The Wallner-Gallo Problem: A Case Against the Lineup Value of Matt Wallner

[Elite Benchwarmer]

I'm a fan of Wallner, and I hope/expect that he will be a valuable asset for the Twins over the next few years.  I believe most players need 1200+ PAs to prove out their MLB talent.  Wally is at 900 PAs, so he's still climbing that early career wall.

This got me thinking about early stats and career trajectory for a couple other talented lefty sluggers who aren't great defenders.  The chart below shows the first 4 years for three players.  Wallner is Player B.  Player A is active.  A & C have both won world series rings.  Player C is a former Twin.  Wallner certainly compares favorably, but one caveat is that he is 2 years older than Player A & C at the career stage shown by the stats below.

Bottom line, my view is that it is still early in Wally's career and has ample room for improvement.

	Player A	Player B	Player C
PAs	1274	901	1227
K	369	294	252
K%	29.0%	32.6%	20.5%
BB	174	95	143
BB%	13.7%	10.5%	11.7%
2B	36	44	76
HR	72	49	38
AVG	0.228	0.238	0.263
OBP	0.341	0.35	0.354
SLG	0.472	0.501	0.457
OPS	0.813	0.851	0.811
OPS+	108	133	105

 

 

Obviously, I had some free time today.  (Being retired will do that for you.)  I'll share names for Player A & C later today.  Any guesses?

[RpR]

2 hours ago, cheeseheadgophfan said:

Spread out over 550 AB's this year, he hits 40 HR's.   He is what he is and will presumably continue to improve.  I don't know how you measure defense but I don't think he is terrible.  And anyone who thinks his arm isn't borderline elite isn't watching the same guy.

I do think one of he or Larnach should grab a 1B glove in the offseason and learn the position. The fact that we have no real first baseman is ridiculous.  Clemons isn't the long term answer. 

Putting Wallner or Larnach at First would be asininely stupid.

[Morland]

7 hours ago, LambchoP said:

I think Wallner COULD be a viable middle of the order bat if he improves upon a few things. He needs to cut down on the K's and make more contact. Right now he is a true 3 outcome hitter. It's HR, walk, or nothing. I think we should see if he can play first base. DH would be best for him but it would hurt his value. Maybe it's best to DH him regularly and have him play RF only on a part time basis. Next year will be important for him to put a good season together because a lot of younger options are coming up soon. Guys like Fedko, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Rosario, and eventually Jenkins. I think guys like Larnach, Outman and Roden should be long gone.

I agree. The Twins have first base open and Wallner's slowness wouldn't hurt as much there, and his size and long reach could help. He probably has another year or so for the Twins to hope he improves at the plate but I doubt he gets much more time than that.

[gman]

10 hours ago, In My La Z boy said:

Do you think our coaches know this? How are we not hitting fastballs? Nice to see Brooks Lee on top of the list. Fans have given him an undeserved beating lately. He's going to be a gamer 100%. On Wallner, we've missed our peak value window on him for making a trade, so we'll probably trade him this winter after picking up 2 more left-handed hitting corner OF'ers at the trade deadline. What is Falvey's obsession with left-handed hitting corner OF'ers??? How many does one team need???

Actually we picked up 3 left handed corner outfielders. The third no seems to talk about.

[HrbieFan]

12 hours ago, Doug Y said:

Maybe the subtitle of this article should be why OPS is not the new batting average. It’s a useful stat, but it favors high slugging over contact. We keep looking for the one perfect stat to define all hitters, but so far it doesn’t exist. 

Exactly! Wallner's HRs are as empty as his hits too. 

[Eephus]

Wallner's approach at the plate even reminds me of Gallo. Like Gallo was his unofficial hitting coach in Wallner's formative years. Would love to see an analysis of this. Gallo had this distinctive dig in the left foot, swing in the right, couple of windmillish swings, bend backwards (Wallner always does this too) and then bat .168 with a.700 ops. Why would you repeat the same approach so faithfully for hundreds of at bats with such lousy results? 

[ashbury]

WPA shouldn't be compared directly to WAR.  WAR's baseline is a mythical AAAA player you can acquire for peanuts.  WPA's baseline is, more or less, a .500 winning percentage, and thus a mythical average major league player.  If you want to compare WPA, compare it to WAA, which is Wins Above Average and is derived from WAR.

Of course most versions of WAA (and WAR) taken into account defensive stats while WPA is just situational batting, so a player whose WAR is significantly aided by his defense numbers will have a WPA that looks bad, on average.

I don't even want to get into the discussion of whether any of these aggregate stats are good.  But let's not compare apples to oranges.

[Elite Benchwarmer]

 

A key negative for Wallner vs early Schwarber/Ortiz is K/BB - higher K rate and lower walk rate.  This is partly a trade-off for higher slugging.  The 2-year age difference is also important to note.

I don't think Wallner will be Schwarber or Ortiz, but I believe it's still too early to know where his career lands.

	Kyle	Matt	David
	Schwarber	Wallner	Ortiz
PAs	1274	901	1227
K	369	294	252
K%	29.0%	32.6%	20.5%
BB	174	95	143
BB%	13.7%	10.5%	11.7%
2B	36	44	76
HR	72	49	38
AVG	0.228	0.238	0.263
OBP	0.341	0.35	0.354
SLG	0.472	0.501	0.457
OPS	0.813	0.851	0.811
OPS+	108	133	105

[DocBauer]

Im going to repeat a few things I stated in the previous thread with a few alterations.

Removing his rather brief 2022 debut, Wallner's Quad Slash line for a healthy 2023 and 2024 are as follows:

.254/ .371/ .515/ .885 with an OPS+ of 144. That means he was ABOVE AVERAGE in EVERY category, including BATTING AVERAGE, and was 44% BETTER as an all around batter than the rest of the league.

44% better overall than the rest of the league.

INCLUDING his brief 2022 debut and a rough 2025...with an OPS STILL ABOVE .800...possibly due to his injury, but who knows for certain, his CAREER Quad Slash line is:

.238/ .350/ .501/ .850 with an OPS+ of 133. That means over 4yrs his BATTING AVERAGE has been slightly less than the rest of the league.  But it also means for his career he's been 33% better than average as a productive batter than the rest of the league.

33% better overall than the rest of the league.

Decades ago, hitters were judged on 3 things, AVG, HR, and RBI. Now, those aren't EMPTY stats. They still have relevance. BUT, teams got smarter over time and realized a batter with a high AVG, but didn't have power and didn't drive in runs, had less value than originally perceived.

They also realized guys with big power who couldn't get OB, or drive in many runs, and sometimes had a poor AVERAGE, had less value than originally perceived.

It's really not that hard if you drop old perceived values/walls and just understand the greater perspective that ALL TEAMS...not just the Twins...discovered over time with deeper research.

Average, HR, and RBI by themselves DON'T paint an accurate picture!

Remember, over the years, when you saw various hitters with 25 HR but only 60-ish RBI and you wondered how that could be? It's because nobody was OB for them to knock in! OR, they couldn't HIT for a damn, only had power, so that was the only time they knocked guys in!

It's actually MATH over DECADES of research by ALL TEAMS. OB% was a measurement that simply went ignored for too long. And they finally figured out the best way to measure a batter wasn't to use any SINGLE statistic, but to combine them ALL to figure out who was ACTUALLY a good OVERALL hitter.

That's why the Quad Slash line exists today. OPS + is a way to quantify how below or above a hitter is compared to the rest of the league, or by each position. 

EXAMPLE: A catcher only bats .250, and gets OB about 32% of the time. He strokes enough Doubles and HR to have a SLG% of around .425. His OPS would then be around. His OPS would be around .740, which would make him ABOVE average considering the LEAGUE AVERAGE usually hovers around .700, give or take about 10-15 points. Right there you'd have a hell of an offensive catcher! 

Again, it's not mysticism or magic. It's JUST MATH measuring a players overall offensive ability! NOBODY is trying hoodoo-voodo to convince you of some strange new world of baseball. It's simply a newer, more complete and accurate picture of hiw to measure the performance and potential a player/batter has.

BACK to Wallner again:

He's NOT slow. In regard to SPRINT SPEED, he's one of the faster Twin players. But he's also not QUICK. That means his READS have to be better in order to be a quality defensive OF.

Some previously couldn't watch the Twins for a while. Some maybe have refused to. I'm not in a blackout area, and I've watched a TON of games over the past few years. And I can tell with honest heart that he really has improved his tracking skills over the past couple of seasons.

I can also honestly tell you that his defense has slipped in 2025. And I don't know if that is physical, or him taking offensive frustrations out in to the field. He has a 95mph CANNON for an arm that is also accurate. So good is his arm that teams don't even try to run on him any longer. So I automatically dismiss any comment about his arm.

Wallner will ALWAYS K more than a lot of people want to see, even he's lowered that number this year. But Wallner will also always have a solid OB% due to BB and some hit batsmen. (Witness a career .350 OB%). He's also never going to HIT to a .280-ish AVG. (.250 is about AVERAGE these days).

IMO...other than some fan bizarre  perception he should HIT at a .270 AVG and have a K% of 20%..MY ISSUE is his usage and FO perception.

Most sluggers will run hot and cold. But when he had a poor 2024 ST, and then a poor start to 2024, the FO sent him down to AAA. But they did so after about 26 AB. What does 26 AB tell you about anyone? Especially for a player coming off a previously good season before? But FINE, they wanted to give him a brief re-set. But then he RAKED. And they still kept him down? Why? Because they didn't KNOW who he was? And when they FINALLY called him back up, what did he do? He produced ANOTHER .800plus season.

To begin 2025, Rocco decided they should put him at LEADOFF as he was one of the teams best hitters. There was SOME logic to that due to his power and OB ability and being one of the best batters on the team. But I never really liked that plan. He and Buxton and Lewis should have been a 3-4-5 option with Castro and Correa as a 1-2.

But Wallner was pretty good there initially and then got hurt. And since he's been back, his defense has slumped somewhat, and he hasn't been the BATTER that he was in 2023-24. But how much of that is post injury "getting right", or coaching, or Wallner's own head? 

Do anti-Wallner haters realize he's STILL got the highest OPS on the team behind Buxton? And sorry, I'm dismissing Keaschall in this point of the conversation for reasons that should be obvious. 

You want to build back Wallner's confidence? Then stop throwing him down in the lower third of the lineup. 

Should Wallner be a part of the immediate Twins future? ABSOLUTELY. He's almost as talented of a potential producer as Lewis.

You can't ignore an injury season on a bad team team where he's still better than almost anyone else.

Again, MATH, previous numbers, potential to repeat high numbers, nobody is going to take away your Fandom.

Is the team better with Uber prospect Rodriguez getting healthy for once and grabbing a spot and fellow Uber prospect Jenkins joining him and making Wallner a mostly full time DH and part time OF? Absolutely!

That would be OUTSTANDING and what most of us have been dreaming of. But there is no guarantee it WILL happen.

**BTW, @LA VIkes Fanhas produced some interesting numbers lately showing Wallner is trending towards not being negative towards LHP. That's a really good thing!

And I could ramble on forever and never get through the ingrained minds/opinions of some posters. And I'm dismissing the current coaching staff or the FO and ANY kind of direction they might have. 

But Wallner is a potentially HUGE component of the lineup over the next few years. The really good numbers are there to look at.

 

 

[tony&rodney]

DH only. Do not use in field.

[TopGunn#22]

Doc Bauer makes a lot of good points.  I like Matt Wallner.  I think it's incredibly stupid, no matter what "analytics" tell you, to bat a player like Matt Wallner LEADOFF.  Wallner belongs in the #4-#6 spot in the order.  This is like hitting Harmon Killebrew leadoff.  Harmon had a lot of power and a high OBP & OPS.  Would you bat Killebrew leadoff because of that???

Granted, Killebrew consistently hit for a higher average which allowed him to drive in runs much more consistently than Wallner ever has.  But something in the "analytics" encourages Rocco to hit guys like Jeffers, Larnach and Wallner at the top of the order.  And it hasn't worked.

Maybe Wallner or Larnach could become at least league average fielders at 1B, maybe not.  But with all the OF coming up sooner, rather than later, a position switch wouldn't be a bad idea.  One thing is certain.  We can't play everyone in RF or LF.

Someone suggested Wallner's trade value is only that of a middling prospect.  Wrong.  That guy is Larnach.  Wallner, in a straight up, one-for one trade would bring back our choice of Kyle Teel or Edgar Quero from the White Sox.  The White Sox can't play both Teel and Quero at Catcher at the same time either.

Maybe the Twins should consider a Wallner for Teel trade?  It would give the White Sox a OF/DH power bat while the Twins get a Catcher to pair with Jeffers for a couple years until Tait is ready.   

[Werbellik]

Blah blah blah blah. He's worse than Joey Galo, Galo can defend .

 

 

 

[Werbellik]

The Titanic is sinking,  and Falvey blows the horn and exclaims FULL SPEED AHEAD!!!

 

[stringer bell]

I'll comment here on the thread most critical of Wallner. OPS and OPS+ presents the most positive light on Wallner's offense (and value). WPA shows quite a different picture. I do think reality is better represented by WPA.

Wallner isn't real slow and has actually swiped a couple bases in the last week, but he's been really uneven in his almost three years on the scene for the Twins. It's pretty hard to keep him in the middle of a lineup.

To my eye, Wallner has looked rougher in the outfield this year than he did last year, but according to the two most quoted defensive metrics, he is not that bad on defense and it is undeniable that he has a strong arm. Also he isn't really slow. His sprint speed is in the 36th percentile.

Carrying one guy like that is fine with a lineup of more balanced players, but carrying three or four guys who depend on slug for their value makes the offense very inconsistent. I keep seeing people suggest converting Wallner or Larnach to first basemen. I believe the die is cast and neither will be considered to change positions. 

[cheeseheadgophfan]

On 8/29/2025 at 4:27 PM, RpR said:

Putting Wallner or Larnach at First would be asininely stupid.

Wow......your analysis is not only thought provoking, but backed up with incredibly strong facts and research.  Well done.  

[RpR]

9 hours ago, cheeseheadgophfan said:

Wow......your analysis is not only thought provoking, but backed up with incredibly strong facts and research.  Well done.  

Thank you, much better than wishful thinking.