or catcher where they would sign a 1-year free agent or any FA?

[DJL44]

12 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

No FA making over $1.5 million will be signed before January 1, 2026. I'd argue longer. So buckle up and discuss this topic for months. 

February 1, unless it’s at catcher. That market dries up in December.

[Mike Sixel]

6 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

This is one of the first posts I have seen that actually considers how the transition between acquired players and prospects.  My guess is they are confident Jenkins is up this year.  Years of control don't change if he is in AAA for 5 weeks or 5 months so they are bringing him up relatively early baring an unforeseen struggle at AAA.   They are not spending money when they expect Jenkins and Martin has earned the other corner spot.  Not to mention they will give Roden an opportunity.

Same basic story with Culpepper.  Plus, they probably have not given up on Lee.  SS cost a lot and often fade at least somewhat relatively young.  They are not going there with Lee and Culpepper ready.  I also have a suspicion they acquire a prospect SS in trade.  

2B is Keaschall and Lewis is getting another half-season at least before they would cut bait with him.

Catcher could definitely be a 1 year deal but with little of the horizon I could see a 2 year deal for Caratini.

1 year for Lois Arraez to build his value after a relatively bad year could make sense for both parties.  If I were betting on any free agent going to the Twins it would be Arraez.

BP has a lot of needs.  I would like to see them sign quality RPs to multi-year deals.  We need a lot of help and they have the potential of a good return at the deadline.  

Do you see a position other than 1B or catcher where they would sign a 1-year free agent or any FA?

Catcher and bullpen for me. Roll the dice at first. 

I'd probably move Lewis to first, Lee to third, and start Culpeper, but they won't. 

[DocBauer]

Gotta find a backup catcher from somewhere. Hopefully that's just around $3M.

If the budget had enough room for an inexpensive, veteran glove man for a utility spot, I wouldn't object. Right now, Fitzgerald is probably the #1 option and while it could be worse, that's also not great.

The whole "just get someone cheap every year to play 1B wnd just cross your fingers" is getting beyond frustrating. As well as ridiculous. Currently, the unproven Fedko and Roden have some 1B experience. Young Mendez is going to get some opportunity at 1B, but he's only just started. Amick has a chance to be a solid candidate. But we're basically talking about rookies and AA prospects.

So personally, I'm OK with one more year of the 1B carousel in hopes of actually finding a couple internal options by 2027. I like that option better than utility man Clemens or just open auditions for the prospect that would stink the least.

But if they go the FA route...versus trade or immediate conversion...it's got to be someone better than France.

But other than that, on the position side, it should be existing players and prospects, prospects, and prospects. 

 

[Major League Ready]

44 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Gotta find a backup catcher from somewhere. Hopefully that's just around $3M.

If the budget had enough room for an inexpensive, veteran glove man for a utility spot, I wouldn't object. Right now, Fitzgerald is probably the #1 option and while it could be worse, that's also not great.

The whole "just get someone cheap every year to play 1B wnd just cross your fingers" is getting beyond frustrating. As well as ridiculous. Currently, the unproven Fedko and Roden have some 1B experience. Young Mendez is going to get some opportunity at 1B, but he's only just started. Amick has a chance to be a solid candidate. But we're basically talking about rookies and AA prospects.

So personally, I'm OK with one more year of the 1B carousel in hopes of actually finding a couple internal options by 2027. I like that option better than utility man Clemens or just open auditions for the prospect that would stink the least.

But if they go the FA route...versus trade or immediate conversion...it's got to be someone better than France.

But other than that, on the position side, it should be existing players and prospects, prospects, and prospects. 

 

I think it's going to be that kind of year Doc.  Unless they drastically change course, it will be a year where they audition solutions.  It would be nice to have someone as athletic as Fedko or Roden at 1B.  I would love to know which players among the group you mentioned they have working on 1B drills over the winter.  Is it possible they have GG or Rosario working on some 1B?  It's a potential career boost for any of the guys we are talking about so I would hope the plan has already been put in place. 

[old nurse]

13 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I think it's going to be that kind of year Doc.  Unless they drastically change course, it will be a year where they audition solutions.  It would be nice to have someone as athletic as Fedko or Roden at 1B.  I would love to know which players among the group you mentioned they have working on 1B drills over the winter.  Is it possible they have GG or Rosario working on some 1B?  It's a potential career boost for any of the guys we are talking about so I would hope the plan has already been put in place. 

Third effing time this site has reloaded and wiped out what I typed.. 

[old nurse]

22 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

This is one of the first posts I have seen that actually considers how the transition between acquired players and prospects.  My guess is they are confident Jenkins is up this year.  Years of control don't change if he is in AAA for 5 weeks or 5 months so they are bringing him up relatively early baring an unforeseen struggle at AAA.   They are not spending money when they expect Jenkins and Martin has earned the other corner spot.  Not to mention they will give Roden an opportunity.

Same basic story with Culpepper.  Plus, they probably have not given up on Lee.  SS cost a lot and often fade at least somewhat relatively young.  They are not going there with Lee and Culpepper ready.  I also have a suspicion they acquire a prospect SS in trade.  

2B is Keaschall and Lewis is getting another half-season at least before they would cut bait with him.

Catcher could definitely be a 1 year deal but with little of the horizon I could see a 2 year deal for Caratini.

1 year for Lois Arraez to build his value after a relatively bad year could make sense for both parties.  If I were betting on any free agent going to the Twins it would be Arraez.

BP has a lot of needs.  I would like to see them sign quality RPs to multi-year deals.  We need a lot of help and they have the potential of a good return at the deadline.  

Do you see a position other than 1B or catcher where they would sign a 1-year free agent or any FA?

Short version they have one player with a core OPS, Buxton. They need 3 more, Wallner is capable of doing that but has not played a full major league season yet. Keaschall is capable of being number 3 core guy. Number 4 would be late in the season Gonzales as he adjusts or Jenkins if he progresses. The real fourth is if they moved Jefferson to 1b full time.  They have players who might be solid players but not have done it consistently, That would be Lewis and Martin.  Then there is the development is not linear but I hope it is not done yet with Lee Julian and Larnach.  The team needs 2 catchers and a backup shortstop and a closer or two. Look for any and every rebound candidate for the closer job to be brought in. If the reliever wants a closer paycheck, they pretty much need to be a closer. The Twins give opportunity. 

[Major League Ready]

44 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Short version they have one player with a core OPS, Buxton. They need 3 more, Wallner is capable of doing that but has not played a full major league season yet. Keaschall is capable of being number 3 core guy. Number 4 would be late in the season Gonzales as he adjusts or Jenkins if he progresses. The real fourth is if they moved Jefferson to 1b full time.  They have players who might be solid players but not have done it consistently, That would be Lewis and Martin.  Then there is the development is not linear but I hope it is not done yet with Lee Julian and Larnach.  The team needs 2 catchers and a backup shortstop and a closer or two. Look for any and every rebound candidate for the closer job to be brought in. If the reliever wants a closer paycheck, they pretty much need to be a closer. The Twins give opportunity. 

Makes perfect sense but I am hoping for a more optimistic end game to play out over 2026-27.  I am hoping Jenkins and Culpepper step up in the same fashion Keaschall did last year.  Those two have the highest probability and should be here the soonest.

Then, we have the less certain guys who hopefully show up a little later in the year.  It would be big if Rodriguez would realize his potential.  He has a very complete game including hitting LHP.   Martin is the 4th OFer in that scenario and he can play a little 2B.

In this scenario, Lewis just needs to step up to league average offensively now that his defense is above average and he would be a nice complementary player.  This leaves catcher and 1B.  Best case scenario for Tait is 2027 and it's going to take them a couple years to rebuild the BP.  However, we have a pretty good shot at having a fun team to watch in 2027.

In my optimistic view, this could be a very good core by 2028 with a lot of cheap talent and payroll room to add a significant free agent.  We also have a top pick next year.  Getting a stud prospect in trade for Ryan and a very good prospect for Lopez could be the icing on the cake in building a team with a real shot.