Three Arms. Two Months. One Big Opportunity.

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror, the Minnesota Twins will spend the final two months of the season learning more about their new conglomeration of players, including internal options. Minnesota stripped down the roster ahead of the trade deadline, which allows the team to rely on a trio of young arms with something to prove.

Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews have all shown flashes this season, but the stretch run will be about consistency and growth. Can the group handle heavier workloads? Will they find success against lineups the third time through? Can they make adjustments in-game to work deeper into starts? The answers to these questions will help shape the Twins’ plans for the rotation in 2026 and beyond.

Simeon Woods Richardson: Earning Trust Through Consistency
The Twins handed Woods Richardson a rotation spot out of spring training, and he has rewarded them with a season of growth. After a rocky start to the year, he has been one of the team’s steadiest starters since mid-June. In his last eight starts, he posted a 2.58 ERA with 30 strikeouts and 18 walks. On the season, he owns a 4.24 ERA with 69 strikeouts in over 80 2/3 innings pitched.

Woods Richardson has done well limiting hard contact, but he is still working to prove he can handle a lineup the third time. Opponents have a .356 OBP with an .803 OPS against him the third time around, compared to a .623 OPS the first time and .762 the second. The next step in his development will be refining his sequencing and pitch usage deeper into games.

With his improved command and willingness to mix pitches, Woods Richardson is trending in the right direction. Now the Twins need to see if he can maintain that level through the end of the season.

David Festa: Power Arm Searching for Efficiency
Festa’s debut came with plenty of excitement, and his early outings offered a glimpse of what makes him such an intriguing prospect. In 2024, he consistently missed bats, racking up 166 strikeouts in 124 2/3 combined innings between the majors and minors. With a high-spin fastball and a devastating changeup (44.0 Whiff%), Festa profiles as a high-strikeout arm with the potential to be a middle-of-the-rotation fixture.

However, the Twins want to see more than just strikeouts. Festa has struggled with efficiency at times, often needing 90 pitches to get through four or five innings. He has also been vulnerable to big innings when his command wavers. His ERA sits at 5.40 through ten appearances, but his FIP is 4.84, suggesting there’s more upside than his surface stats reveal. His xSLG is also 30 points lower than his actual slugging this year, pointing to him being unlucky at times.

Down the stretch, Festa needs to show his recent shoulder injury is a minor issue. Then he can push toward the 100-inning mark and show he can avoid high pitch counts. If he can find ways to generate quicker outs and stay away from walks, he could force his way into next year’s rotation.

Zebby Matthews: Staying Healthy and Getting Stretched Out
Last season, Matthews was the talk of the Twins’ pitching pipeline as he moved from High-A to the big-league level. The 2025 campaign hasn’t been as smooth. He dominated in Triple-A with a 1.72 ERA and 47 strikeouts in 36 2/3 innings. Since joining the big-league roster, he has made seven appearances and posted a 5.67 ERA with 42 strikeouts in 33 1/3 innings.

Matthews has already shown the ability to generate whiffs (27.9 Whiff%, 70th percentile) and limit damage, but the Twins have kept him on a short leash. He has thrown fewer than five innings in four of his six starts and has not consistently faced lineups a third time through. He only has 20 plate appearances versus a lineup for the third time. Minnesota will need to extend his outings to see how he responds as he works deeper into games.

Health will also be a consideration. Matthews missed time with a shoulder strain earlier this season, and the Twins may be cautious with his workload. If he can stay on the mound and show durability, he has a chance to make a strong case for a 2026 rotation spot.

Rotation Plans for 2026
Looking toward next season, the Twins have Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober under contract and locked into the rotation’s top spots. However, there are no guarantees that all three will be back if Minnesota continues to trade off pieces this winter. The Twins also added starters at the trade deadline that will be added into the rotational mix, including Taj Bradley and Mick Abel. 

There is still plenty of season left, and the Twins are watching closely. The next nine weeks are about opportunity and evaluation. If these young starters can rise to the occasion, the path forward becomes clearer. If not, the Twins will need to look elsewhere to complete their 2026 rotation.

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Who has the most to prove in the season’s final two months? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[DJL44]

I am expecting Matthews to be optioned at some point. If he’s in the minors 2 more weeks, the Twins gain a year of service time.

[Fezig]

Festa seems like his stuff is good enough for closer material. He can air it out, has a decent pitch mix, and a good strikeout ratio. For the youngens out there, kind of compares to Rick Aguilara.

[The Great Hambino]

I mentioned this elsewhere, but I think they have an opportunity to get more information on the young guys if they use some rotation slots to pair them up in a piggyback scenario.

Let Ryan, Ober, and SWR do their thing.  For the other two slots, pair up, say, Festa with Bradley and Matthews with Abel.  Have them each go 4 innings.  Maybe a 5th if the situation dictates.  It's not like they'd be letting these guys go any more than that in a traditional setup anyway.  Now you can gather information and build experience for four young starters instead of two.  Could be a creative way to steal some development time.  If Pablo returns, or there's injuries, you can reshuffle as necessary.  Maybe Adams or Ohl can be a partner if an opening emerges or you think SWR belongs in this group.  Maybe Festa kills it for a few turns and you give him a chance to be a big boy starter.  You have a lot of ways to play this.

Doing this would shorten the bullpen by two members, but it would also save them collectively about 6-8 innings per time through the rotation that it would be required to cover.  Given the emptiness of that bullpen cupboard, counting on fewer guys I think is a good thing.

I dunno.  To me, this would be better than constant bullpen games with a bullpen you don't have

[Doctor Wu]

14 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

I mentioned this elsewhere, but I think they have an opportunity to get more information on the young guys if they use some rotation slots to pair them up in a piggyback scenario.

Let Ryan, Ober, and SWR do their thing.  For the other two slots, pair up, say, Festa with Bradley and Matthews with Abel.  Have them each go 4 innings.  Maybe a 5th if the situation dictates.  It's not like they'd be letting these guys go any more than that in a traditional setup anyway.  Now you can gather information and build experience for four young starters instead of two.  Could be a creative way to steal some development time.  If Pablo returns, or there's injuries, you can reshuffle as necessary.  Maybe Adams or Ohl can be a partner if an opening emerges or you think SWR belongs in this group.  Maybe Festa kills it for a few turns and you give him a chance to be a big boy starter.  You have a lot of ways to play this.

Doing this would shorten the bullpen by two members, but it would also save them collectively about 6-8 innings per time through the rotation that it would be required to cover.  Given the emptiness of that bullpen cupboard, counting on fewer guys I think is a good thing.

I dunno.  To me, this would be better than constant bullpen games with a bullpen you don't have

I like this idea too. I mean, at this point in a lost season why not experiment a bit and try a few new ways to see how these pitchers can perform? Maybe one of these so-so starters becomes a new bullpen weapon like other "failed" starters such as Jax and Duran. Let's be creative!

[Otaknam]

Bradley and Abel need to get their starts too, to see what they have. Abel seems to have an untapped upside, and hopefully he stakes a big step forward for this trade to be acceptable. 

[TopGunn#22]

So let's review things as they set up for the 2026 season:

We have Ryan, Lopez and Ober.  We also have Taj Bradley and Mick Abel.  We ALSO have Festa, Matthews and SWR.  That's eight possible SP's.  That's tremendous depth, and we know injuries happen, but we can only deploy 5 at a time unless some of them are deployed as relief pitchers of some sort...long relief, set up man or closer. 

At least long relief maintains an innings workload that is close to a SP.

We also have some other arms at various levels in the minors who have either fallen off this year, maintained their status or improved their stock.  Some of these arms "could" pitch for the Twins in some capacity in 2026, some are a few years away.  Think of Marco Raya and Dasan Hill as a couple of candidates.

With Jax, we had a closer in waiting, but we traded him away for a 24 year old SP who has been more SWR than Joe Ryan in his major league performance so far, but has the "potential" to be MORE than SWR has shown to this point.  I was fine with all the moves, even Correa, until the Jax and Varland trades.

Jax is somewhat understandable given the acquisition of Bradley.  The trade that really kind of crushed any hope for next year was Varland.

Varland was also a closer in waiting.  He had taken so well to the role of high leverage, late inning reliever.  And yet, nonsensically, Falvey traded him away, essentially for Alan Roden, a LH hitting OF.  We already HAD a full cupboard of LH hitting OF.  Once Varland went out the door, we had a paucity of CLOSERS (unless Michael Tonkin is fine with you).  Ty France for Kendry Rojas would have been fine with me. 

But I don't think it was necessary to put Varland together with France to get Roden and Rojas.  In other words, moving Varland just to off load France wasn't needed.  I have read many opinions by baseball commentators and insiders who are STILL trying to figure out what the plan was (if there ever WAS a plan other than cutting as much salary as possible) of the Twins ownership and FO.  

Varland was eminently affordable for several years.  Jax may have gotten expensive, but not Varland.  Ask a Twins fan today if they would feel a whole lot better about the trade deadline if Jax and/or especially Varland had been retained.  I'll bet over 90% would feel better with at least Varland still with the Twins.  

[Patzky]

2 hours ago, Otaknam said:

Bradley and Abel need to get their starts too, to see what they have. Abel seems to have an untapped upside, and hopefully he stakes a big step forward for this trade to be acceptable. 

I'm eager to see how he does for the Saints v. Toledo today!

[twinstalker]

Trading a reliever midseason makes some sense.  Don't be surprised, though, if the Twins trade someone like Ryan this offseason.  In some ways he'll command a better return than anything offered at the deadline.  The Red Sox got attention by leaking their interest in Ryan at the last seconds, but they weren't offering anything (just the Password), and I'm sure the Twins had gotten lots better talent in offers or at least in discussions.

But one thing teams couldn't do was offer anybody already in their lineup.  That won't necessarily be a holdup in the offseason.

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I am expecting Matthews to be optioned at some point. If he’s in the minors 2 more weeks, the Twins gain a year of service time.

The optioning of Zebby, to gain a year, makes great sense……. was unaware. 

[Danchat]

I could see Festa ending up as a high leverage reliever... question is, are they going to wait it out and keep him as a starter for depth? They have to start moving some starters to relievers.

[JD-TWINS]

26 minutes ago, twinstalker said:

Trading a reliever midseason makes some sense.  Don't be surprised, though, if the Twins trade someone like Ryan this offseason.  In some ways he'll command a better return than anything offered at the deadline.  The Red Sox got attention by leaking their interest in Ryan at the last seconds, but they weren't offering anything (just the Password), and I'm sure the Twins had gotten lots better talent in offers or at least in discussions.

But one thing teams couldn't do was offer anybody already in their lineup.  That won't necessarily be a holdup in the offseason.

My wish would be to keep Ryan & Lopez ……and met the other 5-6 arms sort out the other 3 spots.

Not sure, with all the talk about more trades after the season, why nobody isn’t 100% promoting the trade price as Lopez. He’s under contract for 3 more seasons s so Team’s have a view of salary & Twins would seem to be motivated to move  the $21.75M - right?

He certainly should be affordable for MN but sho knows what the attitude might be from ownership based on success rate when he comes back?

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, Danchat said:

I could see Festa ending up as a high leverage reliever... question is, are they going to wait it out and keep him as a starter for depth? They have to start moving some starters to relievers.

Morris, Raya, Prielipp, Culpepper

[ashbury]

What you want are quality starting pitchers who can be workhorses.  Not merely "good, twice through the batting order," but guys who might be good enough that, if they breeze through the first and second time through, are still good enough that on the third time through they are still on a par with the fresh arms you might bring from the bullpen.  (Especially since, in the 6th inning, you aren't bringing any of your best arms in.)

While I understand the desire to win any individual game by playing the analytic odds, I'd also like to see these 5-inning pitchers, which is mainly what the article is about, be given a little more opportunity to demonstrate their ability to go longer if they are doing well though 5 or so.

Woods-Richardson on July 8 versus the Cubs would be an example.  Only 61 pitches to get through 5 very solid innings - give it a whirl and send him out for another go at it.  On one hand you are saving stress on his arm in a 2-0 game (that the hitters managed to break open late) - on the other, let him learn.

Zebby on July 25. Six innings, only 81 pitches.  Again a tight game.  The season is lost (though it took a few more days for them to admit it).  Another chance for a learning experience for the young pitcher, and conversely a chance for the staff to learn what he's made of.

Festa, June 27.  5.2 innings, 75 pitches.  Did he really need rescuing from himself?  The downside is maybe he loses a game.  The upside, by contrast, is immense, if the young man gains confidence in himself, and the braintrust gains confidence in him.

The message I fear that is coming through is, "yes, your results were okay, but your fundamentals were dropping and you were lucky you got as far as you did."  That does not build your players into what they might become.

I would truly love to know Rocco's and Pete Maki's take on all three of these specific games, plus others.  (Well, not enough to invest the time to go back through Rocco's post-game press conference and see what he said at the time. 😀)

[Nshore]

Coulombe said Matthews is going to be a star.  So he has that going for him, which is nice.

[DocBauer]

8 hours ago, The Great Hambino said:

I mentioned this elsewhere, but I think they have an opportunity to get more information on the young guys if they use some rotation slots to pair them up in a piggyback scenario.

Let Ryan, Ober, and SWR do their thing.  For the other two slots, pair up, say, Festa with Bradley and Matthews with Abel.  Have them each go 4 innings.  Maybe a 5th if the situation dictates.  It's not like they'd be letting these guys go any more than that in a traditional setup anyway.  Now you can gather information and build experience for four young starters instead of two.  Could be a creative way to steal some development time.  If Pablo returns, or there's injuries, you can reshuffle as necessary.  Maybe Adams or Ohl can be a partner if an opening emerges or you think SWR belongs in this group.  Maybe Festa kills it for a few turns and you give him a chance to be a big boy starter.  You have a lot of ways to play this.

Doing this would shorten the bullpen by two members, but it would also save them collectively about 6-8 innings per time through the rotation that it would be required to cover.  Given the emptiness of that bullpen cupboard, counting on fewer guys I think is a good thing.

 

I dunno.  To me, this would be better than constant bullpen games with a bullpen you don't have

Generally speaking, I really like this idea. Whether it's SWR working on missing bats and economizing his pitches, Festa getting his 2 seamer right, Matthews greater consistency but also learning to dance around the zone more, etc,  they all have some development needed.

My one caveat to your plan would be a 5/4 split one turn, and then flip-flop the guys the next turn. At this point, with nothing to win, don't we want them to all get a shot at 2 1/2-3 times through the lineup? 

But I really like the basis you've presented here.

[DocBauer]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Morris, Raya, Prielipp, Culpepper

And let's not forget Lewis, MacLeod, Rojas, CJ Culpepper, Gallagher, and Klein.

Now a couple of these guys have had rough seasons or injuries, and a couple are in AA, but with no additional outgoing trades, that's at least 17 current rotation arms to fill up the Twins and Saints. That's a couple to begin 2026 at AA along with a couple promotions from A ball to fill Wichita's rotation. 

I'm not one to move young rotation arms to the pen "too soon", and we don't know who the Twins might add to the pen via FA, but there is obviously room for a couple young arms to fit in to the 2026 Twins pen from this collection without short changing depth anywhere else.

I'm not counting arms like Ohl, Adams, or maybe even journeyman Rozek as while they can/do make starts, their roles will be as long/middle men going forward.

While the offense needs work still, and there's virtually no bullpen at the moment, at least there's a collection of starting arms, depth, and possible bullpen options.

 

[RaoulDuke]

The Twins find themselves with a ton of Mlb ready/ near ready arms.

 Ryan/ Pablo are established top of the rotation guys with years of control.  Neither is really an ace.  

Ober is somewhere in the 3-5 range figuring himself out.

SWR is a 4-5 or maybe interesting reliever.

Festa/ Zebby are mlb ready and need the experience to grow.

Bradley needs to grow in the mlb.

Abel looks ready to get a shot, I like his stuff he could really be a piece.

Prielipp is getting close.

That is all before guys like Lewis/ Raya/ Morris/ Rojas can make their own push. 

 

Either established arms are getting traded, or starter prospects are going to start getting put in the Mlb bullpen.  I think they will use this time to promote the bulk role.

[TopGunn#22]

I think it's very possible you see some pitching get traded this off season.  Whether it's a BIG piece like Ryan or Lopez or a younger, yet still valuable piece like Zebby, SWR or Festa.  The guy I would keep an eye on is Ober.

If he can string some nice starts together from now until the end of the season, he will build a lot of his value back.  He's the in-between guy.  Not our #1 or #2, not our #4 or #5, but a solid #3.  

According to BBTV, at the beginning of this season, Ober's value was 54.7.  It fell to around 45.4 and I imagine it has fallen further (help me out here Doc. Gast).  If Ober is able to build his value back to a level where he's worth a Jaren Duran type position player that's the kind of value the Twins are looking for to upgrade their lineup.

They could easily replace Ober with Taj Bradley or Mick Abel, or one of Festa, Matthews or SWR.

[The Great Hambino]

20 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Trading a reliever midseason makes some sense.  Don't be surprised, though, if the Twins trade someone like Ryan this offseason.  In some ways he'll command a better return than anything offered at the deadline.  The Red Sox got attention by leaking their interest in Ryan at the last seconds, but they weren't offering anything (just the Password), and I'm sure the Twins had gotten lots better talent in offers or at least in discussions.

But one thing teams couldn't do was offer anybody already in their lineup.  That won't necessarily be a holdup in the offseason.

On top of that, there may be teams (Baltimore?) that weren't going to add anything at the deadline that could be more motivated to add starting pitching in the offseason

[Rosterman]

Bradley, Able, SWR, Matthews, Festa. Don't forget Raya. Add in Ohl and Adams. The Twins suddenly have a roster full of guys who can easily pitch 3 innings, maybe consistently four, and some who can get into the fifth. 

They have been piggy-backing rotation arms in the minors. Maybe do the same in the majors, with the ability to pitch guys every third day if necessary.

What it leaves is a bullpen of around four arms. The Twins have two right now, who will probably be back next year, in Sands and Topa. Both can pitch multiple innings, too. Sadly, they need a bonafide closer. A situational lefty would be fine, too.

I picture, perhaps, Ohl and Festa being developed as relief arms.

But none of this matters if you can't field a team of batters that will keep you in the game. Otherwise, it is just pitchers getting innings.

[miller761]

Festa...closer?