Few Fits for Frugal Minnesota Twins Among Top-50 Free Agent Lists

[Rod Carews Birthday]

12 hours ago, Patzky said:

A bit more room got made today for signees, as Cody Lawyerson, Jose Miranda, Thomas Hatch and Genesis Cabrera were cut from the forty man roster. 

Lawyerson was claimed by Anaheim.

Space isn’t the problem.  Loosening the cash sphincter is. 

[4twinsJA]

Twins shop for FAs at TJMaxx, won't find any potential Twins FAs on top 50 list.

[Patzky]

18 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Space isn’t the problem.  Loosening the cash sphincter is. 

Loosen the Cash Sphincter signs won't likely be confiscated by stadium employees!

[Chris Hove]

15 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Skip to why Josh Naylor makes sense at 3/$75M or why Ryan O'Hearn fits. If the Twins can ratchet their 2026 season opening  budget to $105-110M, there is room for one of them. Unfortunately, for those who dream on Rhys Hoskins or Dustin May, no room.

I think, from what I'm hearing, $95 million is the absolute max this team wants to be at, with $80 million as a possible low. If the Twins see someone they really care about or are intrigued with, then they might do something splashy, but for now, don't count on them.

[Cris E]

If that's the case then move Lopez and shift the cash to cover more holes. May and Hoskins, however, are not the answer to any question a $95m payroll team should be asking.

[tony&rodney]

27 minutes ago, Chris Hove said:

I think, from what I'm hearing, $95 million is the absolute max this team wants to be at, with $80 million as a possible low. If the Twins see someone they really care about or are intrigued with, then they might do something splashy, but for now, don't count on them.

I'm ok with those numbers. My suggestion to talk with Naylor's or O'Hearn's agents is based on a budget in the $110-120M neighborhood, which I do not expect.

People are clamoring for a solution to 1B and to add a bat. Presenting an offer that is large to Sacramento might have a 10% chance to pry loose Tyler Soderstrom. 

The Twins need talent and they can suffer the pangs of uncertainty with young pitching better than they can watch the currently rostered position players continue on their course. That means some change needs to occur.

[rv78]

2 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Given the state of the franchise, any free agent that they can attract will demand to be over-paid.  An over-pay would be a stupid move by this FO.  Since the Pohlads refuse to spend, bring up the kids and let'em play.  If they play well we have a chance to build something here.  If not, attendance will tank big time (it may regardless) and the Poland's will get what they deserve.

Biggest over-pay of the Falvey era..... Joey Gallo, 1 year for $11M. He didn't even make it to the end of the season before being replaced. The Gallo signing alone should have gotten him fired. 

[rv78]

31 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm ok with those numbers. My suggestion to talk with Naylor's or O'Hearn's agents is based on a budget in the $110-120M neighborhood, which I do not expect.

People are clamoring for a solution to 1B and to add a bat. Presenting an offer that is large to Sacramento might have a 10% chance to pry loose Tyler Soderstrom. 

The Twins need talent and they can suffer the pangs of uncertainty with young pitching better than they can watch the currently rostered position players continue on their course. That means some change needs to occur.

They have their solution at 1B. Kody Clemens. Don't think that is it? Wait and see.

[DJL44]

MLB trade rumors just posted their list today. Interesting value players

19) Kazuma Okamoto 4/$64M - turns 30 next season but projects as an average 1B. Strikes out very little (11.3%). Struggles with fastballs 95 MPH and greater.

28) Ha-Seong Kim 2/$30M - would add needed depth to the Twins infield. Nice stopgap SS to hold the spot until Culpepper or Houston is ready. Could be trade bait next season as well. Recently turned 30.

29) JT Realmuto 2/$30M - the Twins clearly need a catcher and Realmuto is still really good at calling games and controlling baserunners. JT will probably have no trouble finding a spot with a contender rather than starting for the Twins.

34) Luis Arraez 2/$24M - the only top 50 free agent anyone guessed could end up with the Twins. If he produces 3 WAR over the two seasons the Twins would break even. He might even generate some ticket sales to old fogies who love batting average and hate dingers.

45) Gregory Soto 2/$16M - a lefty reliever who throws 97 MPH but needs to polish up his slider to become dominant. The Twins have been known to get more out of a pitcher's slider. Could take whatever saves are available for the Twins and get traded with a "proven closer" pedigree.

49) Victor Caratini 2/$14M - quite affordable for a starting catcher

 

 

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Chris Hove said:

I think, from what I'm hearing, $95 million is the absolute max this team wants to be at, with $80 million as a possible low. If the Twins see someone they really care about or are intrigued with, then they might do something splashy, but for now, don't count on them.

What is your source? 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Chris Hove said:

I think, from what I'm hearing, $95 million is the absolute max this team wants to be at, with $80 million as a possible low. 

So somewhere between 25% and 30% of revenue. That's pathetic.

56 minutes ago, Cris E said:

If that's the case then move Lopez and shift the cash to cover more holes.

The problem is any free agent they acquire will be a worse value than keeping Lopez.

[sweetmusicviola16]

8 minutes ago, rv78 said:

They have their solution at 1B. Kody Clemens. Don't think that is it? Wait and see.

I agree. Kody is likely the primary 1B this season. I expect Julien and Gasper are back as well and will also fill in at the position. This is not going to be pretty. 60 wins looks like an optimistic view to me. More trades coming.

[sweetmusicviola16]

1 hour ago, Cris E said:

If that's the case then move Lopez and shift the cash to cover more holes. May and Hoskins, however, are not the answer to any question a $95m payroll team should be asking.

I'm fine with moving Lopez and any other player. With Pablo the return has to be good and without 2026 in mind. 

[Chris Hove]

43 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

So somewhere between 25% and 30% of revenue. That's pathetic.

The problem is any free agent they acquire will be a worse value than keeping Lopez.

Lopez and Ryan will be shopped if they aren't already.

[Chris Hove]

49 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

What is your source? 

https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/onsi/minnesota-twins-news/twins-projected-arbitration-salaries-2026-payroll-outlook

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/minnesota-twins/payroll/_/year/2026

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/twins

[Parfigliano]

51 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

So somewhere between 25% and 30% of revenue. That's pathetic.

The problem is any free agent they acquire will be a worse value than keeping Lopez.

Pohlad's are more likely to keep all cash savings if they trade Lopez.

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Pohlad's are more likely to keep all cash savings if they trade Lopez.

Refusing to spend any revenue to improve the team now or in the future will create a death spiral for this franchise.

[TwinsDr2021]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Refusing to spend any revenue to improve the team now or in the future will create a death spiral for this franchise.

Create?  I would argue the last two years was the start, and if the next wave of prospects end up the last the spiral will continue. But if the next wave is really good, and Lewis, Lee, and Wallner get back to where they have been, then you can spend to fill holes again and make a run. (Now I have little to no faith in this FO, so I am not expecting much)

[RpR]

5 hours ago, rv78 said:

So, instead of letting the young guys develop into something that is possible, you'd rather continue to bring in the floor type veterans that take playing time away from them, and still be bad. Yeah, makes sense to me. This organization will never spend the amount of money it will take, on enough top of the line Free Agents, to be successful. I'd rather have hope in a young player developing into a difference maker than watching an over-paid FA veteran that isn't a difference maker just to remain an average or below average team.

IF they have not developed by the time they are veterans in AAA, the chance of them developing period, is the same as hitting 0 or 00 on a Roulette table.

It happens, but is rare, and not worth ruining a team to gamble.

Since computer generated stats are so important to some baseball followers, here is a computer generated view of the young boys:

AI Overview

The failure rate for top 100 baseball prospects is

about 30%, as roughly 70% make it to the major leagues. However, this varies significantly by position, with hitters having a higher success rate than pitchers. The definition of "failure" can also vary, with some analyses considering prospects who don't become All-Stars as failures, while others consider any player who doesn't make the majors a failure

I would rather have a team with Farmer, Urshela and France, than one with Miranda, Gordon and Julien.

[Patzky]

23 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Pohlad's are more likely to keep all cash savings if they trade Lopez.

Exactly why along (with intangibles) I hope Pablo is on the hill Opening Day.

[Major League Ready]

46 minutes ago, Chris Hove said:

https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/onsi/minnesota-twins-news/twins-projected-arbitration-salaries-2026-payroll-outlook

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/minnesota-twins/payroll/_/year/2026

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/twins

The 2nd and 3rd sources are nothing more than an account of what they have.  The first article provides absolutely nothing of substance.  Basing any opinion on what you have provided is basically unfounded.  

[Major League Ready]

34 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Create?  I would argue the last two years was the start, and if the next wave of prospects end up the last the spiral will continue. But if the next wave is really good, and Lewis, Lee, and Wallner get back to where they have been, then you can spend to fill holes again and make a run. (Now I have little to no faith in this FO, so I am not expecting much)

You don't believe in Keaschall, Jenkins, Culpepper or Abel?

[TJSweens]

Every year Twins pundits try to determine the best potential free agents that will fit the Twins level of cheapness. I can almost picture them all putting money in a pool before they write their prognostications.

The Twins approach to free agency makes me think of the Big Bang Theory episode when Howard lays out his strategy for meeting women in a bar..."First we let the lawyers and jocks thin the herd, and then we go after the weak and the old and the lame."

[TJSweens]

SD

[Heiny]

May should be a great addition and would fit the Twins historical pattern.  Sign or trade for pitchers that will most likely sit on Il for huge majority of the season.  AKA - Desclafani, Stewart, Paddock, Topa, Mahle, Dyson et.al.  Yeah,  we're due for another one those guys.

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Chris Hove said:

https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/onsi/minnesota-twins-news/twins-projected-arbitration-salaries-2026-payroll-outlook

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/minnesota-twins/payroll/_/year/2026

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/twins

Those are payroll baselines based on today. They are not sourced information about their future plans for this off season. 

I personally think they will be at or under 100 million. That is my speculation and not based on any sourced information about the Twins plans for the future. 

[Chris Hove]

Ok, here's a long-term plan for you, if this makes sense. If you factor in the $38 million in guaranteed contracts, with 10 arbitration-eligible players, that leaves 28 spots to be filled by mostly pre-arbitration players making league minimum. So I would say those figures look to be pretty close.

[rv78]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

IF they have not developed by the time they are veterans in AAA, the chance of them developing period, is the same as hitting 0 or 00 on a Roulette table.

It happens, but is rare, and not worth ruining a team to gamble.

Since computer generated stats are so important to some baseball followers, here is a computer generated view of the young boys:

AI Overview

The failure rate for top 100 baseball prospects is

about 30%, as roughly 70% make it to the major leagues. However, this varies significantly by position, with hitters having a higher success rate than pitchers. The definition of "failure" can also vary, with some analyses considering prospects who don't become All-Stars as failures, while others consider any player who doesn't make the majors a failure

I would rather have a team with Farmer, Urshela and France, than one with Miranda, Gordon and Julien.

Most of the players brought up to the majors HAVE developed in AAA or they wouldn't be brought up in the first place. You don't ruin a team by bringing up your best prospects when they are prospering in AAA. This isn't about bringing up minor leaguers who aren't ready. It's about giving those deserving of a fair chance, the opportunity. In 2023 was Gallo worthy of the spot over Wallner? If so, why did Wallner replace him before the year was over? What about Margot? Or Santana? Or Gasper? Or Luplow? Cave? Garlick? The list is sooo long of the useless Free Agent veterans brought in under Falvey that it makes me puke. How much money has been wasted on them? Too many Millions to count. You know what? Your team of Farmer, Urshela and France wouldn't get you to the WS any faster than a team of prospects that is allowed to grow and prosper and get a chance to play everyday. That's something the current regime refuses to let happen. And that is why the continued way of Falvey bringing in dumpster veterans will never work. If the young players aren't worthy then he's also doing a lousy job of drafting.

 

I would rather have a team with Arraez, Jeffers and Keaschall than one with Gallo, Margot and Gasper.

 

[jorgenswest]

17 minutes ago, Chris Hove said:

Ok, here's a long-term plan for you, if this makes sense. If you factor in the $38 million in guaranteed contracts, with 10 arbitration-eligible players, that leaves 28 spots to be filled by mostly pre-arbitration players making league minimum. So I would say those figures look to be pretty close.

I agree. I was just really interested when you said “from what I am hearing”. Your math is good. I wonder about those other 28 spots. They are allowed to fill a some of those with players earning beyond the minimum either by trade or free agency. I am skeptical that they will. I haven’t heard anything sourced from them yet though. Going back to the beginning of our exchange it is that “hearing” phrase that caught my curiosity.

[Chris Hove]

2 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I agree. I was just really interested when you said “from what I am hearing”. Your math is good. I wonder about those other 28 spots. They are allowed to fill a some of those with players earning beyond the minimum either by trade or free agency. I am skeptical that they will. I haven’t heard anything sourced from them yet though. Going back to the beginning of our exchange it is that “hearing” phrase that caught my curiosity.

Sometimes I get the fill-ins from internal sources.