Could the Twins Trade Joe Ryan? 6 Suitors to Watch if Minnesota Sells High on Their Ace

[Riverbrian]

13 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

1st, I don't trust Falvey to maximize the return we'd need to get in a trade

I think they can get a decent return. 

Where I doubt this front office... is the ability to develop what they get back in return. 

 

[LambchoP]

Please no. It WOULD be waiving the white flag, for this year and next. Joe is the kind of controllable young arm we need to target, not deal away. Fan morale is at an all time low. They trade Ryan or any other long term core players and they might lose the support of the fans for good.....

[SF Twins Fan]

If the Twins trade Ryan, the return needs to be quality over quantity, and it needs to be for players who have spent significant time at either AA or AAA.  I'd say a minimum of three top 100 players who are currently at AA or AAA.

If teams aren't willing to give that up for a top of the rotation pitcher with basically three years of control, then they need to hold until him.

[P Meyer]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

If the Twins trade Joe Ryan. Don't stop there... sell everyone. Then kindly exit your office, shut the lights off and don't return. 

This front office is not the front office that should be in charge of handling an influx of youth. 

I agree. I have not seen the ability of this franchise to transition top prospects from the minor league system into productive players at the MLB level. Until they do that, selling for a bevy of picks is not a viable strategy.

 

Now, if trading Ryan nets you young, productive, and cost controlled MLB players, it needs to be considered. That said, it's not like the Twins are stocked with dominant young pitching.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Personally, Joe Ryan is the absolute last player on the Twins that I would consider training (with Buxton a close second). Trading Ryan likely says we’re going to tear it all down.  We have spent years (decades?) in pursuit of high-end pitching and we have that in Joe Ryan. Trading him away puts us right back in the “we need a playoff caliber starter” category.  Might we get a haul in return?  Yes, perhaps, but those will be prospects, some of which will be 2 or 3 years away from the majors and some of which won’t even make it to the majors.  So we would make the trade to hope we found another player as good as the one we traded away, while wasting some years waiting for that to possibly happen. Some are suggesting that we do such a trade for a return of an outfielder or a first baseman.  Seriously?  I’m not picking up the phone or the mail if it doesn’t include a catcher and a starting pitcher that both have high upside and are major league ready (think Joe Ryan when he was acquired).  And that’s just my starting point.  A few years back we traded a guy named Johan Santana (a year later in his contract situation than Ryan) for a return that didn’t amount to much.  

Some have advocated for the big tear down, but I would maintain that they need to be careful what they wish for.  First of all a tear down means that the team is terrible, probably 100 loss terrible, for at least 1 or 2 years.  Then, assuming we have found our next core group, the team starts to improve.  In year’s 3 through 5, we might improve enough to be in a similar place to where we are right now.  I don’t see a scenario where flushing away the next five years just to have another chance that is similar to what we currently have.  Yes, I know that there are teams that have been more successful, like Houston.  But they are the exception, not the rule, AND they were pretty bad when they went that route anyway.  

I have frequently said that any and all players are always available, but the return would need to be certain success to trade the most valuable commodity in baseball - high quality starting pitching - and Joe Ryan is definitely that.  

[P Meyer]

30 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Correa and Buxton are under contract through 2028. Buxton's contract is moveable... Correa's is not. Lopez is under contract until 2027. 

My guess is that this front office would like to keep going forward chasing what they can catch while those contracts are in place. My guess is that they don't want to trade Joe Ryan so the can continue the dream. 

In order to retain Joe Ryan... they will have to:

A. Move money elsewhere... perhaps multiple players instead of one player. If you are moving players to clear financial space... Joe Ryan will bring back the biggest return. Perhaps more than the multiple players you are moving for the same financial space. 

B. Convince the Pohlads that they need another 20 million added to payroll in 2026. 

C. Convince the new owner that another 20 million added to payroll could make him a hero in Minnesota. 

Options B and C will be a bad look for a newly appointed President/President of Baseball Operations that I'm sure understood the financial limitations when he took the job.

Option A... Will be bad look to the fans who create revenue and it will make winning baseball games harder in 2026. Because whatever money they move to free up cash... they will go from 7 roster spots to fill to 9 roster spots to fill and that will be like shoveling snow while it's still heavily snowing. 

Man, you are hitting all of the points today. I did not think about the arbitration increase and what that does to payroll. That does have to be factored in.

 

The solution to all of this would be to trade Correa, but that doesn't seem feasible with his no trade clause. 

[Riverbrian]

45 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Buxton's contract is moveable...

Let me correct this. Moveable from a value standpoint. Buxton could get quite a bit in return in regards to the money owed.  

However... I believe that Buxton has a no trade contract and that likely suggests that he would require a significant raise from the team acquiring him in order for him to waive the no trade. That's why they put no trade into deals... they do it for the leverage.  

Once he gets a significant raise in order to agree to a deal... the contract isn't as valuable and the return lessens significantly. Buxton at 15 million plus bonuses gets back a lot. Buxton at 30 million AAV doesn't return as much and it gets worse if Buxton's agent demands additional years in the negotiation. 

Unless... Buxton is willing to give up that leverage, that pay raise, just to escape Minnesota. I don't get the impression that Buxton wants to leave Minnesota. I have no information but I think he would be happy to retire a Twin and I would love to see Byron retire a Twin with a forthcoming statue in the plaza. 

[P Meyer]

I also agree that Duran isn't enough. He is scheduled for 8 mil next year and then arb through 2028. He is closer to 28 than 29 and is basically a few months younger than Ryan. You really only get 1 extra year of a position player with him. I just don't see the benefit of a 1 for 1 trade for Duran.

[Rufus]

The Twins may not be contenders this season, but I think they have players to build on.  Ryan, Buxton, Duran, Jax. Lee, Lewis and others.  They would be foolish to trade any of their key pieces.  Badar has a metal option for next year at a reasonable price and they should try to keep him, the same with Coulombe.  If they can trade some of their fringe players for players that can enhance their core they should do that.  But a full blown fire sale is not needed.

[Post-Concussive Blues]

Joe Ryan is Joe Ryan, but a couple of prospects could be anything. Maybe even another Joe Ryan!

[P Meyer]

1 minute ago, Rufus said:

The Twins may not be contenders this season, but I think they have players to build on.  Ryan, Buxton, Duran, Jax. Lee, Lewis and others.  They would be foolish to trade any of their key pieces.  Badar has a metal option for next year at a reasonable price and they should try to keep him, the same with Coulombe.  If they can trade some of their fringe players for players that can enhance their core they should do that.  But a full blown fire sale is not needed.

You are correct the Twins have a few players to build around, but the question is do they have the money to keep them while building the roster. As Riverbrian said, if you have to cut loose multiple players to afford Ryan's arb raise, is that really building the roster? I'm not advocating for the Twins penny pinching, but it is a real thing.

[Riverbrian]

6 minutes ago, P Meyer said:

Man, you are hitting all of the points today. I did not think about the arbitration increase and what that does to payroll. That does have to be factored in.

 

The solution to all of this would be to trade Correa, but that doesn't seem feasible with his no trade clause. 

You can't really trade Correa... At best... you can give him away. He signed with Minnesota because it was the best offer he could get. Nobody else would pay more. This alone eliminates almost all trade value. Nobody wants to take on the back half of a big contract because those are typically the worst years and especially when the player has under performed in two of the three years in the front half of the contract. 

To get any value back in a trade for Correa. The Twins will have to include large amounts of cash to make the contract palatable for the other team and we can't afford the cash.

The other option would be to provide an additional player instead of the cash they would need to include. That additional player or players would have to have pretty high value and be painful to lose. Much like the Twins did with the Josh Donaldson trade. The Yankees really wanted IKF so they agreed to absorb the Donaldson contract. All in all... in order to get out of the Donaldson deal. It cost them Mitch Garver and Ben Rortvedt getting back Urshela and Sanchez. Could that be done... I suppose. It would be helpful if Correa wasn't sitting here with an OPS under .700.  

[P Meyer]

7 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

You can't really trade Correa... At best... you can give him away. He signed with Minnesota because it was the best offer he could get. Nobody else would pay more. This alone eliminates almost all trade value. Nobody wants to take on the back half of a big contract because those are typically the worst years and especially when the player has under performed in two of the three years in the front half of the contract. 

To get any value back in a trade for Correa. The Twins will have to include large amounts of cash to make the contract palatable for the other team and we can't afford the cash.

The other option would be to provide an additional player instead of the cash they would need to include. That additional player or players would have to have pretty high value and be painful to lose. Much like the Twins did with the Josh Donaldson trade. The Yankees really wanted IKF so they agreed to absorb the Donaldson contract. All in all... in order to get out of the Donaldson deal. It cost them Mitch Garver and Ben Rortvedt getting back Urshela and Sanchez. Could that be done... I suppose. It would be helpful if Correa wasn't sitting here with an OPS under .700.  

In the unlikely scenario they trade Correa I don't think the return for the Twins is players, it's in payroll flexibility. They would have to give Correa away to a team that cares less about the impact of adding his contract.

 

If I am the Twins, I would give him away if it meant an ability to retain the few high performing players we have. I liked the move when the Twins did it, but it didn't work to the highest degree, and now he is a sunk cost.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

23 minutes ago, P Meyer said:

Man, you are hitting all of the points today. I did not think about the arbitration increase and what that does to payroll. That does have to be factored in.

 

The solution to all of this would be to trade Correa, but that doesn't seem feasible with his no trade clause. 

Certainly Joe Ryan will get a good raise this year and another one for the final year of his controllability, but he will still be quite affordable next year (certainly not replaceable for the money) and the following year he will still be making less than Pablo currently makes (unless he wins the Cy Young award).  Joe’s arbitration raises are a factor, but not a major one.  

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

The team that is loaded at the top of the Top 100 prospects (using MLB.com) is, in fact, Boston. They have Roman Anthony ranked #1 and Marcelo Mayer #6 as well as numbers 40 and 100. I don't think Ryan for Duran is a trade the Twins would make. According to the Trade Simulator, Ryan has a surplus value of 70.1 vs. Duran's 40.8. Ryan is also working on a WAR this year of 3.8 versus Duran's 2.2. Starting pitching is at a premium - there would have to be more to this trade.

The player who aligns better, trade simulator-wise is outfielder Roman Anthony, the #1 prospect. His surplus according to the Trade Simulator is 70.7. He is now up with the Red Sox and actually has a slightly better OPS than Duran. I doubt you could get both Anthony and #6 prospect Mayer, as Mayer has a projected trade surplus of 54.8. Maybe they'd throw in Arias (a 2B/SS ranked #40 at the A+ level) who has a trade surplus of 22.1, given he is at least a couple years away. The problem here is Anthony is another left handed batter, not exactly the Twins need at the moment.

A team that might match up, prospect-wise, is Philadelphia. Looking at what the Twins might need, they could offer back the #10 prospect, Andrew Painter, a RHP at AAA. He fits the Twins profile of a tall (6'7") pitcher ala Bailey Ober, and has a projected trade surplus of 49.4. They also have the #22 prospect, SS (sort of a need position for the Twins) Aidan Miller, who is at AA and has a projected surplus of 33.7. If they would give up both of those, it might be worthwhile. They also have a catcher ranked #63 in A-ball with a simulator value of 17.9. Maybe the Twins throw in somebody like Brandon Winokur (surplus value of 8.2) to help balance it out.

 

Painter and two more prospects. The author didn't even mention Philly, and it's the only team I'm dealing with for Ryan. They have to get a top, top, pitcher back, plus. 

I wouldn't do it, but if they get Painter and two more good prospects, it's likely a win, but not for next year....

Most of the other guys mentioned just aren't that interesting. 

[BillyBallLives]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

The Twins have painted themselves into a corner. 

Agreed...

The Twins have painted themselves into a corner — and the brushstroke that did it was the Carlos Correa contract. You’d think they’d have learned after the Josh Donaldson ploy went over like a lead balloon. Falvey managed to Houdini his way out of that deal, but there’s no slipping the cuffs on C4.

And now we’re watching the fallout: fans are wondering if Joe Ryan — one of the few younger, cost-controlled arms with upside — might be on the block. Why? Because the Correa contract is clogging the payroll like a drain full of hair. They’re not spending more, so to improve, they may have to trade from their already thin rotation.

I’m not an anti-Correa guy. He’s good for the team. It wasn’t his fault the Twins were foolish enough to pay him $200 million over six years on an aging player two other teams passed on. The problem is, the Twins are a franchise that can’t miss on a big contract without massive repercussions — and this one already has ripple effects, to the point of trading away a potential ace in his prime !?

 

[farmerguychris]

If they trade Ryan, its going to signify to the fans that this isn't a team you will want to watch much for the next 2-3 years until the prospects make it to the majors.  That alone makes me reluctant to trade him unless like another poster said - we can get 3 top 100 prospects for him.

[tony&rodney]

I don't think payroll budget will be an issue next year. There will likely be less veteran types around unless on France or Coulombe level contracts. I do not expect the Twins to pay reserves or back-end starters the salaries received by Paddack, Vazquez, Castro, or Bader. Even with raises, the Twins should be around the same number, roughly $147M, next year. The issue will be if ownership wants to get below $120M. The ownership-front office discussions should be ongoing and this may influence trade discussions. Correa and Buxton have no trade contracts. I don't see them going anywhere. Ryan is the topic here because of his All Star status, but players like Jeffers, Lewis, Larnach, Lopez, Ober, Duran, and Jax come into the conversation if payroll is an issue. In any event the Twins do have options if they seek to make some changes to the roster. Change happens and it can be a positive thing.

[DJL44]

22 minutes ago, P Meyer said:

You are correct the Twins have a few players to build around, but the question is do they have the money to keep them while building the roster. As Riverbrian said, if you have to cut loose multiple players to afford Ryan's arb raise, is that really building the roster? I'm not advocating for the Twins penny pinching, but it is a real thing.

Joe Ryan's first year of arbitration was $3M. Raises are rarely more than double. Zac Gallen got CYA votes in three different seasons and his arb pay has been $5M/$10M/$13.5M.

Do the Twins really need to cut loose multiple players so they can afford to pay Joe Ryan $7M next season and $14M the season after that?

[Wedman13]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

If the Twins trade Joe Ryan. Don't stop there... sell everyone. Then kindly exit your office, shut the lights off and don't return. 

This front office is not the front office that should be in charge of handling an influx of youth. 

100% agree.  If you trade Ryan, it's a complete rebuild.  Button out, Duran out, Jax out, Jeffers out, Castro out. (Not sure anyone else 26+ on the roster has much value)

I would not trade Ryan and his contract for anything less than the top 3 prospects of any team in the league.

[Mike Sixel]

10 minutes ago, BillyBallLives said:

Agreed...

The Twins have painted themselves into a corner — and the brushstroke that did it was the Carlos Correa contract. You’d think they’d have learned after the Josh Donaldson ploy went over like a lead balloon. Falvey managed to Houdini his way out of that deal, but there’s no slipping the cuffs on C4.

And now we’re watching the fallout: fans are wondering if Joe Ryan — one of the few younger, cost-controlled arms with upside — might be on the block. Why? Because the Correa contract is clogging the payroll like a drain full of hair. They’re not spending more, so to improve, they may have to trade from their already thin rotation.

I’m not an anti-Correa guy. He’s good for the team. It wasn’t his fault the Twins were foolish enough to pay him $200 million over six years on an aging player two other teams passed on. The problem is, the Twins are a franchise that can’t miss on a big contract without massive repercussions — and this one already has ripple effects, to the point of trading away a potential ace in his prime !?

 

I think it's likely ownership lowered payroll targets after the signing, so I'm not sure this is on falvey? That said, it's the biggest issue for the team. CC has to hit.... Has to. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Wedman13 said:

100% agree.  If you trade Ryan, it's a complete rebuild.  Button out, Duran out, Jax out, Jeffers out, Castro out. (Not sure anyone else 26+ on the roster has much value)

I would not trade Ryan and his contract for anything less than the top 3 prospects of any team in the league.

I'm not sure it's a complete rebuild. But this team might miss the playoffs for the fourth time in five years, so maybe a modest rebuild is the best way forward. But I really think it's all about CC and Lewis, as they're stuck with them...

[AKTwinsFan]

Being broke and not having many other options is why this won't happen. Maybe within his last season or two. I honestly would look to extend him. Pablo, Ober or Paddack seem more likely.

[Riverbrian]

8 minutes ago, BillyBallLives said:

Agreed...

The Twins have painted themselves into a corner — and the brushstroke that did it was the Carlos Correa contract. You’d think they’d have learned after the Josh Donaldson ploy went over like a lead balloon. Falvey managed to Houdini his way out of that deal, but there’s no slipping the cuffs on C4.

And now we’re watching the fallout: fans are wondering if Joe Ryan — one of the few younger, cost-controlled arms with upside — might be on the block. Why? Because the Correa contract is clogging the payroll like a drain full of hair. They’re not spending more, so to improve, they may have to trade from their already thin rotation.

I’m not an anti-Correa guy. He’s good for the team. It wasn’t his fault the Twins were foolish enough to pay him $200 million over six years on an aging player two other teams passed on. The problem is, the Twins are a franchise that can’t miss on a big contract without massive repercussions — and this one already has ripple effects, to the point of trading away a potential ace in his prime !?

 

Correa at that dollar figure is certainly going to have consequences and I do agree that Twins can't afford to swing and miss on deals like that. Only the top ten money spenders can afford to swing and miss... that's what money does... it allows you to absorb the bad contract and carry on. 

However... I'm not ready to call Correa a swing and miss. He may have not lived to the value of the contract but as you said... he still provides value and he's good for the team. 

I also agree that 34 million off the books would save multiple players that we would like to keep... players like Ryan.

I still contend that the biggest financial problem the Twins have is coming from the lack of players making the minimum. The difference between what the Twins are producing from the farm and the numbers the Tigers, Brewers are producing could be around 50 million in available payroll to spend. If you didn't waste that money... You could keep Correa and Ryan, Duran, Jax and still build more aggressively then Ty France on a cheap deal.  

[Wedman13]

2 hours ago, arby58 said:

The team that is loaded at the top of the Top 100 prospects (using MLB.com) is, in fact, Boston. They have Roman Anthony ranked #1 and Marcelo Mayer #6 as well as numbers 40 and 100. I don't think Ryan for Duran is a trade the Twins would make. According to the Trade Simulator, Ryan has a surplus value of 70.1 vs. Duran's 40.8. Ryan is also working on a WAR this year of 3.8 versus Duran's 2.2. Starting pitching is at a premium - there would have to be more to this trade.

The player who aligns better, trade simulator-wise is outfielder Roman Anthony, the #1 prospect. His surplus according to the Trade Simulator is 70.7. He is now up with the Red Sox and actually has a slightly better OPS than Duran. I doubt you could get both Anthony and #6 prospect Mayer, as Mayer has a projected trade surplus of 54.8. Maybe they'd throw in Arias (a 2B/SS ranked #40 at the A+ level) who has a trade surplus of 22.1, given he is at least a couple years away. The problem here is Anthony is another left handed batter, not exactly the Twins need at the moment.

A team that might match up, prospect-wise, is Philadelphia. Looking at what the Twins might need, they could offer back the #10 prospect, Andrew Painter, a RHP at AAA. He fits the Twins profile of a tall (6'7") pitcher ala Bailey Ober, and has a projected trade surplus of 49.4. They also have the #22 prospect, SS (sort of a need position for the Twins) Aidan Miller, who is at AA and has a projected surplus of 33.7. If they would give up both of those, it might be worthwhile. They also have a catcher ranked #63 in A-ball with a simulator value of 17.9. Maybe the Twins throw in somebody like Brandon Winokur (surplus value of 8.2) to help balance it out.

 

Awesome analysis.  But Falvey holds the chips.  If Anthony and Mayer aren't both included, no deal.

[Western SD Fan]

I pretty much reference Sportrac's multi-year contract page any time I want to discuss potential trades and how this will affect the team in future years.  The link is here:  Minnesota Twins Multi-Year Table

As @Riverbrian has so thoroughly worked through, the FO has painted themselves into a corner.  I don't see the current ownership raising payroll while they are trying to sell the team.  I've been pleasantly surprised this season that ownership has the payroll where it actually is now considering all offseason it was reported that payroll had to be cut down to near $130M.

As a team, we currently have too many players in the "wait-and-see" category: Royce Lewis, Larnach, Wallner, SWR, Ober, Festa, Matthews (when back from IL), Keaschall, Julien, and Miranda.  Then there's the next group of prospects expected to graduate in the next two years:  Eeles, Jenkins, Adams, Cory Lewis, Prielipp, Raya, and E-Rod.  That seems to be more players than positions available.  Any trade of Ryan for high-end prospects better be position specific, with catcher and future starters being the biggest needs.  I think you can quietly have one of Larnach, Wallner, or Royce Lewis pick up a 1B glove with the expectation that they will work on it in the offseason rather than what Boston did with Devers this season or what the Twins did last fall in trying to force Lewis to play 2B.

Ultimately, I don't see a Joe Ryan trade netting us what we need to truly get into a rebuild mode nor retooling, just a lesser version of what we have been experiencing the past few years.  Ryan still has two more years of arbitration left and we can re-evaluate his value and potential value in the future.  IMHO, trading Pablo Lopez in the offseason or next year would probably be the smarter move with the intention of taking that money and trying to sign Joe Ryan to an extension.  If they do move Ryan in the near future, the FO is lucky that they have spent so little in marketing him to the fans that the average fan won't miss him. 😑

 

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1,  Lets look at Joe.  Very, very good pitcher for the Twins.  The trend has been for him to do very well through about June/July,  get injured or wear out and significantly regress the remainder of the year.  His career OPS+  in the first half of the season is 91,   the 2nd half is 120.    This is a multiple year trend, so we have to expect regression even this year.  

2.  They only trade him if absolutely blown away and that they know they are winning the trade.  Ultimately they have to replace a pitcher,  have enough pitchers to replace him with and upgrade the prospects or roster or both significantly.   

3. Say what you will about Falvey, I do think trade wise he does very well in valuations and trade returns for the most part.   

Joe is not a primary trade chip.  I would not like to see him traded,  don't expect to see him traded, but if he is I anticipate the trade return will be extremely good.  I still anticipate a bit of a win streak taking us out of the  sell side of the equation.  

[BillyBallLives]

9 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I think it's likely ownership lowered payroll targets after the signing, so I'm not sure this is on falvey? That said, it's the biggest issue for the team. CC has to hit.... Has to. 

You might be right — but shouldn’t we expect ownership and Falvey to be on the same page? You don’t greenlight a $200 million contract and then yank the payroll rug out from under the front office. Did anyone even think through what Correa’s deal would do to the broader payroll picture? Because if they did, it sure doesn’t look like it.

It’s like buying a Corvette and parking it in the street because you can’t afford the garage.

Now, if C4 starts hitting again — and he could — Falvey might end up looking like a genius. I’ll give him that. Being a GM isn’t easy, especially in Minnesota, where there’s no room for error. But this one’s on both the front office and ownership. They chose splash over strategy — and now they’re paying for it.

[Wedman13]

15 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not sure it's a complete rebuild. But this team might miss the playoffs for the fourth time in five years, so maybe a modest rebuild is the best way forward. But I really think it's all about CC and Lewis, as they're stuck with them...

Honestly don't know what to Lewis.  Seems like the talent is there but a brutal last 12 months (when healthy).  Selling this low - which I know you didn't suggest - wouldn't make sense.

[BillyBallLives]

18 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I still contend that the biggest financial problem the Twins have is coming from the lack of players making the minimum. The difference between what the Twins are producing from the farm and the numbers the Tigers, Brewers are producing could be around 50 million in available payroll to spend. If you didn't waste that money...

That’s a great point — I’ve honestly never thought about it that way. The hidden cost of a weak farm system isn’t just in wins — it’s in wasted payroll flexibility. When you’re not getting production from league-minimum guys, you’re forced to fill holes with overpriced free agents or risky bounce-back bets.

Meanwhile, teams like the Brewers and Tigers are churning out cheap, serviceable talent, which gives them $40–50 million of wiggle room the Twins just don’t have.