Could Trevor Larnach Net Minnesota Twins a Trade Offer Worth Taking?

[arby58]

2 hours ago, Patzky said:

Would free up 9 for Jenkins.. 😁

I'm ok with moving on from one of Wallner or Larnach, similar to ok with moving on from one of Jax-Duran. Moving Willi would net a larger return. 

I"m not sure about moving Willi netting a larger return, because he is purely a rental.

[arby58]

7 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I would much rather them try and pry away Cruz (and move him RF or LF), His is Arb 1 next year. I have no idea what it would take but would a Erod, Wallner, Cory Lewis, Miranda/Julie do it? Is that an overpay or underpay? 

Seems like a weird deal. First, Cruz is performing much better at the MLB level than Larnach. Emma actually has a greater trade surplus value according to the Baseball Trade Simulator (Cruz 33.5, Emma 38.5), but I don't totally buy that, given Emma's injury issues. When you also toss in Wallner, though, the deal becomes horribly lop-sided, and not in the Twins favor. Cruz is a nice player, but you don't give up that much outfield capital for a player with a 1.2 WAR and 103 OPS+ in 2025.

[TNtwins85]

28 minutes ago, Heiny said:

Ok, I will agree.  Just getting a little discourged with this team and management/front office.

I got ya. Well, if it’s any consolation Jenkins is holding his own as a 20yo at AA and Culpepper is demolishing AA as a 22yo that looks to be able to stick at SS. That’s a positive for sure!

[arby58]

My first take was that Larnach had marginal trade value, but this is decently researched, and it does appear some of the contenders could have a need. I believe that Larnach and Wallner are somewhat interchangeable (but Wallner has a far higher ceiling), so he is the one I would dangle.

[Doctor Gast]

30 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Posted this in another thread. I am curious if Larnach can be used as bait to reel in another current MLB player? My example was Pittsburgh who can’t develop a position player to save their lives. So maybe they will be interested in an established player like Larnach in exchange for Henry Davis since he is floundering as a former 1st overall pick. 

Great idea to get a MLB player, Vanimal. I agree that it seems that PIT has problems developing positional players (they used to have problems developing pitchers). But they seem not to have any problems developing catchers. Endy Rodriguez skyrocketed through their system defensively & offensively. SF gave up on Joey Bart, PIT picked him up & became one of their best players. Great rationale, but IMO, if PIT can't do anything with him, I'd steer clear.

[mnfireman]

Going to be hard to sell Larnach as a LF, he has only started 15 games there, behind Bader (55) and Castro (25). He has started 29 games in RF, behind Wallner (42), but 18 of those starts came while Wallner was on the IL. He has negative value in the OF at both corner positions, but hits above league average. Over half of his starts, 45/89, have been at DH, where he is well below league average at the plate. Not sure how much value he has in a trade. 

[Mike Sixel]

I think Philly would absolutely love to have him. I wonder what you can get for him and one of the second tier RPs?

I'd deal him and promote Gonzalez. Let him get his feet wet this year. 

[Vanimal46]

21 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Great idea to get a MLB player, Vanimal. I agree that it seems that PIT has problems developing positional players (they used to have problems developing pitchers). But they seem not to have any problems developing catchers. Endy Rodriguez skyrocketed through their system defensively & offensively. SF gave up on Joey Bart, PIT picked him up & became one of their best players. Great rationale, but IMO, if PIT can't do anything with him, I'd steer clear.

Another example team I thought of is Atlanta. They’re having a more disappointing season than us, but they’re too heavily invested in their core to give up on 2026. They’re struggling big time to find an answer in LF (Verdugo, Kelenic, Eli White all struggling, Profar suspended). They have a young C in Drake Baldwin that’s doing well in his first 71 MLB games, and blocked by Sean Murphy who’s signed through 2028. 

Maybe we can put a package together where it benefits both teams who want to continue trying to win in 2026? 

[Doctor Gast]

I agree that we are pretty deep in the OF, so trading Larnach would make sense. But I don't blame the core for our problems. But I don't count Larnach as part of the core. I agree that we have to shake up this team & change our identity of slow big bats. We need better defense, better baserunners & clutch hitters, that's who we should focus on. We can get more for Wallner, so I'd target him 1st & even package him up with an expiring contract to maximize their value . But all this trade talk with no objective is fruitless. Trade just for trade's sake will do us no good. If there is no avenue of a young impact MLB-ready catcher, that is where our priority should be at, 2nd impact MLB-ready pitching. Our window is still open once we change management.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Another example team I thought of is Atlanta. They’re having a more disappointing season than us, but they’re too heavily invested in their core to give up on 2026. They’re struggling big time to find an answer in LF (Verdugo, Kelenic, Eli White all struggling, Profar suspended). They have a young C in Drake Baldwin that’s doing well in his first 71 MLB games, and blocked by Sean Murphy who’s signed through 2028. 

Maybe we can put a package together where it benefits both teams who want to continue trying to win in 2026? 

Interesting idea. I'd be in favor of something like this. 

[TwinsDr2021]

41 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Seems like a weird deal. First, Cruz is performing much better at the MLB level than Larnach. Emma actually has a greater trade surplus value according to the Baseball Trade Simulator (Cruz 33.5, Emma 38.5), but I don't totally buy that, given Emma's injury issues. When you also toss in Wallner, though, the deal becomes horribly lop-sided, and not in the Twins favor. Cruz is a nice player, but you don't give up that much outfield capital for a player with a 1.2 WAR and 103 OPS+ in 2025.

My idea for the deal was to get a MLB player that does things the Twins roster doesn't do, play good defense, and is fast and has power, while reducing the players on the 40 man roster. My thought was that Pitt wouldn't get rid of him without getting two major league players or one and one top prospect. I am willing to overpay to do this, maybe remove EROD and add another prospects (GG)? 

[Doctor Gast]

1 minute ago, Vanimal46 said:

Another example team I thought of is Atlanta. They’re having a more disappointing season than us, but they’re too heavily invested in their core to give up on 2026. They’re struggling big time to find an answer in LF (Verdugo, Kelenic, Eli White all struggling, Profar suspended). They have a young C in Drake Baldwin that’s doing well in his first 71 MLB games, and blocked by Sean Murphy who’s signed through 2028. 

Maybe we can a package together where it benefits both teams who want to continue trying to win in 2026? 

I've had my eye on Baldwin for a while; he's great. But ATL is not going to give him up. He's now their #1 catcher. There was talk of them trading Sean Murphy, but I've heard now that ATL isn't interested.

CWS has 2 outstanding rookie catchers, Oscar Quero & Teel. They've stated they are open to trading one of them to diversify their rebuild. CWS won't trade with MN, but if we pull off a trade like NYY did with us. When MN traded Garver to TX for Falefa & MN turned around & NYY got their target Falefa. If a team wants Jax, Duran or Wallner have them acquire one those CWS catcher, secretly. Then include that catcher in a trade. A young impact MLB-ready catchers are hard to come by so any way we can obtain one we have to do it.  

[gman]

I'd look at trading Larnach for a high octane failed starter at triple A. If we happen to trade Jax or Duran, having support in reserve will come in handy.

[arby58]

16 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

My idea for the deal was to get a MLB player that does things the Twins roster doesn't do, play good defense, and is fast and has power, while reducing the players on the 40 man roster. My thought was that Pitt wouldn't get rid of him without getting two major league players or one and one top prospect. I am willing to overpay to do this, maybe remove EROD and add another prospects (GG)? 

That would be closer - interestingly,, the Baseball Trade Simulator has Wallner's value at 27.2 and Larnach at 5.6, which is just about the same as Cruz (33.5). I'm still not sold on giving up on Wallner, who, current struggles notwithstanding, has a better OPS+ than Cruz, both for this year and his career. That said, you point out other benefits for Cruz (speed and defense) that are also important. My guess is Pittsburgh says no to this trade, but I would probably make it if I were the Twins.

[Trov]

I have long said that corner OF that are not elite at something are a dime a dozen. Larnach is average so he has almost no value. He is completely a replacement level player.  If another team sees any value in him in a trade you jump at it.  He should be a DFA/non-tender next year for us.  He has never developed into the hitter we expected.  The only value he offers, which is almost none, is that he hits slightly better against right handers than average.  That is to be expected, but he is not elite at it.  So even a platoon fit is not there. If a team is offering any level of an actual prospect made the trade in a heart beat. 

[Vanimal46]

7 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I've had my eye on Baldwin for a while; he's great. But ATL is not going to give him up. He's now their #1 catcher. There was talk of them trading Sean Murphy, but I've heard now that ATL isn't interested.

CWS has 2 outstanding rookie catchers, Oscar Quero & Teel. They've stated they are open to trading one of them to diversify their rebuild. CWS won't trade with MN, but if we pull off a trade like NYY did with us. When MN traded Garver to TX for Falefa & MN turned around & NYY got their target Falefa. If a team wants Jax, Duran or Wallner have them acquire one those CWS catcher, secretly. Then include that catcher in a trade. A young impact MLB-ready catchers are hard to come by so any way we can obtain one we have to do it.  

Seattle as well has Harry Ford who will be blocked for the foreseeable future by Big Dumper. Seattle always needs bats. 

There are opportunities out there… My priorities align with yours. I’m targeting C who have already debuted in MLB or could immediately be added to the 26 man roster if they’re blocked by someone else. I have little to no interest trading players with control beyond this year for A+ ball or lower talent. 

[Road trip]

Other than being large, left handed subpar corner outfielders both owned by the Twins, Wallner and Larnach are really not the same, or even similar players.

Larnach has fairly good contact skills, and will likely always hit for a higher average than Wallner.  But that's about his only advantage.  Wallner has more speed (relative, not saying he is fast, just that Larnach is a snail by outfielder standards), a far better arm, more power, takes more walks, and at this point has more upside.  Both struggle vs LHP, but here again Larnach is worse.  Larnach is kind of a known quantity after 1400 PA's.  That doesn't mean he can't get better, but it isn't very likely.  Wallner has only 800 PA, essentially a full season less.  He might get better, or he might not.  Defensively, nothing will make Larnach faster or improve his arm.  In theory, Wallner can learn to take better routes. 

I find it a bit odd that some seem to think Larnach is having a decent year.  Playing mostly DH, he has an OPS+ of 96.  Wallner is at 105.  Wallner also has more WAR despite missing a month on the IL.

Either can be traded if the return is right.  Wallner should bring back more.  I find it a little odd that some actually prefer Larnach as a player though.  

[Mike Sixel]

11 minutes ago, Trov said:

I have long said that corner OF that are not elite at something are a dime a dozen. Larnach is average so he has almost no value. He is completely a replacement level player.  If another team sees any value in him in a trade you jump at it.  He should be a DFA/non-tender next year for us.  He has never developed into the hitter we expected.  The only value he offers, which is almost none, is that he hits slightly better against right handers than average.  That is to be expected, but he is not elite at it.  So even a platoon fit is not there. If a team is offering any level of an actual prospect made the trade in a heart beat. 

He's about 100x better than what Philly has had for three years now, and they are competing for WS. He absolutely has value to them. How much value is the question....You want to DFA a 1.5-2 win player (which he was last year)? Unreal.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

Another example team I thought of is Atlanta. They’re having a more disappointing season than us, but they’re too heavily invested in their core to give up on 2026. They’re struggling big time to find an answer in LF (Verdugo, Kelenic, Eli White all struggling, Profar suspended). They have a young C in Drake Baldwin that’s doing well in his first 71 MLB games, and blocked by Sean Murphy who’s signed through 2028. 

Maybe we can put a package together where it benefits both teams who want to continue trying to win in 2026? 

Baldwin is WAY too valuable for the Braves to give him up for a marginal outfielder (or a package of marginal talents). This year, Baldwin has already put up a MLB 2.3 WAR (only Buxton on the Twins is better than that). He also has a 131 OPS+ and is 24 years old. It would take a lot to pry him loose.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, arby58 said:

Baldwin is WAY too valuable for the Braves to give him up for a marginal outfielder (or a package of marginal talents). This year, Baldwin has already put up a MLB 2.3 WAR (only Buxton on the Twins is better than that). He also has a 131 OPS+ and is 24 years old. It would take a lot to pry him loose.

Ya, I hadn't realized he'd been that good. They won't be dealing him.....oh well. 

[Vanimal46]

1 minute ago, arby58 said:

Baldwin is WAY too valuable for the Braves to give him up for a marginal outfielder (or a package of marginal talents). This year, Baldwin has already put up a MLB 2.3 WAR (only Buxton on the Twins is better than that). He also has a 131 OPS+ and is 24 years old. It would take a lot to pry him loose.

The trade package on our side would include more than just Larnach for him, agreed. My rough draft would be Jax and Larnach for Baldwin. 

[arby58]

Just now, Vanimal46 said:

The trade package on our side would include more than just Larnach for him, agreed. My rough draft would be Jax and Larnach for Baldwin. 

That would do it for me, and it seems about fair in terms of value. IF we're giving up Jax, this is probably the best the Twins will get - a young MLB ready catcher.

[jorgenswest]

Of the at least thirteen players that are on the TD trading block, where would you prioritize energy spent and leadership involvement in finding a good deal for Larnach?

The 13 I have seen…

Coulombe, Bader, Castro, Paddack, Vazquez, France, Ryan, Duran, Jax, Martin, Julien, Miranda, Larnach.

[TwinsDr2021]

59 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's about 100x better than what Philly has had for three years now, and they are competing for WS. He absolutely has value to them. How much value is the question....You want to DFA a 1.5-2 win player (which he was last year)? Unreal.

we can't have articles complaining about payroll and then ignore what Larnach costs for what he returns, we (mostly probably me) can't complain about the 40 man and then continue to clog it up with marginal or slightly average players. We can't talk about getting the young guys up then say marginal or average players can't be let go. If Jenkins (or Erod) is starting next year which IMO one absolutely should be, what is the point of having Larnach on the team? (platoon dh?) Which is why I said trade him for whatever or include him with others to get a better return. 

Or the can do what they did with Polanco pick up a big salary and pay pennies on the dollar in a trade later. 

[arby58]

9 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Of the at least thirteen players that are on the TD trading block, where would you prioritize energy spent and leadership involvement in finding a good deal for Larnach?

The 13 I have seen…

Coulombe, Bader, Castro, Paddack, Vazquez, France, Ryan, Duran, Jax, Martin, Julien, Miranda, Larnach.

Yeah, the juice isn't worth the squeeze on that last four, maybe Larnach more than the other three, but not much more.

[TwinsDr2021]

6 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Of the at least thirteen players that are on the TD trading block, where would you prioritize energy spent and leadership involvement in finding a good deal for Larnach?

The 13 I have seen…

Coulombe, Bader, Castro, Paddack, Vazquez, France, Ryan, Duran, Jax, Martin, Julien, Miranda, Larnach.

IMO, probably 3rd, behind Jax and Duran. the FA to be should be just handling incoming calls. Martin, Miranda and Julien are a waste of time unless they can be packaged with another trade. I am not spending any time on Ryan, because the only way I am trading him is if somebody comes calling with an offer I couldn't refuse. 

IMO Larnach shouldn't be on the team next year and I don't want to lose him for nothing. 

[jorgenswest]

18 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

IMO, probably 3rd, behind Jax and Duran. the FA to be should be just handling incoming calls. Martin, Miranda and Julien are a waste of time unless they can be packaged with another trade. I am not spending any time on Ryan, because the only way I am trading him is if somebody comes calling with an offer I couldn't refuse. 

IMO Larnach shouldn't be on the team next year and I don't want to lose him for nothing. 

I would prioritize differently. I would focus on the expiring assets that I can’t trade after the deadline. To me it is a good deadline if they get good deals for those six and use the two months  remaining to give a shot to players in AAA.

Larnach would be way down on my list and not a priority.

[TwinsDr2021]

2 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I would prioritize differently. I would focus on the expiring assets that I can’t trade after the deadline. To me it is a good deadline if they get good deals for those six and us the two months  remaining to give a shot to players in AAA.

Larnach would be way down on my list and not a priority.

I agree on priority of trading players, but the question was - prioritize energy spent and leadership involvement

And if the Twins are combing though all rosters and their minor league teams looking for their FA to be, that IMO seems counter productive, combing though the minor league teams that come calling is a better use of time IMO. With Jax and Duran I would assume every team in contention and even larger market teams will call, so I am spending my time looking at players in their minors that I would be willing to trade for. But if only one team comes calling for France then you take what they offer or spend a few minutes coming up with a counter. 

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I agree on priority of trading players, but the question was - prioritize energy spent and leadership involvement

And if the Twins are combing though all rosters and their minor league teams looking for their FA to be, that IMO seems counter productive, combing though the minor league teams that come calling is a better use of time IMO. With Jax and Duran I would assume every team in contention and even larger market teams will call, so I am spending my time looking at players in their minors that I would be willing to trade for. But if only one team comes calling for France then you take what they offer or spend a few minutes coming up with a counter. 

I'm going to guess here.....and maybe when gleeman and the geek talked to levine they heard this, but I'm guessing every single player on every single team (majors and minors) is in a database the TWins have, and they aren't "looking at hte players" other than maybe having some scouts eyeball them a bit. I just think, and I could be wrong, they already know everything there is to publicly know about every player out there for the most part.

[jorgenswest]

17 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm going to guess here.....and maybe when gleeman and the geek talked to levine they heard this, but I'm guessing every single player on every single team (majors and minors) is in a database the TWins have, and they aren't "looking at hte players" other than maybe having some scouts eyeball them a bit. I just think, and I could be wrong, they already know everything there is to publicly know about every player out there for the most part.

I was thinking about that conversation also. The take that stuck with me was how many conversations it took to make a deal. It was my take on that podcast that led me to my push today for focus on these deals. They have a high number of expiring contracts and getting the best they can on those six would be a great accomplishment.

They also need a catcher and those six alone seem unlikely to bring back that catcher.  Maybe they have a catcher they believe in that is not ranked in top 100s but can be acquired for one of these six. It could be that adding Larnach to a Coulombe deal might push to a catcher that they like. It could be that they need to deal Jax to get that catcher. I don’t think Larnach on his own will get that catcher. I suppose he might be worth Luis Campusano if the Twins felt they could get the talent out of the one time top catching prospect.

I would put all of the energy into trading the six and I will add the focus of acquiring a catcher. Duran and Ryan were not in the top 100 and were acquired in deals for players with expiring contracts. The clock is ticking in those six assets. The others can be dealt in the future.